Poll: Froome's outcome in the 2020 TdF

Page 3 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Froome's outcome in the 2020 TdF

  • Winner

    Votes: 11 9.3%
  • Top 5

    Votes: 20 16.9%
  • Super super domestique (similar to Bernal 2018)

    Votes: 26 22.0%
  • Regular INEOS domestique

    Votes: 28 23.7%
  • Doesn't start the race

    Votes: 33 28.0%

  • Total voters
    118
Froome still has to prove he's successfully recovered from an injury no one has successfully returned from yet. Like someone else said, I don't doubt his mental toughness, physically is another story.
This.

No doubting Froome's mental strength. Just not convinced he can get back to his 2012 - 18 level.

The other wildcard this year is going to be Greenedge. Chaves sounds like the fire is back, the Yates bros will be keen for a scrap and chances are they're going to be racing to save the team. I also hope that this is the year Haig kicks on, would love to see some great results for him.
 
Reactions: Koronin
Jun 15, 2020
80
32
230
This.

No doubting Froome's mental strength. Just not convinced he can get back to his 2012 - 18 level.

The other wildcard this year is going to be Greenedge. Chaves sounds like the fire is back, the Yates bros will be keen for a scrap and chances are they're going to be racing to save the team. I also hope that this is the year Haig kicks on, would love to see some great results for him.
I agree, its a dangerous trio, i am also curious to se the duo barguil/quintana, they will be a threat for everyody this year.
 
This.

No doubting Froome's mental strength. Just not convinced he can get back to his 2012 - 18 level.

The other wildcard this year is going to be Greenedge. Chaves sounds like the fire is back, the Yates bros will be keen for a scrap and chances are they're going to be racing to save the team. I also hope that this is the year Haig kicks on, would love to see some great results for him.
A bit strange to bring up Chavez and Haig when discussing whether Froome might still be able to win. What exactly are you expecting from them?

For me the three wildcards are Froome, Quintana and Dumoulin.
 
Last edited:
If Froome were a stock, potential buyers would be warned of high volatility. Almost anything could happen. I think winning the TDF (if there is one) is unlikely, but I could see it happen if everything falls (maybe literally, in some cases) into place. A key rival crashes out. Another gets caught in a peloton split in an early flat stage. A third unexpectedly bonks on a MTF. Froome is still going to have to prove he's stronger than several or more riders who appear to be stronger than he is, but it could happen. He won't make dumb mistakes, and if a chance to gain a little time on a stage where that isn't expected opens up, he will know how to take advantage of that.

At the other end of the spectrum, I could see Froome not even challenging for top five, or even top ten. It isn't just because of his expected age-related decline in performance and questionable recovery from the accident. He may be vulnerable to other problems. One of the big factors in LA's post-retirement performance was that he suddenly began crashing, a problem he never had to any serious extent during those seven previous years. Being older, and out of racing for several years, probably affected his reaction time, and just his ability to judge how close he could stay to other riders, take certain technical stretches of the road, and so on. Even if Froome stays upright, he will have to expend just a little more mental energy to do that, which could detract from his physical output.

Even in his peak seasons, of course, this was a problem. He crashed out of the TDF in 2014, and out of the Vuelta the following year. His 2018 Giro was almost derailed before it began because of a bad fall in training. His accident last year may have been freakish, but it sounds from his own description of what he last remembers that he was either careless, and/or doing something that a younger Froome could have done without a problem. Will he be gun-shy when he starts racing again?
 
If Froome were a stock, potential buyers would be warned of high volatility. Almost anything could happen. I think winning the TDF (if there is one) is unlikely, but I could see it happen if everything falls (maybe literally, in some cases) into place. A key rival crashes out. Another gets caught in a peloton split in an early flat stage. A third unexpectedly bonks on a MTF. Froome is still going to have to prove he's stronger than several or more riders who appear to be stronger than he is, but it could happen. He won't make dumb mistakes, and if a chance to gain a little time on a stage where that isn't expected opens up, he will know how to take advantage of that.

At the other end of the spectrum, I could see Froome not even challenging for top five, or even top ten. It isn't just because of his expected age-related decline in performance and questionable recovery from the accident. He may be vulnerable to other problems. One of the big factors in LA's post-retirement performance was that he suddenly began crashing, a problem he never had to any serious extent during those seven previous years. Being older, and out of racing for several years, probably affected his reaction time, and just his ability to judge how close he could stay to other riders, take certain technical stretches of the road, and so on. Even if Froome stays upright, he will have to expend just a little more mental energy to do that, which could detract from his physical output.

Even in his peak seasons, of course, this was a problem. He crashed out of the TDF in 2014, and out of the Vuelta the following year. His 2018 Giro was almost derailed before it began because of a bad fall in training. His accident last year may have been freakish, but it sounds from his own description of what he last remembers that he was either careless, and/or doing something that a younger Froome could have done without a problem. Will he be gun-shy when he starts racing again?
Interesting comparison to stocks, but I think it works well.

Contador also started having issues with crashing near the end of his career as well. Froome has always had issues with crashing to begin with, so it's possible that could get worse as well.
 
