Podium 2012 tour result if Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck competed?

[FoxxyBrown1111]

FoxxyBrown1111. You are being very diplomatic with your time gaps, but I like them. Is that for final general classification or after first TT ?

Actually it´s the offical gaps, + where i put AC 1 second faster than Nibali, so he just makes the podium to please this thread.

 

[cineteq]

1 Contador
2 Wiggins +1.30
3 Froome +4.30
4 A Schleck +6.00

If Contador were there, then Froome would've been out of podium, since he would've had to fulfill his domestique duties.

 

[jilbiker]

Don't underestimate Contador when it comes to TT...



Rider 1: Rider 2:
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto 8 - 5 WIGGINS Bradley

Nbr Race date Race Rider 1 Rider 2
1 23/07/2009 Tour de France, Stage 18 : Annecy I.T.T. 1. 6.
2 7/07/2009 Tour de France, Stage 4 : Montpellier T.T.T. 1. 2.
3 4/07/2009 Tour de France, Stage 1 : Monaco I.T.T. 2. 3.
4 8/03/2009 Paris - Nice, Stage 1 : Amilly I.T.T. 1. 2.
5 1/06/2008 Giro d'Italia, Stage 21 : Cesano Maderno - Milano I.T.T. 11. 4.
6 26/05/2008 Giro d'Italia, Stage 16 : San Vigilio di Marebbe - Plan de Corones I.T.T. 4. 99.
7 20/05/2008 Giro d'Italia, Stage 10 : Pesaro - Urbino I.T.T. 2. 157.
8 10/05/2008 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1 : Palermo T.T.T. 7. 3.
9 21/07/2007 Tour de France, Stage 13 : Albi I.T.T. 6. 4.
10 7/07/2007 Tour de France, Prologue : London (GBr) I.T.T. 15. 4.
11 13/06/2007 Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, Stage 3 : Anneyron I.T.T. 35. 44.
12 10/06/2007 Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, Prologue : Grenoble I.T.T. 18. 1.
13 5/03/2006 Paris - Nice, Prologue : Issy-les-Moulineaux I.T.T. 4. 7.

The TTT's should be deleted of course, so it would be 7-4 for Contador.

Very interesting to see that a Contador intrinsically (from the start) can match Wiggins, who is a pure TT'er and track specialist (especially in the early years), in all kinds of time trials.

I am shocked that AC's TT ability is so underrated. He has beaten Wiggins in TDF TT at least once. With the amount of TT for this year and the soft mtns, I am sure he would have practiced as intensely as Wiggins for TT. I reckon AC in top form would have equaled or beaten Wiggins in TT this year.

 

[taiwan]

Can't do gaps.

If Bert and Andy opened up on the climbs, Sky would have had to go to plan B and send Froome after them alone, with e.g. Rogers pacing Wiggins up. Froome would have taken time on Bert in the chronos. Andy woud have dropped heaps of time in those.

1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Wiggins

What am I saying?!

 

[airstream]

The men pushed up to 500 watts during 3-4k, but Contador would of pushed 520? Lol, where do you dwell? People take reality having difficulty. Froome got over entire Tour with something in tank and we'll never know how much he really had.

As for PdBF, I really doubt Andy and Alberto could have done anything whatsoever.

 

[taiwan]

The men pushed up to 500 watts during 3-4k, but Contador would of pushed 520? Lol, where do you dwell? People take reality having difficulty.

As for PdBF, I really doubt Andy and Alberto could have done anything whatsoever.

IDK, Bert attacks do so much damage normally that even at a high tempo you'd think he could pull something out. The point of the thread is that Bert, Andy > the GC field this year. For sure Rujano woud have to rethink his tagline though. I anticipate some comical climbing displays during the Vuelta.

 

[LaFlorecita]

The men pushed up to 500 watts during 3-4k, but Contador would of pushed 520? Lol, where do you dwell? People take reality having difficulty. Froome got over entire Tour with something in tank and we'll never know how much he really had.

