Paris-Nice 2017, 5th-12th March

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I love Henao, but he keeps missing the winning moves. He shouldn't have let Yates go (or should have chased earlier). This stage was tailored made for him.

He did everything he could. His man chased Yates but couldn't bring him back. He could've respond himself, but Alaphilippe and others would follow, he would lost Nieve and someone else would attack and sneak away just like Yates did. On top of that he would have been more tired on the final Mur, and maybe he wouldn't be able to rode away from Alaphilippe. So I think he rode good, the main goal was to distance Alaphilippe and gain some time, and he did just that. He made a *** in his armour, and tomorrow he might crack him big time

Absolutely. It was smart by Yates to go, as he has no chance in that group if it comes to the bottom together, and it was smart for Henao to wait as cracking Alaphillipe is his primary job.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

he's never been very explosive

Really, Contador? I mean, not having the best sprint or being a killer on muritos is one thing, but few riders have ever been as adept at cambios de ritmo (rhythm changes) as Alberto Contador. He even said as much recently when talking about his chances at the Tour. I consider him almost the very definition of an explosive stage racer.

Of course, amongst GT climbers he's rather explosive. But on a finish like today, he was racing against puncheurs, which he's never been.

 

[rick james]

Just caught up with the race......when Yates attacked Henao was taking a bite to eat I wonder if that's why he never went with him.....but that final climb Henao looked crazy strong, hoping for lot of attacks tomorrow

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

Contador looks old

Oleg said it last year.

Bring on Huynao.

I'd say he is doing great for a 34-year old, 10 years after winning his first Grand Tour.
He's far from a "limping duck" which must bother Oleg greatly. And Trek probably pay him half of what Oleg spent on him yearly!

Of course he does. I'm just joking a bit.
The thing is that people are really focused on him, because of the things he did in his prime. They judge him on his 2009 form.

Interesting to see that Alaphilippe had his problems, when Henao jumped away. Wonder what will happen tomorrow. I'm expecting LRP to attack early to get the stage win. Things will get interesting, if somebody from the GC guys can keep his pace.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

he's never been very explosive

Really, Contador? I mean, not having the best sprint or being a killer on muritos is one thing, but few riders have ever been as adept at cambios de ritmo (rhythm changes) as Alberto Contador. He even said as much recently when talking about his chances at the Tour. I consider him almost the very definition of an explosive stage racer.

Of course, amongst GT climbers he's rather explosive. But on a finish like today, he was racing against puncheurs, which he's never been.

Exactly. The ability to change pace on climbs without blowing up is a skill that's quite close to ability as a puncheur but is not identical. Contador can, at least when he's at his best, completely destroy the rhythm of anyone who tries to climb with him, but that doesn't mean he's very often going to beat Henao, Martin, Alaphillipe in a mostly anaerobic all out charge.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Interesting to see that Alaphilippe had his problems, when Henao jumped away. Wonder what will happen tomorrow. I'm expecting LRP to attack early to get the stage win. Things will get interesting, if somebody from the GC guys can keep his pace.

I couldn't watch the stage but from what I'm reading it seems likely to me that Alaphilippe will crack at some point tomorrow and cede the yellow jersey to Henao.
Expect Porte to win the stage, he seems to be the strongest climber and the final climb should suit him better than Henao etc.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

he's never been very explosive

Really, Contador? I mean, not having the best sprint or being a killer on muritos is one thing, but few riders have ever been as adept at cambios de ritmo (rhythm changes) as Alberto Contador. He even said as much recently when talking about his chances at the Tour. I consider him almost the very definition of an explosive stage racer.

Of course, amongst GT climbers he's rather explosive. But on a finish like today, he was racing against puncheurs, which he's never been.

Yeah, like Richie Porte?! He was bad today, in form Contador would drop everyone bar Henao, and maybe Dan Martin on that Mur. I remember him dropping Valverde on similar Muros (well maybe little longer ones). Do you think Valverde would've been dropped by Porte on a finish like today's? Look, he's maybe still recovering from that illness, or simply isn't in great shape, but this performance today certainly isn't a normal one for in shape Contador!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Whatever you say. I prefer to wait for a climb that suits him before I start drawing conclusions.

