Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Inquitus]

Without knowing what he really weighs its all a bit of a moot point I guess. The flat mid section lowers the W/Kg and the avg power somewhat too for the climb.

 

[Juan Speeder]

As far as doping goes do you really think Chris has ridden drug free in a cycling career that dates from 1994 all the way though until now, winning nearly every race ahead of nearly every American and Euro epo users in that period... Again, you have to believe in the tooth fairy, its simply not very likely he's been clean in the past or is currently 100% dope free.

wat..........?

 

[roundabout]

424 watts. Guess Nibali wasn't that far off with his 430.

Oh, and kudos to Papi for releasing the file.

 

[BigBoat]

424 average is HUGE for a 64 kg guy, for a road race of 15 mins. I guess I was wrong about him. For a TT its still very high but those SRM files only account for the average, they dont account for all the little spikes of a road race up a climb. His normalized power was probably even more unreal. Maybe 440 average, which would give an FTP of 420!

I wonder if he doesn't weigh in a little over 64 kg, maybe he's more like 70 kg. That w/kg seems a bit high, even when you compare him to Chris Froome.

 

[Race Radio]

424 average is HUGE for a 64 kg guy, for a road race of 15 mins. I guess I was wrong about him. For a TT its still very high but those SRM files only account for the average, they dont account for all the little spikes of a road race up a climb. His normalized power was probably even more unreal. Maybe 440 average, which would give an FTP of 420!

I wonder if he doesn't weigh in a little over 64 kg, maybe he's more like 70 kg. That w/kg seems a bit high, even when you compare him to Chris Froome.

Chris is not 64 kg, right now he is 62.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

424 average is HUGE for a 64 kg guy, for a road race of 15 mins. I guess I was wrong about him. For a TT its still very high but those SRM files only account for the average, they dont account for all the little spikes of a road race up a climb. His normalized power was probably even more unreal. Maybe 440 average, which would give an FTP of 420!

I would caution on a few fronts:

- this was a little over a 16 minute effort

- NP for less than 20-minutes is not really worth considering if you are trying to equate it with a quasi steady state equivalent power output, and most definitely not for the purposes of estimating a rider's threshold power

- Even then I think you'd want at least 30-minutes for that purpose, bearing in mind that even NP for a hard 60-minute ride can be higher than FTP, although typically no more than 5% over FTP.

- using power output for durations well under an hour as a basis for any estimation of threshold power without other mean maximal data, is prone to a sizeable estimation error / range (10%)

- There's no way FTP is 99% of a 16-min MMP effort, let alone 95% of the 16-min NP value.

 

[BigBoat]

I would caution on a few fronts:

- this was a little over a 16 minute effort

- NP for less than 20-minutes is not really worth considering if you are trying to equate it with a quasi steady state equivalent power output, and most definitely not for the purposes of estimating a rider's threshold power

- Even then I think you'd want at least 30-minutes for that purpose, bearing in mind that even NP for a hard 60-minute ride can be higher than FTP, although typically no more than 5% over FTP.

- using power output for durations well under an hour as a basis for any estimation of threshold power without other mean maximal data, is prone to a sizeable estimation error / range (10%)

- There's no way FTP is 99% of a 16-min MMP effort, let alone 95% of the 16-min NP value.

Yeah, 420 did seem a bit high for FTP, but all the power spikes of a race like that have to be a bit costly! He drafted the whole way up, I know when I'm racing I sure the hell am not trying to go for the highest average watts. He very likely could have gone even higher... That and the 4.5 hours race beforehand. He's definitely approaching 6.3 w/kg, even if his FTP was only 390.

 

[sprenten]

I am not saying Horner is not doping, but his SRM profiles are legit. That is they don't show anything out of the ordinary. Still waiting on the Angrilu SRM.

1. Horner's racing days are very limited leading up the Vuelta.
2. As you age it is harder to recover from maximal efforts.
3. Experience (training age) leads to greater consistency and possibly greater efficiency in racing tactics and strategy (not having to go max).
4. Not a lot of peak power outputs that are crazy in the SRM profiles.
5. His average watts from SRM data on those "suspect" climbs are really only average. Even factoring his weight to get relative measurements like watts per kg he is sitting at the above average range.