As for PdBF, I really doubt Andy and Alberto could have done anything whatsoever.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it all about W/kg? Alberto weighs 5-6 kg less than Wiggo so with the same watts he goes faster. But then again I'm not sure so as I said correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[taiwan]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it all about W/kg? Alberto weighs 5-6 kg less than Wiggo so with the same watts he goes faster. But then again I'm not sure so as I said correct me if I'm wrong.

Contador is lighter ---> will require less Watts to climb at the same speed as Wiggins. Therefore if he can push the same wattage as Wiggins his W/kg will be better and he can climb faster. Dunno for sure he can push the same wattage as Wiggins though, or if his W/kg is better at all.

 

[UpTheRoad]

The men pushed up to 500 watts during 3-4k, but Contador would of pushed 520? Lol, where do you dwell? People take reality having difficulty. Froome got over entire Tour with something in tank and we'll never know how much he really had.

As for PdBF, I really doubt Andy and Alberto could have done anything whatsoever.

Contador and an in-form Andy Schleck can climb faster than the Sky train. No matter what the powermeters say, on the road AC and AS can get up a inclined road faster than the Sky guys.

Maybe on a long, steady-state effort the Sky train can hang, but Contador's climbing is marked by violent accelerations -- repeated ones if necessary. None of the Sky train can keep up with that. Not even Froome.

They would do very well to limit their losses, but they would still lose time.

 

[Armanius]

Contador and an in-form Andy Schleck can climb faster than the Sky train. No matter what the powermeters say, on the road AC and AS can get up a inclined road faster than the Sky guys.

Maybe on a long, steady-state effort the Sky train can hang, but Contador's climbing is marked by violent accelerations -- repeated ones if necessary. None of the Sky train can keep up with that. Not even Froome.

They would do very well to limit their losses, but they would still lose time.

On the other hand, how long can Contador maintain the violent accelerations? If the Sky train maintains a constant 450, would Contador be able to put enough time on Wiggins (not just beat Wiggins) to make it impossible for Wiggins to get the lead back via the two ITT's?

2013 TDF should be fun!!!

 

[nesocip]

If Contador were there, then Froome would've been out of podium, since he would've had to fulfill his domestique duties.

If Contador was there Froome would be Sky leader after 1st serious attack by Alberto. Sky ****ed up once on the Vuelta, they wouldnt **** up again on the Tour.

 

[Nilsson]

On the other hand, how long can Contador maintain the violent accelerations? If the Sky train maintains a constant 450, would Contador be able to put enough time on Wiggins (not just beat Wiggins) to make it impossible for Wiggins to get the lead back via the two ITT's?

2013 TDF should be fun!!!

The Sky train doesn't maintain a constant of 450 Watts, not for much longer than 15 minutes tops anyway. That story is bull****, unless it's Ferrari all over again (quoting Simone Toccafondi here) It's pretty simple: the Sky train can ride fast, but not that fast for that long. In a 20-minute peak effort, Wiggins puts out, at least, around 0.25 W/kg less than AC. In a TT, Contador can match Wiggins, or maybe lose some in case it's a long, flat, windy TT. If it's a harder TT, it could just as easily be the other way around.

 

[andrew_s]

Are violent accelerations useful, other than just short of the top where you've finished before payback time arrives?
Surely the quickest way to ride from the bottom to the top is at a steady threshold effort,just like a time trial. You never see a time triallist putting in violent accelerations.

On the original question, Andy would have come nowhere. He had no good from right from the start of the year until he fell off in the Dauphinée, where he lost 5 minutes in the first three stages.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

compare the climbing times of this years final climbs and Wiggins and Froome and calculate watts and the insane wattages claimed here don't hold. In fact, they are 0.2 w/kg weaker than Contador on his best performances.
That's massive

Contador is a level above these dudes. Don't you get it?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Can we please stop asking stupid hypothetical questions like this? We get it, everyone on here hates Sky and worships Alberto Contador. We don't need a new thread on it every single day.

It's not about loving Contador or hating Sky.

It's about how the Tour (and stage racing where Sky's A team has shown up in general) has been exceedingly predictable and that has made it quite dull this year. Because it wasn't this boring in previous years, but it is now, we look at what has changed - and the #1 thing we can spot immediately is "no Contador".

