Paris-Nice 2024, March 3-10

[OlavEH]

A steeper uphill finish would make PN more similar to the other races.

Similar to what? If you made PN a race where none of the decisive climbs were any longer than something like 5-6 km, which race would it be more similar to? Today most of the one week races are quite similar and none of them besides perhaps Basque Country has a real unique identity.

 

[search]

The first two km after continuing up towards Col d'Èze are fairly difficult as well, but of course not as steep as the smaller road to QC they introduced in 2022.

yeah, not sure it really needed another change. The finish is more punchy the way they race it tomorrow, but it also means that the race is probably over with 10k to go. No real chance to organize a late chase, like we sometimes have seen in the past.

 

[Bolder]

Stage 8 prediction:

1. Buitrago
2. Evenepoel
3. Rogla
4. Jorgenson
5. Skjelmose

GC prediction:

1. Jorgenson
2. Evenepoel
3. Skjelmose
4. Rogla
5. Bernal

I think Jorgensen gets dropped by Remco, but I think Skeljmose can hang and takes GC, followed by Remco and Jorgensen, then Roglic. Bernal didn't look great today but he's probably going to be better than Plapp.

Wilco is my wild card. If Jorgensen is on a bad day, he should be top 5 and possibly podium. He's right behind Bernal.

My dream scenario is Roglic feels great and launches a raid with Buitrago, who only wants a stage win...

 

[Netserk]

Similar to what? If you made PN a race where none of the decisive climbs were any longer than something like 5-6 km, which race would it be more similar to? Today most of the one week races are quite similar and none of them besides perhaps Basque Country has a real unique identity.

The gradient here matter more than the length. A shallow MTF allow heavier riders to stay in contention.

Paris-Nice is the major one-week stage race with the easiest climbs. It suits all-rounders.

EDIT: It's also the first, the windiest and coldest (usually). If not for the scarring from the HC MTFs of recently, it's one of them with the strongest identity.

 

[woodburn]

You missed the point. Say he drops McNulty on the last climb, is ahead by 30s or so. but he punctures, then he gets caught by McNulty's group, then McNulty wins GC. There are plenty of scenario's possible where they finish in the same group.

There are lots of scenarios that we can contemplate. But have to think if you're Jorgenson in the last K, you are balancing pulling hard to put maximum time into McNulty and also the worry that you are pulling Remco to point where he can jump you and you lose time to him. I'd consider Remco the bigger adversary tomorrow so limiting to the loss to just the time bonus today while also putting seconds into McNulty was a good splitting of the differences. It'll all become clearer tomorrow what the right strategy was.

 

[Boehmand]

The thing I'm most exited to see is, if Skjelmose goes all in for the win - or if he rides defensively on Evenepoel to retain the podium.

I hope the former, even if he ends up cracking.

It's supposed to be tail wind on the two Cat. 1 climbs, so the conditions for a long range attack are there, not least if it gets wet again.

The other thing attacking early does, is eliminate the doms from the other teams, which will even the playing field for him.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

But have to think if you're Jorgenson in the last K, you are balancing pulling hard to put maximum time into McNulty and also the worry that you are pulling Remco to point where he can jump you and you lose time to him.

I think if he is pulling Evenepoel in the last K, Jorgensen can be fairly confident that he isn't going to lose 32 seconds to him along the seafront.

 

[topcat]

What's going on here?
Stage in progress- snide remarks and rare moments of excitement
Stage over- inept conclusions
Next- Cool off with a coffee and a small Danish for a couple of hours
Late night- Ramp up with the irrational predictions

 

[scribers]

I feel seen

 

[houtdffan]

The climb today didn't make much of a difference.

And I'm not talking about adding something like Mortirolo or the steep side of Zoncolan. A climb like Mont Faron or Mende would be more than enough. You really need to adapt that cycling has evolved since the 90s where everything was about loooooooooooong stages with generic climbs and equally long time trials with riders that had every clinic issue mentionable. And not the least that variety is a plus and that not every one week race on the calendar needs to be decided by 15 km long climbs. Which wasn't the identity of PN to begin with, it's just in the last 10-15 years they started with these kind of climbs.

get of your Youtube cycling horse! A 35-45 minute climb is just fine. Not every MTF needs to be a friggen 6-8 minute sprint!

And PN did used to have these long climbs, just not as the MTF. 2003 had the Croix de Chabouret (sp?). 18km at 3.3% gradient. A nice tempo grinder, like today, split the field just fine.

Gaps were fine today. McNulty got worked over, which was the intent of the stage

 

[Tricycle Rider]

I think he still has the jersey because Jorgenson didn't want it. The Belgian commentators were fuming, "why isn't he pulling! The DSes should tell him to get to the front!" Guys, wasn't it obvious? In this race having the leader's jersey isn't exactly an advantage.

I'm gonna guess McNulty won't have the legs, but I think Jorgenson might give it a good go. And then there's Remglic...

The weather might be a (big) factor... obviously some riders just negotiate what I would consider absolutely miserable weather better than others. So, who knows?