 

[rick james]

now before tomorrow comes, are the climbs tomorrow long enough and steep enough for Bertie, we don't want anyone moaning like last year when we had people moaning about the false flats of Paris - Nice 2016

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

now before tomorrow comes, are the climbs tomorrow long enough and steep enough for Bertie, we don't want anyone moaning like last year when we had people moaning about the false flats of Paris - Nice 2016

Col Saint-Martin

Col de la Couillole

That's a proper HC climb and the highest mountain ever in this race.
Best time on Strava is 51:56 by Rudy Molard.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

now before tomorrow comes, are the climbs tomorrow long enough and steep enough for Bertie, we don't want anyone moaning like last year when we had people moaning about the false flats of Paris - Nice 2016

I'd say ideal for him would be about 8km at 8%, so they're not perfect for him but much better than last year. In good form he should be able to create gaps here, maybe not vs Porte though.

 

[carton]

BTW, fun fact: two sets of cousins and one set of brothers as the peloton whittled down to about 20 riders, on a day where the stage winner's brother kept his top 20 place in the concurrent WorldTour stage race.

 

[DNP-Old]

Henao was eleven seconds quicker in Fayence than Bananito Betancur was in 2014 (3:34 vs 3:45).

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Henao was a beast today. He will be very hard to beat in FW.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Henao was a beast today. He will be very hard to beat in FW.

Every year, many fans say that henao will win fleche but when comes the moment of truth, he is nowhere to be seen against valverde

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re: Re:

Henao was a beast today. He will be very hard to beat in FW.

Every year, many fans say that henao will win fleche but when comes the moment of truth, he is nowhere to be seen against valverde

Right...

https://www.procyclingstats.com/mob/race.php?id=116791

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

Henao was a beast today. He will be very hard to beat in FW.

Every year, many fans say that henao will win fleche but when comes the moment of truth, he is nowhere to be seen against valverde

Probably because he has only ridden it once after 2013, when he wasn't in his optimal form because he only had two races under his belt after breaking his knee in Suiza the year prior.

 

[Samamba]

Gallopin & Gorka will crack. Alaphilippe will hold on to the podium, but not to the first place. Henao to crush everyone.

 

[Mr.White]

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It has always been mystery to me how Purito only managed to win La Fléche one time.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Henao was eleven seconds quicker in Fayence than Bananito Betancur was in 2014 (3:34 vs 3:45).

Not surprising given how shitty that field was. And today was even after a much harder stage.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

 

[Valv.Piti]

FW will likely also be a different race if Porte attacked in the bottom like today, then it basically would be a w/kg dragrace (like it was in TdF when Froomey won), but Valverde's last 3 wins in Fléche has been him outmanoeuvring everyone tactically, riding at the front at a decently high tempo and beating everyone up like juniors in the sprint. For anything different to happen you need Purito of 2012 or Gilbert of 2011 to explode up the climb, then it suddenly would be interesting.

I dno if Henao can do it, but its the only way to win it.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

It has always been mystery to me how Purito only managed to win La Fléche one time.

In 2013 it was mostly because of team tactics/numbers game, him being there allowed his teammate Dani Moreno to attack and in 2014 crashes ruined his Ardennes classics campaign, so he had a bit of luck.
Still, not winning more than one FW is probably not in the top 3 of the biggest regrets that his fans have.
Back to Paris-Nice, from what I've seen today Henao should be able to give Alaphilippe a ton of problems, if he's able to drop him on that kind of finish he should be able to gain a lot of time on a hard MTF.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Winning Fleche is a totally different "ball game", then doing good in stages like this. Henao was always great in steep finales, like today's, or in Pais Vasco, but he never hits the right form in Fleche, except maybe 2013. He was unlucky though, for the last couple of years. But the point is, to win Fleche, a rider like him must drop all the fast finishers (Valverde, Alaphilippe, Martin, etc) before last 200m, and that's not an easy task at all because all specialists are in their prime, and if Valverde shows up in form of last 2-3 years, well good luck with that! Even the king of the steep hills, Grande Joaquim Rodriguez managed to win this race only once, and I don't think Henao is on his level yet.

Interesting take.

Mostly because in my mind I never distinguish any quality in the finale of FW and I usually look at it like a 3 minute W/kg drag race. Never really considered to what degree the more peak end ability affected the dynamics of the climb. I have no idea how power output varies on a climb like that and I'd like to see

It's what makes Flèche special. There are loads of steep hill finishes, but only one where all of the specialists who can be are there, are all in peak form and are all deadly serious about winning. That said, if he ever gets to race it in top shape, I do think Henao has a similar sort of chance as Martin or Alaphillipe, the small group behind Valverde. Maybe slightly less as he probably has to have a gap at the end or be outsprinted, but certainly a real chance of a sort that few have.

Flèche gives puncheur bragging rights, like Champs Elysee for the sprinters.