Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Turner29]

Using Obree and Boardman attempting hour records on indoor tracks with no wind resistance and specialised equipment which both had planned for is hardly comparable to riding a climb after a 5 hour + mountainous stage after a week of racing, more like apples and oranges.

Likewise with Vaughters, was that after a 5 hour effort or just going flat out for 15-20 minutes. What were the circumstances??

Mountain top stage finish at Mt. Ventoux.

On a hot day.

 

[Turner29]

Using Obree and Boardman attempting hour records on indoor tracks with no wind resistance and specialised equipment which both had planned for is hardly comparable to riding a climb after a 5 hour + mountainous stage after a week of racing, more like apples and oranges.

...

Merckx and Bahomantes I would have serious issues with accuracy etc.

Inaccuracy works both ways but that Baha estimate was very, very well done and could equally be higher or lower. Same with Merckx.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Quite the opposite. That is, Turner29 and I are the ones speaking in terms of generalities (i.e., the forest), whereas you wish to focus on a specific individual (tree).



"Common sense" is for commoners...I prefer to deal with verifiable facts.

How'd that work out for ya' with Armstrong?

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Quite the opposite. That is, Turner29 and I are the ones speaking in terms of generalities (i.e., the forest), whereas you wish to focus on a specific individual (tree).



"Common sense" is for commoners...I prefer to deal with verifiable facts.

You "verifiable fact(ed)" out of discovering the biggest period of blood doping in the history of cycling, and you expect us to be impressed with your dedication to "verifiable facts?" Psshht. Hey, maybe your buddy Coyle can test and see if Froome has a heart the size of a Domino's medium pizza so we can better understand the phenomenon we witnessed the other day?

 

[Turner29]

You "verifiable fact(ed)" out of discovering the biggest period of blood doping in the history of cycling, and you expect us to be impressed with your dedication to "verifiable facts?" Psshht. Hey, maybe your buddy Coyle can test and see if Froome has a heart the size of a Domino's medium pizza so we can better understand the phenomenon we witnessed the other day?.

Can you try again in reasonably intelligent English, as I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Can you try again in reasonably intelligent English, as I have no idea what you are talking about.

Answer 1: Not my problem.

Answer 2: I wasn't addressing you

Answer 3: Contextual clues will help

Answer 4: Boxers or briefs?

 

[taiwan]

ABP = Athlete Biological Passport?

Anyway, the analogy I was attempting to draw in bringing up evolution is that while genetic alterations may progress at a certain rate on average, that does not mean that such changes are gradual. I could have just as well pointed to the effects of aging; while population data will demonstrate a smooth decline in physiological function, for a given individual such reductions tend to be far less so. By extension, the fact that athletic performances have improved by X% on average over a particular period in time in no way precludes a given individual from exceeding that rate of change (via whatever mechanism).

Within his own career?

 

[Turner29]

Answer 1: Not my problem.

Answer 2: I wasn't addressing you

Answer 3: Contextual clues will help

Answer 4: Boxers or briefs?

The two word reply I had in mind it too short for this forum's software.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

I was thinking only in terms of how athletic records progress in fits-and-starts, not proposing any overall acceleration or specific mechanism (e.g., evolution). Your hypothesis is interesting, however...I wonder, for example, if there is any overall trend in how long a particular record lasts in say, swimming?

http://alex-cycle.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/leaps-and-bounds-of-watery-kind.html

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I was thinking only in terms of how athletic records progress in fits-and-starts, not proposing any overall acceleration or specific mechanism (e.g., evolution). Your hypothesis is interesting, however...I wonder, for example, if there is any overall trend in how long a particular record lasts in say, swimming?

And if we could graph those leaps and bounds against developments in the medical world...

 

[DarkWarrior]

Sorry, that wasn't clear: in bringing up aging (as in, "the sum of all changes that occur with the passage of time leading to senescence and, eventually, death"), I was alluding to the fact that as you grow old, your health tends to decline in distinct steps, rather than smoothly/steadily. For example, an older woman may still be able to live independently at, say, age 80, but then at age 81 breaks their hip...after treatment and recovery they may do okay on their own for a few more years, but then at (say) age 84 contracts the flu which develops into pneumonia. That leads to hospitalization, loss of lean body mass, etc., which puts them into a nursing home. There they reside for a few more years, before passing at (say) age 88 due to other causes. Since events such as these occur at different times and at different rates in different individuals, any population-based averages will tend to show a steady decline, when it is generally not for any given individual.

Thank you for clarifying, I appreciate the response.

My other question re performance gains is probably unanswerable....?

 

[ChewbaccaD]

The two word reply I had in mind it too short for this forum's software.

It isn't a complicated formula to figure out. Can you count to 10?

Actually, I'm feeling generous, so I'll hip you to a solution if it's less than ten characters--> Add enough periods to satisfy the 10 character requirement.

You're welcome.

P.S. If you meant the swear filter, I can help you defeat that one too.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

And if we could graph those leaps and bounds against developments in the medical world...

Such as?

 

[PotentialPro]

http://app.strava.com/pros/186522

This is a link to Laurens ten Dam's strava info. Not sure if it would be of use.

