Paris-Roubaix 2025, one day monument, April 13 (men)

[pastronef]

do you remember when we saw weird innovative different bikes at Scheldeprijs, riders rode the bike they'd ride the next Sunday on the cobbles
now it's almost all aero frames, no different frames and wild solutions for Roubaix

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

How does an each way bet make sense then? With an each way bet, you place two bets: one on the rider winning, and one on the rider placing (top 3/4 whatever the terms are). So half of what you bet is on the rider winning - practically cutting your price in half of you don't think your rider has a chance of winning.

It makes a lot of sense at 66/1.
Say you put 5 on each way which is an outlay of 10 in total.
Forget the win but for a placing you get 66/1 divided by 4 and then multiplied by 5 (half the outlay) which gives 82.5 for a 10 stake. So it's worth throwing 5 in the bin if you think the rider will place even if they have little chance of winning (which just for the sake of it, would yield 412.5)

 

[Axel Hangleck]

do you remember when we saw weird innovative different bikes at Scheldeprijs, riders rode the bike they'd ride the next Sunday on the cobbles
now it's almost all aero frames, no different frames and wild solutions for Roubaix

Yeah, I miss that; you'd see the Domane, Roubaix & Synapse all wheeled out for this race.......
I don't see the point in Specialized still producing the Roubaix if it's no longer used in competition. They have the Diverge as a similar bike.

 

[RedheadDane]

We have the answer to the "who's the GOAT?" question!

Spoiler

 

[TheRossSeaParty]

In this race the final selection more often than not doesn't come from an attack, but from the group resting between sectors and a handful of riders pressing on and getting a gap. I could see Pedersen or Kung winning by not relaxing and then either being in a small group sprint, or attacking from a small group that doesn't include a big favorite. Winning Monuments is for the bold.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

so team strength:

Lidl: sorry, its still discount.
Alpecin: Group sickness or whatever.
Visma: Well, they have to bring in a teenager.
UAE: shiny teeth, but otherwise a one man band.

Here is the real deal from 1996:

View: https://youtu.be/QGpW-88VioQ

 

[iBanesto]

 

[Sciatic]

so team strength:

Lidl: sorry, its still discount.
Alpecin: Group sickness or whatever.
Visma: Well, they have to bring in a teenager.
UAE: shiny teeth, but otherwise a one man band.

Here is the real deal from 1996:

View: https://youtu.be/QGpW-88VioQ

Love how you have to have watched (not just read about) enough cycling to understand the UAE team refernce

 

[Filippo_3467]

The fact there is no massive favorite is actually not favouring an outsider, as there are 2 main favorites (mvdp and pog, even though pog is new to the race so it could be that hopes are too high) and 2-3 more favorites / podium contenders (wva, pedersen). So those will all ride and the second tier favorites even have to attack / anticipate themselves, so there won’t be any room for third tier favorites attacks, I fear.

Ps: no disrespect, just trying to be clear about the pecking order.

I think that would be true for any major race outside of Roubaix. Between the wind, crashes, punctures it's almost impossible to say in what situation the race will be after Arenberg and how much tactics will be involved. All other monuments are (unfortunately) pretty straight forwards these days. In Roubaix that's impossible.

After the last two years I can totally understand the feeling that MvdP is the massive favourite Pog-Flanders-style. I think those races went absolutely perfect for Alpecin as a unit. It's not just a question if MvdP has bad luck or a bad day. If Philipsen and Vermeersch are not there he could find himself more in a situation like 2021 and 2022 where he was stuck most of the race behind rolling attacks.

I think a third tier favourite has a good chance of getting some leash if there's a group after Arenberg that isn't inclined on working together. I think for that scenario to come true it would be enough that MvdP and Pogacar don't have a teammate with them or ahead and still a few guys in there wheel.

If Vermeersch and Philipsen can make a selection of 8-9 guys the risk of a clear result is of course alive and well.

I'm expecting a good race from Lidl and Ineos will make it more tactical then the last years. But Pedersen and Ganna have to be smart and be more interested in a close race. So no pulling with MvdP, WvA and Pogi if you have your teammates close by.

 

[Gratemans]

^This.
You all can slam me if Pogi pulls out another 80k solo, but I don't expect that to happen. I actually don't have much to add to the above post. Matnieu could win it, but that one is far from a given as well I feel.
I think there's a pretty big chance of a semi-surprise. Waerenskjold, MIhkels, guys like that.

