Paris-Nice Stage 7: Nice-Nice

[Moose McKnuckles]

I have intuition of calamity for Alberto before or during Tour. I pray no but something tells me the cards are not in his favor. I pray this not true.

In the case of no Alberto I do not know who has the correct sensations in legs.

Something gives me this feeling. Hopefully not crash.

Bob Roll is that you?

 

[karlboss]

If he's in yellow, which I fully expect, there is no way he could answer attacks from all those teams by himself. It looked like he struggled to answer Sanchez and Valverde. What would happen if the brothers Schleck take off right after he answers Caisse?

Explain how it would favor him.



Is that with or without a fresh blood bag?

On the final mountain of a mountain top finish? Play it through in your mind...the 10 best climbers together, you are Contador and Valverde jumps what do you do?

 

[SoLogy]

On the final mountain of a mountain top finish? Play it through in your mind...the 10 best climbers together, you are Contador and Valverde jumps what do you do?

I do nothing, but if Lance says jump, I immediately respond, "How high?"

Wait, I am confused, am I Contador or a Versus announcer?

 

[flicker]

Bob Roll is that you?

It is definatley a tour for the Spaniards. You know that they will work together.

The Spaniards are too good and to smart to lay down like dogs if Alberto falters. Alberto deserves the Tour but I just have a bad feeling. If I were one of the contending teams I would make Belgium ugly for Astana.

Please do not call me Roll, that's an insult.

 

[karlboss]

It is definatley a tour for the Spaniards. You know that they will work together.

The Spaniards are too good and to smart to lay down like dogs if Alberto falters. Alberto deserves the Tour but I just have a bad feeling. If I were one of the contending teams I would make Belgium ugly for Astana.

Please do not call me Roll, that's an insult.

there are 13km of cobbles...I think he'll be ok. If the wind is up I think Vino can nurse him through.

 

[flicker]

good I want to see Alberto ride

 

[Berzin]

Does anyone have the rest of Contador's racing schedule from now until the Tour?

I already have Armstrongs' and I want to write down what Alberto will be doing so I can keep track of them both.

Thanks in advance.

 

[thehog]

If he's in yellow, which I fully expect, there is no way he could answer attacks from all those teams by himself. It looked like he struggled to answer Sanchez and Valverde. What would happen if the brothers Schleck take off right after he answers Caisse?

Explain how it would favor him.



Is that with or without a fresh blood bag?

Why would he be chasing everyone down? He wouldn't need to. If Valverde is 4th on GC the guy coming 3rd or 2nd will chase him down to protect their position. It's not for the yellow jersey to protect the 2nd place on GC. Along with the fact the the time gaps will be larger than Paris-Nice. Contador will gain a larger amount on the ITT and one mountain finish that he doesn't need to cover an attack in an instance.

Besides..... It's not how Contador will cover the Caisse attacks but how withhold Caisse cover Contadors attacks!

 

[craig1985]

Does anyone have the rest of Contador's racing schedule from now until the Tour?

I already have Armstrongs' and I want to write down what Alberto will be doing so I can keep track of them both.

Thanks in advance.

IIRC, Contador is doing Catalunya (Armstrong was going to race, then found out AC was riding, so he backed/chickened out), Pays Basque, maybe the Fleche or LBL, the Dauphine.

 

[Von Mises]

Why would he be chasing everyone down? He wouldn't need to. If Valverde is 4th on GC the guy coming 3rd or 2nd will chase him down to protect their position. It's not for the yellow jersey to protect the 2nd place on GC. Along with the fact the the time gaps will be larger than Paris-Nice. Contador will gain a larger amount on the ITT and one mountain finish that he doesn't need to cover an attack in an instance.

Besides..... It's not how Contador will cover the Caisse attacks but how withhold Caisse cover Contadors attacks!

+1

It will not be Contador vs the rest. There will be lot of riders and lot of different agendas. Somebody wants to protect his 2nd place, somebody wants to defend his place in Top10, somebody wants to get in top6, somebody wants to get to3 etc etc

 

[Publicus]

If he's in yellow, which I fully expect, there is no way he could answer attacks from all those teams by himself. It looked like he struggled to answer Sanchez and Valverde. What would happen if the brothers Schleck take off right after he answers Caisse?

