Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Krzysztof_O]

Somebody failed basic algebra

Logarithmic growth is very slow, which is the core of fast computer algorithms and data structures (one of my specialities). Exponential growth is totally opposite.

Now I guess you meant the shape of log function, which has this initial faster growth (for very small x) and then stagnates. I was operating on larger range of x and combination "logarithmic" + "not slow" is totally unfitting then.

 

[AlfaLum]

On a different level, but from the comments I'm reading on social media, he reminds me of Ayuso. Ayuso was much more professional than the others from a very young age; back then, altitude training wasn't so common for juniors, and Ayuso was doing it with a private coach since he was 15. He also had a private nutritionist because at that moment at Cadet and Junior they weren't so strict at that age.

He reached the podium in the Vuelta a year younger than Pogacar, although his performance wasn't as impressive, although he was more regular, something distinctive of someone more professional than someone young.
That was enough for some to predict he'd have a year's advantage over Pogacar in everything. Still waiting his first victory in a GT.

Ayuso is still very good, but if we look at his development curve, he's probably barely improved; he's maintained his base level which was very high.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Vingegaard, who at 22 was still in the U23 category, being beaten by many cyclists in the Tour de l'Avenir and other races. He turned professional at that age, and he was domestique, and his growth curve has skyrocketed compared to Ayuso's, who doesn't seem likely to have a significant improvement.

Morgado is another example of someone who, from a very young age, has and adult-level performance. He's probably in his professional prime at just 22.

We'll see what Seixas' future holds, but we're talking about someone who was already training at Decathlon at 16, while cyclists of previous generations at that age were in amateur teams or clubs without any altitude training, etc. Pogacar didn't even have a time trial bike at 17; now that's unthinkable with the WT development teams.

I think we're going to see a generation with a growth curve similar to Ayuso's. A very high level at the beginning, but without bell curve.

I have read this story a number of times now and it makes sense to a certain extend. But what it doesnt take into regard is that the absolute monsters in the current era have still been improving gradually during their careers as a pro.

Take Pogacar himself. Four years ago he was 23 years old and he had already finished three full seasons as a pro at probably the best team in the world when it comes to developing riders. But still the current day Pogacar is much better than the one four years ago.

Similar for van der Poel, who has been a monster from a young age, but who has probably only reached his peak around 2023 when he was 28 and with four full years of pro racing under his belt.

Now i see a lot of people taking Ayuso as an example of somebody whose growth curve shows barely any improvement. But personally I think it has shown improvement from the start of his career and at only 23 years of age we cannot even be certain that Ayuso is already at the peak of his performance.

For Seixas I can say fairly confident that i do not believe that any person is at their physical peak at the age of 19 and so there will always be room for improvement there.

 

[Red Rick]

Logarithmic growth is very slow, which is the core of fast computer algorithms and data structures (one of my specialities). Exponential growth is totally opposite.

Now I guess you meant the shape of log function, which has this initial faster growth (for very small x) and then stagnates. I was operating on larger range of x and combination "logarithmic" + "not slow" is totally unfitting then.

Yeah I was talking about the shape, where development should be fast early and then gradually get slower.