Paris-Nice 2023, March 5-12

[Red Rick]

With Jonas willing to work it was going to be 2v1 into a headwind on a 7% climb, in which case Pog would have to kill himself to keep a gap so easing up and waiting for the sprint is probably the better option. And - to me at least - it definitely looked like he eased up so I think from that point he was always going to wait for the sprint.

Vingegaard basically showed he couldn't go much harder. If Pogacar can go hard enough it's just him vs Gaudu, with Pogacar having the slight benefit of mild moto drafting.

 

[nightowl]

Vingegaard basically showed he couldn't go much harder. If Pogacar can go hard enough it's just him vs Gaudu, with Pogacar having the slight benefit of mild moto drafting.

I don’t think he could’ve known that for sure on his initial attack, but that is a good point once it was just him and Gaudu inside the last couple kilometers. I was surprised he didn’t have at least one more dig as he was looked like he closing Gaudu with ease but maybe he decided to wait for the sprint. That or he wasn’t able to attack and had the ultimate poker face going on

 

[Red Rick]

I don’t think he could’ve known that for sure on his initial attack, but that is a good point once it was just him and Gaudu inside the last couple kilometers. I was surprised he didn’t have at least one more dig as he was looked like he closing Gaudu with ease but maybe he decided to wait for the sprint. That or he wasn’t able to attack and had the ultimate poker face going on

I think that once Gaudu attacked if Pogacar was confident he could drop him he would have.

Ultimately though waiting for the sprint is also a simple solution. Near guaranteed win.

Today reminded me of his MTF wins in the 2021 Tour. Couldn't drop them but won the sprints convincingly.

 

[YavorD]

Who are "we"? - I for one never said recovery was Pogacar's strength.

It's one of the two areas, where Vingaard is better than Pogacar, as was evident in the Tour both last year and the year before.

You can't really use a 1 week race as an indicator, as week 3 is where the effect is maximized.

That being said, this year's Tour is better for Pogacar, because the route is lighter week 3 than it was last year.... so Vingegaard realistically only has the ITT and the stage to Courchevel to make up significant time.

Most of the forum used to put emphasis on Pog's 3 week based on what he did on the penultimate stages in 2019 and 2020. I do agree with you that these are the stages where V (seems to) have advantage, but up until last year's Tour, 3rd week recovery used to be one of the Pog's main strengths (as if he needed any more).

 

[Taxus4a]

I couldnt watch the stage, I have just warched a summary.

Acording to that, I dindt see Pogacar stronger than Vingegard today, nor the oposite, but I cant understand why Jumbo waste the team, and why Vingegard was cacthing Carper
I cant understand why Jumbo did so well at le Tour and so bad days like this...Or maybe I miss something

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

I couldnt watch the stage, I have just warched a summary.

Acording to that, I dindt see Pogacar stronger than Vingegard today, nor the oposite, but I cant understand why Jumbo waste the team, and why Vingegard was cacthing Carper
I cant understand why Jumbo did so well at le Tour and so bad days like this...Or maybe I miss something

Vingegaard isn’t in peak form, Jumbo just went all out for him. Nothing bad from Jumbo other than Vingegaard trying to catch Harper.

 

[Taxus4a]

Vingegaard isn’t in peak form, Jumbo just went all out for him. Nothing bad from Jumbo other than Vingegaard trying to catch Harper.

That was to work for your rival as Poggy was on his wheel. I dont know if was just 10 secoonds, 1 mintes or 5 minutes, but more tghan 10 seconds is a BIG mistake...I think he just want the stage, but even for that was a mistake.

 

[Nick2413]

Most of the forum used to put emphasis on Pog's 3 week based on what he did on the penultimate stages in 2019 and 2020. I do agree with you that these are the stages where V (seems to) have advantage, but up until last year's Tour, 3rd week recovery used to be one of the Pog's main strengths (as if he needed any more).

True. 2022 and even 2021 were a bit of a reverse, he took most of his time in the first week and a half. My theory is he has great recovery but maybe has recently started out guns blazing and has a bit less left toward the end.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

What J-V did made no sense for this race. Maybe they viewed it as a rehearsal for later races? Like how mid-2010's Sky would do their train thing in a race like Andalucia for multiple stages just to lead out Valverde or another opponent for a sprint. But Foss alone riding a pace everyone could easily follow for 7 kms? What was the point of that? Congrats on the double podium on stage and GC, I guess?

 

[Lequack]

Tarling DNF after a crash

Josh Tarling about his crash, luckily nothing broken

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634640415759400962

View: https://twitter.com/INEOSGrenadiers/status/1634640415759400962?s=20

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations to Tadej Pogačar for winning the queen stage.

Foss really went into red today. Good to see he is in such shape. As for the trio of leaders. Pogi more or less had it under control.

 

[Boehmand]

I couldnt watch the stage, I have just warched a summary.