Taking those into consideration it seems less likely that Horner is doping than Froome. However, Valverde, Rodriquez, and Nibali all had suspect GT performances from this season and He beat them. The guy with the least suspect profile from the TdF of course wilted in Mollema in his Vuelta ride.

 

[zigmeister]

ROFL...at the power file. His total watts for the race was 221w...that is Cat 4/5 42mile road race power numbers. The guy was coasting the first 3.5hrs of the race just getting a warmup in ready for the 20 minute effort.

I mean wow...for 3.6 miles, he averaged 425 watts...that is incomprehensible. Unheard of.

 

[durianrider]

I used 65 kg simply to be consistent with the source article. I have no idea what Horner actually weighs (nor do I care).

He would be EASILY under 60kg. He makes the podium girls look fat. (Remember, he is standing in FRONT of them... so closer to the camera.)

Im glad CH won cos it shoves that 'Im too old' excuse up the clacker of so many whining riders I know.

 

[Race Radio]

I am not saying Horner is not doping, but his SRM profiles are legit. That is they don't show anything out of the ordinary. Still waiting on the Angrilu SRM.

1. Horner's racing days are very limited leading up the Vuelta.
2. As you age it is harder to recover from maximal efforts.
3. Experience (training age) leads to greater consistency and possibly greater efficiency in racing tactics and strategy (not having to go max).
4. Not a lot of peak power outputs that are crazy in the SRM profiles.
5. His average watts from SRM data on those "suspect" climbs are really only average. Even factoring his weight to get relative measurements like watts per kg he is sitting at the above average range.

Taking those into consideration it seems less likely that Horner is doping than Froome. However, Valverde, Rodriquez, and Nibali all had suspect GT performances from this season and He beat them. The guy with the least suspect profile from the TdF of course wilted in Mollema in his Vuelta ride.

Sorry, I am not an expert..... but 6.55 w/kg for 28 minutes is average?

How about his climbing times, is being the 2nd fastest ever up the Angrilu average? (despite softpedling for 5 minutes km 4-3)

 

[Bobito]

I am not saying Horner is not doping, but his SRM profiles are legit. That is they don't show anything out of the ordinary. Still waiting on the Angrilu SRM.

1. Horner's racing days are very limited leading up the Vuelta.
2. As you age it is harder to recover from maximal efforts.
3. Experience (training age) leads to greater consistency and possibly greater efficiency in racing tactics and strategy (not having to go max).
4. Not a lot of peak power outputs that are crazy in the SRM profiles.
5. His average watts from SRM data on those "suspect" climbs are really only average. Even factoring his weight to get relative measurements like watts per kg he is sitting at the above average range.

Taking those into consideration it seems less likely that Horner is doping than Froome. However, Valverde, Rodriquez, and Nibali all had suspect GT performances from this season and He beat them. The guy with the least suspect profile from the TdF of course wilted in Mollema in his Vuelta ride.

He's 40+. Empirically that's an enormous gigantic tremendous counter indicator to winning any kind of elite sporting event (please don't give Bernard Hopkins as a counter example ...)

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

He's 40+. Empirically that's an enormous gigantic tremendous counter indicator to winning any kind of elite sporting event (please don't give Bernard Hopkins as a counter example ...)

Boxing don´t count anyway. Fixed, corrupted rankings, etc. ...
Same as WWW where 100 yr old Steroid-Hulk fought 100 yr old Steroid-Vince (not Jim) McMahon...

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Sorry, I am not an expert..... but 6.55 w/kg for 28 minutes is average?

How about his climbing times, is being the 2nd fastest ever up the Angrilu average? (despite softpedling for 5 minutes km 4-3)

None of this provides any evidence of doping. Coggan said so.

I think Vayer calls 6.55 w/kg "mutant". Maybe Professor X can start an X-men cycling team built around Horner.

