Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Cookster15]

Honestly I think the +6 adjustment is just really dumb because the stage until that point had been super easy. When everyone gets a PB on a day, the correction factor is just wrong lol

Can someone explain what is the correction factor for?

 

[Pozzovivo]

Can someone explain what is the correction factor for?

Qu'est-ce que l'indice de performance ? - Watts2Win

watts2win.eu

 

[Pozzovivo]

Honestly I think the +6 adjustment is just really dumb because the stage until that point had been super easy. When everyone gets a PB on a day, the correction factor is just wrong lol

By far his best ever performance still.

https://lanternerouge.com/2025/05/31/simon-yates-smashes-finestre-record-giro-ditalia-2025-stage-20/

 

[Red Rick]

Can someone explain what is the correction factor for?

It's an attempt to standardize for overall race difficulty, and I think they primarily like to use the kJ/kg metric of the overall stage. I don't know why Finestre gets such a big addition now because they did under 2000m of climbing going into the base, though perhaps the high altitude and gradient also has to do with it. Oh and Finestre, so it must very likely be the gravel. Funnily Sestriere only gets a +7 correction on it.

I can't find where they explain how they standardize it now, but they were pretty open that they do not take into account drafting and wind, which is why they tend to get high numbers on shallower climbs for larger groups, which leads to the entire top 10 doing their seasonal best on the low altitude 6.5% average Montserrat climb in Catalunya for example.

Essentially by correcting for overall fatigue and these other factors they try to rate different climbs in different stages at different fatigue levels. So today would be a 90 rated performance if it was all asphalt I think.

It's a higher rating than any so far this year, and last year Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel (once) beat that rating

Funnily enough the index is supposed to be from 0-100 but Pogacar broke it last year as Plateau de Beille hit 111 on the index

 

[peterfin]

It's an attempt to standardize for overall race difficulty, and I think they primarily like to use the kJ/kg metric of the overall stage. I don't know why Finestre gets such a big addition now because they did under 2000m of climbing going into the base, though perhaps the high altitude and gradient also has to do with it. Oh and Finestre, so it must very likely be the gravel. Funnily Sestriere only gets a +7 correction on it.

I can't find where they explain how they standardize it now, but they were pretty open that they do not take into account drafting and wind, which is why they tend to get high numbers on shallower climbs for larger groups, which leads to the entire top 10 doing their seasonal best on the low altitude 6.5% average Montserrat climb in Catalunya for example.

Essentially by correcting for overall fatigue and these other factors they try to rate different climbs in different stages at different fatigue levels. So today would be a 90 rated performance if it was all asphalt I think.

It's a higher rating than any so far this year, and last year Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel (once) beat that rating

Funnily enough the index is supposed to be from 0-100 but Pogacar broke it last year as Plateau de Beille hit 111 on the index

Pogacar just had his third alien performance today according to Watts2win: 102. It was corrected down by 3 points (due to altitude and profile I guess) but they don't account for the fact that he did it all alone without drafting.

 

[Froome]

Pogacar just had his third alien performance today according to Watts2win: 102. It was corrected down by 3 points (due to altitude and profile I guess) but they don't account for the fact that he did it all alone without drafting.

Lanterne rouge are more credible than watts2win, and lanternrouge is very sensationalist because they do weight etalon of 60 kg to increase the w/kg in calculations.


Check Chronowatts from Engineer Frederic Portoleau or Ammattipyoraily.

Pogacar did around 7 w/kg in 20 minutes.

Vingegaard did 6.6/6.7 w/kg similar to what he did on Croix de Fer Dauphiné 2023, but the altitude was high.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar just had his third alien performance today according to Watts2win: 102. It was corrected down by 3 points (due to altitude and profile I guess) but they don't account for the fact that he did it all alone without drafting.

If the entire top 5 does seasonal bests, take it with a line of salt.

This calculation seems especially suss today

 

[Netserk]

If the entire top 5 does seasonal bests, take it with a line of salt.

This calculation seems especially suss today

I dunno, I'd expect them to do their seasonal best here. July will be megaretarded, so June is mediumretarded.

