Paris-Nice 2023, March 5-12

[Nick2413]

Feels weird that my main takeaway from this is that Pogacar was underwhelming.

I got the vibe he was less concerned with taking time and just knew he would get the win. The chasing riders did stay closer than expected though.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

If Pogacar had done altitude training and was at peak form he would win by 1 minute, he's doing slowly build for Ronde and Liege

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Feels weird that my main takeaway from this is that Pogacar was underwhelming.

Yup, kinda. To me the outcome is maybe not that surprising (I mean a few seconds between top guys at the end) but the fact that Pog attacked and got caught is.

 

[nightowl]

Yup, kinda. To me the outcome is maybe not that surprising (I mean a few seconds between top guys at the end) but the fact that Pog attacked and got caught is.

They were really slow on the climb so the headwind must’ve been stiff. Probably explains at least some of the negative racing

 

[Red Rick]

They were really slow on the climb so the headwind must’ve been stiff. Probably explains at least some of the negative racing

Well Pogacar did get a gap and enough distance that draft didn't matter and he still got brought back by Vingegaard

 

[Monsi]

What a sprint by Pogacar there. 7 victories in 12 race days is just crazy.

Impressive ride by Gaudu as well.

I think the headwind on the climb today really made it difficult. Maybe that's why Pogacar couldn't stick with his solo attack. Once his gap was just stabilizing at 5 seconds, he probably dialed down his pace. He knew he still had the fastest sprint, anyway.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

After what we've just seen in Tirreno there's no other option: Teddy has to win his 3rd stage tomorrow. And I think he'll do it on his home roads.

 

[Red Rick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634555820246532096

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1634555820246532096

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@Red Rick Holly molly, the decline is faster than expected.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yes, and whats why we can't give two *** about comparisons like that.

Honestly, Jonas and Pogi didnt seem two levels above everyone as I thought they would. Both were good, but not great today I think (or Gaudu has just improved a lot).

Tomorrow is a classic stage each and every year, and Jonas will try, why not? Same for Gaudu, but this is Pogacar terrain and he will most likely be better uphill, downhill, on the flat and in the sprint, so thats a hard one.

 

[Boehmand]

@Red Rick you were right. Vingegaard is stronger this year than in the same time of last year at TA.

True. However I think the lesson for him also is, to not race spring races against Pogacar... if he wants wins.

So I think we will see him do the opposite race (P-N/T-A) of Pogacar.

We also all have to remember, that where Vingegaard really shines, is in thin air above 2.000 metres, and in week 3 of a GT.

I think in this year's Tour, we'll see Pogacar being ahead by several minutes on the second rest day, with week 3 being Vingegaard clawing back time.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, and whats why we can't give two *** about comparisons like that.

Honestly, Jonas and Pogi didnt seem two levels above everyone as I thought they would. Both were good, but not great today I think (or Gaudu has just improved a lot).

Tomorrow is a classic stage each and every year, and Jonas will try, why not? Same for Gaudu, but this is Pogacar terrain and he will most likely be better uphill, downhill, on the flat and in the sprint, so thats a hard one.

I definitely think Gaudu has improved.

At the same time, I'm a bit curious that Vingegaard actually pulled Pogacar back, cause you can't blame that on wind. So to me it seems like the gap between a 40 minute climb and a 15 minute climb was even bigger than I expected, although the weather was actually nice today.

It kidna makes me think that if Tirreno last year had had a sunny nice mountain finish on Terminillo or something Pogacar probably doesn't delete everyone like he did on Carpegna.

 

[YavorD]

Pogacar.

I think in this year's Tour, we'll see Pogacar being ahead by several minutes on the second rest day, with week 3 being Vingegaard clawing back time

That's how fast we go from "Recovery is Pogacar's strength" to "Vingo's gonna win time in week 3.
I think that PN showed that Pogacar learned a lesson from last year. Don't go all out against Vingo, so the slovenian may be really tough to break in the Tour.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Whenever anyone does anything, if they don't win, they get criticised. Always safer to just never do anything.

Until you get criticized for doing nothing.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I definitely think Gaudu has improved.

At the same time, I'm a bit curious that Vingegaard actually pulled Pogacar back, cause you can't blame that on wind. So to me it seems like the gap between a 40 minute climb and a 15 minute climb was even bigger than I expected, although the weather was actually nice today.

It kidna makes me think that if Tirreno last year had had a sunny nice mountain finish on Terminillo or something Pogacar probably doesn't delete everyone like he did on Carpegna.

He has, but how much? Thats hard to tell, but today he seemed pretty much on par with Jonas and Pogi (slightly better than Jonas, slightly worse than Pogi).

Maybe hes the favorite for the 3rd spot this year (I'd still pick Mas above him, but Im a fanboy after all).

 

[SHAD0W93]

Easy win for Pogacar, although I do believe he should be given some wins to other riders. More beneficial if he ever needs help

Easier to do when bonus seconds aren’t in play, especially with those close behind you.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I definitely think Gaudu has improved.

At the same time, I'm a bit curious that Vingegaard actually pulled Pogacar back, cause you can't blame that on wind. So to me it seems like the gap between a 40 minute climb and a 15 minute climb was even bigger than I expected, although the weather was actually nice today.

