Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Escarabajo]

Tour de France 2011, Stage 18, HC climb Col du Galibier [last 8.6 Km, from Lautaret]

Frank Schleck

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 587 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 8.6 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 1414 = 23 min 34 sec = 23:34
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 67 kg
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 6.8 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 21.8 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 75.0 kg

Power : 383.1 Watt
Power / kg : 5.7 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

Note: Strong wind and elevation (from 2058 m to 2645 m)!

------------------------------------------------

Tour de France 2011, Stage 18, HC climb Col du Galibier [from Lautaret]

Distance : 8.6 Km , Elevation : 587 m , Grade : 6.8 %

Fastest times

Frank Schleck 23:34
Cadel Evans 23:42
Ivan Basso 23:45
Thomas Voeckler 23:48
Pierre Rolland 23:54
Rein Taaramae 24:49
Thomas Danielson 24:52
Ryder Hesjedal 24:58
Andy Schleck 25:00 [stage winner]
Christian Vandevelde 25:05
Haimar Zubeldia 25:11
Jelle Vanendert 25:17
Alberto Contador 25:17

Can you please work Cadel's power, but correct it for head wind? There is no way his power is not higher. Same goes for Andy. Both probably showed higher kw/kg than Frank did.

Thanks.

 

[function]

Tour de France 2011, Stage 18, HC climb Col du Galibier [last 8.6 Km, from Lautaret]

Frank Schleck

....
Power : 383.1 Watt
Power / kg : 5.7 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

Note: Strong wind and elevation (from 2058 m to 2645 m)!
-----------------------------
The wind was very strong on the Lautaret, blowing in the usual direction (against racers). However, when you turn right at the top of Lautaret to climb Galibier you are usually protected from the wind and usually feel it really only on a stretch located about 2-3 km from the top.

At an average altitude of 2350 meters the effect of altitude is roughly 10-11% when compared to sea-level.

How comfortable are you with that estimate considering Frank was drafting at the back of the line a lot and the grade of the mountain and the wind?

 

[function]

Tour de France 2011, Stage 18, HC climb Col du Galibier [last 8.6 Km, from Lautaret]

Frank Schleck

....
Power : 383.1 Watt
Power / kg : 5.7 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

Note: Strong wind and elevation (from 2058 m to 2645 m)!
-----------------------------
The wind was very strong on the Lautaret, blowing in the usual direction (against racers). However, when you turn right at the top of Lautaret to climb Galibier you are usually protected from the wind and usually feel it really only on a stretch located about 2-3 km from the top.

At an average altitude of 2350 meters the effect of altitude is roughly 10-11% when compared to sea-level.

How comfortable are you with that estimate considering Frank was drafting at the back of the line a lot, the grade of the mountain, the wind and the altitude?

 

[Escarabajo]

How comfortable are you with that estimate considering Frank was drafting at the back of the line a lot, the grade of the mountain, the wind and the altitude?

Frank estimate is actually easier to do than Andy's and Cadel's values.

I'll give it a go.

 

[function]

Frank estimate is actually easier to do than Andy's and Cadel's values.

I'll give it a go.

Curious, why would you say it was easier than Cadel's or Andy's? The drafting would make his wind resistance even less constant than Cadel or Andy's.

 

[Escarabajo]

Using Halamala input numbers I have:

Frank: 383 Watts, 5.72 w/kg
Cadel:~392 Watts, 6.12 w/kg (Assuming slight head wing hitting him all the time)


I assume Cadels numbers must be higher than this since I was conservative in the wind factor.

Somebody can help us do the calculations also.

 

[Escarabajo]

Curious, why would you say it was easier than Cadel's or Andy's? The drafting would make his wind resistance even less constant than Cadel or Andy's.

I meant the calculation, not the ride.

The ride would be a lot harder.

 

[Escarabajo]

Using Halamala input numbers I have:

Frank: 383 Watts, 5.72 w/kg
Cadel:~392 Watts, 6.12 w/kg (Assuming slight head wing hitting him all the time)


I assume Cadels numbers must be higher than this since I was conservative in the wind factor.

Somebody can help us do the calculations also.

I used 5 kph head wind for this calculation. Assuming that t some points there would be breaks in the wind or just crosswinds. Hard to do the calculation as I said.

If I change that to 10 kph (not likely) and 80% pulling 20% drafting it would give me values of 408 watts and 6.4 watts/kg. But I think this is too agressive.

Again, it is very hard to say.

 

[function]

I meant the calculation, not the ride.

The ride would be a lot harder.

I meant the calculation Wind resistance is a big unknown there and not constant for being at the back of the line.

 

[roundabout]

I used 5 kph head wind for this calculation. Assuming that t some points there would be breaks in the wind or just crosswinds. Hard to do the calculation as I said.

If I change that to 10 kph (not likely) and 80% pulling 20% drafting it would give me values of 408 watts and 6.4 watts/kg. But I think this is too agressive.

Again, it is very hard to say.

Doesn't Sörensen or someone else have their SRM data published. He did lose over 12 minutes to Evans and co though.