 

[Ulle97]

Is it fair to say that Pogacar's climbing performance on Plateau de Beille last year was the greatest climbing performance of all time?

Oris there another climbing display that is better?

 

[Pozzovivo]

Is it fair to say that Pogacar's climbing performance on Plateau de Beille last year was the greatest climbing performance of all time?

Oris there another climbing display that is better?

It's very fair, especially considering the difficulty of the stage before the final climb.

 

[Ulle97]

So after last year's blitz of climbing times, does anyone feel that the Ventoux record will be scorched this year??

Does Mayo hold the record??

 

[Pozzovivo]

So after last year's blitz of climbing times, does anyone feel that the Ventoux record will be scorched this year??

Does Mayo hold the record??

Depends on wind conditions on the day. For sure Pogacar and Vingegaard have the level to break it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So after last year's blitz of climbing times, does anyone feel that the Ventoux record will be scorched this year??

Does Mayo hold the record??

Mayo's record is pretty awesome and was achieved during an ITT (he paced himself perfectly). Obviously the mutants are able beat it (if the tempo is strong from the bottom) but it's far from guaranteed.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Mayo's record is pretty awesome and was achieved during an ITT (he paced himself perfectly). Obviously the mutants are able beat it (if the tempo is strong from the bottom) but it's far from guaranteed.

That said, on such an unipuerto stage with a train going full gas from the start of the climb you should be able to go faster than in a MTT. To break the record Pogacar or Vingegaard would have to be able to drop the other one early before the Chalet, so that tactics don't have an impact + you need favourable wind conditiosn on a climb like Ventoux. But if one drops the other one early or the other one insists like Vingegaard on PdB, then the record is beatable. The bigger think is the Hautacam record, the implications of beating that one would ring a few alarm bells among media, mainly more mainstream oriented and not the strictly cycling related that benefits from the sport and doesn't want to talk about such things.

That said, on such a long climb the advancements in regard to rolling resistance (better tires in general, tubeless having less rolling resistance and wider tires reducing it even further) would be a big deal, I recon Iban Mayo would have gone a good minute faster with those kind of tires on his old bike (if the weight was equal).

 

[snipeheem]

That said, on such an unipuerto stage with a train going full gas from the start of the climb you should be able to go faster than in a MTT. To break the record Pogacar or Vingegaard would have to be able to drop the other one early before the Chalet, so that tactics don't have an impact + you need favourable wind conditiosn on a climb like Ventoux. But if one drops the other one early or the other one insists like Vingegaard on PdB, then the record is beatable. The bigger think is the Hautacam record, the implications of beating that one would ring a few alarm bells among media, mainly more mainstream oriented and not the strictly cycling related that benefits from the sport and doesn't want to talk about such things.

That said, on such a long climb the advancements in regard to rolling resistance (better tires in general, tubeless having less rolling resistance and wider tires reducing it even further) would be a big deal, I recon Iban Mayo would have gone a good minute faster with those kind of tires on his old bike (if the weight was equal).

Hautacam record will go down this year. I have zero doubts about it.

 

[Red Rick]

So after last year's blitz of climbing times, does anyone feel that the Ventoux record will be scorched this year??

Does Mayo hold the record??

It's a 2004 time, so basically by definition it's not that sharp.

I reckon if Finestre in the Giro was a Ventoux MTF Yates breaks the Ventoux record or at least he gets close. For Vingegaard and especially Pogacar the question isn't 'if' but 'by how many minutes'.

The only thing that can spare the Ventoux record is the fact that it's Ventoux so wind is sometimes super unfavorable or gets the finished outright altered.

The record is about 55'50, I'm expecting them to go into the 52s.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The record is about 55'50, I'm expecting them to go into the 52s.

This is like 1800-1850 m/h of VAM for 52-53 minutes on a huge climb with a shallow section (first few km). Maybe even above Plateau de Beille performance level (Pogi would need a very good pacing by doms and drafting for half of the climb at least)

 

[Red Rick]

This is like 1800-1850 m/h of VAM for 52-53 minutes on a huge climb with a shallow section (first few km). Maybe even above Plateau de Beille performance level (Pogi would need a very good pacing by doms and drafting for half of the climb at least)

Shallow section should have a big peloton and megadraft, and it's not that long. Drafting there matters much more than on the 9-10% section, where going below threshold while at low altitude is actually lowing time you're not catching back at the shallower top.

