Poll: Froome's outcome in the 2020 TdF

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Froome's outcome in the 2020 TdF

  • Winner

    Votes: 11 9.3%
  • Top 5

    Votes: 20 16.9%
  • Super super domestique (similar to Bernal 2018)

    Votes: 26 22.0%
  • Regular INEOS domestique

    Votes: 28 23.7%
  • Doesn't start the race

    Votes: 33 28.0%

  • Total voters
    118
So just Landa, Mas, and Aru, then? You have a really low threshold for "winning" but he may struggle to even accomplish that.
Not may, will.

Most likely scenario IMHO is Froome losing a good amount of time on the first genuine climbing day going too deep trying to hold on, then biding his time until an anonymous transition stage and trying to win from the break before retiring.
 
Reactions: jmdirt
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even if Froome manages to get in great condition in time, the team dynamics and the route are big obstacles to winning. Hard to see him being ahead of Bernal before the hilly ITT, so the win scenario is be really close to Bernal all the way in which case he wouldn't be playing much of a helper roll in order to stay as close as possible (dicey since Jumbo will be attacking) then hope to take 30-60 secs out of Bernal in the ITT? The better chance I suppose is if Bernal has a problem and loses time, but then Froome still has to be better than Roglic, Thomas, Dumo, etc.
 
IMO, the TdF will just be for getting a GT back in his legs, so regular dom (maybe with a stage hunt twinkle).

EDIT: I wouldn't rule out a DNS if his injury is bothering him, but even if his form is off I think that he will start and try to ride into form (that's a way bigger ask than it used to be).
 
Unless he shows a vast improvement from his last race and keeps up with the main riders I don't think he will go to the Tour. If he has massively improved then there is time for him to get it together for the Tour. If not, then I don't think INEOS will take him and let him go all in for the Vuelta. My choice, DNS.
 
DNS. The bigger question is will the Tour go ahead with all this coronavirus gloom and doom? Froome won't get a chance and even if he did I truly doubt he will be competitive based upon everything we know, too many setbacks in his recovery and he isn't young any more. Not going to happen, no more 2018 Giro miracles.
 
If the TDF is raced in July, I don't think Froome will have acquired the form needed for a top 5 or even top 10 GC result. The whole team's activities have been affected both by the Covid-19 situation and by the sudden passing of their sports director. Thus, fewer chances for race participation. We'll see.
 
Think the name of the poll needs changing, as sadly, it won't just be Froome who's outcome in the TDF will be questioned. If prep races can't be raced the GC would be up in the air. Christ, even my mum may have a chance. May just have a look on oddschecker. :D;)
 
If the TDF is raced in July, I don't think Froome will have acquired the form needed for a top 5 or even top 10 GC result. The whole team's activities have been affected both by the Covid-19 situation and by the sudden passing of their sports director. Thus, fewer chances for race participation. We'll see.
Froome was never racing Paris-Nice or Tirreno, so as it stands he hasn’t been unduly affected.

Of course that’s not to say things won’t change over the coming months, as It’s doubtful we will get much racing between now and the summer. But it will be the same for everyone who could have three months (at least) with no racing.

In the meantime he’s smashing out 200km training rides in South Africa.
 
Jun 15, 2020
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Almost everybody is underestimate froome, and at the tour 2020, you will have a surprise. I don t understand this hype around bernal. Yes, he won the last tour, and yes, he is and will be a great cyclist, but he still as a lot to prove, last tour he was beaten in the mountains by pinot, and he needs to get better on trials. Last tour he made the difference in a mountain stage with a lot off altitude, wich suits in. But in the rest off the tour he wasn t the best guy. Bernal, pogacar and evenepoel are the future, but in the present froome is still the best, even if he will be at 90% at the tour.
 
Bernal, pogacar and evenepoel are the future, but in the present froome is still the best, even if he will be at 90% at the tour.
He wasn't even the best the year before his crash. Why would you automatically assume he will be the best, even 2 years older and after such an injury?

I agree a lot of people seem to forget about him, and dismiss him, i could see him get into the mix. But even in form, he wouldn't be my favorite anymore. An outsider, sure.
 
Didn't vote. There needs to be a DNF. Looking at his progression and the way he won, I think Froome was in gradual decline anyway before he crashed. His peak level seemed to be back in 2013. To get back to say 2017 winning level isn't possible even if he didn't crash and now he has young rivals or Bernal who will be stronger. I don't doubt Froome's mental strength. I doubt his body's ability to handle what his head asks for.
 
Reactions: Koronin
Jun 15, 2020
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He wasn't even the best the year before his crash. Why would you automatically assume he will be the best, even 2 years older and after such an injury?

