Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[oldcrank]

Einstein may not have been the best mathematician, but one of his quotes is often very true:

"As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."

Another quote that sometimes is attributed to Mr. Einstein applies rather
well here, too: "Everything that can be counted does not necessarily
count, everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted."

Perhaps in the context of this thread "with any degree of certainty"
could be tacked on to the end of the quote...although perhaps that
is implied in the original and more concise quote.

 

[webvan]

Yeah, doubting is one thing, but when it reaches the point where nothing that happens/is written will make you change your mind, it's just "wrong", an "omerta clinic" so to speak.

Anyway, ES say that Horner climbed Pena Cabarga in 16'43" vs Froome's 16'58" in 2011, just passing on the info, haven't checked.

 

[sniper]

btw,
on his homepage which seems up to date horner is 140lbs, which amounts to 63.5 kg.
if he started the stage with 63.5kg, how much would he have weighed at the start of the climb?

 

[Bavarianrider]

btw,
on his homepage which seems up to date horner is 140lbs, which amounts to 63.5 kg.
if he started the stage with 63.5kg, how much would he have weighed at the start of the climb?

i highly doubt those 63 Kilos. Looks thinner to me.

 

[Netserk]

btw,
on his homepage which seems up to date horner is 140lbs, which amounts to 63.5 kg.
if he started the stage with 63.5kg, how much would he have weighed at the start of the climb?

This is what 131313 posted earlier in this thread:

I can't tell you with 100% certain what Chris Horner weighed at the start of the climb. I'm sure he can't tell you that either. However, here's what I can tell you: I know how much I weigh. I know how much most of my teammates weigh. I can tell you what Horner looked like at Utah, as compared to what he looked like in years past (when his weight was listed also at 64-65K). I can also tell you he looks absolutely nothing like he did then. I can also tell you what I weigh at the end of a 100 mile-ish stage (generally 1.5-2kg less than when I started). That's pretty typical among other riders, at least in hot weather.

So, I have enough information to made a pretty well-educated guess that if he was 65kg at the start of that climb, I'm moving over to body building.

 

[sniper]

This is what 131313 posted earlier in this thread:

yeah, i followed the discussion upthread and was surprised to see acoggan adopt the 65kg without further questioning (until 131313 addressed it).
I'm pretty inclined to go with 131313 here, which would put horner's weight at around 62kg max (and his starting weight may well be less than 63.5kg) at the start of a stage-final climb.

 

[whatsperkilo]

I'll agree with what some posters are saying, ie. that if you don't know the weight & you don't know the wattage, then the w/kg that's 'estimated' is telling us nothing/nada/zilch !
It's absolutely pointless &

As regards this years Vuelta and it's climbs, MTF's, steep gradients, the parcours is really favoring old man Horner. He's excelling (out of the saddle) on the steep stuff with these high intensity (eg. 2*15 min) bursts.
/note: the performance he's putting in is............unbelievable!, given his age, his surgery, his race fitness, his recovery day-to-day, his team, his opposition.

From his data on the SRM.de site on the Hazallanas climb, he did 393W for 14.52mins, but the big Q is, what's his exact weight ??

@ 65kg = 6.05w/kg
@ 63.5kg = 6.19w/kg
@ 62kg = 6.34w/kg

So, quite a discrepancy there for just a small difference in weight.

 

[Race Radio]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gazzetta-dello-sport-scrutinizes-horners-power-data-at-the-vuelta

Gazzetta questioning Horners number. A few mistakes/questions

What weight do they use for Horner to calculate w/kg? I think it is too high as yesterday he was likely 7 w/kg for 16:40

6.2 w/kg is "The line" but for 30+ minutes, not 16.

 

[Netserk]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gazzetta-dello-sport-scrutinizes-horners-power-data-at-the-vuelta

Gazzetta questioning Horners number. A few mistakes/questions

What weight do they use for Horner to calculate w/kg? I think it is too high as yesterday he was likely 7 w/kg for 16:40

6.2 w/kg is "The line" but for 30+ minutes, not 16.

They are using 64kg.

Italian sports newspaper Gazzetta dello Sport has scrutinized Chris Horner's performance during Thursday's stage at the Vuelta a Espana, calculating that the 41-year-old American produced a record breaking VAM of 2034 and a power-to-weight ratio of 6.83 watts/kg on the climb to the finish at Peña Cabarga.

Gazzetta reporter Claudio Ghisalberti said that Horner covered the 4.9km climb In a time of 16:40 at an average speed of 21.240km/h, producing an average of 437 watts.

437 / 6.83 = 63.98

 

[Race Radio]

They are using 64kg.



437 / 6.83 = 63.98

That is what I thought. I don't believe it. 62 is more likely and given this is the 3rd week of a GT it could be less

Horner is by far the lightest I have ever seen him

 

[Netserk]

That is what I thought. I don't believe it. 62 is more likely and given this is the 3rd week of a GT it could be less

Horner is by far the lightest I have ever seen him

Yeah so it should be closer to 7W/kg.

