Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[jens_attacks]

don't shoot the messenger

http://forum.cicloweb.it/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=464

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

the time of cobo on spanish wiki is not accurate,someone should edit it maybe.
the riders catched by the camera beginning l'angliru are in fact the wiggins group which was let behind on the descent by the liquigas train.cobo was up front with them at 12-13 sec
these are the times clocked by myself,anybody is welcomed to correct me:

2011:12,6 km@10%---43:57---average speed 17.20 km/h(Juan Jose Cobo)
2008:12,6 km@10%---43:12---average speed 17.50 km/h(Alberto Contador)
2002:12,6 km@10%---43:41---average speed 17.30 km/h(Roberto Heras)
2000:12,6 km@10%---41:55---average speed 18.03 km/h(Roberto Heras)
1999:12,6 km@10%---44:50---average speed 16.86 km/h(Jose Maria Jimenez-Pavel Tonkov)

Thanks for the correction.

Cobo was still pretty damn fast, though, if one assumes that riders are less doped now than they were in 2008 and before. Heras was 2 minutes faster, though. Unreal.

 

[halamala]

Richie Porte climbed 6.8 w/kg

Richie Porte

Volta ao Algarve 2012, Stage 3, Final Climb, Alto do Malhão

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 227 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 2.4 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 429 = 7 min 9 sec = 7:09
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 63 kg [Wikipedia]
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 9.4 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 20.1 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 71.0 kg

Power : 431.1 Watt
Power / kg : 6.8 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

 

[function]

Richie Porte

Volta ao Algarve 2012, Stage 3, Final Climb, Alto do Malhão

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 227 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 2.4 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 429 = 7 min 9 sec = 7:09
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 63 kg [Wikipedia]
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 9.4 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 20.1 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 71.0 kg

Power : 431.1 Watt
Power / kg : 6.8 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

For 7 minutes...

 

[V3R1T4S]

Richie Porte

Volta ao Algarve 2012, Stage 3, Final Climb, Alto do Malhão

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 227 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 2.4 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 429 = 7 min 9 sec = 7:09
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 63 kg [Wikipedia]
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 9.4 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 20.1 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 71.0 kg

Power : 431.1 Watt
Power / kg : 6.8 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

For 7 minutes...

This estimation neglects the fact that for the first 2 mins Wiggins is going flat-out blowing up the field with Porte right on his wheel. Even at ~23 km/hr there is a drafting effect.

 

[function]

This estimation neglects the fact that for the first 2 mins Wiggins is going flat-out blowing up the field with Porte right on his wheel. Even at ~23 km/hr there is a drafting effect.

Absolutely!

 

[jens_attacks]

the time is correct but the length of malhao?on the tv screen it said 3 km to go when they started the climb.i think malhao is 2,7 km@9,3%.no way richie went just at 20 km/h,it was a very fast ascent,the start of bradley and also richie flew away.

about the power outputs,of course all these approximations are pretty much nothing

 

[zigmeister]

Thanks for the correction.

Cobo was still pretty damn fast, though, if one assumes that riders are less doped now than they were in 2008 and before. Heras was 2 minutes faster, though. Unreal.

I don't find that unimaginable. Not when a time trial expert like DaveZ, or Panzerwagen can outdo people by 1 minute or better in a 20 minute time trial. That is a 5% better performance they can do often compared to other guys. Climbers are no different, some guys are specialist at what they do. Hence their times are often reflective of that, even compared to so-called good climbers.

 

[halamala]

SRM data, Rein Taaramäe, Volta ao Algarve 2011, Final Climb, Alto do Malhão (2011)

Lõputõusu andmed:

7min7s (time)
490w keskmist! Jube number! (average power)
171pulss (pulse)
Max pulss 178l (max pulse)
Kiirus 20.3km/h (speed)
Keskmised vändapöörded: 88 tiiru min (cadence)
Tõusu kokku 227m (elevation)
15,9 kraadi sooja (temperature ['C])
210kcal
Distants 2.4km (distance)

7 watti kg kohta on kah ikka päris jube number ja keskmiseid watte vaadates ma ei imesta et Contador üksi minema ei suutnud sõita.

 

[zigmeister]

Hi Le breton,

I'm going to do a more accurate calculation later today. It'll be interesting to compare our calculations.

How do you calculate and estimate the downhill sections, grade changes? The last 300m of that ascent is downhill. Also several flat sections, plus the changes in grade.

Does the overall calculation just assume and estimate an average total output to climb that altitude, in a specific amount of time for the rider weight/bike weight?

