Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Krzysztof_O]

Somebody failed basic algebra

Logarithmic growth is very slow, which is the core of fast computer algorithms and data structures (one of my specialities). Exponential growth is totally opposite.

Now I guess you meant the shape of log function, which has this initial faster growth (for very small x) and then stagnates. I was operating on larger range of x and combination "logarithmic" + "not slow" is totally unfitting then.

 

[AlfaLum]

On a different level, but from the comments I'm reading on social media, he reminds me of Ayuso. Ayuso was much more professional than the others from a very young age; back then, altitude training wasn't so common for juniors, and Ayuso was doing it with a private coach since he was 15. He also had a private nutritionist because at that moment at Cadet and Junior they weren't so strict at that age.

He reached the podium in the Vuelta a year younger than Pogacar, although his performance wasn't as impressive, although he was more regular, something distinctive of someone more professional than someone young.
That was enough for some to predict he'd have a year's advantage over Pogacar in everything. Still waiting his first victory in a GT.

Ayuso is still very good, but if we look at his development curve, he's probably barely improved; he's maintained his base level which was very high.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Vingegaard, who at 22 was still in the U23 category, being beaten by many cyclists in the Tour de l'Avenir and other races. He turned professional at that age, and he was domestique, and his growth curve has skyrocketed compared to Ayuso's, who doesn't seem likely to have a significant improvement.

Morgado is another example of someone who, from a very young age, has and adult-level performance. He's probably in his professional prime at just 22.

We'll see what Seixas' future holds, but we're talking about someone who was already training at Decathlon at 16, while cyclists of previous generations at that age were in amateur teams or clubs without any altitude training, etc. Pogacar didn't even have a time trial bike at 17; now that's unthinkable with the WT development teams.

I think we're going to see a generation with a growth curve similar to Ayuso's. A very high level at the beginning, but without bell curve.

I have read this story a number of times now and it makes sense to a certain extend. But what it doesnt take into regard is that the absolute monsters in the current era have still been improving gradually during their careers as a pro.

Take Pogacar himself. Four years ago he was 23 years old and he had already finished three full seasons as a pro at probably the best team in the world when it comes to developing riders. But still the current day Pogacar is much better than the one four years ago.

Similar for van der Poel, who has been a monster from a young age, but who has probably only reached his peak around 2023 when he was 28 and with four full years of pro racing under his belt.

Now i see a lot of people taking Ayuso as an example of somebody whose growth curve shows barely any improvement. But personally I think it has shown improvement from the start of his career and at only 23 years of age we cannot even be certain that Ayuso is already at the peak of his performance.

For Seixas I can say fairly confident that i do not believe that any person is at their physical peak at the age of 19 and so there will always be room for improvement there.

 

[Red Rick]

Logarithmic growth is very slow, which is the core of fast computer algorithms and data structures (one of my specialities). Exponential growth is totally opposite.

Now I guess you meant the shape of log function, which has this initial faster growth (for very small x) and then stagnates. I was operating on larger range of x and combination "logarithmic" + "not slow" is totally unfitting then.

Yeah I was talking about the shape, where development should be fast early and then gradually get slower.

 

[Cycling111]

@AlfaLum
Obviously, it could be different on Seixas case, but all this maths about age reminds me somewhat of the reactions after Ayuso's podium at the Vuelta.
Since he was a year younger than Pogacar, it seemed like he'd achieve everything a year younger, and jis progress has been less than other riders, probably because Ayuso had an excessively professional training since he was 15.
I'd like to see jis progress graph; I think he won't have a bell curve and he'll never have it, just a slight rise due to age, but without ever reaching that curve.

Aysuso´s curve will probably resemble what Merckx had from 28-29 to 32.

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

 

[Netserk]

seixas is not just very young . he is very strong , getting stronger from last he raced with no indication of slowing down yet

if he was 22 or 24 with the same development speed , hed also look like a coming tour winner

 

[canina82]

seixas is not just very young . he is very strong , getting stronger from last he raced with no indication of slowing down yet

if he was 22 or 24 with the same development speed , hed also look like a coming tour winner

Yup, this kid is a future GT winner. However, I believe this current Seixas is already at his peak level (almost like a normal GC rider before the TdF). He was living like a monk for weeks at altitude so he must be close to his ceilling right now (of course due to his age, he will get stronger year after year) when other riders are not (Almeida, most classics riders he faced yesterday, etc). Pais Vasco will give us a better picture for sure.