As for wind:

Winds: The wind will be light in almost all this stage. It will blow from Northeast in the first half of the journey becoming from North in the second one. It will be contrary and from right side for the riders from Burgos to the last climb of Peña Cabarga, becoming favourable for the cyclists in this last climb.

Note however that although it was favourable, it was weak, and the climb isn't exactly ridden in a straight line:

 

[whatsperkilo]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gazzetta-dello-sport-scrutinizes-horners-power-data-at-the-vuelta

Gazzetta questioning Horners number. A few mistakes/questions

What weight do they use for Horner to calculate w/kg? I think it is too high as yesterday he was likely 7 w/kg for 16:40

6.2 w/kg is "The line" but for 30+ minutes, not 16.

Does this qualify as 'ironic', ie. Gazzetta questioning Horner's data when they've just 'estimated' his wattage, his weight & hence his w/kg LOL

His VAM is going to be high because of the gradient but from this to estimate the watts & w/kg is very..............amateur.

Actually they have the length of the climb wrong aswell doh!

 

[Race Radio]

Yeah so it should be closer to 7W/kg.

As for wind:


Note however that although it was favourable, it was weak, and the climb isn't exactly ridden in a straight line:

Yeah, Gazzetta did mention a tailwind but hard to see a big advantage, but it is a short climb

 

[zigmeister]

Yet, his power meter showed 390w....they must have altered the data file and changed every one second interval recorded power number to show a lower wattage...typical tampering.

 

[Netserk]

Yet, his power meter showed 390w....they must have altered the data file and changed every one second interval recorded power number to show a lower wattage...typical tampering.

Wasn't that (390W) from stage 10?

 

[zigmeister]

^Yes, but Stage 10 for the PM he released is what really exploded the thread regarding his performance.

But according to the article, that was nothing compared to Stage 18 which he improved even more to nearly reclaim the jersey.

Wonder how JRod was able today to have such an amazing finish, along with 3 other people who smoked Horner the final 2km also?!?!

 

[maltiv]

Does this qualify as 'ironic', ie. Gazzetta questioning Horner's data when they've just 'estimated' his wattage, his weight & hence his w/kg LOL

His VAM is going to be high because of the gradient but from this to estimate the watts & w/kg is very..............amateur.

Actually they have the length of the climb wrong aswell doh!

No, it's not. Have you never heard of the principles of estimation? The margin of error is very low in these kind of calculations.

There's nothing "ironic" in estimating variables, unless you don't trust any sort of scientific research

 

[acoggan]

If you're only 1kg wrong it will result in less than 0.5% error. Not exactly garbage....

It's a saying - get over it.

 

[acoggan]

The margin of error is very low in these kind of calculations.

The collated data of Sorensen's that I cited up-thread is the best compilation I have seen (although I have hardly looked). What it shows is that while the power estimated using our model is usually w/in a couple of % of the measured power, that isn't always the case, with the difference sometimes being as large as 5%, even when the estimates are done by an "interested party".

 

[acoggan]

yeah, i followed the discussion upthread and was surprised to see acoggan adopt the 65kg without further questioning

I used 65 kg simply to be consistent with the source article. I have no idea what Horner actually weighs (nor do I care).

 

[EnacheV]

No, it's not. Have you never heard of the principles of estimation? The margin of error is very low in these kind of calculations.

There's nothing "ironic" in estimating variables, unless you don't trust any sort of scientific research

the same gazzeta that calculated Froome W/kg after the flat ITT ?

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

As for wind:


Note however that although it was favourable, it was weak, and the climb isn't exactly ridden in a straight line:

It doesn't require much wind to introduce a large error in the VAM to W/kg estimation.

 

[BigBoat]

I dont think Horner can quite do 6.8 w/kg for 15 mins, but He maybe can do 6.4 w/kg for that duration. Chris Froome maybe hit upper 6s a couple of times for over 20 mins this year and in 2012.

As far as doping goes do you really think Chris has ridden drug free in a cycling career that dates from 1994 all the way though until now, winning nearly every race ahead of nearly every American and Euro epo users in that period... Again, you have to believe in the tooth fairy, its simply not very likely he's been clean in the past or is currently 100% dope free.

I've seen older cat 1 guys with real jobs and families do over 6.0 w/kg for 8 minutes up a hill, clean maybe not but they compare to what CH is doing. Its possible for an older athlete to perform, drug free or doped, especially doped. I hate it that this has become an attack on his age, but yes the doping innuendo is totally true in my opinion, and is even understated in some respects.

 

[Ferminal]

What is with this highly reasoned posting and where has the old BigBoat gone?

 

[Netserk]

Chris Horner has released his srm data from Peña Cabarga.

http://www.srm.de/news/road-cycling/vuelta-a-espana-stage-18/