Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[canina82]

Next GT winner. What a teenager. A true monster!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It´s especially curious to see here or on social media everyone obsessed with age, whether it´s a year younger to achieve this or that, on the part of followers of those Visma riders who developed late. How does that theory fit with Roglic or Vingegaard?

I suppose it's like everything else; the narrative adapts to the rider they like.
Climbing records for example, depending on who sets them, generate thousands of posts in the clinic section, or it's considered pure talent.

And this time we're talking about a record set by Pogacar a few months ago, not Yates' record with strong wind in UAE Tour, which was broken by ight cyclists, not just one like today.

Roglic didn't even have a bike at Seixas's age, come on.

 

[Salvarani]

Roglic didn't even have a bike at Seixas's age, come on.

He had never even seen one before

 

[Cycling111]

By the way, was Seixas ill at the Avenir? I remember we commented that he wasn't as dominant as expected. At that level, he should have won with hugh difference againts Widar.

 

[AlfaLum]

By the way, was Seixas ill at the Avenir? I remember we commented that he wasn't as dominant as expected. At that level, he should have won with hugh difference againts Widar.

He said himself afterwards that he was not feeling to well. So probably he was not performing at this top level there.

 

[Peyresourde]

I will also post it here, but today he (probably) did a better climbing perfomance than anyone bar Vingegaard and Pogacar since 2010. He also did very similar to what Pogacar did on the same climb last year:

Paul Seixas | 94 (-2): 7.21 W/kg for 16:26 on Saint Romain de Lerps (Faun Ardeche 2026)*

*Edit: Added 1 second to the time after rewatch

 

[Cookster15]

Gosh, a Pogačar - esque - performance.

When Seixas came 3rd at last year's European champs I thought wow who is this guy? But the 19 year old has come out of the blocks in 2026 with a bang. Those climb stats at Faun-Ardèche are insane. Huge anticipation for his career .... and he is French!

 

[pastronef]

I've read the whole 10 pages of the French forum Gruppetto just to laugh at some fans of the Holy Church of FDJ going mad about him and Decathlon eheh

 

[Pozzovivo]

I've read the whole 10 pages of the French forum Gruppetto just to laugh at some fans of the Holy Church of FDJ going mad about him and Decathlon eheh

what are they mad about?

 

[Alien Performance]

I'll be extremely hyped if he can put up a fight to Pog at Strade

 

[pastronef]

what are they mad about?

well, "too strong", "Pog's time!", "too easy", and most of the FDJ can't stand Decathlon. maybe they wish Seixas signed with FDJ, but they can't say it.
I'm happy he didn't sign with them

 

[Pozzovivo]

well, "too strong", "Pog's time!", "too easy", and most of the FDJ can't stand Decathlon. maybe they wish Seixas signed with FDJ, but they can't say it.
I'm happy he didn't sign with them

Yeah, of course... I'm praying for Decathlon to hold onto him. UAE are coming...

 

[Red Rick]

UAE are coming...

You know what's up when Jan Christen gets selected for the Tour

 

[hayneplane]

I will also post it here, but today he (probably) did a better climbing perfomance than anyone bar Vingegaard and Pogacar since 2010. He also did very similar to what Pogacar did on the same climb last year:

Paul Seixas | 95 (-2): 7.22 W/kg for 16:25 on Saint Romain de Lerps (Faun Ardeche 2026)

That’s a phenomenal performance from a true phenom.

Obviously the race today before that climb was a closed race without any serious movements from the peloton in stark comparison to the EC race but this was a performance of serious class, power, tactical awareness and maturity.

Cant wait to see what he can do in Strade Bianchi.

 

[Cycling111]

On a different level, but from the comments I'm reading on social media, he reminds me of Ayuso. Ayuso was much more professional than the others from a very young age; back then, altitude training wasn't so common for juniors, and Ayuso was doing it with a private coach since he was 15. He also had a private nutritionist because at that moment at Cadet and Junior they weren't so strict at that age.

He reached the podium in the Vuelta a year younger than Pogacar, although his performance wasn't as impressive, although he was more regular, something distinctive of someone more professional than someone young.
That was enough for some to predict he'd have a year's advantage over Pogacar in everything. Still waiting his first victory in a GT.

Ayuso is still very good, but if we look at his development curve, he's probably barely improved; he's maintained his base level which was very high.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Vingegaard, who at 22 was still in the U23 category, being beaten by many cyclists in the Tour de l'Avenir and other races. He turned professional at that age, and he was domestique, and his growth curve has skyrocketed compared to Ayuso's, who doesn't seem likely to have a significant improvement.

Morgado is another example of someone who, from a very young age, has and adult-level performance. He's probably in his professional prime at just 22.

We'll see what Seixas' future holds, but we're talking about someone who was already training at Decathlon at 16, while cyclists of previous generations at that age were in amateur teams or clubs without any altitude training, etc. Pogacar didn't even have a time trial bike at 17; now that's unthinkable with the WT development teams.

