Teams & Riders Peter Sagan discussion thread.

[El Pistolero]

Re:

These days Sagan is more interested in whining about how other riders will make it harder for him, instead of focusing on how to overcome the obstacle that comes naturally with being a RvV and 3xWC winner. He's wrong to ride conservatively - that only ensures that there'll be outsiders at the finale who might surprise him.

Regardless, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to say it's almost impossible to win the one monument he's actually managed to win.

Agreed. With his current racing attitude he would be better off riding the ardennes classics though. The cyclists for those races are just dumber in general, I think.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Sagan is overrated in these kind of races.

He's explosive, but cannot hold a gap. So then it's hard to win. He had one year where he did hold the gap. But now seems to have lost even that quality again

He maybe should try ardennes insted of cobbles than. But yeah. He is quite poor roleur and in small groups nobody wants to collaborate with him. Almost impossible for him to win

This I said three years ago. Ardenas are much better for him.

Only Amstel. Other two he can not win, he would need to shred at least 5 kilos for that.

Last year Matthews finished 4th in LBL, I think Sagan can win it

And Gerrans won it 4 years ago. Valverde won’t be around forever, (though sometimes you wonder...)

Thing is, Vv and Gerro both had teams 100% dedicated to getting them to the finale in the front group. Sagan doesn’t even have that in the races he does target. And Majka, McCarthy etc probably won’t appreciate having to pass up their own monument goals.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Sagan is overrated in these kind of races.

He's explosive, but cannot hold a gap. So then it's hard to win. He had one year where he did hold the gap. But now seems to have lost even that quality again

He maybe should try ardennes insted of cobbles than. But yeah. He is quite poor roleur and in small groups nobody wants to collaborate with him. Almost impossible for him to win

This I said three years ago. Ardenas are much better for him.

Only Amstel. Other two he can not win, he would need to shred at least 5 kilos for that.

Last year Matthews finished 4th in LBL, I think Sagan can win it

Except for the fact that Valverde has been able to out sprint Sagan on tough uphill sprint finishes before. Plus Matthews has a team to put him in the right spot, Sagan doesn't.

 

[movingtarget]

Sagan never was a great tactician and never will be. He wins on his strength. Sometimes he gives kudos to the winner in a grudging way but more often than not he is whining about what should have happened. If he doesn't like being a marked rider maybe he should retire and try another sport. Quickstep dominated the race and Sagan's chase did nothing to change that. The fact that Pedersen held off the chasing bunch of class riders shows where the blame lays.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Sagan never was a great tactician and never will be. He wins on his strength. Sometimes he gives kudos to the winner in a grudging way but more often than not he is whining about what should have happened. If he doesn't like being a marked rider maybe he should retire and try another sport. Quickstep dominated the race and Sagan's chase did nothing to change that. The fact that Pedersen held off the chasing bunch of class riders shows where the blame lays.

Relax. He has to say something after the race.

Rule no 1.and 2. When overated Sagan loses he is an idiot in tactics and always whinning.
Rule 3.4 When he wins: He is arrogant, invisible wheel sucker. Never deserved win.
See you next Sunday.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

These days Sagan is more interested in whining about how other riders will make it harder for him, instead of focusing on how to overcome the obstacle that comes naturally with being a RvV and 3xWC winner. He's wrong to ride conservatively - that only ensures that there'll be outsiders at the finale who might surprise him.

Regardless, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to say it's almost impossible to win the one monument he's actually managed to win.

Problem is he doesn't have the level to do that anymore. He tried in E-3 and failed miserably - he can't sustain the effort and doesn't have more than a few bullets. I think thats why he ultimately always is complaining nowadays, because he is pretty frustrated by his relatively poor form.

He's just a overrated a fair amount right now - he was never the favourite going into Flanders and he sure as hell isn't a favourite for Roubaix. In this shape, in a race he is pretty bad at, there's just no way.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see what Sagan did tactically wrong what many others didn't do wrong.