 

[Netserk]

Yup, this kid is a future GT winner. However, I believe this current Seixas is already at his peak level (almost like a normal GC rider before the TdF). He was living like a monk for weeks at altitude so he must be close to his ceilling right now (of course due to his age, he will get stronger year after year) when other riders are not (Almeida, most classics riders he faced yesterday, etc). Pais Vasco will give us a better picture for sure.

yes that is also my impression and itzulia will tell

 

[Salvarani]

Seixas is very good physically already. Thats evident.

How much more he can improve is really hard to say atm.

Going forward it will also be about handling expectations/pressure. Avoiding bad injuries. Be able to keep having the same focus and motivation. Year after year.

 

[canina82]

I don't know if I'm the only one to have this impression but it's pretty sad to see a 19 years old kid going to altitude for several weeks "alone" (without family, friends, etc). This urge to perform is what make young riders not want to race anymore at 25 due to burnout.

 

[Netserk]

id take the burnout at 25 if it came with a bank account of 50 million

 

[Cycling111]

Yup, this kid is a future GT winner. However, I believe this current Seixas is already at his peak level (almost like a normal GC rider before the TdF). He was living like a monk for weeks at altitude so he must be close to his ceilling right now (of course due to his age, he will get stronger year after year) when other riders are not (Almeida, most classics riders he faced yesterday, etc). Pais Vasco will give us a better picture for sure.

That could be another similarity with Ayuso.

In recent seasons, Ayuso has started very strongly, but his performance has gradually declined as the season progressed.

 

[canina82]

id take the burnout at 25 if it came with a bank account of 50 million

But Seixas is an exception. I don't think he is the only young rider doing this with his age however due to his talent he is able already to perform against the big boys and win.
I don't think a more gradual rising would do any worse. Why not practise at sea level, being with his family, go to minor WT stage races (e.g. Poland) and non WT races? Then, next year he could do a more difficult program. Maybe it's just me but I don't like seeing a 19 years old doing more altitude than Pogacar (who is the best GC rider in the world).

 

[canina82]

That could be another similarity with Ayuso.

In recent seasons, Ayuso has started very strongly, but his performance has gradually declined as the season progressed.

It's very evident, Seixas is on another level compared to young Ayuso. Let's wait and see how he performs later in the season to take conclusions.

 

[Red Rick]

Seriously how can anyoen judge if he's going too hard too early. His schedule is fairly limited, and he wasn't dropping the likes of Ayuso in Algarve.

Most likely the conditions for fast climbing times were absolutely pitch perfect and the likes of Jorgenson weren't having their very best day.

 

[Cycling111]

It's very evident, Seixas is on another level compared to young Ayuso. Let's wait and see how he performs later in the season to take conclusions.

I'm not saying they're at the same level, but Ayuso also started seasons too strong to win and try to prove himself (in his case also to try to be a leader in the team) and I see similarhis type of development and emergence in cycling after being highly professionalized teenagers.

 

[Red Rick]

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

How do people glaze Pogacar so much yet insist on insulting the god-king by comparing him to a farmer like Merckx

 

[Berniece]

I don't know if I'm the only one to have this impression but it's pretty sad to see a 19 years old kid going to altitude for several weeks "alone" (without family, friends, etc). This urge to perform is what make young riders not want to race anymore at 25 due to burnout.

I think it's a case by case thing. People are different, and he is probably extremely motivated by what he can achieve. Why wouldn't he work this hard? If it doesn't matter to him. Big difference with Pogacar to who things come more naturally and who already has a huge palmares. He doesn't need to do long altitude camps, only for TDF he does that. He rather stays home, since he knows he doesn't need to do all those things to still perform.

 

[Cycling111]

How do people glaze Pogacar so much yet insist on insulting the god-king by comparing him to a farmer like Merckx

I don't consider Merckx a farmer.

 

[AlfaLum]

@AlfaLum
Obviously, it could be different on Seixas case, but all this maths about age reminds me somewhat of the reactions after Ayuso's podium at the Vuelta.
Since he was a year younger than Pogacar, it seemed like he'd achieve everything a year younger, and jis progress has been less than other riders, probably because Ayuso had an excessively professional training since he was 15.
I'd like to see jis progress graph; I think he won't have a bell curve and he'll never have it, just a slight rise due to age, but without ever reaching that curve.

Aysuso´s curve will probably resemble what Merckx had from 28-29 to 32.

If Pogacar continues to resemble Merckx so much in his curve, it seems there are still 3 horrible years ahead for his haters

Yeah I understand the comparison with Ayuso because the hype was probably similar and Ayuso so far has not lived up to the expectations at that time regardless of becoming a very good rider. But even with Ayuso he might still improve in such a way that he will live up to the GT winning expectations at some point.

Obviously the same thing could happen with Seixas in that his development goes at a very slow pace from here. But I dont know if that is the most likely scenario tover honest.