Explain how it would favor him.



Is that with or without a fresh blood bag?

I think this is where tactics will come in. There may be a day when AC has yellow and the next day they decide to give up their yellow jersey. Or AC purposely stays out of yellow. It's a 3 week race, there is no way Astana can or should remotely try to control the peloton for the entire race. As far as your scenario goes, I would need to know what the GC standings were at the time, the stage, how everyone is climbing at that point in the race, the weather, etc. How far down is Valverde? the Brothers Schleck? Where is Liquigas? I know we all like to talk about what if scenarios on these threads, but there are too many missing variables in your question to give a good answer at this point.

And when did he struggle to answer Sanchez and Valverde? Not being argumentative, I just don't recall that being the case.

 

[karlboss]

I think my case has been made a couple of times, if someone attacks it is not contador's sole responsibility to cover it, and second if someone else attacks why wouldn't he use it like he did DDLF at algarve?

 

[UpTheRoad]

Contador is also helped because others cannot fully commit to a legbreaking attack, for the most part. That's because his counterattack is so devastating. If there is a chance that he latches on, the original attacker is toast when the counter comes.

I think that the others are too wary of that, although if they are wary it is for a very good reason. AC has also shown to have the ability to put in multiple attacks in quick succession.

 

[pmcg76]

+1

It will not be Contador vs the rest. There will be lot of riders and lot of different agendas. Somebody wants to protect his 2nd place, somebody wants to defend his place in Top10, somebody wants to get in top6, somebody wants to get to3 etc etc

+1 The tactics being suggested make it seem like Contador will be taking on everyone. Well this would suggest the aims of all the teams are to beat Conta rather than win the Tour.

Caisse, Liquigas, Shack, Saxo all have strong teams. Lets say for example, first mountain stage, LL Sanchez, Nibali, Kloeden, F.Schleck all make a break.
Firstly how likely is that and secondly it will be more than just Astana that would need to chase, Sky, Garmin, Euskaltel & maybe Cervelo, BMC(if there) would be interested in chasing because they will be aiming for Tour victory or podium places so they aint gonna let 4-5 rival contenders ride away just like that.

After the first few mountain stages, the GC should be shook out and its more than likely that AC will be at or near the top. Then it becomes like Von mises suggests, different team will have different agendas. When Chavanel was in that break at Paris-Nice, Caisse helped out chasing because they had 2 podium places at stake. I thought Astana played it well that day.

The only way to eliminate and isolate Contador is for all other rival teams to get together, agree on a compromise beforehand to eliminate Conta from contention first and then fight it out amongst themselves. To do this they somehow need to get all their main contenders in that initial break I suggested and leave Astana chasing alone. Chances of that happening????

Astana are definitely not as strong as other teams but I think their Tour line-up will be strong enough to have Contador where he needs to be when it matters.

 

[UpTheRoad]

+1 The tactics being suggested make it seem like Contador will be taking on everyone. Well this would suggest the aims of all the teams are to beat Conta rather than win the Tour.

Caisse, Liquigas, Shack, Saxo all have strong teams. Lets say for example, first mountain stage, LL Sanchez, Nibali, Kloeden, F.Schleck all make a break.
Firstly how likely is that and secondly it will be more than just Astana that would need to chase, Sky, Garmin, Euskaltel & maybe Cervelo, BMC(if there) would be interested in chasing because they will be aiming for Tour victory or podium places so they aint gonna let 4-5 rival contenders ride away just like that.

Team Lance would also contribute to the chase if that was the makeup of the break.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

And when did he struggle to answer Sanchez and Valverde? Not being argumentative, I just don't recall that being the case.

Bad phrasing on that one.... Forgive me it was late and I was sleepy. It was on the final climb with Rodríguez and Valverde, he seemed to do most of the pulling (why?) and didn't look as comfortable as I've come to expect out him. Perhaps it was just nerves, but when Sanchez caught back up on the descent, AC still looked like he was digging pretty deep to keep up with them. When I say struggle, I mean by AC standards because we rarely see that dude struggle.