I think we're going to see a generation with a growth curve similar to Ayuso's. A very high level at the beginning, but without bell curve.

 

[memyselfandI]

Is it time to change the headline of this topic to 'The Paul Seixas is the next Eddy Merckx thread'?
Now's the right time to do it. Just do it.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Let's oberhype and put as much pressure on the teennager as possible

 

[Cycling111]

Is it time to change the headline of this topic to 'The Paul Seixas is the next Eddy Merckx thread'?
Now's the right time to do it. Just do it.

The new Hinault. The new Merckx for the Belgians.

I'm reminded of Widar. He wasn't that far behind Seixas in the Avenir, it was undoubtedly a mirage. But I hope he does better than De Lie, who was also the new "someone."

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Let's oberhype and put as much pressure on the teennager as possible

He's like if Landa and Masnada had a baby; the best of both worlds.

 

[AlpRaid]

Let's oberhype and put as much pressure on the teennager as possible

agreed.

and it was so obvious that the other riders were not trying, were not targeting the race, and there was no organized chase. So this win means nothing.

 

[Rob5091]

Some interesting points - planned to have teammates, realized Jorgenson was struggling and just upped the tempo. Obviously had no problems with his air conditioning as well.
https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...enson-in-commanding-faun-ardeche-classic-solo

Jorgenson was not taking many turns. At first, I thought he was bluffing. Seixas felt something different. "On the flatter section I took most of the pulls but I did not go full gas."
He was measuring. Not panicking. Not overextending.
Then the road tilted upward. "On the steeper part I accelerated again. I kept my effort going and decided to try the solo raid."

 

[Hugo Koblet]

This kid is insane. Obviously it'll be very interesting what he does at the Tour, and I think at this point it'll come as no surprise to anyone if he just straight up podiums. I'm very much looking forward to his performance in Strade Bianche. Obviously expecting him to put up a fight against Pogacar would probably be to expect too much, but the battle against Pidcock and Del Toro should be great.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Somebody failed basic algebra

Logarithmic growth is very slow, which is the core of fast computer algorithms and data structures (one of my specialities). Exponential growth is totally opposite.

Now I guess you meant the shape of log function, which has this initial faster growth (for very small x) and then stagnates. I was operating on larger range of x and combination "logarithmic" + "not slow" is totally unfitting then.

 

[AlfaLum]

On a different level, but from the comments I'm reading on social media, he reminds me of Ayuso. Ayuso was much more professional than the others from a very young age; back then, altitude training wasn't so common for juniors, and Ayuso was doing it with a private coach since he was 15. He also had a private nutritionist because at that moment at Cadet and Junior they weren't so strict at that age.

He reached the podium in the Vuelta a year younger than Pogacar, although his performance wasn't as impressive, although he was more regular, something distinctive of someone more professional than someone young.
That was enough for some to predict he'd have a year's advantage over Pogacar in everything. Still waiting his first victory in a GT.

Ayuso is still very good, but if we look at his development curve, he's probably barely improved; he's maintained his base level which was very high.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Vingegaard, who at 22 was still in the U23 category, being beaten by many cyclists in the Tour de l'Avenir and other races. He turned professional at that age, and he was domestique, and his growth curve has skyrocketed compared to Ayuso's, who doesn't seem likely to have a significant improvement.

Morgado is another example of someone who, from a very young age, has and adult-level performance. He's probably in his professional prime at just 22.

We'll see what Seixas' future holds, but we're talking about someone who was already training at Decathlon at 16, while cyclists of previous generations at that age were in amateur teams or clubs without any altitude training, etc. Pogacar didn't even have a time trial bike at 17; now that's unthinkable with the WT development teams.

I think we're going to see a generation with a growth curve similar to Ayuso's. A very high level at the beginning, but without bell curve.

I have read this story a number of times now and it makes sense to a certain extend. But what it doesnt take into regard is that the absolute monsters in the current era have still been improving gradually during their careers as a pro.

Take Pogacar himself. Four years ago he was 23 years old and he had already finished three full seasons as a pro at probably the best team in the world when it comes to developing riders. But still the current day Pogacar is much better than the one four years ago.

Similar for van der Poel, who has been a monster from a young age, but who has probably only reached his peak around 2023 when he was 28 and with four full years of pro racing under his belt.

Now i see a lot of people taking Ayuso as an example of somebody whose growth curve shows barely any improvement. But personally I think it has shown improvement from the start of his career and at only 23 years of age we cannot even be certain that Ayuso is already at the peak of his performance.

For Seixas I can say fairly confident that i do not believe that any person is at their physical peak at the age of 19 and so there will always be room for improvement there.

 

[Red Rick]

Logarithmic growth is very slow, which is the core of fast computer algorithms and data structures (one of my specialities). Exponential growth is totally opposite.

Now I guess you meant the shape of log function, which has this initial faster growth (for very small x) and then stagnates. I was operating on larger range of x and combination "logarithmic" + "not slow" is totally unfitting then.

Yeah I was talking about the shape, where development should be fast early and then gradually get slower.