It seems that most riders aren't realising that on this course not everything is decided on the last 2 hills, and it doesn't seem that if you attack before the last 2 hills you climb it that much slower than you would otherwise.

You don't close a 20s gap on another favorite if you've wasted less energy on those hills. It's only the secondary contenders that explode on those last hills. Everyone should've gone for Terpstra's wheel.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

These days Sagan is more interested in whining about how other riders will make it harder for him, instead of focusing on how to overcome the obstacle that comes naturally with being a RvV and 3xWC winner. He's wrong to ride conservatively - that only ensures that there'll be outsiders at the finale who might surprise him.

Regardless, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to say it's almost impossible to win the one monument he's actually managed to win.

Problem is he doesn't have the level to do that anymore. He tried in E-3 and failed miserably - he can't sustain the effort and doesn't have more than a few bullets. I think thats why he ultimately always is complaining nowadays, because he is pretty frustrated by his relatively poor form.

He's just a overrated a fair amount right now - he was never the favourite going into Flanders and he sure as hell isn't a favourite for Roubaix. In this shape, in a race he is pretty bad at, there's just no way.

He is frustrated that he does not have another option to win then to race negatively and hope it will come to reduced bunch sprint. There were years where he created practically every winning move. He is still the strongest guy in terms of ability to create the winning selection, but very average rouller. He is no Cancellara. But it is OK. He has his money. If he wants another big wins he will have to sacrifice big part of that money on domestics.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Sagan is overrated in these kind of races.

He's explosive, but cannot hold a gap. So then it's hard to win. He had one year where he did hold the gap. But now seems to have lost even that quality again

He maybe should try ardennes insted of cobbles than. But yeah. He is quite poor roleur and in small groups nobody wants to collaborate with him. Almost impossible for him to win

This I said three years ago. Ardenas are much better for him.

Only Amstel. Other two he can not win, he would need to shred at least 5 kilos for that.

Last year Matthews finished 4th in LBL, I think Sagan can win it

Yeah, but Valverde gave him almost 100m in just half a km, not to mention that Matthews is lighter than Sagan and because of that better climber. So to conclude, no, Sagan can't win Liege at his current weight.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

.

Only Amstel. Other two he can not win, he would need to shred at least 5 kilos for that.

Last year Matthews finished 4th in LBL, I think Sagan can win it

Yeah, but Valverde gave him almost 100m in just half a km, not to mention that Matthews is lighter than Sagan and because of that better climber. So to conclude, no, Sagan can't win Liege at his current weight.

Matthews being a better climber is myth.

Of course Sagan have to lose some weight to be competitive in Ardennes. Nobody denies that.

 

[yaco]

Re:

I don't see what Sagan did tactically wrong what many others didn't do wrong.

It seems that most riders aren't realising that on this course not everything is decided on the last 2 hills, and it doesn't seem that if you attack before the last 2 hills you climb it that much slower than you would otherwise.

You don't close a 20s gap on another favorite if you've wasted less energy on those hills. It's only the secondary contenders that explode on those last hills. Everyone should've gone for Terpstra's wheel.

Agree - Possibly Sagan could have gone sooner on the last climb which would have got him closer to Pederssen and possibly second place - Sagan dropped the others like a stone on the final climb - Hate to see if he is in form.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re: Re:

Imo for Roubaix Bora should be more offensive than cotrolling the race. Bodnar, Burghardt and Oss are more suited to Roubaix than Ronde. Maybe Burghardt or Bodnar should try some early attack. Would be good if Oss race was similar as last year. Easier to said than did of course.

I hope so too. But for Sagan to win, it must come to a sprint, he won't win solo this year, that's for sure. The more I see, the more I start to think, that for some reason he really is targeting Innsbruck.

What makes you think he is targeting Innsbruck? The fact that he doesn't seem to be at 100% right now?

