Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Cycling111]

@AlfaLum
Obviously, it could be different on Seixas case, but all this maths about age reminds me somewhat of the reactions after Ayuso's podium at the Vuelta.
Since he was a year younger than Pogacar, it seemed like he'd achieve everything a year younger, and jis progress has been less than other riders, probably because Ayuso had an excessively professional training since he was 15.
I'd like to see jis progress graph; I think he won't have a bell curve and he'll never have it, just a slight rise due to age, but without ever reaching that curve.

Aysuso´s curve will probably resemble what Merckx had from 28-29 to 32.

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

 

[Netserk]

seixas is not just very young . he is very strong , getting stronger from last he raced with no indication of slowing down yet

if he was 22 or 24 with the same development speed , hed also look like a coming tour winner

 

[canina82]

seixas is not just very young . he is very strong , getting stronger from last he raced with no indication of slowing down yet

if he was 22 or 24 with the same development speed , hed also look like a coming tour winner

Yup, this kid is a future GT winner. However, I believe this current Seixas is already at his peak level (almost like a normal GC rider before the TdF). He was living like a monk for weeks at altitude so he must be close to his ceilling right now (of course due to his age, he will get stronger year after year) when other riders are not (Almeida, most classics riders he faced yesterday, etc). Pais Vasco will give us a better picture for sure.

 

[Netserk]

Yup, this kid is a future GT winner. However, I believe this current Seixas is already at his peak level (almost like a normal GC rider before the TdF). He was living like a monk for weeks at altitude so he must be close to his ceilling right now (of course due to his age, he will get stronger year after year) when other riders are not (Almeida, most classics riders he faced yesterday, etc). Pais Vasco will give us a better picture for sure.

yes that is also my impression and itzulia will tell

 

[Salvarani]

Seixas is very good physically already. Thats evident.

How much more he can improve is really hard to say atm.

Going forward it will also be about handling expectations/pressure. Avoiding bad injuries. Be able to keep having the same focus and motivation. Year after year.

 

[canina82]

I don't know if I'm the only one to have this impression but it's pretty sad to see a 19 years old kid going to altitude for several weeks "alone" (without family, friends, etc). This urge to perform is what make young riders not want to race anymore at 25 due to burnout.

 

[Netserk]

id take the burnout at 25 if it came with a bank account of 50 million

 

[Cycling111]

Yup, this kid is a future GT winner. However, I believe this current Seixas is already at his peak level (almost like a normal GC rider before the TdF). He was living like a monk for weeks at altitude so he must be close to his ceilling right now (of course due to his age, he will get stronger year after year) when other riders are not (Almeida, most classics riders he faced yesterday, etc). Pais Vasco will give us a better picture for sure.

That could be another similarity with Ayuso.

In recent seasons, Ayuso has started very strongly, but his performance has gradually declined as the season progressed.

 

[canina82]

id take the burnout at 25 if it came with a bank account of 50 million

But Seixas is an exception. I don't think he is the only young rider doing this with his age however due to his talent he is able already to perform against the big boys and win.
I don't think a more gradual rising would do any worse. Why not practise at sea level, being with his family, go to minor WT stage races (e.g. Poland) and non WT races? Then, next year he could do a more difficult program. Maybe it's just me but I don't like seeing a 19 years old doing more altitude than Pogacar (who is the best GC rider in the world).

 

[canina82]

That could be another similarity with Ayuso.

In recent seasons, Ayuso has started very strongly, but his performance has gradually declined as the season progressed.

It's very evident, Seixas is on another level compared to young Ayuso. Let's wait and see how he performs later in the season to take conclusions.

 

[Red Rick]

Seriously how can anyoen judge if he's going too hard too early. His schedule is fairly limited, and he wasn't dropping the likes of Ayuso in Algarve.

Most likely the conditions for fast climbing times were absolutely pitch perfect and the likes of Jorgenson weren't having their very best day.

 

[Cycling111]

It's very evident, Seixas is on another level compared to young Ayuso. Let's wait and see how he performs later in the season to take conclusions.

I'm not saying they're at the same level, but Ayuso also started seasons too strong to win and try to prove himself (in his case also to try to be a leader in the team) and I see similarhis type of development and emergence in cycling after being highly professionalized teenagers.

 

[Red Rick]

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

How do people glaze Pogacar so much yet insist on insulting the god-king by comparing him to a farmer like Merckx

 

[Berniece]

I don't know if I'm the only one to have this impression but it's pretty sad to see a 19 years old kid going to altitude for several weeks "alone" (without family, friends, etc). This urge to perform is what make young riders not want to race anymore at 25 due to burnout.