 

[Escarabajo]

I meant the calculation Wind resistance is a big unknown there and not constant for being at the back of the line.

Again, that's why is so hard to estimate for the riders that are pulling into the wind as opposed to the ones that are drafting.

 

[BigBoat]

Correct, all you need is vertical height and time. Unless you want to bring in wind resistance, rolling resistance, wind speed, etc., but those factors have not been in the recent posts here. So all that's needed is VAM.




The top rider up PdB was under 6.0 watts/kg. I'm pretty sure no rider has been over 6.0 on any MTF so far in this year's Tour,

Bro, your estimating power based on speed (ascent speed up the mountain). Meters per hour.

Sorensen's power meter read his exact power.

His training peaks training log has his FTP listed at 400 watts on the horns. He weights 63 kg according to the listed weight. Thats 6.3 watts per kilo if you go by what is listed.

His watts per kilo in the TTT was around 5.7. Sorensen is workhorse who sets others up, due to the fact that his power is substantially lower than that of the overall contenders.

If Sorensen can maintain that much power Schleck almost certainly has an FTP per kilo 10% or 12% higher! Perhaps as high as 6.5 watts per kilo!

So it is the same power levels pretty much as the "old" 1990s era.

Voeckler climbs 2 minutes faster than he did during 2004 when Lance won his 6th Tour totally clean with 41% crit.....And Voeckler is a clean rider too he he he.

By the way headwinds slow you down a ton going uphill. Anybody who rides lots of climbs (raising my hand) knows how much diff it makes in speed (VAM)

 

[Escarabajo]

Andy Schleck:

Slight head wind: 382 watts, 5.62 w/kg (?)
Stronger head wind: 409 watts, 6.02 w/kg

I'd believe the second calculation better.

 

[BigBoat]

Andy Schleck:

Slight head wind: 382 watts, 5.62 w/kg (?)
Stronger head wind: 409 watts, 6.02 w/kg

I'd believe the second calculation better.

I'd bet the house his FTP is atleast 6.3. I'd bet a dollar he has as high a watts per kilo as Lance did back in the day up the Madone.

 

[roundabout]

Watching Evans go through the banner at 4 to go it almost looks like tailwind for the next stretch of road.

 

[Merckx index]

Bro, your estimating power based on speed (ascent speed up the mountain). Meters per hour.

Sorensen's power meter read his exact power.

His training peaks training log has his FTP listed at 400 watts on the horns. He weights 63 kg according to the listed weight. Thats 6.3 watts per kilo if you go by what is listed.

His watts per kilo in the TTT was around 5.7. Sorensen is workhorse who sets others up, due to the fact that his power is substantially lower than that of the overall contenders.

If his FTP is 6.3, he must have really been dogging it in the TTT, where he only had to go all out for a few minute bursts. If he really can put out 6.3 for a sustained period of time, I am inclined to believe he is juicing.

I get close to what Hala posted for today, obviously it depends a little on values for various factors:

FS - 389, 5.81 (5.57 watts/kg using just VAM, so not a big difference)
CE - 397, 6.20 (assuming 5 kph headwind the whole way; the same power output w/o a headwind would have gotten him to the finish 67" sooner).

Also, I don't know these riders' weights, I was assuming 67 kg for FS and 64 kg for CE, as that seems to be what Hala and others were using.

Since we don't know the exact wind situation (maybe head sometimes, none, side or tailwind at other times), I think all we can really conclude is that they were around 6.0 or a little below. This is consistent with outputs on the earlier MTFs.

 

[function]

Again, that's why is so hard to estimate for the riders that are pulling into the wind as opposed to the ones that are drafting.

My point was that it is hard to extrapolate the drafting effect therefore calculating power requirement for drafting riders going up a ~7% grade with cross/head winds would be a lot harder than the lead rider.

 

[Anonymous]

JV just tweeted me.

They aren't getting body weight correct or air pressure. 5.8 w/kg...

 

[Le breton]

I used 5 kph head wind for this calculation. Assuming that t some points there would be breaks in the wind or just crosswinds. Hard to do the calculation as I said.

If I change that to 10 kph (not likely) and 80% pulling 20% drafting it would give me values of 408 watts and 6.4 watts/kg. But I think this is too agressive.

Again, it is very hard to say.

As I wrote above, on the south side of Galibier (after the Lautaret turn-off) you are not usually exposed to the wind, except, on occasions, on a section which is less than 1km long.

However the average altitude is 2350meters, reducing power output by about 11%.

Now, concerning the Izoard climb, I have a time of 31:00 for A. Schleck between the church in Arvieux and the top.

Pascal Richard did 33:00 in his stage win in 96 (Giro)
The leading group in the Giro 2000 did it in 32:56.

Although I imagine AS had some help from the wind in the La Chalp-Brunissard section and was riding in the middle of a group, it is still an outstanding performance.

I don't have the exact altitude of the church in Arvieux, just a little bit over 1560 meters I guess.

To do the calculation you have to add the 20 meters downhill between 2182m and roughly 2160m and subtract the 40-50 seconds lost in that downhill.