There was also another point when Katusha was on the front and he fell back deep into the group. Had his contenders been more astute, they could have attacked and AC would have had nowhere to go. He did realize it though and quickly got back to the front. Had it been the Tour and he fell back that far, you better believe somebody will try to put a little time into him.

BTW, will there be time bonuses in this year's Tour? If so, I'd give the advantage to Valverde if he stays with him.

 

[Von Mises]

There was also another point when Katusha was on the front and he fell back deep into the group. Had his contenders been more astute, they could have attacked and AC would have had nowhere to go. He did realize it though and quickly got back to the front. Had it been the Tour and he fell back that far, you better believe somebody will try to put a little time into him.

BTW, will there be time bonuses in this year's Tour? If so, I'd give the advantage to Valverde if he stays with him.

I noticed that too, that there were couple of moments when he fell too deep into the group and was pretty much boxed with nowhere to go. But I dont know where exactly his main competitors were at the moment, did they had an opportunity to attack or not.

 

[Publicus]

Bad phrasing on that one.... Forgive me it was late and I was sleepy. It was on the final climb with Rodríguez and Valverde, he seemed to do most of the pulling (why?) and didn't look as comfortable as I've come to expect out him. Perhaps it was just nerves, but when Sanchez caught back up on the descent, AC still looked like he was digging pretty deep to keep up with them. When I say struggle, I mean by AC standards because we rarely see that dude struggle.

There was also another point when Katusha was on the front and he fell back deep into the group. Had his contenders been more astute, they could have attacked and AC would have had nowhere to go. He did realize it though and quickly got back to the front. Had it been the Tour and he fell back that far, you better believe somebody will try to put a little time into him.

BTW, will there be time bonuses in this year's Tour? If so, I'd give the advantage to Valverde if he stays with him.

On the final climb, I think he wasn't doing the pulling so much as controlling what happened. If he rode defensively, there likely would have been a series of attacks and counterattacks, plus a slowing of the pace to allow Lulu to catch back on, which would start the attacking all over again. Better to dish out the pain and prevent that from occurring. But that's just my opinion.

On the descent, I think it was the same thing: keep the pace high so Valverde couldn't counter AND keep Sanchez from joining up again. He also took the time bonus, which was astute. I thought once Sanchez and the rest of the group came together he relaxed a bit and just held Valverde's wheel. Frankly, I think Valverde was at his limit the last three days and just didn't have the legs to attack. He's not a passive rider by any stretch of the imagination, so that's the only explanation that makes sense (though I'm sure someone has a better one that I haven't considered).

As for the moment he was boxed in, I saw that too and I couldn't for the life of me understand why Valverde/Lulu/Rodriguez or somebody just drop the hammer. As it was he AC had to go through a bit of traffic to get Rodriguez's wheel. That was the one mistake I saw that had the potential to doom his chance of winning. If that happens at the Tour, you are right, Andy and whoever else is gone up the rode and he's wasting valuable energy chasing.

 

[Angliru]

This is not the old, pre-2009 ASO. The management has been replaced with UCI and dope friendly managers. They have already signaled that Vino will be able to ride by saying that there is nothing in the rules to prevent it. Vino will be at the TdF.

That's good to hear.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

On the final climb, I think he wasn't doing the pulling so much as controlling what happened. If he rode defensively, there likely would have been a series of attacks and counterattacks, plus a slowing of the pace to allow Lulu to catch back on, which would start the attacking all over again. Better to dish out the pain and prevent that from occurring. But that's just my opinion.

Maybe the best defense is a good offense...or something like that. It looked like he was just wearing himself down.

On the descent, I think it was the same thing: keep the pace high so Valverde couldn't counter AND keep Sanchez from joining up again. He also took the time bonus, which was astute. I thought once Sanchez and the rest of the group came together he relaxed a bit and just held Valverde's wheel. Frankly, I think Valverde was at his limit the last three days and just didn't have the legs to attack. He's not a passive rider by any stretch of the imagination, so that's the only explanation that makes sense (though I'm sure someone has a better one that I haven't considered).