And of course, Küng will be 5th or thereabouts. He deserves a lot of respect imo for always finishing in the top 10. It's a weird monument: bad luck all abound, tires dislodging from frames, riders sliding off the track at every other turn.. I think we owe some respect to Küng. He's always there at the end the last couple of years. His tragedy is that he'll never actually win it, but he's always there. I respect that.

 

[Lequack]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOIqdf9S8h0

 

[search]

Het Nieuwsblad's star rating to tomorrow. It gets a bit random towards the end

* **** van der Poel
**** Pogacar, van Aert
*** Ganna, Pedersen, Stuyven
** Küng, Philipsen, van Baarle, F. Vermeersch
* Teunissen, Wellens, Fedorov, Meeus, Pithie

 

[RedheadDane]

Het Nieuwsblad's star rating to tomorrow. It gets a bit random towards the end

* **** van der Poel
**** Pogacar, van Aert
*** Ganna, Pedersen, Stuyven
** Küng, Philipsen, van Baarle, F. Vermeersch
* Teunissen, Wellens, Fedorov, Meeus, Pithie

A bit?

 

[Netserk]

@Netserk's star rating:

* * * * * - Van der Poel
* * * * - Pedersen, Van Aert
* * * - Philipsen, Pogi, Ganna
* * - Stuyven, Küng, F. Vermeersch, Pithie
* - G. Vermeersch, Van Baarle, Tarling, Politt, [Vino]

Dark Horse: Wærenskjold

 

[Calin897]

I think if VDP and Pog both reach reach the velodrome together,he smokes Pog in a sprint. If Pog manages to get away and stay away Cancellara style,he might win his first Roubaix.

 

[RedheadDane]

If Pog manages to get away and stay away Cancellara style,he might win his first Roubaix.

If he stays away, I am 100% certain he's going to win.

 

[vladimir]

A bit?

Fedorov was 14th last year. He had a mechanical in Arneberg and was only Astana rider in the front group. He has shown much better form this year, so I think he is a very interesting outsider for a top 6 tomorrow!

 

[RedheadDane]

Fedorov was 14th last year. He had a mechanical in Arneberg and was only Astana rider in the front group. He has shown much better form this year, so I think he is a very interesting outsider for a top 6 tomorrow!

Oh.
It just came across as a "Oh, we better include an Astana guy, coz... you never know with those guys these days!" moment.

 

[search]

Fedorov was 14th last year. He had a mechanical in Arneberg and was only Astana rider in the front group. He has shown much better form this year, so I think he is a very interesting outsider for a top 6 tomorrow!

will be interesting to see indeed. I guess equipment may be an issue for XDS' first Roubaix, though, but they seem to be using established tires/wheels etc at least.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I always like to follow our forum predictions because most of us (forum members) follow cycling all season and know how PR is raced. So:

* * * * * - Van der Poel
* * * * - Pogacar, Van Aert, Pedersen
* * * - Ganna, Phillipsen
* * - Stuyven, Küng
* - Others (Gianni, Florian, Politt, Tarling, etc)

 

[hayneplane]

I always like to follow our forum predictions because most of us (forum members) follow cycling all season and know how PR is raced. So:

* * * * * - Van der Poel
* * * * - Pogacar, Van Aert, Pedersen
* * * - Ganna, Phillipsen
* * - Stuyven, Küng
* - Others (Gianni, Florian, Politt, Tarling, etc)

Other than putting Kung into the others group I think that list is bang on.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

***** VDP, Pedersen, Van Aert
**** Pogacar, Ganna, Philipsen
***Stuyven, Küng, G. Vermeersch
** F. Vermeersch, Meeus, Milan
* Wærenskjold, Pithie, Tarling (Merlier, Politt etc.)

 

[search]

here's what I'd be thinking, but it's of course difficult, especially not knowing exactly about van der Poel's and Phillipsen's health

* **** van der Poel
**** Ganna, Philipsen
*** Pedersen, van Aert, Küng
** Pogacar, Stuyven, F. Vermeersch, Waerenskjold
* Rex, Bissegger, Politt, Haller, G. Vermeersch

(using the Het Nieuwsblad system, one at 5 stars, two at 4 etc)

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Lukaš Kubiš will win this bike race.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Pogacar is just there as a distraction for Nils Politt and Florian Vermeersch, who will finish first and second. Then Pogacar will attack in the penultimate km to complete a clean sweep for UAE.