I think it's a case by case thing. People are different, and he is probably extremely motivated by what he can achieve. Why wouldn't he work this hard? If it doesn't matter to him. Big difference with Pogacar to who things come more naturally and who already has a huge palmares. He doesn't need to do long altitude camps, only for TDF he does that. He rather stays home, since he knows he doesn't need to do all those things to still perform.

 

[Cycling111]

How do people glaze Pogacar so much yet insist on insulting the god-king by comparing him to a farmer like Merckx

I don't consider Merckx a farmer.

 

[AlfaLum]

@AlfaLum
Obviously, it could be different on Seixas case, but all this maths about age reminds me somewhat of the reactions after Ayuso's podium at the Vuelta.
Since he was a year younger than Pogacar, it seemed like he'd achieve everything a year younger, and jis progress has been less than other riders, probably because Ayuso had an excessively professional training since he was 15.
I'd like to see jis progress graph; I think he won't have a bell curve and he'll never have it, just a slight rise due to age, but without ever reaching that curve.

Aysuso´s curve will probably resemble what Merckx had from 28-29 to 32.

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

Yeah I understand the comparison with Ayuso because the hype was probably similar and Ayuso so far has not lived up to the expectations at that time regardless of becoming a very good rider. But even with Ayuso he might still improve in such a way that he will live up to the GT winning expectations at some point.

Obviously the same thing could happen with Seixas in that his development goes at a very slow pace from here. But I dont know if that is the most likely scenario tover honest.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I don't know if I'm the only one to have this impression but it's pretty sad to see a 19 years old kid going to altitude for several weeks "alone" (without family, friends, etc). This urge to perform is what make young riders not want to race anymore at 25 due to burnout.

Very normal for kids at 18 to go to college/university, not seeing family and their previous cohort of friends, for several months at a time. A supportive team ought to be able to make that very manageable for him.

 

[canina82]

Very normal for kids at 18 to go to college/university, not seeing family and their previous cohort of friends, for several months at a time. A supportive team ought to be able to make that very manageable for him.

I don't think both situations are comparable tbh.
Kids when they go to college, they met new friends, they don't go 2000m above sea level where it's snowing pretty hard almost all day.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I don't think both situations are comparable tbh.
Kids when they go to college, they met new friends, they don't go 2000m above sea level where it's snowing pretty hard almost all day.

But presumably he is not being sent there to live like a hermit with no contact with anyone else. And I assume that it's a team camp. It mightn't be what most of us would choose to do, but nothing very extreme.

It would be possible to make it a bad experience, but a team ought to be professional and thoughtful enough to make sure it is not.

 

[canina82]

But presumably he is not being sent there to live like a hermit with no contact with anyone else. And I assume that it's a team camp. It mightn't be what most of us would choose to do, but nothing very extreme.

It would be possible to make it a bad experience, but a team ought to be professional and thoughtful enough to make sure it is not.

Of course riders can handle 2 months at altitude. But doing 2 or even 3 altitude trainings year after year is probably gonna hurt him later in his career.
We have the case of Vingegaard, who is probably one of the best GT riders ever and he is part of Visma (a very professional team). His wife criticized the amount of time he was at altitude.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

We have the case of Vingegaard, who is probably one of the best GT riders ever and he is part of Visma (a very professional team). His wife criticized the amount of time he was at altitude.

Seixas does not , as far as we are aware, have two children: being away from them is rather more a family forming issue than a 19 year old being away from his parents for a while.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Let's see how the Prodigy performs vs the Alpha Predator on white roads of Tuscany.

 

[Oldman]

@AlfaLum
Obviously, it could be different on Seixas case, but all this maths about age reminds me somewhat of the reactions after Ayuso's podium at the Vuelta.
Since he was a year younger than Pogacar, it seemed like he'd achieve everything a year younger, and jis progress has been less than other riders, probably because Ayuso had an excessively professional training since he was 15.
I'd like to see jis progress graph; I think he won't have a bell curve and he'll never have it, just a slight rise due to age, but without ever reaching that curve.

Aysuso´s curve will probably resemble what Merckx had from 28-29 to 32.

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

Yeah, that spot beginning at 28-29 is where the stupid mistakes, if any all disappear. The drop off afterward is usually to serious injury or lack of motivation. If Merckx had missed a few crashes, kept his pedal stroke smoother he could've continued 8-10 years more. Everyone else would've quit, though.

 

[AlfaLum]

Let's see how the Prodigy performs vs the Alpha Predator on white roads of Tuscany.

Unless Pogacar has messed up his preparation he will be in a league of his own again.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Unless Pogacar has messed up his preparation he will be in a league of his own again.

I'm curious how Seixas performs i.e. how close he will be to the top3, to guys like Del Toro and Pidcock.