 

[halamala]

Cote de la Croix Neuve (Montee Laurent Jalabert) [Distance 3.1 Km, Grade: 10.1 %, Elevation: 312 m]

Tour de France 1995

Marco Pantani, 8:40
Miguel Indurain, 8:40
Bjarne Riis, 8:40

Tour de France 2005

Lance Armstrong, 9:33
Ivan Basso, 9:33
Jan Ullrich, 9:33
Cadel Evans, 9:33

Tour de France 2010

Joaquim Rodriguez, 9:33
Alberto Contador, 9:33
Andy Schleck, 9:45
Jurgen Van Den Broeck, 9:45
Samuel Sanchez, 9:45
Denis Menchov, 9:45

Paris-Nice 2007

Alberto Contador, 9:40
Davide Rebellin, 9:42
David Lopez, 9:52
Cadel Evans, 9:53
Tadej Valjavec, 9:57

Paris-Nice 2010

Alberto Contador, 9:44
Alejandro Valverde, 9:54
Samuel Sanchez, 9:54

Paris-Nice 2012

Lieuwe Westra, 9:52
Alejandro Valverde, 9:58
Bradley Wiggins, 9:58
Levi Leipheimer, 9:58
Simon Spilak, 9:58

---

Dr. Ferrari's formula

Paris-Nice 2012, Stage 5, Cote de la Croix Neuve (Montee Laurent Jalabert) [Distance 3.1 Km, Grade: 10.1 %, Elevation: 312 m]

Lieuwe Westra

9:52, 18.85 Kph, VAM 1896 m/h, 6.12 w/kg

---

Lieuwe Westra

Paris-Nice 2012, Stage 5, Cote de la Croix Neuve

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 312 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 3.1 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 592 = 9 min 52 sec = 9:52
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 71 kg [Lieuwewestra.com]
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 10.1 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 18.8 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 79.0 kg

Power : 464.1 Watt
Power / kg : 6.5 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

 

[Le breton]

Ahead of today's climb of the col d'Eze by best climbers, I thought I would calculate using analyticcycling.com the time needed by a
70 kg racer
with 8 kg equipment
1.19 air density
CdA = 0.35 m^2 on km1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8,
CdA = 0.3 m^2 on km 4, 5, 9, 9 to 9.6

For a racer producing 6.5 watts/kg, ie 70 x 6.5 = 455 watts
Using the profile provided by A.S.O.

http://www.letour.fr/2012/PNC/LIVE/fr/800/etape_par_etape.html

I guess/calculate for the successive km the following times in seconds
155 166 129 106 101 146 132 128 and for the final 1.6 km which I lumped together as 0.75% climb, 128 seconds.

i.e I get a total of 1191 seconds, i.e 19:51.

Portoleau and Vayer calculated in 2002 that Moncoutié the previous year, at 69 kg produced 455 watts when climbing in 20:35.

Now, of course, given the low %ages on 3.6 km, out of 9.6 and about 28% of the duration of the effort, it is not possible to expect a result at the 2% level. But it gives an indication.

 

[Le breton]

...........
Now, of course, given the low %ages on 3.6 km, out of 9.6 and about 28% of the duration of the effort, it is not possible to expect a result at the 2% level. But it gives an indication.

I should add that as is all too often the case, A.S.O. has a problem with altitudes.

At the starting point it is given as 36 m
At the finish 501 meters

A difference of 465 meters

However, if you add up the various %ages given for the successive kilometers you end up with 486 meters! ie 4.5% more.

Which of course partially invalidates my calculation.
Furthermore, I was doing things a bit fast and could have not been sufficiently careful in my use of analyticcycling ( seetting of the various parameters)

 

[iZnoGouD]

calculations from today MTT stage?

 

[halamala]

According to RAI: Nibali a Prati di Tivo è salito a 1589 di VAM, 22,529 km/h.

Prati di Tivo

Distance: 14.55 Km
Elevation: 1026 m
Grade: 7.05 %

VAM (m/h): 1589
Time: 38:44

Using Dr. Ferrari's formula:

1589 / 270.5 = 5.87 w/kg

---

Vincenzo Nibali

Tirreno-Adriatico 2012, Stage 5, Prati di Tivo

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 1026 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 14.55 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 2324 = 38 min 44 sec = 38:44
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 64 kg [Wikipedia]
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 7.0 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 22.5 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 72.0 kg

Power : 394.2 Watt
Power / kg : 6.1 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

 

[Cannavaro]

I also tried to stop the time for the climb. They switched from the helicopter showing the main group to Egoi Martinez, when the first riders were breaking, i think for the corner at start of the climb. From this moment to the finish i stopped 39.03. So i think Nibali needed around 39.01. But i'm really unsure.

 

[Sophistic]

6,6 w/kg for wiggins

 

[BigBoat]

6,6 w/kg for wiggins

Yup.

Rigoberto Uran Uran is very likely pounding at 370 watts for his FTP (138 pounds wet). Only managed to get 10th.... So if 6 watts to kilo is only good for 10th my guess is 5.8-5.9 (which is what Lemond/Hinault raced at) would be good for 15-40 places.

http://home.trainingpeaks.com/races/team-sky-races/paris-nice-2011/stage-6---rigoberto-uran.aspx

Wiggins had 6.3 w/kg for an hour this week...maybe 6.4.

 

[Le breton]

Yup.