(As feeble as it may seem I'm still pulling for McNulty while being fully aware this is totally just wishful thinking.)

 

[Netserk]

get of your Youtube cycling horse! A 35-45 minute climb is just fine. Not every MTF needs to be a friggen 6-8 minute sprint!

And PN did used to have these long climbs, just not as the MTF. 2003 had the Croix de Chabouret (sp?). 18km at 3.3% gradient. A nice tempo grinder, like today, split the field just fine.

Gaps were fine today. McNulty got worked over, which was the intent of the stage

More like 10 km at 6.7 %.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I would wish ASO skipped these 15 km, 6 % MTFs in Paris-Nice and rather prioritized shorter and steeper climbs. Climbs like Utelle are so underwhelming.

To be fair to ASO, the finish they had originally planned was shorter and steeper.

get of your Youtube cycling horse! A 35-45 minute climb is just fine. Not every MTF needs to be a friggen 6-8 minute sprint!

And PN did used to have these long climbs, just not as the MTF. 2003 had the Croix de Chabouret (sp?). 18km at 3.3% gradient. A nice tempo grinder, like today, split the field just fine.

Gaps were fine today. McNulty got worked over, which was the intent of the stage

I think they used this side of Croix de Chaubouret on that stage, so the last 10 km were harder than what we saw today.

 

[Lequack]

Tomorrow should be partly sunny, so that's good at least. With the amount of descending they will have to do.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Tomorrow should be partly sunny, so that's good at least. With the amount of descending they will have to do.

Do you have the most current weather forecast on hand, by any chance? Hour by hour meteorogical graphs and all that, I mean.

(Sorry if someone has posted it already...)

 

[OlavEH]

get of your Youtube cycling horse! A 35-45 minute climb is just fine. Not every MTF needs to be a friggen 6-8 minute sprint!

And PN did used to have these long climbs, just not as the MTF. 2003 had the Croix de Chabouret (sp?). 18km at 3.3% gradient. A nice tempo grinder, like today, split the field just fine.

Gaps were fine today. McNulty got worked over, which was the intent of the stage

YT cyling horse? What kind of *** is that? My point is that variety is a positive thing and not every freakin race needs to exactly the same type of route. And I'm not just talking about MTFs. They could just as good add something like a 3 km, 10 % climb 20 km before the finish and an easier climb after that.

 

[houtdffan]

More like 10 km at 6.7 %.

seems like the truth lies in the middle

www.cyclingnews.com presents the 2003 Paris-Nice

elevation gain was 856m over 18km

yields a 4.7% gradient. Longer than today's climb, but not nearly as steep

 

[houtdffan]

To be fair to ASO, the finish they had originally planned was shorter and steeper.



I think they used this side of Croix de Chaubouret on that stage, so the last 10 km were harder than what we saw today.

Think it is a matter of where the measuring is taken from. ASO that year did the very start, whereas, you can decide to only count the final 10km and get a much steeper profile

 

[houtdffan]

YT cyling horse? What kind of *** is that? My point is that variety is a positive thing and not every freakin race needs to exactly the same type of route. And I'm not just talking about MTFs. They could just as good add something like a 3 km, 10 % climb 20 km before the finish and an easier climb after that.

We had that MTF on stage 4 (the short, sharp one). Today was the long gradual climb stage, which they have had one of those for most of the past 20 years (not always as a MTF though, sometimes they did a pass of part of Ventoux)

 

[iBanesto]

Damn Almeida looks like he is not going to finish in the top 10 of the GC.

First time since the Deutschland Tour in 2021.

 

[Oldermanish]

Then he will likely lose GC to those in front. Focus should be on your winning paths going forward. Had he not pulled in the end, he could have taken bonus seconds which would help far more than distancing McNulty.

They were shedding everyone and taking a pull can be a defensive move if you're in a comfort zone with your effort. He didn't look in distress; helped distance McNulty. There were no sprint guarantees so you deal with what's most likely. He also has a DS feeding him infor and he should know how he's doing. They weren't catching Roglic's teammate in any way.

You missed the point. Say he drops McNulty on the last climb, is ahead by 30s or so. but he punctures, then he gets caught by McNulty's group, then McNulty wins GC. There are plenty of scenario's possible where they finish in the same group.

Like a meteor strike or earthquake that could open a crack in the road just ahead of you. Several bonus seconds would really help bridge that crack.

 

[Roku]

Glad for Vlasov, he needed a victory like that. He should also go early today as well.

 

[OlavEH]

Today was the long gradual climb stage, which they have had one of those for most of the past 20 years (not always as a MTF though, sometimes they did a pass of part of Ventoux)

Okay. With that logic we can say that those MTFs or mountain stages with really steep climbs in the Giro are a part of it's identity and belong in the race since it has been used frequently for about 20 years.

 

[AmRacer]

Remco probably wants the bonus seconds, and a stage win with more bonus seconds.
Therefore, SQS won't let as break go or get too many minutes. A high speed chase is anticipated.

 

[Salvarani]

Quickstep has to get a result here. Lefevre has to be shitting himself. The value of the Wolfpack brand is getting lower

The pressure is huge