Even if he was targeting the WC, which I don't think he is given that it's a climber's course, he'd still try to be as good as possible for the classics no matter what. I don't see how the two are related at all.

 

[cyclopsnoobie]

Re:

I have read couple of statement here and RVV thread and in comment section under the sagan-articles on main page which seems to be adopted as some mantra by antisagan camp of discussion.

1) Sagan should have closed gap to Terpstra in the moment when Terpstra attacked. It was his fault and his tactical stupidity that he did not went with Terpstra.
2)If Sagan is strongest he should have chased and finally catch Terpstra after Paterberg, when it was 1 vs 1. He could not ergo Terpstra is stronger.
3) Sagan is complaining. It is disgusting - because it means that he blame the others and is not able to admit, that he is not best - it is arrogance. He should not be complaining as he is in the same situation as Cancellara and Boonen.
4) He should shut up and find the way how to deal with his marked-man situation.

ad 1) mantra-statement:
3 vs 1 scenario 40 km to the line is THE MOST BASIC principle of “tactics” from children level of bike racing:
- first of trio attacks, isolated guy goes with him, others follow,
- when group is together second guy of trio attacks….isolated guy closes the gap again,
- then third of trio attacks ……and so on, till isolated guy have no energy left.
There is 99% chance that in the end isolated guy is spent and loses.

So if in the group, in which are 3 teams with 3 or 2 riders (QS, ASTANA, BMC) there is NO WAY that isolated guy should be the one who should close gaps - it is in light of aforementioned 3 vs 1 scenario completely *** idea. Because if the others waited for Sagan to do the work they basically put him in 3 v 1 scenario so they decided that he loses…except that ....ups...they lost too. So from tactical point of view in yesterday situation The Others SHOULD immediately, without thinking, knowing elementary principle of cycling, close Terpstra and if they did not, it was THEIR tactical failure, on the other hand Sagan MUST NOT be the one closing gaps…..if he does ti would be HIS failure!

ad 2) mantra-statement:
The gap between Terpstra and Sagan after Paterberg was cca 35-37’’ second. The distance form Paterberg to the line is cca 13 km. So we are speaking about 13 km time trial after 252 km racing in legs. Even one of best timetrialist of history Cancellara could not close gap of 13 sec to Sagan in 2016. So I guess that to close 30 second gap on 13 km after 250 km ALONE is almost impossible - at least sure for Sagan who is unfortunately not best timetrialist(maybe among the first third of peloton in short ones, 10 - 15 km). So no, fact that Sagan did not closed the gap to Terpstra AFTER Paterberg, mano a mano, is NOT a proof, that Terpstra is stronger then Sagan. It is only proof that he was strong enough to hold on the 30 sec advantage.

ad 3) mantra-statement:
Well Sagan is usualy interviewed after race and he is asked to describe what was happened there in the crucial moments of the races. And I believe that it was the EXACT description of what happened there - rest of group waited the isolated Sagan to close the gap - again, it was amateurish failure from rest of group - it is basic math - simple as that. And Sagan is also simple and pretty straightforward in his interviews - he says things as he sees them - without sugarcoating. So usually, first of all, his “complains” are answers to questions what happend. Ok, is there also complaining? I thing he is pretty pissed of because he is victory type of personality and he hate defeats - but this is only part of truth - the other part of truth is, that he is dealing with his disappointment quite good - in his after-loss interview i always hear mixture of his fighter-pittbull-temperament on one side and his joyful easy-stoic approach to life on other side - so in his answers, with the fact that he is REALLY NOT a master of public-presentation-verbality not even in his native language, we are often confronted with this confusing cocktail of his opposing feelings and opposing features of his personality. So yes, there surely is complaining ingredient but together with accepting of tactical nature of cycling and together with respect to winner and together with his stoic tommorow-is-next-race-attitude. In my opinion then, complaining is not definitory aspect of Sagan - quite opposite he strike me as a person with glimpses of quite philosophical meta-view to “ups” and “downs” of his cycling and life.