Acording to that, I dindt see Pogacar stronger than Vingegard today, nor the oposite, but I cant understand why Jumbo waste the team, and why Vingegard was cacthing Carper
I cant understand why Jumbo did so well at le Tour and so bad days like this...Or maybe I miss something

Vingegaard was the only climber they brought, probably because they wanted to kill UAE on the TTT.

When that didn't happen, Vingegaard was basically screwed going into the mountain stages - and Pogacar is just better in spring, something umbo will have to analyse why, to see if they can prepare Vingegaard better (they know how to do it with Roglic).

The real proof in the pudding is July however... if Vingegaard wins the Tour, nobody really cares if the sacrifice is a weaker spring.

 

[Boehmand]

Most of the forum used to put emphasis on Pog's 3 week based on what he did on the penultimate stages in 2019 and 2020. I do agree with you that these are the stages where V (seems to) have advantage, but up until last year's Tour, 3rd week recovery used to be one of the Pog's main strengths (as if he needed any more).

Well I never voiced that opinion. I think Pogacar's strengths are his raw and explosive power, his supreme confidence, and his ability to go into red without burning out for longer than anyone else.

As for Vingegaard, I've seen Jumbo staff mention in interviews, that he loses a lot less power (and his heart rate is lower) than anyone else above 2.000 metres, and that he maintains more power and endurance in week 3, than any other rider they have ever seen.

They identified those two areas as where Vingegaard could beat Pogacar.. and it's why they dropped the hammer on Pogacar the first time the Tour got above 2.000 meters last year.

It just doesn't work in a 1 week race, unless it's chuck full of climbs above 2.000 metres, because fatigue is not an issue for Pogacar until week 3.

 

[Oldermanish]

Again, it's great to see some young US riders in the GC. Mateo is having a great early season for a relative new rider.

 

[gunara]

and why Vingegard was cacthing Carper

his fisherman instinct, can't help it maybe

 

[gregrowlerson]

Good to see the French riders doing a little better, but I wouldn't get too carried away about Gaudu's form; I don't think it's too dissimilar to O'Connor being quite competitive against Primoz and Jonas in Dauphne last year.

I'd still rate Hindley and Mas as better tour podium chances. Maybe Landa too (though that could be bias).

 

[Nick2413]

Well I never voiced that opinion. I think Pogacar's strengths are his raw and explosive power, his supreme confidence, and his ability to go into red without burning out for longer than anyone else.

As for Vingegaard, I've seen Jumbo staff mention in interviews, that he loses a lot less power (and his heart rate is lower) than anyone else above 2.000 metres, and that he maintains more power and endurance in week 3, than any other rider they have ever seen.

They identified those two areas as where Vingegaard could beat Pogacar.. and it's why they dropped the hammer on Pogacar the first time the Tour got above 2.000 meters last year.

It just doesn't work in a 1 week race, unless it's chuck full of climbs above 2.000 metres, because fatigue is not an issue for Pogacar until week 3.

I agree with you, but have never understood this phenomenon.

What is the scientific explanation of why altitude affects different riders differently? We’re all aware of how the physiology of altitude and oxygen metabolism work. But the same principles that apply to performance at altitude also apply everywhere else, the decrease in performance should be a ratio that is the same for everyone. 10% less oxygen is the same for everyone. If a rider has higher output on a long climb at sea level then why wouldn’t they also do better than others at altitude? Can anyone answer this?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well you asked me why he attacked, I gave you multiple reasons (which he also gave in the interview after). If you're convinced that he only attacked because he wanted to put a minute into them on a 7% climb than fair enough but I don't think him not doing that is saying too much about his current form.

I never said that he wanted to put a minute, just distance them for good. Normally I would maybe agree with you but it's not consistent with the fact that he didn't want to ride hard and cooperate when Gaudu accelerated in the closing kms and dropped Vinge. Then they were 2 vs 1 and Pog could've distanced Vinge more if he felt confident in his power. That's why I think he didn't have another gear in him yesterday (not only because he got caught).

I agree with you, but have never understood this phenomenon.

What is the scientific explanation of why altitude affects different riders differently? We’re all aware of how the physiology of altitude and oxygen metabolism work. But the same principles that apply to performance at altitude also apply everywhere else, the decrease in performance should be a ratio that is the same for everyone. 10% less oxygen is the same for everyone. If a rider has higher output on a long climb at sea level then why wouldn’t they also do better than others at altitude? Can anyone answer this?

One's power is a result of many factors forming kinda chain i.e. lung capacity, cardiac output, oxygen transport in vessels and oxygen utilization (metabolism, muscles). The resulting power is usually limited by one of the factors.

1) For example lung capacity is rarely a limit (normally lungs can absorb oxygen at the higher rate than other parts of this chain can transport/utilize it) but at a higher elevation the importance of these factors can change and for example a person with higher lung capacity can be more efficient (as lungs oxygen absorbtion isn't anymore higher than capacities of other parts of this chain). This was just a theoretical example showing that various factors influencing power change their importance in varying conditions (I suppose this effect of elevation is very strong above altitude of HC cols).