There were a couple moments when it looked like he would drop back a length or two and had to waste energy catching back up. That's something I look for when racing: if somebody behind me drops back then comes out of the saddle to catch up only to drop back again, he's about to bonk, and I pick it up. Maybe it wasn't as bad as I perceived, but it's something I couldn't help noticing.

As for the moment he was boxed in, I saw that too and I couldn't for the life of me understand why Valverde/Lulu/Rodriguez or somebody just drop the hammer. As it was he AC had to go through a bit of traffic to get Rodriguez's wheel. That was the one mistake I saw that had the potential to doom his chance of winning. If that happens at the Tour, you are right, Andy and whoever else is gone up the rode and he's wasting valuable energy chasing.

They looked like they were just behind Katusha. If they had attacked, by the time AC got free to follow, I don't think he would have caught them. He certainly wouldn't catch the Schlecks in that situation.

If he's forced to defend the Maillot Jaune, they way he had to defend in Paris-Nice, I wonder how many days he can hold on. Like you said before, it comes down to tactics. He may have to take it on the last mountain stage (stage 17 Col du Tourmalet). If that's the case, he could defend on the subsequent flat stage and ITT.

 

[Angliru]

What's the point of watching Versus? There's better coverage out there for free. Versus' coverage is crap. It's the FoxNews of sports channels.

It's all some folks have. It's all I had up until this year. You grin, bear it and wear out the mute on your remote.

 

[thehog]

There were a couple moments when it looked like he would drop back a length or two and had to waste energy catching back up. That's something I look for when racing: if somebody behind me drops back then comes out of the saddle to catch up only to drop back again, he's about to bonk, and I pick it up. Maybe it wasn't as bad as I perceived, but it's something I couldn't help noticing.

Cancellara does this. It's a show of strength. Andy Schleck does it also. What are you talking about? About to bonk? What every time somebody in a race drops back they're gonna bonk? You know nothing about bike racing.

 

[Publicus]

Maybe the best defense is a good offense...or something like that. It looked like he was just wearing himself down.



There were a couple moments when it looked like he would drop back a length or two and had to waste energy catching back up. That's something I look for when racing: if somebody behind me drops back then comes out of the saddle to catch up only to drop back again, he's about to bonk, and I pick it up. Maybe it wasn't as bad as I perceived, but it's something I couldn't help noticing.



They looked like they were just behind Katusha. If they had attacked, by the time AC got free to follow, I don't think he would have caught them. He certainly wouldn't catch the Schlecks in that situation.

If he's forced to defend the Maillot Jaune, they way he had to defend in Paris-Nice, I wonder how many days he can hold on. Like you said before, it comes down to tactics. He may have to take it on the last mountain stage (stage 17 Col du Tourmalet). If that's the case, he could defend on the subsequent flat stage and ITT.

I wouldn't read too much into what happened at Paris-Nice. Astana's squad was not the one they originally expected to field. They were scheduled to bring two more climbers: De la Fuente and Hernandez, both of which were scratched because of knee injuries. Grivko (sp) and Gurov were tipped to start in their place. Grivko did a decent job, but I think the squad would have been better served with another climber (unfortunately the only other climbing domestiques were at Murcia (Jufre, Tiralongo)).

In light of the less than desirable mix of climbers and engines, Astana did pretty well. I think we got a small sample of what they may do if he gets yellow early--though I would expect them to give up the jersey if it's too early. No way they can defend for two weeks. And that's not a slight on Astana. I don't think ANY team can realistically defend for two weeks.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Cancellara does this. It's a show of strength. Andy Schleck does it also. What are you talking about? About to bonk? What every time somebody in a race drops back they're gonna bonk? You know nothing about bike racing.

Not everytime, but from what I've noticed it's often a sign.

 

[Angliru]

Of course Contador is superior. He deserves many tour wins however before you judge the Shack remember which month we are living.

I think most of the posts were passing judgement on the Versus coverage not necessarily on Team Radioshack.