Paris-Nice 2024, March 3-10

[Pantani_lives]

It won't be obvious to drop Buitrago and Plapp on a climb like that. So the favorites might have to attack on Friday or Sunday, when there's no MTF.

 

[search]

They could use the harder beginning now than back then.

the ASO press release says "The finish will take place at the summit of the Madone d'Utelle, which offers an ascent of 15.3 km at an average of 5.7 pc, with some sections at 8 pc", so there won't be any steep sections, unfortunately

 

[Red Rick]

Jebel Jais is the most representative climb that we see a lot, and it's always bad.

 

[Netserk]

the ASO press release says "The finish will take place at the summit of the Madone d'Utelle, which offers an ascent of 15.3 km at an average of 5.7 pc, with some sections at 8 pc", so there won't be any steep sections, unfortunately

Oh, too bad. I guess they'll start with Côte de Gattières as in the original stage and then climb MdU after 88 km?

(Finish with 900 m to go)

 

[Sciatic]

I guess I would rather have the disappointment now (about the abridged stage Sat) and watch with lowered expectations but still have the small chance that there might be some decent racing, rather than the disappointment of having expectations of an explosive finale that ends up shortened, neutered, or canceled just before the start of or during the stage

 

[Didinho]

I will certainly check the webcam of Auron on Saturday to see how the conditions are at the time of the race. I'll wager they'll be better than Terminillo in 2015.

I’ve read yesterday that the final ascent would not be the problem but the descent of the climb before in snowy conditions. So a unipuerto stage was their only solution I guess.

 

[Netserk]

I’ve read yesterday that the final ascent would not be the problem but the descent of the climb before in snowy conditions. So a unipuerto stage was their only solution I guess.

Well, it wouldn't be a problem to get to the bottom of Auron.

 

[Red Rick]

Well, it wouldn't be a problem to get to the bottom of Auron.

Or to do Unipuerto finish on Colmiane.

 

[tobydawq]

He said in an interview that he didn't think he'd wasted time attacking, Kooij was just quicker.
As for going early in the sprint, that's basically his signature move.

Signature move or not, physics and physiology do apply to him too. On an uphill finish it's fine to launch early but not on a flat like this one. He did say in the interview, though, that he got the front a litte earlier than he would have liked.

 

[Berniece]

It won't be obvious to drop Buitrago and Plapp on a climb like that. So the favorites might have to attack on Friday or Sunday, when there's no MTF.

Yeah, every stage from now on they'll have to try something. But Sunday is really the most likely stage to see big differences, or it's at least the hardest one out of these three.

My guess for each stage.
Stage 6 - Evenepoel and others will attack on Côte de La Colle-sur-Loup, and just go all out. With the idea that they'll at least stay away for sprinting at Tourrettes-sur-Loup. But wouldn't be surprised if Buitrago is able to follow.
Stage 7 - SOQ/Bora set a high pace from the start of the climb, once Van Wilder is done, Evenepoel will try to attack. If Buitrago isn't able to follow, but some others are, not too many, they'll ride to the finish.
Stage 8 - Depending on the GC this might not give us what we want. If Evenepoel is the leader, SOQ will keep everything together, and Evenepoel will follow however tries something on Col des Quatre-Chemins. If he isn't he'll go whenever there's only 20 people left. If that's at Côte de Peille, he might go for it.

 

[tobydawq]

That's because with the new weather protocols they cancel all the good stages, and leave only sprint stages. So you basically get the UAE Tour.

Yes, before the the Extreme Weather Protocol, they would always ride descents in the snow...

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765837575007400311

View: https://twitter.com/NBCSCycling/status/1765837575007400311?s=20

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, every stage from now on they'll have to try something. But Sunday is really the most likely stage to see big differences, or it's at least the hardest one out of these three.

My guess for each stage.
Stage 6 - Evenepoel and others will attack on Côte de La Colle-sur-Loup, and just go all out. With the idea that they'll at least stay away for sprinting at Tourrettes-sur-Loup. But wouldn't be surprised if Buitrago is able to follow.
Stage 7 - SOQ/Bora set a high pace from the start of the climb, once Van Wilder is done, Evenepoel will try to attack. If Buitrago isn't able to follow, but some others are, not too many, they'll ride to the finish.
Stage 8 - Depending on the GC this might not give us what we want. If Evenepoel is the leader, SOQ will keep everything together, and Evenepoel will follow however tries something on Col des Quatre-Chemins. If he isn't he'll go whenever there's only 20 people left. If that's at Côte de Peille, he might go for it.

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't drop Buitrago tomorrow. And nobody is gonna pull him back on the false flat downhill.

If he gets the right gruop over the top of the climb, yellow is a complete gimme for Evenepoel.

 

[RedheadDane]

Signature move or not, physics and physiology do apply to him too. On an uphill finish it's fine to launch early but not on a flat like this one. He did say in the interview, though, that he got the front a litte earlier than he would have liked.

TBF, I didn't study the finale that closely. I just saw he opened his sprint, and thought that's very Mads P.
And I like that he pointed out that the primary reason he didn't win was because Kooij was faster...

 

[Berniece]

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't drop Buitrago tomorrow. And nobody is gonna pull him back on the false flat downhill.

If he gets the right gruop over the top of the climb, yellow is a complete gimme for Evenepoel.

Who needs to be part of that group? Evenepoel, Roglic, Bernal, Jorgensen and Almeida? I’m not sure they’ll all ride, although Jorgensen and Bernal probably will.

 

[Netserk]

Paris-Nice 2024, stage 7 altered

103.9 km, +2979 m. Bike ride in Saint-Laurent-du-Var, Provence-Alpes-Côte D'Azur

ridewithgps.com

La Flamme Rouge - Information

 

[Berniece]

He needs noone, but I'd say group of 3 would be perfect, with best candidates being Roglic and Skjelmose probably.

Plapp getting dropped is completely given.

I don’t think he’s strong enough to ride away solo. Race won’t be hard enough and they’ll be able to follow him.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Who needs to be part of that group? Evenepoel, Roglic, Bernal, Jorgensen and Almeida? I’m not sure they’ll all ride, although Jorgensen and Bernal probably will.

Roglic would after awhile depending on the makeup of it and it looks like it’ll work. Almeida depends on how he’s feeling.

 

[YavorD]

I could only see Skjelmose/Gall staying with Evenepoel. I don't think Roglic is strong enough to survive.

 

[Lequack]

Did you folks notice that Rigoberto Uran is in this race, and is still top 10, ahead of Roglic!

 

[repre]

He needs noone, but I'd say group of 3 would be perfect, with best candidates being Roglic and Skjelmose probably.

Plapp getting dropped is completely given.

Gall will be there for sure

 

[Tim Cahill]

15k at 5.7% is good news for Plapp actually, he also has Chris Harper who can hang around for a long time.

 

[Squire]

15k at 5.7% is good news for Plapp actually, he also has Chris Harper who can hang around for a long time.

Yeah, and I also don't think tomorrow's short&steep stuff is too bad for him unless there are complete fireworks. Sunday will be the big test.

 

[claude cat]

15k at 5.7% is good news for Plapp actually, he also has Chris Harper who can hang around for a long time.

Yeah, Plapp's staple training route is Mt Buffalo in NE Victoria - 20km at 5% or so, should be extremely familiar.

 

[ManicJack]

Yeah, Plapp's staple training route is Mt Buffalo in NE Victoria - 20km at 5% or so, should be extremely familiar.

That doesn't mean anything unless he can ride it as fast as his competition in this race.