2) Also blood parameters are important and people who live at altitude are better used to it (oxygen transport in a strong part of their "chain"). Blood doping obviously helps to improve this part of the chain.

 

[Red Rick]

I never said that he wanted to put a minute, just distance them for good. Normally I would maybe agree with you but it's not consistent with the fact that he didn't want to ride hard and cooperate when Gaudu accelerated in the closing kms and dropped Vinge. Then they were 2 vs 1 and Pog could've distanced Vinge more if he felt confident in his power. That's why I think he didn't have another gear in him yesterday (not only because he got caught).



One's power is a result of many factors forming kinda chain i.e. lung capacity, cardiac output, oxygen transport in vessels and oxygen utilization (metabolism, muscles). The resulting power is usually limited by one of the factors.

1) For example lung capacity is rarely a limit (normally lungs can absorb oxygen at the higher rate than other parts of this chain can transport/utilize it) but at a higher elevation the importance of these factors can change and for example a person with higher lung capacity can be more efficient (as lungs oxygen absorbtion isn't anymore higher than capacities of other parts of this chain). This was just a theoretical example showing that various factors influencing power change their importance in varying conditions (I suppose this effect of elevation is very strong above altitude of HC cols).

2) Also blood parameters are important and people who live at altitude are better used to it (oxygen transport in a strong part of their "chain"). Blood doping obviously helps to improve this part of the chain.

That is all true. I think I once checked the numbers of W/kg on high altitude vs low altitude and they really didn't line up with the air pressure at said altitude. So the W/kg fall off slower than the air pressure.

But I also think altitude tends to simply favor the better climbers because it is harder overall and recovering from efforts in a valley at 1500m is harder than in a valley at 500m. At altitude you have less drafting because lower air density, and you climb slower which also means the draft is lower.

For Vingegaard, I think Jumbo may overstate his recovery and high altitude components a bit in that it completely ignores how brutally strong he was on Plateau de Solaison in the Dauphine, as well as that he was already matching Pogacar on Planche de Belles Filles on low altitude. Secondly, when Vingegaard dropped Pogacar on the Ventoux, it was the 2nd week and Ventoux is moderate altitude. He got beaten on the Portet which is higher and 3rd week, and he got dropped on Tignes which is also 2000m+.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

That is all true. I think I once checked the numbers of W/kg on high altitude vs low altitude and they really didn't line up with the air pressure at said altitude. So the W/kg fall off slower than the air pressure.

But I also think altitude tends to simply favor the better climbers because it is harder overall and recovering from efforts in a valley at 1500m is harder than in a valley at 500m. At altitude you have less drafting because lower air density, and you climb slower which also means the draft is lower.

Good point. Higher altitute effect is similar to gradient steepening when it comes to drag/gravity force importance.

For Vingegaard, I think Jumbo may overstate his recovery and high altitude components a bit in that it completely ignores how brutally strong he was on Plateau de Solaison in the Dauphine, as well as that he was already matching Pogacar on Planche de Belles Filles on low altitude. Secondly, when Vingegaard dropped Pogacar on the Ventoux, it was the 2nd week and Ventoux is moderate altitude. He got beaten on the Portet which is higher and 3rd week, and he got dropped on Tignes which is also 2000m+.

I'm starting to think that the best tactics for Pog against peak Vinge can be sticking to his wheel and hunting for gains at the very end of stages (when he's clearly faster). But first we have to see what kind of form they will bring to the Tour. I'm still not ruling out that Pog will be as trim as ever at the Tour. He doesn't look like that yet but his targeted classics are still ahead plus keeping very-low weight for a long time is not good.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I agree with you, but have never understood this phenomenon.

What is the scientific explanation of why altitude affects different riders differently? We’re all aware of how the physiology of altitude and oxygen metabolism work. But the same principles that apply to performance at altitude also apply everywhere else, the decrease in performance should be a ratio that is the same for everyone. 10% less oxygen is the same for everyone. If a rider has higher output on a long climb at sea level then why wouldn’t they also do better than others at altitude? Can anyone answer this?

It‘s also well-known in mountaineering, a second hobby of mine, for decades:

People „acclimatize“ differently. There are world class mountaineers who avoid the very highest peaks because they learned they don‘t acclimatize very well.

It‘s the same with road cycling in higher and high altitude (above 2000/2500m)… It can be trained/improved itself, but genetics play a role.

Miguel Angel Lopez probably climbed these 2300m+ mountains with a similar (or the same) haematocrit as Pog and Rog, but he (MAL) seems to have really good genetics to ride his bike very fast on climbs in high altitudes of European tarmac roads. He‘s gifted by nature, here.

 

[Netserk]

I would almost go as far as to say that weather matters more than climb characteristics when it comes to Pogi and Vingegaard.

 

[Netserk]

Tratnik and Küng in the break.

 

[Netserk]

Firstcycling reports that there are only 19 riders in the peloton. They are on Côte de Berre les Alpes.

 

[Netserk]

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