The same thing happened last year, when Gilbert was destroying everybody in the hilly Classics. People were pining for Valverde. Was this because they expected Valverde to crush Gilbert? Not really, it was more because Gilbert was so dominant he was making the races boring. Obviously nobody who was racing against Gilbert could compete. But the races weren't so boring before. Who used to be up there challenging that wasn't there anymore? Valverde. So people rallied around Valverde out of hope that he could break the monotony of Gilbert's dominance, rather than out of genuine love for Bala Verde.

Sky's tactics have been making races dull. We don't want races to be dull. Nobody racing against Sky at the moment can make races interesting, because we've seen them try, and fail, to do so. Therefore we pin our hopes on somebody who has yet to be stomped mercilessly by the Sky train. Hence Alberto gets the optimism squarely on his shoulders.

 

[Bobby G]

compare the climbing times of this years final climbs and Wiggins and Froome and calculate watts and the insane wattages claimed here don't hold. In fact, they are 0.2 w/kg weaker than Contador on his best performances.
That's massive

Contador is a level above these dudes. Don't you get it?

I here ya, but am genuinely excited about AC vs Froome next year. AC should have him, but realistically, we have no idea whether Froome was 2 minutes better than Brad on each MTF or 10seconds better. The Vuelta and next year will be boss!

 

[Panda Claws]

It's not about loving Contador or hating Sky.

It's about how the Tour (and stage racing where Sky's A team has shown up in general) has been exceedingly predictable and that has made it quite dull this year. Because it wasn't this boring in previous years, but it is now, we look at what has changed - and the #1 thing we can spot immediately is "no Contador".

The same thing happened last year, when Gilbert was destroying everybody in the hilly Classics. People were pining for Valverde. Was this because they expected Valverde to crush Gilbert? Not really, it was more because Gilbert was so dominant he was making the races boring. Obviously nobody who was racing against Gilbert could compete. But the races weren't so boring before. Who used to be up there challenging that wasn't there anymore? Valverde. So people rallied around Valverde out of hope that he could break the monotony of Gilbert's dominance, rather than out of genuine love for Bala Verde.

Sky's tactics have been making races dull. We don't want races to be dull. Nobody racing against Sky at the moment can make races interesting, because we've seen them try, and fail, to do so. Therefore we pin our hopes on somebody who has yet to be stomped mercilessly by the Sky train. Hence Alberto gets the optimism squarely on his shoulders.

+1 Good post.

 

[airstream]

Contador and an in-form Andy Schleck can climb faster than the Sky train. No matter what the powermeters say, on the road AC and AS can get up a inclined road faster than the Sky guys.

Maybe on a long, steady-state effort the Sky train can hang, but Contador's climbing is marked by violent accelerations -- repeated ones if necessary. None of the Sky train can keep up with that. Not even Froome.

They would do very well to limit their losses, but they would still lose time.

Yep. In theory, based on previous experience. But in reality Froome and Wiggins turned out to be better than any expectations. There was a rabid lead-out on PdBF plus Sky acted partially in the dark cos then didn't know yet how any of big guns is strong. And to think that Contador and Schleck could have gone off easlily in this case is very presumptuous.

Sky's tactics have been making races dull. We don't want races to be dull.

But we should look up the fact that everyone builds tactics considering its strengths. I think Sky riders extracted maximum of show given their global advantage after Toussuire already. They could simply do nothing and that would of been ok, but they dropped everyone!

 

[The Hitch]

DSQ or 1, depending on how you look at it I guess

DSQ without breaking any rules.

 

[Carols]

Are violent accelerations useful, other than just short of the top where you've finished before payback time arrives?
Surely the quickest way to ride from the bottom to the top is at a steady threshold effort,just like a time trial. You never see a time triallist putting in violent accelerations.

I believe the desired outcome of repeated violent accelerations is to cause your opponents to go into the red in order to stay in contact. Once they have reach the red point, the elastic is snapped and the attacker is free to ride just beneath his own threshold and gain time while the others are in recovery mode. They are also demoralized and must go into limiting loss mode once they recover. It is cracking them by attack as opposed to attrition.