Reactions: SHAD0W93
I don't expect Froome to do well, even in a weak field. He was already declining before the injury. So even if crashes and illnesses from other key riders happen I still don't see it. I just feel that even outsiders have better chance than him. :cool:

I could be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time. :(
 
Jun 15, 2020
80
32
230
I don't expect Froome to do well, even in a weak field. He was already declining before the injury. So even if crashes and illnesses from other key riders happen I still don't see it. I just feel that even outsiders have better chance than him. :cool:

I could be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time. :(
Why you say that he was already declining before the injury? He won the giro with an epic attack at 80 km from the finish, and made a podium at the tour, after won 3 consecutives tours.
 
Jun 15, 2020
80
32
230
That 80 km epic attack was something. Apart from that he wasn't close to dominating like in 2012, 2013, 2015. In 2016 we started to see his lack of strength in the mountains. Again, that's my perception.
I respect your opinion, but i disagree. In 2016 he won the tour, he didn t attack so much in the mountains because there wasn t almost mountain summits. In 2017 and 2018 froome had 2 goals, the tour 2017/vuelta 2017, and giro 2018/tour 2018. He just fall in that last tour because he was tired after ride 3 consecutive tours, and like i said, in 2017 and 2018 he had 2 goals in each season, so in his preparation for that tours, he tried to sustain a good form for 2 or 3 months to win that consecutive grand tours, and with strategy its difficult to peak your best shape of your life.
 
Reactions: Poursuivant
Jun 15, 2020
80
32
230
I respect your opinion, but i disagree. In 2016 he won the tour, he didn t attack so much in the mountains because there wasn t almost mountain summits. In 2017 and 2018 froome had 2 goals, the tour 2017/vuelta 2017, and giro 2018/tour 2018. He just fail in that last tour because he was tired after ride 3 consecutive tours, and like i said, in 2017 and 2018 he had 2 goals in each season, so in his preparation for that tours, he tried to sustain a good form for 2 or 3 months to win that consecutive grand tours, and with strategy its difficult to peak your best shape of your life.
 
But in the Giro 2018 he sucked on a lot of stages. He was clearly below his best and generally very stable level throughout the race except for a rare peak on Monte Zoncolan and then an incredible hail mary on stage 19, where Dumoulin screwed up.

It's true that his two-peak seasons in 2017 and 2018 were different from usually and might have been what got him to look weaker (even though he still got the results), but his bad days were very bad and thinking about how he was going last spring it was almost Nibali-like bad in the week-long races, which we just didn't see at his imperious best five to seven years ago.
 
Reactions: Cookster15
Jan 18, 2020
195
87
430
In the giro he wasn't just the strongest on Zoncolan and Finestre but the last week of the race, attacking on Prato Nevoso and then on the final stage when Dumoulin attacked him he shut it down with ease. Would assume the reason he was so much stronger in the last week is because of a combination of two peaks and the early crash rather than his powers waning. The only time I can remember him being remotely threatened in any grand tour he won other than that giro was the 2015 tour, it seemed to me that in 2016 and 2017 he was just coasting and winning very comfortably.
 
Jun 15, 2020
80
32
230
But in the Giro 2018 he sucked on a lot of stages. He was clearly below his best and generally very stable level throughout the race except for a rare peak on Monte Zoncolan and then an incredible hail mary on stage 19, where Dumoulin screwed up.

It's true that his two-peak seasons in 2017 and 2018 were different from usually and might have been what got him to look weaker (even though he still got the results), but his bad days were very bad and thinking about how he was going last spring it was almost Nibali-like bad in the week-long races, which we just didn't see at his imperious best five to seven years ago.
In the giro 2018, froome didn t started the race in is best shape, and with the crashes during the giro....that s the explanation for that miserable performance in a lot of stages. Let s see if he can recover at 100% for the injury, and be at great shape at the tour, ir will be difficult, but if somebody can, is froome.
 
Jun 15, 2020
80
32
230
In the giro he wasn't just the strongest on Zoncolan and Finestre but the last week of the race, attacking on Prato Nevoso and then on the final stage when Dumoulin attacked him he shut it down with ease. Would assume the reason he was so much stronger in the last week is because of a combination of two peaks and the early crash rather than his powers waning. The only time I can remember him being remotely threatened in any grand tour he won other than that giro was the 2015 tour, it seemed to me that in 2016 and 2017 he was just coasting and winning very comfortably.
In 2015 he had some troubles in the end of the tour, but he won, and it was a shame that he had that crash in the vuelta 2015, he could won that vuelta.
 
I have to admit it's very hard to estimate Froome's "real" level and therefor how far he was from it at which time.
I think he did not look totally dominant in the last years and I don't think he will win this year, but then there was a time when one would not have thought he might win several GTs once. He looked weak on several stages but then Skyneos are less and less interested in anything but the tour and their main GT GC riders don't ride much apart from races they absolutely need to anyway. So what is weakness, what is a slightly failed (by several days)peak strategy? What is weakness, what is waiting for the last moment? I find it hard to tell, indeed. He might surprise everybody like he has in the past. But the feeling says no.
 
Reactions: tobydawq
Jul 20, 2019
220
42
1,080
Interesting comparison to stocks, but I think it works well.

Contador also started having issues with crashing near the end of his career as well. Froome has always had issues with crashing to begin with, so it's possible that could get worse as well.
Contador started crashing frequently as soon as 2011. That is what cost him the double that year, he lost time on stage 1, and then crashed hard in the Massif Central
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY