Paris-Nice 2023, March 5-12

[Nick2413]

It was nice to see Vingegaard attack, even if it didn’t work out. If he was as confident as he looked it’s surprising he misgauged himself so much. I don’t buy that trying too hard to follow was the only reason he lost so much time, he just wasn’t at his best today.

 

[Poursuivant]

Biggest disappointment is Simon Philip Yates.

I think we all expect pogacar to beat vinge in spring at cold weather

Saving himself for yellow in July

 

[Poursuivant]

The guy got dropped by Mäder, the same one that was supposed to receive a mercy victory...

I think Vingegaard definitely blew himself up trying to follow Pogacar, you could see he was struggling when he couldn’t quite make it back.

He’ll be closer on Saturday I think.

 

[ice&fire]

I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't watch. What's happened? Was it cold enough to be an advantage for Pog but not cold enough to call a cancellation?

 

[Red Rick]

Sure, overreacting regarding the performance isn't called for but IMO it does raise a very interesting question about the TdF 2022 & Granon in particular. Basically reopening the debate from last year, i.e. (which I'll paraphrase) "was Jonas Vingegaard much better than Pog intrinsically speaking in July, or did Pog blow himself up with tactical mistakes?"

I think the people who say Jumbo needs two leaders to beat Pog in the TdF now have a valid point. I also wonder what Jumbo's internal data showed regarding the relative strength of Vingegaard versus Pogacar right here & now in early 2023. I mean what we saw on the road was a classic example of a rider going hard with an attack before blowing up, something he didn't even need to do because he was ahead in GC.

If Vingegaard was on the fence regarding his form, he probably would have played it safe (i.e. if Jumbo believed he was not ready yet he would have been more conservative). But that's not what happened, i.e. he went in all guns blazing with a massive attack (almost with what appeared like his own 'yolo' reason).

It's like he thought he had way more power in his legs than he did.

Not really. I think today says nothing about Granon. It only says Vingegaards numbers in Gran Camino weren't that important. Pogacar once again dominated a finish where the W/kg estimates were low.

 

[Eeslliw]

It's like he thought he had way more power in his legs than he did.

Maybe he forgot it's March and not July.

 

[Pippo_San]

I dare say that today FINALLY a Jumbo-Borg finally conquered me. Finally I saw some crazy and hot-headed attitude from Vingegaard, not only cool and calculated style. This is cycling at its finest! Did that attack backfired on Vingo? Who cares! I want to see more of this *** from him!!! I was already a Pogi fan, but if the dane keeps going like this...I'm aboard the danish train too!

 

[Rackham]

Not really. I think today says nothing about Granon. It only says Vingegaards numbers in Gran Camino weren't that important. Pogacar once again dominated a finish where the W/kg estimates were low.

I don't know. For me it says Jumbo will struggle to repeat 2022 TdF style victory without the two-pronged attacks tactic they used on Granon. That's why IMO today has significance. I mean that's the whole point, i.e. from what we know of their race schedule they're going to the Tour with Jonas V as number one alone. We haven't even seen Rog test himself either (we don't know his post-operation level or whether he'd even be capable of being good enough come July). So I'm not critiquing Jumbo's planning here, I'm just noting this is the reality for July as well: Vinge versus Pog, with no ace up the sleeve like on Granon.

So as 'sole leader' Vingegaard went in toe-to-toe & tested himself against Pogacar on equal footing. The result speaks for itself.

 

[Valv.Piti]

What the...

That attack must have really backfired, but then again, its maybe not that surprising. This is peak Pogi in his element. Whats more surprising is the little frenchman being able to follow.

Will be a fine race! I need to watch this stage first though.

 

[Red Rick]

I dare say that today FINALLY a Jumbo-Borg finally conquered me. Finally I saw some crazy and hot-headed attitude from Vingegaard, not only cool and calculated style. This is cycling at its finest! Did that attack backfired on Vingo? Who cares! I want to see more of this *** from him!!! I was already a Pogi fan, but if the dane keeps going like this...I'm aboard the danish train too!

What you thought No Risk No Glory attack for no reason and crash in descent was calculated?

 

[repre]

What the...

That attack must have really backfired, but then again, its maybe not that surprising. This is peak Pogi in his element. Whats more surprising is the little frenchman being able to follow.

Will be a fine race! I need to watch this stage first though.

Frenchman wasn't following, he attacked on his terms while VG and Pogi looked at each other. When they attacked for first time he didn't move a bit

 

[Taxus4a]

As far as I warched today, both Pogacar and Vingegard are similar strong. If Pogacar drop Vingegard in the long climb, for sure the slovenian is now clearly stronger, If Pogacard just keep the wheel if would be difficult to know

 

[Taxus4a]

I think Vingegaard definitely blew himself up trying to follow Pogacar, you could see he was struggling when he couldn’t quite make it back.

He’ll be closer on Saturday I think.

I dont think closer, it will be stronger, is a better climb for him, today he was close to close the gap in the second attack..Later it was over, as Poggy was that day in the Tour when he did the same mistake at Galibier.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Vingegaard plus team can possibly beat Pogacar minus team. But Vingegaard minus team can't. And couldn't have in the Tour.

 

[Nick2413]

How Vingegaard fares on stage 7 will tell us whether this was a fluke blow-up or if his form really is down. Frankly it’s probably better for him if his form is just down.

 

[RedheadDane]

Whats more surprising is the little frenchman being able to follow.