And ad Cancellara analogy- Cancellara was in the same situation during his career, true - but by all means HE WAS COMPLAINING LOUD AND CLEAR as well - but, let’s admit - it is only natural in such a situations.

ad 4) statement:
Only way how he can individually deal with this situation is somehow become masterlevel timetrialist able of long range solo rides from 50 - 40 km to the line.
Or somehow to get 3 guys to his team to be able be with him to 5 km from line to avoid 3 to 1 scenario.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I don't see what Sagan did tactically wrong what many others didn't do wrong.

It seems that most riders aren't realising that on this course not everything is decided on the last 2 hills, and it doesn't seem that if you attack before the last 2 hills you climb it that much slower than you would otherwise.

You don't close a 20s gap on another favorite if you've wasted less energy on those hills. It's only the secondary contenders that explode on those last hills. Everyone should've gone for Terpstra's wheel.

Agree - Possibly Sagan could have gone sooner on the last climb which would have got him closer to Pederssen and possibly second place - Sagan dropped the others like a stone on the final climb - Hate to see if he is in form.

If he had bridged to Pederssen, suddenly it’s a very different race with 2 of them chasing Terpstra. But he didn’t, and he didn’t have nearly the engine to chase solo. So it’s easy to say he didn’t have the form that he had in 2016, for whatever reason.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Terpstra closed 30 seconds to a group of 3..
Sagan can't close 30 seconds on Terpstra alone, but it's no proof Terpstra is stronger? Ok, cyclopsnoopie, you are just trying to fit everything in your own fantasy now

 

[cyclopsnoobie]

Re:

Terpstra closed 30 seconds to a group of 3..
Sagan can't close 30 seconds on Terpstra alone, but it's no proof Terpstra is stronger? Ok, cyclopsnoopie, you are just trying to fit everything in your own fantasy now

) of course it is my fantasy - we are discussing hypothetical alternative scenarios, do’n we?
My point was - we do not know, who was the strongest - maybe it was Terpstra, no problem with that.

But i thing there could be difference between catching rest of daybreak and catching one of favourite after Paterberg when he has 37’’second advantage mano a mano on 13km time-trial.

In your fantasy - if it was vice versa and Sagan was the one with 37 sec advantage on Paterberg and Terpstra was chasing him alone - would he catch Sagan? I doubt it - but, in my opinion, we must settle with reality that we do not know, because, again, it is purely hypothetical
In facticity only one thing is sure - that Terpstra is winer of 2018 RVV …..and surely we must say that after super spectacular performance.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I don't see what Sagan did tactically wrong what many others didn't do wrong.

It seems that most riders aren't realising that on this course not everything is decided on the last 2 hills, and it doesn't seem that if you attack before the last 2 hills you climb it that much slower than you would otherwise.

You don't close a 20s gap on another favorite if you've wasted less energy on those hills. It's only the secondary contenders that explode on those last hills. Everyone should've gone for Terpstra's wheel.

Agree - Possibly Sagan could have gone sooner on the last climb which would have got him closer to Pederssen and possibly second place - Sagan dropped the others like a stone on the final climb - Hate to see if he is in form.

If he had bridged to Pederssen, suddenly it’s a very different race with 2 of them chasing Terpstra. But he didn’t, and he didn’t have nearly the engine to chase solo. So it’s easy to say he didn’t have the form that he had in 2016, for whatever reason.

My post clearly states that he went too late on the final climb and therefore needed to catch Pedersen on the final climb - Let's draw an analogy - Terpstra's attack worked because he caught the three breakaway riders on the final climb and went past them - Imagine if Terpstra caught them at the top of the final climb then the other three riders would have sat on his wheel - You can hardly compare 2016 to 2018 when QS barely had a rider in the last 30kms.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

.

