Dazed and Confused said:
Doubt he will go well. Too steep.
But lets not forget Rolland has made the race over 3-4 stages.
Today was the first time Quintana made a move and it was partly prompted by yet another initiative by Rolland.
Take Rolland out of this race and we would be looking at the dullest version of a GT since TdF '12.
Rolland will have a hard time getting the podium, although he utterly deserves it. I even fear him dropping out of the top5 which would be a shame. there are 3 decisive stages left :
- Thursday and the ascent to the Panarotta refuge. This is the stage best tailored for him with a long hard climb with constant 8/9% gradients. For him to make the podium he would have to be able to put some distance with his rivals on that climb.
- Friday the Cronoscalata will hurt him a bit : he is just bad at itt and will lose some time on the first 7 flat ks. The rest of the climb should be ok, but there is a psychological element in ITT that doesn't sit well with him anyway, it's like he needs to know that there are riders behind him to give his best. Still he should be solid, no disaster looming, but I could see most of the other podium contenders putting him 30 seconds behind or more.
- Saturday the Zoncolan is unfortunately too steep for him. he is a big guy, who likes to push big big gears, not pedal real fast. He isn't fat by any means, but those horrible gradients are where the smaller Arus and Pozzos should hurt him.
My hope is that out of the 8 guys fighting for the podium a couple really fade (Evans, hopefully one or two more) and he can hang on to a top 5 finish. It would be a well deserved prize for all he has done for the race. But if you asked me today what is his most likely final rank, I would say 6/7th, which is a shame.
It is really too bad he was 200 meters short yesterday, had he managed to stay past that steep part with Quintana and Hesjedal, he would have had 2,5ks of wheel sucking on some flat and would have lost 30 seconds instead of 1mn10. And those 40 seconds might be the difference in the end between finishing 3rd and finishing 6th.