I agree a lot of people seem to forget about him, and dismiss him, i could see him get into the mix. But even in form, he wouldn't be my favorite anymore. An outsider, sure.
He won the giro and
You don't understand the hype surrounding a 22-year-old winner of the biggest race in the world? Alright...
People
You don't understand the hype surrounding a 22-year-old winner of the biggest race in the world? Alright...
I don t understand why people are making of bernal, a unbeatable cyclist, calm down, yes, he won the tour, he is young and already is one of the best in the world in grand tours, but he still needs to improve a lot to be the best. Pinot was better than he in the pyrinees, geraint thomas wasnt in his best shape, froome and dumoulin weren t on the tour, the route was suitable for bernal with a lot of altitude and no itt. This year will be different, the route is less suitable for him, and he will have better opponents. Bernal will be the best in the world in the next 2 or 3 years, but now, he ain t still the man to beat.
 
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Didn't vote. There needs to be a DNF. Looking at his progression and the way he won, I think Froome was in gradual decline anyway before he crashed. His peak level seemed to be back in 2013. To get back to say 2017 winning level isn't possible even if he didn't crash and now he has young rivals or Bernal who will be stronger. I don't doubt Froome's mental strength. I doubt his body's ability to handle what his head asks for.
He made an attack at 80 from the finish in the giro,won the giro,podium in the tour, and he was in already in decline....
 
Well I guess by common standards the man who won the last Tour can be considered the best and the one to beat.
About him and Thomas in the last Tour I am still not sure whether they could not follow Pinot or were not willing to / how much each of them held back because it wasn't clear who was the leader / they did not want to drag anyone... Just not sure how much they gave before the last stage(s).
And very hard to tell as an outsider at which point of his development Bernal was last year.
Anyway I don't see any reason to say "he still needs to improve a lot to be the best" and "still has a lot to prove". I would certainly not say he's unbeatable and I don't remember anyone else here saying that.
Maybe I'm indeed underestimating Froome, but you sure are not giving Bernal the credit he already deserves.
 
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Well I guess by common standards the man who won the last Tour can be considered the best and the one to beat.
About him and Thomas in the last Tour I am still not sure whether they could not follow Pinot or were not willing to / how much each of them held back because it wasn't clear who was the leader / they did not want to drag anyone... Just not sure how much they gave before the last stage(s).
And very hard to tell as an outsider at which point of his development Bernal was last year.
Anyway I don't see any reason to say "he still needs to improve a lot to be the best" and "still has a lot to prove". I would certainly not say he's unbeatable and I don't remember anyone else here saying that.
Maybe I'm indeed underestimating Froome, but you sure are not giving Bernal the credit he already deserves.
I am giving the credit he deserves, i said that he will be the best in the world in the next 2 or 3 years with pogacar, and that already he is one of the best in the world, simply everybody is talking of bernal like he is a unbeatable man, that destroyed everybody in the tour, and thats not the case.
 
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I am giving the credit he deserves, i said that he will be the best in the world in the next 2 or 3 years with pogacar, and that already he is one of the best in the world, simply everybody is talking of bernal like he is a unbeatable man, that destroyed everybody in the tour, and thats not the case.
I understand that in theory, the winner of the tour is the favorite for next year, but in reality, if dumoulin,thomas and froome, are at their best....bernal is still in a level below.
 
I sincerely doubt that. Bernal has had another off season to improve and build yet more base, while Froome still hasn't proven he's fully recovered and is yet another year older, as is Thomas.

Meanwhile, Dumoulin hasn't raced since last year either and there's a good chance he's not the strongest on his team, especially if Roglic times his form correctly.

Then there's Pinot, who knows he missed his chance last year, Landa doesn't have to worry about losing leadership if his first week is bad, Quintana is out for blood...

Thomas and especially Froome have their work cut out.
 
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I sincerely doubt that. Bernal has had another off season to improve and build yet more base, while Froome still hasn't proven he's fully recovered and is yet another year older, as is Thomas.

Meanwhile, Dumoulin hasn't raced since last year either and there's a good chance he's not the strongest on his team, especially if Roglic times his form correctly.

Then there's Pinot, who knows he missed his chance last year, Landa doesn't have to worry about losing leadership if his first week is bad, Quintana is out for blood...

Thomas and especially Froome have their work cut out.
Quintana is in great shape this year. Could be a surprise at the tour. I understand your point of view about that riders, but they can also recover and be in very good shape at the tour, lets se in september. I still think that thomas and froome will recover, and still have 2 good years left.
 

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