Only Amstel. Other two he can not win, he would need to shred at least 5 kilos for that.

Last year Matthews finished 4th in LBL, I think Sagan can win it

Yeah, but Valverde gave him almost 100m in just half a km, not to mention that Matthews is lighter than Sagan and because of that better climber. So to conclude, no, Sagan can't win Liege at his current weight.

Matthews being a better climber is myth.

Of course Sagan have to lose some weight to be competitive in Ardennes. Nobody denies that.

Matthews and Sagan are similar in the races they target. Their climbing levels are are probably not much different. I get the feeling with Matthews it's more of a confidence thing. He needs a big win to kickstart his career of near misses. He always seems frustrated after races but I enjoyed his ride in the Tour last year.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Sagan never was a great tactician and never will be. He wins on his strength. Sometimes he gives kudos to the winner in a grudging way but more often than not he is whining about what should have happened. If he doesn't like being a marked rider maybe he should retire and try another sport. Quickstep dominated the race and Sagan's chase did nothing to change that. The fact that Pedersen held off the chasing bunch of class riders shows where the blame lays.

Relax. He has to say something after the race.

Rule no 1.and 2. When overated Sagan loses he is an idiot in tactics and always whinning.
Rule 3.4 When he wins: He is arrogant, invisible wheel sucker. Never deserved win.
See you next Sunday.

Relax. I don't think he is either but sometimes it's okay to admit he was beaten by a better rider on the day.

 

[johnymax]

Re: Re:

I have read couple of statement here and RVV thread and in comment section under the sagan-articles on main page which seems to be adopted as some mantra by antisagan camp of discussion.

1) Sagan should have closed gap to Terpstra in the moment when Terpstra attacked. It was his fault and his tactical stupidity that he did not went with Terpstra.
2)If Sagan is strongest he should have chased and finally catch Terpstra after Paterberg, when it was 1 vs 1. He could not ergo Terpstra is stronger.
3) Sagan is complaining. It is disgusting - because it means that he blame the others and is not able to admit, that he is not best - it is arrogance. He should not be complaining as he is in the same situation as Cancellara and Boonen.
4) He should shut up and find the way how to deal with his marked-man situation.

ad 1) mantra-statement:
3 vs 1 scenario 40 km to the line is THE MOST BASIC principle of “tactics” from children level of bike racing:
- first of trio attacks, isolated guy goes with him, others follow,
- when group is together second guy of trio attacks….isolated guy closes the gap again,
- then third of trio attacks ……and so on, till isolated guy have no energy left.
There is 99% chance that in the end isolated guy is spent and loses.

So if in the group, in which are 3 teams with 3 or 2 riders (QS, ASTANA, BMC) there is NO WAY that isolated guy should be the one who should close gaps - it is in light of aforementioned 3 vs 1 scenario completely *** idea. Because if the others waited for Sagan to do the work they basically put him in 3 v 1 scenario so they decided that he loses…except that ....ups...they lost too. So from tactical point of view in yesterday situation The Others SHOULD immediately, without thinking, knowing elementary principle of cycling, close Terpstra and if they did not, it was THEIR tactical failure, on the other hand Sagan MUST NOT be the one closing gaps…..if he does ti would be HIS failure!

ad 2) mantra-statement:
The gap between Terpstra and Sagan after Paterberg was cca 35-37’’ second. The distance form Paterberg to the line is cca 13 km. So we are speaking about 13 km time trial after 252 km racing in legs. Even one of best timetrialist of history Cancellara could not close gap of 13 sec to Sagan in 2016. So I guess that to close 30 second gap on 13 km after 250 km ALONE is almost impossible - at least sure for Sagan who is unfortunately not best timetrialist(maybe among the first third of peloton in short ones, 10 - 15 km). So no, fact that Sagan did not closed the gap to Terpstra AFTER Paterberg, mano a mano, is NOT a proof, that Terpstra is stronger then Sagan. It is only proof that he was strong enough to hold on the 30 sec advantage.

