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Paris-Nice 2022 (03/06 - 03/13)

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A peak Wout would get absolutely crushed by Bernal, Roglic, and Pogacar, and probably Remco on Turini.

Wout is not competing against those on a legit HC climb
Weird to put Bernal in the list of guys who would absolutely crush him after what happened in TA last year. Bernal is far less superior in 1 week stage races than Pogacar and Roglic. Remco is also just speculation before he really shows it on long climbs on the highest level.
 
Turini is a great climb, but perhaps a bit too hard for this race.
I feel that an easier MTF might lead to a more open race.
Agreed. Both PN and TA should have HTFs like Mende or similar rather than these cat 1-climbs like Turini and Prati di Tivo. Change the Turini stage with a stage like that, and this would have been pretty close to a perfect PN route. A Stage like the Fayence stage in 2017 would been a good substitute.
 
A peak Wout would get absolutely crushed by Bernal, Roglic, and Pogacar, and probably Remco on Turini.

Wout is not competing against those on a legit HC climb
Roglic is his teammate so I am not cfactoring him in, Pogacar is not slated to ride Paris-Nice and I think he can arrive at the foot of the Turini with a lead of over a minute on GC vs Bernal. Given he only lost 45 seconds on a very good Pogacar on Prati di Tivo in Tirreno-Adriatico last year I don't see Bernal giving out a heavier beating.
 
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It's a shame they go with the unipuerto 'queen' stage but little to complain otherwise, there's some strong designs and everyone will have at least one stage that suits them. The return of Col de la Mure - in a very interesting stage - is an especially nice surprise and the stage after it is a good tribute to the season openers.
On Cyclingpro yesterday there was an interview of the race director celebrating how good it is having a Turini unipuerto.

Anyway, like I always say, PN and Tirreno should ditch the MTF and go back to their classic routes.
 
On Cyclingpro yesterday there was an interview of the race director celebrating how good it is having a Turini unipuerto.

Anyway, like I always say, PN and Tirreno should ditch the MTF and go back to their classic routes.
What decade gets to represent the “classic” time period? Should we go back to a sprint stage in the end?
 
Agreed. Both PN and TA should have HTFs like Mende or similar rather than these cat 1-climbs like Turini and Prati di Tivo. Change the Turini stage with a stage like that, and this would have been pretty close to a perfect PN route. A Stage like the Fayence stage in 2017 would been a good substitute.
And even if they wanted to go with a more climber-friendly race they could always go with a shorter MTF like Mont Faron or a descent finish off a longer climb like the final stage of Tour du Var off Col de la Madone last year. Heck, Turini itself would be fine in the race if it wasn't the MTF.
 
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What decade gets to represent the “classic” time period? Should we go back to a sprint stage in the end?
You don't have to go that much back, until ~15 years ago the MTFs were a rarity in both races. For Paris-Nice let's say the routes could be defined classic until 2007 because even having Mende, Mont Faron or Eze ITT is far from being a climbers friendly route, then they suddenly thrown in Ventoux in 2008, Montagne de Lure in 2009 and 2013 and from 2015 onwards there has always been the big MTF.
 
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Exactly. They can't afford to survive into the future having more winners of the calibre of Freire or Van Avermaet (TA) and Bananito or Soler (PN) without being compared to BinckBank or Poland.
An alternative would be to have the Eze TT back, but as the penultimate stage (with a difficult final stage as has been the norm in the past two decades).

Saturday: Nice -> Col d'Èze (ITT)


Sunday: Nice -> Nice
 
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Roglic is his teammate so I am not cfactoring him in, Pogacar is not slated to ride Paris-Nice and I think he can arrive at the foot of the Turini with a lead of over a minute on GC vs Bernal. Given he only lost 45 seconds on a very good Pogacar on Prati di Tivo in Tirreno-Adriatico last year I don't see Bernal giving out a heavier beating.
Obviously Roglic does need "factoring in" because if Bernal attacks (& when he attacks), Roglic will go with him - whether WvA can follow or not.

If it's indeed true & WvA is doing Paris-Nice this year, I can see Jumbo using the race as a sort of live action exercise for the Tour, with Rog going for yellow & WvA green.

But the problem remains the same: Roglic needs the bonus seconds from sprint finishes, just as WvA does. So that automatically creates a conflict of interests on certain stages (namely punchy finishes).
 
Obviously Roglic does need "factoring in" because if Bernal attacks (& when he attacks), Roglic will go with him - whether WvA can follow or not.

If it's indeed true & WvA is doing Paris-Nice this year, I can see Jumbo using the race as a sort of live action exercise for the Tour, with Rog going for yellow & WvA green.

But the problem remains the same: Roglic needs the bonus seconds from sprint finishes, just as WvA does. So that automatically creates a conflict of interests on certain stages (namely punchy finishes).
If Van Aert sprints, he takes away bonis from both Roglic and Bernal. If he doesn't sprint he doesn't from either of them. It would only really matter if he can finish in between them, giving Roglic full bonis and pushing Bernal down, which seems risky. Or in case Bernal wasn't going to finish in the bonis anyway.
 
Back in 70s and 80s, T-A was largely a sprinters race with endless group finishes after flat stages. P-N was the harder and more prestigious at that time. T-A has definitely benefitted in reputation as it became more challenging and attracted more standard GC candidates.
I agree with this. I never cared for Tirreno. hec I didn't know it was several days. To me it was like some Italian race with some sprinters in it. I only paid attention to Paris-Nice. Well, at least to some extent. Races back then at the beginning of the year were warm up for the GT GC contenders and good preparation for the other classics. As for the Colombians in those races, the dudes would have to live in Europe all year round to be in those races. They were non-existent. With the globalization of the sport so many things have changed. Like they wanted to make it more attractive for everyone. So one of the first things they did was add more mountains. I never would have dreamed of a Quintana type rider winning Tirreno twice. That was basically impossible back in the 80's. I think that both races changed for the better. Now it serves every rider purpose. IMHO.
 

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