Frenchman wasn't following, he attacked on his terms while VG and Pogi looked at each other.

Frenchman got a name, and he's not that little! In fact, he's not even the littlest Frenchman on his team.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So Pogi wins the first battle of mutants, congrats! There are no warm feeling between those guys - when Vinge attacked Pogi didn't want to cooperate (even though he had a lot in tank), maybe he was remembering what happened on stage 1. Pog's acceleration a few minutes later was ridiculous - he was passing those guys in front like a motorbike. Vinge clearly paid for trying to match this acceleration instead of riding his own tempo. Cold weather also helped Pog, who is now on pole position to win Paris Nice on his first try. Obviously July is still far away and it's clear that Vinge is a different rider then.

 

[theyoungest]

Sure, overreacting regarding the performance isn't called for but IMO it does raise a very interesting question about the TdF 2022 & Granon in particular. Basically reopening the debate from last year, i.e. (which I'll paraphrase) "was Jonas Vingegaard much better than Pog intrinsically speaking in July, or did Pog blow himself up with tactical mistakes?"

I think the people who say Jumbo needs two leaders to beat Pog in the TdF now have a valid point. I also wonder what Jumbo's internal data showed regarding the relative strength of Vingegaard versus Pogacar right here & now in early 2023. I mean what we saw on the road was a classic example of a rider going hard with an attack before blowing up, something he didn't even need to do because he was ahead in GC.

If Vingegaard was on the fence regarding his form, he probably would have played it safe (i.e. if Jumbo believed he was not ready yet he would have been more conservative). But that's not what happened, i.e. he went in all guns blazing with a massive attack (almost with what appeared like his own 'yolo' reason).

It's like he thought he had way more power in his legs than he did.

And still it's exactly what you're doing, i.e. overreacting. A one week race in the cold of March is always going to suit Pogacar better than Vingegaard. I didn't expect this to be a real battle, actually I was surprised to see Vingegaard going so well and riding so aggressively, until he didn't, of course. But if he had dropped Pogacar here it would have been a massive surprise, now it's the other way around... probably a little disappointing for Vingegaard, but not that shocking. It's certainly a confidence booster for Pogi (as if he needed that).

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Frenchman got a name, and he's not that little! In fact, he's not even the littlest Frenchman on his team.

When Madouas says "say hello to my little friend", he's talking about Gaudu.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Sure, overreacting regarding the performance isn't called for but IMO it does raise a very interesting question about the TdF 2022 & Granon in particular. Basically reopening the debate from last year, i.e. (which I'll paraphrase) "was Jonas Vingegaard much better than Pog intrinsically speaking in July, or did Pog blow himself up with tactical mistakes?"

It's a known fact that Vinge is a different beast in July, just compare his level in 2021&2022 Tours with other races. Remember last year's Tirreno? Pogacar crushed him and everybody else on Carpegna gaining 1'20'' in 4 km. This year Vinge is actually better than last year at this time. While Pogacar is probably at a similar level.

 

[Lequack]

Didn't manage to watch the live race, just seen the replay.

And wow what a stage finish, at first it seemed with Vinge attack that they will both ride away into the sunset. But it was not be, Pog really played the waiting game good, not reacting to Gaudu and then just joined with a humongous attack. Of course this kind of climb and the weather really suits him. I think Vingegaard does much better in heat, which there should be plenty in July.

Some pics

 

[RedheadDane]

When Madouas says "say hello to my little friend", he's talking about Gaudu.

I am fundamentally opposed to referring to someone who's 1.72 as "little."

 

[Elos Anjos]

Didn't manage to watch the live race, just seen the replay.

And wow what a stage finish, at first it seemed with Vinge attack that they will both ride away into the sunset. But it was not be, Pog really played the waiting game good, not reacting to Gaudu and then just joined with a humongous attack. Of course this kind of climb and the weather really suits him. I think Vingegaard does much better in heat, which there should be plenty in July.

Some pics

Notwithstanding the discussion between Vingo and Pogi's level - and I reckon this stage has not settled anything - there's one thing I tend everyone would agree on: Pogacar has uncanny self and race reading abilities. Save for the mistake in Flanders 2022 and Tour 2022 - and that was mind boggling on how JBV set that trap - he is a very smart rider.

 

[Rackham]

It's a known fact that Vinge is a different beast in July, just compare his level in 2021&2022 Tours with other races. Remember last year's Tirreno? Pogacar crushed him and everybody else on Carpegna gaining 1'20'' in 4 km. This year Vinge is actually better than last year at this time. While Pogacar is probably at a similar level.

Vingegaard in Itzulia in early April 2021 was quite good, actually. Just saying.

There's no point IMO lessening Pog's win here by creating a rather arbitrary point about Vingegaard being a monster in July whilst Pog is good all year round.

I remember back in spring 2021 many predicted it would be Pogacar who'd be the July monster when both Roglič & Vingegaard beat him in that aforementioned Basque Country Itzulia. Now the narrative is about Vingegaard being the July man.

Basically I think in this instance, Vingegaard simply went on the offensive to show off his strength in Paris-Nice & lost pretty spectacularly. He himself clearly didn't think he'd be a lot worse than Pogacar, or else he wouldn't have tried that attack the way he did.

 

[Lequack]

Highlights of today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633539286048858133

View: https://twitter.com/ParisNice/status/1633539286048858133