Whether Contador could have pulled this off against the Sky train is unknown. But IMO the only one that could have responded is Froome, leaving Wiggins to be nursed along by Porte and Roders. It is possible that if they did not respond to the accelerations, just let him go and upped their steady pace they may have caught him. But I've never seen anyone manage that against an on form Contador, he simply climbs faster than anyone else with the exception of an on form Andy. And he would have trashed Andy in the ITTS.

All IMO of course

 

[daveinzambia]

It's not about loving Contador or hating Sky.

It's about how the Tour (and stage racing where Sky's A team has shown up in general) has been exceedingly predictable and that has made it quite dull this year. Because it wasn't this boring in previous years, but it is now, we look at what has changed - and the #1 thing we can spot immediately is "no Contador".

The same thing happened last year, when Gilbert was destroying everybody in the hilly Classics. People were pining for Valverde. Was this because they expected Valverde to crush Gilbert? Not really, it was more because Gilbert was so dominant he was making the races boring. Obviously nobody who was racing against Gilbert could compete. But the races weren't so boring before. Who used to be up there challenging that wasn't there anymore? Valverde. So people rallied around Valverde out of hope that he could break the monotony of Gilbert's dominance, rather than out of genuine love for Bala Verde.

Sky's tactics have been making races dull. We don't want races to be dull. Nobody racing against Sky at the moment can make races interesting, because we've seen them try, and fail, to do so. Therefore we pin our hopes on somebody who has yet to be stomped mercilessly by the Sky train. Hence Alberto gets the optimism squarely on his shoulders.

well put, i am a sky fan and now safe in the knowledge that Brad has won it, would love to know how different it would have been with Contador and Schleck. when you see breaks holding time on the front riders does not make you think they were that incredible so how much could those two have taken out of Sky.

Andy would have suffered so much in the TT that do not think he would threaten overall but Alberto. but we will never know.

The interesting thing next year will be seeing how froome copes if he is team leader and is put under pressure. in the past he has gone too deep when feeling ok and then paid for it.

 

[orangerider]

Are violent accelerations useful, other than just short of the top where you've finished before payback time arrives?
Surely the quickest way to ride from the bottom to the top is at a steady threshold effort,just like a time trial. You never see a time triallist putting in violent accelerations.

They work better when you have some kind of collaboration going on. Prime example is Samu and Contador who can attack and attack, so when you pair them they become a deadly combination as they'll do just what you suggest - ride a TT up the mountain once they've distanced themselves enough. And we've seen Contador all too happy to gift stages to a rival team member who rides up with him, so the other guy knows it's not a hopeless effort.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Result with Contador and Schleck:

1. Wiggins
2. Froome
3. Nibali
4. Schleck

Contador abandoned after being right in the middle of the big stage 6 crash.

 

[Nocontest]

I thought that I would have to go a while before I witnessed anything as boring as this years Tour, it was quite depressing....then I found this thread!! Now the Tour doesn't seem so bad..thanks OP!

 

[UpTheRoad]

They work better when you have some kind of collaboration going on. Prime example is Samu and Contador who can attack and attack, so when you pair them they become a deadly combination as they'll do just what you suggest - ride a TT up the mountain once they've distanced themselves enough. And we've seen Contador all too happy to gift stages to a rival team member who rides up with him, so the other guy knows it's not a hopeless effort.

Very true. But even if nobody will join him, Contador can get a gap and can ease off a tad, if required, to catch his breath before having another jump or getting into his rhythm. Those chasing usually either cut their losses or blow up trying to get up to AC.

For this, I am thinking of the Etna stage in the 2011 Giro. Rujano and someone else (?) were ahead when Contador jumped. It was either Nibali or Kreuziger who said that it was much too fast to go with him and they just rode their tempo. Scarponi tried to chase and eventually caught AC. By that time, however, Contador had a chance to recover from the attack and was ready to go again. When he did, Scarponi was done. AC basically did the same thing to Rujano at the end.