ad 3) mantra-statement:
Well Sagan is usualy interviewed after race and he is asked to describe what was happened there in the crucial moments of the races. And I believe that it was the EXACT description of what happened there - rest of group waited the isolated Sagan to close the gap - again, it was amateurish failure from rest of group - it is basic math - simple as that. And Sagan is also simple and pretty straightforward in his interviews - he says things as he sees them - without sugarcoating. So usually, first of all, his “complains” are answers to questions what happend. Ok, is there also complaining? I thing he is pretty pissed of because he is victory type of personality and he hate defeats - but this is only part of truth - the other part of truth is, that he is dealing with his disappointment quite good - in his after-loss interview i always hear mixture of his fighter-pittbull-temperament on one side and his joyful easy-stoic approach to life on other side - so in his answers, with the fact that he is REALLY NOT a master of public-presentation-verbality not even in his native language, we are often confronted with this confusing cocktail of his opposing feelings and opposing features of his personality. So yes, there surely is complaining ingredient but together with accepting of tactical nature of cycling and together with respect to winner and together with his stoic tommorow-is-next-race-attitude. In my opinion then, complaining is not definitory aspect of Sagan - quite opposite he strike me as a person with glimpses of quite philosophical meta-view to “ups” and “downs” of his cycling and life.

And ad Cancellara analogy- Cancellara was in the same situation during his career, true - but by all means HE WAS COMPLAINING LOUD AND CLEAR as well - but, let’s admit - it is only natural in such a situations.

ad 4) statement:
Only way how he can individually deal with this situation is somehow become masterlevel timetrialist able of long range solo rides from 50 - 40 km to the line.
Or somehow to get 3 guys to his team to be able be with him to 5 km from line to avoid 3 to 1 scenario.

Excellent post.

 

[ClassicomanoLuigi]

Re: Re:

the other part of truth is, that he is dealing with his disappointment quite good - in his after-loss interview i always hear mixture of his fighter-pittbull-temperament on one side and his joyful easy-stoic approach to life on other side - so in his answers, with the fact that he is REALLY NOT a master of public-presentation-verbality not even in his native language, we are often confronted with this confusing cocktail of his opposing feelings and opposing features of his personality. So yes, there surely is complaining ingredient but together with accepting of tactical nature of cycling and together with respect to winner and together with his stoic tommorow-is-next-race-attitude. In my opinion then, complaining is not definitory aspect of Sagan - quite opposite he strike me as a person with glimpses of quite philosophical meta-view to “ups” and “downs” of his cycling and life

Best analysis of Sagan's personality I have ever seen on this site. That is very perceptive and agree completely

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

Sagan is overrated in these kind of races.

He's explosive, but cannot hold a gap. So then it's hard to win. He had one year where he did hold the gap. But now seems to have lost even that quality again

He maybe should try ardennes insted of cobbles than. But yeah. He is quite poor roleur and in small groups nobody wants to collaborate with him. Almost impossible for him to win

This I said three years ago. Ardenas are much better for him.

Only Amstel. Other two he can not win, he would need to shred at least 5 kilos for that.

Amstel maybe. However for Fleche Wallone and LBL he needs to wait until Valverde retires and even then it's unlikely unless he sheds several kilos and starts climbing better.

To me seems that he's doing the contrary and becoming heavyer (thus worsening his climbing) in the last years, i tought that he could have contested Liege but at the moment i've changed my mind, on sunday when he had the moto just next to him was evident how big he's now (legs, arms, shoulders).

He's not anymore the rider that in 2012 was 3rd at Amstel and in 2013 even 12th on Huy, at his only try in Fleche, after winning Brabantse (just to cite Ardennes but until 2015 had a lot of interesting climbing performances).