 

[karlboss]

http://app.strava.com/pros/186522

This is a link to Laurens ten Dam's strava info. Not sure if it would be of use.

It is and it isn't. It gives data points for time, distance, speed and altitude. Then makes an estimate of power. This estimate is based on the same calculations that everyone on here uses, so not surprisingly comes up with the same answer. it doesn't consider drafting or wind. From this Ten dam held 6.02w/kg, and then Froome, just by going straight off VAM and gradient was 6.35w/kg

To the other questions of power to weight, these type of calculations and doping. If a power to weight is known there are obviously varying shades of grey. 12w/kg noone has ever suggested that is sustainable aerobically. Then as you slide back to 0 you become more white. However it must be noted some people dope to get to 4.5 other don't to get to 6. What is actually possible? I don't know and I suspect noone really does though some will have a better idea than others. There's too much grey, though as most I'm obviously more suspicious the higher it goes.
Power files can be tampered with, just check horner's data from AToC 2011. He somehow won a MTF at a power that was a mid stage climb earlier in the week...WTF?
These calculations made in this thread are estimates and depending on wind and drafting vary quite a bit. Drafting by about 5%, wind by more.

Lastly on Froome, was a nobody pre vuelta 2011, and now is a world beater pushing armstrong speeds. Though as noted, more fresh and who knows about wind, but if i had to choose one way or the other if he's doping, it isn't a tough call.

 

[PotentialPro]

Not a problem, just wanted to add more data, for what it is worth. More data points will help to clear up "grey" estimates.

 

[acoggan]

Without an accepted dope-free baseline, the data is pointless.

Precisely (in fact, you could go so far as to say "without an accepted dope-free baseline for a given individual, the data are pointless").

 

[acoggan]

Can you try again in reasonably intelligent English, as I have no idea what you are talking about.

Neither do I ("verifiable fact(ed) out of discovering" ).

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Neither do I ("verifiable fact(ed) out of discovering" ).

We can't all be rocket surgeons.

 

[BroDeal]

Lastly on Froome, was a nobody pre vuelta 2011, and now is a world beater pushing armstrong speeds. Though as noted, more fresh and who knows about wind, but if i had to choose one way or the other if he's doping, it isn't a tough call.

Wow. Someone who does not have his nose glued to a tree so he can see the forest.

 

[Turner29]

Wow. Someone who does not have his nose glued to a tree so he can see the forest.

This topic is not about whether a specific individual dopes.

 

[Krebs cycle]

The problem with this is that Froome is not an outlier. If he had the engine capable of doing clean what he is now doing, putting up numbers equal to the best doped performances, then it would have been apparent at a young age, just like LeMond. Instead his mother was asking whether he had any talent at riding a bike because he would get dropped by low grade riders. Even with minimal training he would be a beast compared to the amateurs he began racing with. Again like LeMond, who did Etape du Tour because his son was doing it; he was really fat and something like fifty years old but still finished in the top 10% in a field of amateurs who trained their asses off for what is always a long, brutal event.

This handwaving about what might be humanly possible is ridiculous when Froome's history is ignored.

blah blah blah same old story again and again. Do you even ride a bike? Have you ever trained in your entire life? Do you realise that someone with the potential to become a GT winner would not show that potential at a young age if they were not trained appropriately at that young age, or indeed if they were clean and competing against doped up riders?

This argument you guys like to pedal over and over means nothing. Froome could be doping, but even if that were true, it wouldn't make your entire line of reasoning any less invalid. In fact, to use your own argument, since future GT winners have been spotted at a relatively young TRAINING AGE (ie: years of full-time training) in the past, this suggests that it may not require as many years of full time training for a highly talented athlete to develop into top 10 GT material.

 

[Turner29]

It is and it isn't. It gives data points for time, distance, speed and altitude. Then makes an estimate of power. This estimate is based on the same calculations that everyone on here uses, so not surprisingly comes up with the same answer. it doesn't consider drafting or wind. From this Ten dam held 6.02w/kg, and then Froome, just by going straight off VAM and gradient was 6.35w/kg

...

However it must be noted some people dope to get to 4.5 other don't to get to 6. What is actually possible? I don't know and I suspect noone really does though some will have a better idea than others.

Earlier, I alluded to a study prior to EPO's emergence that included elite amateur American cycling champions, while several went on to become professionals, none was of any note. The most powerful had an FTP of 5.0 w/kg and the average was 4.75 w/kg.

No professional dopes "to get to 4.5 w/kg" -- the undoped "entry bar" for a professional is at least 5.5 w/kg and I am not talking about a GC contender here.

Jonathan Vaughters is pretty open now about his past and states that during training, undoped, he could hit 6.5 w/kg for 15-20 minutes. This implies an undoped FTP of over 6.0 w/kg, consistent with his undoped FTP estimate of 6.2 w/kg.

People know what is possible.

 

[Ferminal]

So a doper is now the benchmark for what is possible "undoped" ?

 

[Hugh Januss]

Why do the clinic crazies seem to have a much better track record of detecting doping frauds than the science guys have?