It kidna makes me think that if Tirreno last year had had a sunny nice mountain finish on Terminillo or something Pogacar probably doesn't delete everyone like he did on Carpegna.

Don't think Pogacar went into the red on his attack. He's smart, he knows that if two good climbers start relaying behind him on a 7% climb he's at a solid disadvantage and why risk anything given his GC lead? Carpegna is shorter and steeper, definitely more suited for a solo.
That being said, I'm surprised he didn't attack again in the last 3km.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Don't think Pogacar went into the red on his attack. He's smart, he knows that if two good climbers start relaying behind him on a 7% climb he's at a solid disadvantage and why risk anything given his GC lead? Carpegna is shorter and steeper, definitely more suited for a solo.
That being said, I'm surprised he didn't attack again in the last 3km.

So why attacking in the first place? It's obvious you need a very intense effort to distance a top climber like Vingegaard. He attacked hard but simply couldn't keep a superior pace. At some point maybe he slowed down but I don't believe that he was limiting himself during his initial surge. It's not what you do when you want to make a statement against your arch-rival.

 

[Salvarani]

I definitely think Gaudu has improved.

At the same time, I'm a bit curious that Vingegaard actually pulled Pogacar back, cause you can't blame that on wind. So to me it seems like the gap between a 40 minute climb and a 15 minute climb was even bigger than I expected, although the weather was actually nice today.

It kidna makes me think that if Tirreno last year had had a sunny nice mountain finish on Terminillo or something Pogacar probably doesn't delete everyone like he did on Carpegna.

Has Gaudu improved or is he just in the same form as in 2021? Where he had a great season.

 

[Boehmand]

That's how fast we go from "Recovery is Pogacar's strength" to "Vingo's gonna win time in week 3.
I think that PN showed that Pogacar learned a lesson from last year. Don't go all out against Vingo, so the slovenian may be really tough to break in the Tour.

Who are "we"? - I for one never said recovery was Pogacar's strength.

It's one of the two areas, where Vingaard is better than Pogacar, as was evident in the Tour both last year and the year before.

You can't really use a 1 week race as an indicator, as week 3 is where the effect is maximized.

That being said, this year's Tour is better for Pogacar, because the route is lighter week 3 than it was last year.... so Vingegaard realistically only has the ITT and the stage to Courchevel to make up significant time.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

So why attacking in the first place? It's obvious you need a very intense effort to distance a top climber like Vingegaard. He attacked hard but simply couldn't keep a superior pace. At some point maybe he slowed down but I don't believe that he was limiting himself during his initial surge. It's not what you do when you want to make a statement against your arch-rival.

To reduce the group from a size where everyone will attack you to just the two top rivals. And obviously to test if his competitors would ride tempo or look at each others refusing to pull (which has happened in the past). Once he saw that Vingegaard was commited to pull him back and that Gaudu was also ready to take pulls he saw obviously little benefit of making this an ITT contest.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

To reduce the group from a size where everyone will attack you to just the two top rivals. And obviously to test if his competitors would ride tempo or look at each others refusing to pull (which has happened in the past). Once he saw that Vingegaard was commited to pull him back and that Gaudu was also ready to take pulls he saw obviously little benefit of making this an ITT contest.

Just before Pog's attack Vinge already went to the front and set the pace strong enough to discourage any attacks from other riders (except from Gaudu possibly). Pog didn't let him work though and attacked almost immediately. I agree that he probably slowed down at some point seeing that Vinge keeps the distance close but his first attack was intended to do the damage (and it wasn't light), he just couldn't distance the due behind.

 

[Andy schleck]

Just before Pog's attack Vinge already went to the front and set the pace strong enough to discourage any attacks from other riders (except from Gaudu possibly). Pog didn't let him work though and attacked almost immediately. I agree that he probably slowed down at some point seeing that Vinge keeps the distance close but his first attack was intended to do the damage (and it wasn't light), he just couldn't distance the due behind.

Pogi saw that he couldn't make differences to gaudu and vingegaard after the attack, so he waited. If he saw that Vingegaard wouldn't be able to catch him, he wouldn't wait.
The three were at same level on the climb, but pogacar has a better sprint.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Just before Pog's attack Vinge already went to the front and set the pace strong enough to discourage any attacks from other riders (except from Gaudu possibly). Pog didn't let him work though and attacked almost immediately. I agree that he probably slowed down at some point seeing that Vinge keeps the distance close but his first attack was intended to do the damage (and it wasn't light), he just couldn't distance the due behind.

Well you asked me why he attacked, I gave you multiple reasons (which he also gave in the interview after). If you're convinced that he only attacked because he wanted to put a minute into them on a 7% climb than fair enough but I don't think him not doing that is saying too much about his current form.

 

[nightowl]

Well Pogacar did get a gap and enough distance that draft didn't matter and he still got brought back by Vingegaard

With Jonas willing to work it was going to be 2v1 into a headwind on a 7% climb, in which case Pog would have to kill himself to keep a gap so easing up and waiting for the sprint is probably the better option. And - to me at least - it definitely looked like he eased up so I think from that point he was always going to wait for the sprint.