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

Imo for Roubaix Bora should be more offensive than cotrolling the race. Bodnar, Burghardt and Oss are more suited to Roubaix than Ronde. Maybe Burghardt or Bodnar should try some early attack. Would be good if Oss race was similar as last year. Easier to said than did of course.

I hope so too. But for Sagan to win, it must come to a sprint, he won't win solo this year, that's for sure. The more I see, the more I start to think, that for some reason he really is targeting Innsbruck.

What makes you think he is targeting Innsbruck? The fact that he doesn't seem to be at 100% right now?

Even if he was targeting the WC, which I don't think he is given that it's a climber's course, he'd still try to be as good as possible for the classics no matter what. I don't see how the two are related at all.

Well, first of all, he himself expressed multiple times, that he could go for it, in some interviews I have read in slovak newspaper. He usually strongly denies the ability to be a contender where he is not, e.g. for LBL he keeps insisting that the race is not for him. With Insbruck being even more demanding, I guess the 4th WC title could the driving factor.

Also, somebody mentioned, that Italian commentators stated, he looks 2kg lighter.

In addition, he clearly lost the endurance he had last years, as we could see in E3 and Flanders. Last year, he would get to Terpstra and Lampaert I think, and he would not run out of steam after the patterberg in Flanders. As I believe the endurance came with increased weight, and for Insbruck he needs to be lighter. And as you stated, he still was not ready to fully sacrifice the spring, he only lost something pre spring and will continue to loose weight during the year.

For me, the arguments start to add up. However, I do think that it's stupid idea and he shouldn't do it.

 

[cyclopsnoobie]

Re: Re:

Hello guys, can somebody compare character of Insbruck route with Firenze route from 2013? Are they any similar/nonsimilar?

I am asking because in Firenze he finished 6th with 34 sec loss to Rui Costa, behind such a riders as Valverde and Nibali who for example both had 15 sec loss.
Somebody can say, that 30 sec gap on winer is not enough to be competitive in such races - but in this particular race he had mechanical and had massive time loss on a main group - he had to chase and work back to peloton …..and not once but twice - so I assume, that without such amount of chasing work he could be more fresh in finale and could finish better or at least with lesser gap than 34 sec - if so, we could say he was to some degree competitive in this race.

So, if there is some similarity between toughness and character of those two tracks can we infer that to be competitive in Insbruck is in scope of his abilities, so he can be there in finale with favourites?

Pleas, somebody who has more detailed knowledge about those two routes, what is your opinion?

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

Hello guys, can somebody compare character of Insbruck route with Firenze route from 2013? Are they any similar/nonsimilar?

I am asking because in Firenze he finished 6th with 34 sec loss to Rui Costa, behind such a riders as Valverde and Nibali who for example both had 15 sec loss.
Somebody can say, that 30 sec gap on winer is not enough to be competitive in such races - but in this particular race he had mechanical and had massive time loss on a main group - he had to chase and work back to peloton …..and not once but twice - so I assume, that without such amount of chasing work he could be more fresh in finale and could finish better or at least with lesser gap than 34 sec - if so, we could say he was to some degree competitive in this race.

So, if there is some similarity between toughness and character of those two tracks can we infer that to be competitive in Insbruck is in scope of his abilities, so he can be there in finale with favourites?

Pleas, somebody who has more detailed knowledge about those two routes, what is your opinion?

Hi, the Insbruck route is definitely tougher than Firenze. It could be compared more to Rio, maybe slightly tougher. If he would win it, it would be in a similar way as GVA won the olympics. Not that he would need all the climbers in the first group to crash out, but to be in front early and on top of the last hill be to by in front group or close enough to be able to come back on the descent. Something similar like he did last year in T-A. There he was dropped on on the penultimate climbed, than he chased back and on the last hill, everybody was so "afraid" that they didn't not attack. Very slow pace of the whole race and leaving all the attacks on the last hill could also theretically result in him being able to close the gap on the descent, ...