 

[Escarabajo]

None of this provides any evidence of doping. Coggan said so.

I think Vayer calls 6.55 w/kg "mutant". Maybe Professor X can start an X-men cycling team built around Horner.

Really depends on the time used to get that value. The real issue here is age. Because I believe he is really talented.

At least we are getting his power files. Now we need his weight.

 

[131313]

I mean wow...for 3.6 miles, he averaged 425 watts...that is incomprehensible. Unheard of.

for a guy who weighs 62kg, after 3 pretty hard climbs, at the end of a 3 week race? No, it's not unheard of at all. It's just that practically everyone who's ever been able to do that has been found to be doping, and the select few who haven't probably haven't been busted yet.

That file offers some good insight into his FTP, which is probably in the range of 385 or so, or 6.2 w/kg. Unlike some, though, I maintain this isn't new for Horner. Take a look at the who's who of doping in 2006 L-B-L, one of the most comical top-fueled classics. I'm sure it took similar threshold power to make the selection in that race, which he did.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Yeah, 420 did seem a bit high for FTP, but all the power spikes of a race like that have to be a bit costly! He drafted the whole way up, I know when I'm racing I sure the hell am not trying to go for the highest average watts.

Agree, and that just provides additional reasons to be cautious when attempting to guesstimate FTP from such data.

 

[TheGame]

How do we know that Pappi hasn't tampered with the SRM data?

 

[acoggan]

Agree, and that just provides additional reasons to be cautious when attempting to guesstimate FTP from such data.

Are Horner's files available for download somewhere? If so, I could probably come up with a quite accurate value for his FTP (in W, that is...body mass still being uncertain).

 

[acoggan]

How do we know that Pappi hasn't tampered with the SRM data?

I'd say that it is too close to power estimated using our model for that to be likely. Sure, he could have fudged the data by a couple of %, but why bother?

 

[IzzyStradlin]

Chris is not 64 kg, right now he is 62.

62 even seems high to me. Maybe closer to 60? I'm 63.5 kg. Could easily lose 4-5 on a pro training schedule. Horner's about an inch taller than me. 62 wouldn't be super thin.

 

[Ferminal]

Is the Angliru SRM coming? I'd love to see one as it's a weird climb to work out with one section ~7.5% and the other ~14% (with long sections up to 20%) with even a little bit of respite between. I've always wondered if "hidden" gradients (~10% average for whole climb) mess with things.

 

[Fatclimber]

Is the Angliru SRM coming? I'd love to see one as it's a weird climb to work out with one section ~7.5% and the other ~14% (with long sections up to 20%) with even a little bit of respite between. I've always wondered if "hidden" gradients (~10% average for whole climb) mess with things.

Not to mention the response to the multitude of Nibs' attacks. My guess is we won't see that one.

 

[Gregga]

Is the Angliru SRM coming? I'd love to see one as it's a weird climb to work out with one section ~7.5% and the other ~14% (with long sections up to 20%) with even a little bit of respite between. I've always wondered if "hidden" gradients (~10% average for whole climb) mess with things.

Did they even have a SRM crankset on the Angliru ? As almost everyone had a compact one, that's not sure. I didn't get it on the race's pictures for Nib and Horner, but Elissonde had a standard Shim 9000 compact crankset instead of the SRM, of course he's not a leader.

 

[V3R1T4S]

Did they even have a SRM crankset on the Angliru ? As almost everyone had a compact one, that's not sure. I didn't get it on the race's pictures for Nib and Horner, but Elissonde had a standard Shim 9000 compact crankset instead of the SRM, of course he's not a leader.

Yes. See the picture below. Especially zoomed in, you can tell the difference between Rodriguez's non-SRM crankset and Horner's - namely the black circle around the spider.

The Shimano 11-speed SRM has a 110 BCD inner and 130 BCD outer chainring, so it is easy to use the same crank to accommodate compact and standard gears.

I hope he releases the file. Kudos for him releasing previous files.

http://cdn.velonews.competitor.com/files/2013/09/Rodriguez-Hprner-1.jpg