Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Maybe having a small heart and having smaller lungs but having to cut roughly through the same volume of air gives lower performance in ITT while higher on the MTT?

And heavy muscular people just push less watts/kg but more watts overall. Height and build have way less effect on air drag than on weight.

Are you suggestion all small statue riders are poor at ITT area positioning? Haha...

?

I mentioned 2 riders that are very good in ITT but had potential to be better with some aero gains. One of them was Rolland, who isn't exactly short.

In general a rider's coefficient of drag area doesn't scale linearly with mass but fractionally so (meaning flat roads favour larger more powerful riders) but that doesn't mean the smaller rider can't still get very slippery through the air or at least make improvements.

 

[Race Radio]

It appears Nibali was about 30 seconds slower then Froome in 2012, but much harder profile and weather today. Also appears there was a better leadout into the climb in 2012. Appears like both days had a tailwind

 

[karlboss]

It appears Nibali was about 30 seconds slower then Froome in 2012, but much harder profile and weather today. Also appears there was a better leadout into the climb in 2012. Appears like both days had a tailwind

Everything considered seems comparable.

 

[Race Radio]

 

[djpbaltimore]

Thanks, that is an interesting side by side comparison. On average it looks like 2014 was about 20 seconds slower than 2012 probably due in part to the tougher stage profile and wet weather conditions. I wonder what the time would've been with a motivated TS train leading them up instead of a flagging Astana pair.

 

[lllludo]

also interesting from @ammattipyoraily

#TDF, La Planche des Belles Filles
2012 | 6:57 + 9:22 = 16:19 Froome
2014 | 7:30 + 9:15 = 16:45 Nibali
part I part II

 

[Race Radio]

#TDF, La Planche des Belles Filles
2012 | 6:57 + 9:22 = 16:19 Froome
2014 | 7:30 + 9:15 = 16:45 Nibali
part I part II

This is an interesting stat.

Team sky in 2012 was crazy strong with 4 riders on the front at the foot of the climb. Big group made it to the foot of the climb and most were off the back within minutes. Nibali had one guy left in a small group.

 

[Merckx index]

By VAM, Froome 6.46 watts/kg, Vinnie Nibs 6.29.

 

[JimmyFingers]

Nibali stormed the second half then

 

[Escarabajo]

By VAM, Froome 6.46 watts/kg, Vinnie Nibs 6.29.

This is what I don't like about the VAM numbers. Rain and temperature can skew the numbers. Even being on a paceline longer.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

#TDF, La Planche des Belles Filles
2012 | 6:57 + 9:22 = 16:19 Froome
2014 | 7:30 + 9:15 = 16:45 Nibali
part I part II

Nibali would probably have been faster in the first part if Scarponi had stayed on his bike.

 

[buckle]

Thanks, that is an interesting side by side comparison. On average it looks like 2014 was about 20 seconds slower than 2012 probably due in part to the tougher stage profile and wet weather conditions. I wonder what the time would've been with a motivated TS train leading them up instead of a flagging Astana pair.

Any thoughts on the Schleck / Porte differentials?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Pinot stands out the most. Maybe the crazy pace tired him out in 2012, though.

Nibali stormed the second half then

Froome didn't exactly go all out in 2012...

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Pinot stands out the most. Maybe the crazy pace tired him out in 2012, though.

snipped...

First GT, just turned 22.
And then Sky's continued 400W ride.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Any thoughts on the Schleck / Porte differentials?

Porte +23. He finished near Rogers in 2012. I wonder how much he soft pedaled in after he did his pull on the front? The fact that he has climbed so poorly all year until now is more suspicious IMO than his climbing form from 2012.

Schleck -25. This type of climb was never his strong suit. But considering how little elite level climbing he has done since his ban, I am surprised his 2014 time is as close as it is to the one he posted in 2012.

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

Pinot stands out the most. Maybe the crazy pace tired him out in 2012, though.




Froome didn't exactly go all out in 2012...

Perhaps Pinot was holding back a bit for the following stage - which he won.

 

[buckle]

I am surprised his (Schelck's) 2014 time is as close as it is to the one he posted in 2012.

One wonders if everyone is just that bit dirtier than in 2012 ...

 

[Merckx index]

This is what I don't like about the VAM numbers. Rain and temperature can skew the numbers. Even being on a paceline longer.

Then take your complaints to the chicken-sh!t teams that refuse to publish power data.

Veloclinic has now slightly reduced his estimates, so that after all the complicated equations to determine rolling and wind resistance, he comes up with a value about the same as that estimated by VAM:

As it turns out, each meter of elevation difference is worth about .00037 W/kg. Belles Filles is has a relatively low mid-climb altitude so the estimate is bumped down from 6.5 to 6.3 naW/kg for Nibali.

Similar to the pVAM analysis the curve suggests that Nibali’s performance is above the average performances expected for this duration. However it is not as much of an outlier as Froome/Wiggins/Evans on the same climb in 2012. The estimate for that year (the blue dot above today’s points) comes in around 6.6 naW/kg when normalized for a standard rider and altitude.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

I think not quoting the error range in W/kg estimates is disingenuous. it implies a false level of precision.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I think not quoting the error range in W/kg estimates is disingenuous. it implies a false level of precision.

If it was being used for anything scientific (or legal) the suggestion might be useful.

 

[Netserk]

I think not quoting the error range in W/kg estimates is disingenuous. it implies a false level of precision.

How often do you see people quoting the error range from power meters? Is that also disingenuous?

 

[Ferminal]

fdsafdsafgdsagdsa

 

[Ferminal]

This is an interesting stat.

Team sky in 2012 was crazy strong with 4 riders on the front at the foot of the climb. Big group made it to the foot of the climb and most were off the back within minutes. Nibali had one guy left in a small group.

Yeh they are probably pretty similar all up. If anything I'd say Nibali was more impressive this year than he was in 2012.

 

[the sceptic]

Yeh they are probably pretty similar all up. If anything I'd say Nibali was more impressive this year than he was in 2012.

I would guess both Nibali and Dawg have made marginal gains since 2012.

 

[Merckx index]

I think not quoting the error range in W/kg estimates is disingenuous. it implies a false level of precision.

From the second link I posted previously:

As you can see in the figure above, the mathematically estimated power correlated well with the directly measured power meter data.

Statistically the estimate are “likely” to be within +/- 1.6% (75% confidence interval) of power meter measurements and “very likely” to be within +/- 2.7% (95% confidence interval). For perspective, the “gold standard” SRM power-meters are only reported to be accurate to within +/- 1-2% themselves.