Yesterday makes 52 minutes seem proper asylum stuff, but with everyone else being slower than 2014 Nibali, it's hard to make a strong case it was the very best Pogacar could do in perfect conditions. I think the combination of heat and very hard racing cooked everyone. In the Vuelta last year we saw some really big performances but the Hazallanas was super slow, with the main GC group arguably being worse than on Hautacam doing like 6.0-6.1 for 24 minutes, doing the same time as 2022 when they still had 15km of extra climbing to go.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Shallow section should have a big peloton and megadraft, and it's not that long. Drafting there matters much more than on the 9-10% section, where going below threshold while at low altitude is actually lowing time you're not catching back at the shallower top.

Yesterday makes 52 minutes seem proper asylum stuff, but with everyone else being slower than 2014 Nibali, it's hard to make a strong case it was the very best Pogacar could do in perfect conditions. I think the combination of heat and very hard racing cooked everyone. In the Vuelta last year we saw some really big performances but the Hazallanas was super slow, with the main GC group arguably being worse than on Hautacam doing like 6.0-6.1 for 24 minutes, doing the same time as 2022 when they still had 15km of extra climbing to go.

Yup, conditions were difficult to perform crazy numbers yesterday. That's why Pog's performance is more impressive than absolute numbers suggest. As for Mt Ventoux, very strong pace is needed on that 5%-ish section but I also think Pogacar would profit if he was behind a superdom (or Vingo or his dom) killing himself for a few km of the steep section.

On PdB Pogacar was paced for 2/3 of the climb (including Vingegaard acting like a superdom and going way above the pace he could sustain - his w/kg dropped strongly in the last third of the climb). That's why PdB was such an outlier in terms of VAM. Ventoux would need a perfect storm as well.

 

[Red Rick]

Yup, conditions were difficult to perform crazy numbers yesterday. That's why Pog's performance is more impressive than absolute numbers suggest. As for Mt Ventoux, very strong pace is needed on that 5%-ish section but I also think Pogacar would profit if he was behind a superdom (or Vingo or his dom) killing himself for a few km of the steep section.

On PdB Pogacar was paced for 2/3 of the climb (including Vingegaard acting like a superdom and going way above the pace he could sustain - his w/kg dropped strongly in the last third of the climb). That's why PdB was such an outlier in terms of VAM. Ventoux would need a perfect storm as well.

Ventoux winds and Pogacar luck - what could possibly go wrong.

Seriously though, I expect Pogacar will now only go full gas on the MTT and Ventoux, and if he wants more stages he'll probably do it in a more conservative way. But I still fully expect him to send Ventoux from the bottom.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Ventoux winds and Pogacar luck - what could possibly go wrong.

Seriously though, I expect Pogacar will now only go full gas on the MTT and Ventoux, and if he wants more stages he'll probably do it in a more conservative way. But I still fully expect him to send Ventoux from the bottom.

You underestimate how greedy he is, the guy can't help himself...

 

[Pozzovivo]

Hautacam record will go down this year. I have zero doubts about it.

Close, missed Almeida in the UAE train.

 

[jono]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1946304377569882384

View: https://x.com/LucGrefte/status/1946304377569882384


Does anybody know anything about the Strava vulnerability mentioned here?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1946245562799382767

View: https://x.com/WattsinCycling/status/1946245562799382767?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1946245562799382767%7Ctwgr%5E0bdf8b60d6518a87791ca19ccdc9d3f59c2d76ac%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.cyclingnews.com%2Fthreads%2Ftadej-pogacar-and-mauro-giannetti.36206%2Fpage-414



This seems like an egregiously high estimate. Ferrari Formula approximates it at 7.06, that‘s a massive difference.

 

[Red Rick]

I love how if you read some stuff at the beginning of this threat you read people being suspicious about Contador doing 6.8 W/kg for 7 minutes on Alto de Malhao.

How the hell did we get here.