So, ROUGHLY speaking A. S. climbed 2361+20-1560 ~820 meters in 30 :15 (distance ~ 10 km

with Crr = 0.004 air dens = 0.98 and not taking into account drafting/fav. wind, I get 5.8 watts/kg at an average altitude of 2000m, which makes it equivalent to about 6.2 watts/kg at sea-level.

I don't have enough detailed data to make an accurate estimate.

 

[davestoller]

Pretty obvious the winds were very substantial today.

As for the idea that the winds dont affect THAT side of the Galibier, having descended it, and nearly having gotten blown off the road by wind, I can attest differently. Yes the winds on the other side are different.

THere was a HUGE crosswind at the bottom after the turn off Lauteret up the Galibier. Paul and Phil commented that at sections it WOULD be a strong tailwind lifting them.

Different towards the top 3 km more exposed and all the riders were visibly struggling with the gradient, altitude, and wind.

 

[BigBoat]

If his FTP is 6.3, he must have really been dogging it in the TTT, where he only had to go all out for a few minute bursts. If he really can put out 6.3 for a sustained period of time, I am inclined to believe he is juicing.

I get close to what Hala posted for today, obviously it depends a little on values for various factors:

FS - 389, 5.81 (5.57 watts/kg using just VAM, so not a big difference)
CE - 397, 6.20 (assuming 5 kph headwind the whole way; the same power output w/o a headwind would have gotten him to the finish 67" sooner).

Also, I don't know these riders' weights, I was assuming 67 kg for FS and 64 kg for CE, as that seems to be what Hala and others were using.

Since we don't know the exact wind situation (maybe head sometimes, none, side or tailwind at other times), I think all we can really conclude is that they were around 6.0 or a little below. This is consistent with outputs on the earlier MTFs.

The speed/power deal is all messed up due to the wind, draft, tactics, other variables.

The best you can get is real SRM power data from a TT stage. So the domestiques of this years Grand Tours are riding around at 5.7- 6.3 watts per kilo according to Sorensen's SRM power data.

Now Lemond said he could do "420 or 430 watts for 20 minutes" this would but his FTP around 400 watts at 69 kg. 5.9 watts per kilo totally rested.

5.9 watts per kilo fatigued would never ever happen......Never in the 3rd week of a grand Tour. No his final TT could not have been done at even 420.....More like 390.

Yet Sorensen, a man who's never won an elite world championships, never finished so much as top 30 in a grand Tour.....never won a one day classic....list goes on of things he has not done......is buzzing around at 6 watts per kilo.

I wonder what his power was when he was "drilling it" for Cont-DOPE today.....6.3 watts per kilo.

 

[Semper Fidelis]

Glad someone pointed this out. Yes its "relatively low", and I wonder whether we'll see any drastic changes come the Pyrenees. What is looking to be certain is that this is much cleaner peloton than the Armstrong era, thats why its "relatively low". Ross Tucker of Science of Sport had it that a max of 6.2 is strongly indicative of a suspicious performance, not impossible.

Someone emailed me today saying that he viewed SRM files from the hilly stages and Contador and Schleck were both doing roundabout 5.6 W/kg (Madeline). The funny thing was that in that stage, Armstrong was dropped. Go back to what Ferrari used to say - that to win, 6.7 W/kg was the magic number and that Lance could produce this easily. Where was it I read, that The Kid Carmichael, in an interview, even pushed that number unscrupulously to 7 W/kg. Question is how can his p/wt drop so drastically now? This will be a good topic for discussion.

Someone ? Had the SRM files directly?

All this calc stuff is pure crap ology. You guys hang your hats on TELEVISION CONVERAGE WTF??????? LMAO AT YOU!

 

[Orvieto]

SRM posts live data feeds of several riders during this tour.

http://data.srmlive.de/TDF/

They also post some of the graph output and analysis in their blog:

That's where you will find the stage 16 power output numbers for Chris Anker Sorensen and for one of that day's escapees Jeremy Roy:

http://www.srm.de/index.php/us/srm-blog/tour-de-france/658-tdf-2011-16-etappe-srm-daten-roy-soerensen-irizar

 

[karlboss]

Someone ? Had the SRM files directly?

All this calc stuff is pure crap ology. You guys hang your hats on TELEVISION CONVERAGE WTF??????? LMAO AT YOU!

All the files for Sorenson and Flecha can be found at training peaks. Though Sorenson's FTP is listed at 400w and weight 64kg, his most impressive effort in the tour thus far was 402watts for 12 min. Setting up the cote de pra martino. A mammoth 6.3w/kg held for only 12 minutes. If his FTP is 400watts for an hour, he is way off form.

 

[Escarabajo]

Someone ? Had the SRM files directly?

All this calc stuff is pure crap ology. You guys hang your hats on TELEVISION CONVERAGE WTF??????? LMAO AT YOU!

Yeah right. We get air density, elevations, temperatures, drag coefficients, road wheel coefficients, body weights from just watching the television.

I assume that you know it is calculated in order to say what you are saying.