Rigoberto Uran Uran is very likely pounding at 370 watts for his FTP (138 pounds wet). Only managed to get 10th.... So if 6 watts to kilo is only good for 10th my guess is 5.8-5.9 (which is what Lemond/Hinault raced at) would be good for 15-40 places.

http://home.trainingpeaks.com/races/team-sky-races/paris-nice-2011/stage-6---rigoberto-uran.aspx

Wiggins had 6.3 w/kg for an hour this week...maybe 6.4.

Is there something wro^ng with Uran that he can only cycle at his FTP on a 20 minutes effort?
I know I once time trialed uphill for that duration at the same power I elicited at VO2 max in a lab test, ie well above my FTP (I also concluded I was a better cyclist on the road that in the lab ).

Then you are comparing apples and oranges : a 20 minutes TT and the power output of LeMond Hinault for example in the TdF 86 in l'Alpe d'Huez after climbing Galibier, Croix de Fer before the days of exogenous EPO.

In those days people used to get tired so that they would not go as fast at the end of a hard stage. Maybe you only started watching cycling in the early 90's

 

[Le breton]

In the book
Anthologie de la Course au Soleil

G Delestre says that in the Col d'Eze TT the finish line was always located on the same spot.

However the starting line and distance varied, with flat sections being added

Before the 80's the distance was the same as yesterday, minus possibly 100 meters, but bikes were 2kg (?) heavier.

Best times

1972 - Poulidor 20' 04''

1970 - Merckx 20' 14''

1978 - Kneteman 20' 14''

1969 - Merckx 20' 40''

With an extra 400-500 meters (~35 sec?)

1986 - Kelly 19' 45'' ie equiv. to 19 : 10

1987 - Roche 19' 47''.............. 19 : 12

Extra 600-700m. ( 45 sec?)

2000 - Kloden en 20' 06'' ie equiv to 19 :20

With an extra 2400-2500 meters ( ~3 :00)

1992 - Bernard en 22' 15'' ie equiv. to 19 : 15

1990 - Bernard en 22' 51'' ie equiv to 19 : 50

With an extra 2900 3000 meters (( ~ 3 :35)

1994 - Rominger en 22' 06'' ie. equiv to 18 : 30

1995 - Bobrik en 22' 32'' ie equiv to 18 :56

With the advent of EPO I guess it became embarrassing to use the exact same course.

Anyway it looks like with about 7.2 watts/kg Rominger again proves that he didn't need EPO to be the best

 

[Cannavaro]

I think Rominger himself said during Paris - Nice 2001 that he had to ride further. Most likely for me is, that the finish from 1990 - 1995 was 2.5 km after the normal finish on the highest point of the road. Then I think in 2000 and 2001 it was the same start as in 1986-1989. We have this profil for that year.
So i think:
1969-1978 the same course
1979-1985 +1150m little decreasing extra (-1.22 min)
1986-1989 + 450 m flat extra (-35s)
1990-1992 +2.5 km 75hm after todays finish (- around 4 min)
1993-1995 +2.5 km 75hm after todays finish and 450m flat extra bevor the start (- around 4.30min)
2000-2001 + 450 m flat extra (-35s)
With this I have recalculated the times without correcting the years 1990-1995. But you can remove around 4 minutes for that.
1969: Merckx 20.40
1970: Merckx 20.14
1971: Merckx 20.43
1972: Poulidor 20.04
1973: Zoetemelk 20.44
1974: Zoetemelk 20.38
1975: Zoetemelk 20.59
1976: Laurent 20.51

1978: Knetemann 20.14
1979: Zoetemelk 20.00
1980: Knetemann 19.06
1981: Roche 19.47
1982: Kelly 19.18
1983: Kelly 18.57
1984: Kelly 19.19
1985: Roche 19.30
1986: Kelly 19.10
1987: Roche 19.12
1988: Kelly 19.36
1989: Roche 19.16
---------------------------
1990: Bernard 22.51
1991: Rominger 23.53
1992: Bernard 22.15
1993: Zülle 22.30
1994: Rominger 21.31
1995: Bobrik 21.57
----------------------------

2000: Klöden 19.31
2001: Frigo 19.18

 

[BigBoat]

Is there something wro^ng with Uran that he can only cycle at his FTP on a 20 minutes effort?
I know I once time trialed uphill for that duration at the same power I elicited at VO2 max in a lab test.

Uran's FTP was calculated to be 375 at the time based on his 36 min average of 389 for the stage.

Most guys can produce around 10 watts more outside than inside due to no restriction of movement. As far as producing your lab test V02 max power in a 20 minute TT I think your lying to us.

Although you can average about 5% higher than true FTP for 20 mins with a huge effort. If you were extremely out of shape (completely untrained couch potato) then I can see your V02 max test power eventually becoming an FTP years and years down the road.

Lets say as an example only: your original V02 max untrained was 55 ml/min/kg * .80 = 44 ml/min/kg.
0.075 W/min/kg is typical. So you'd have around 3.3 watts per kilo for your threshold when you did the V02 max test.

Lets say you trained and raised your V02 max to 70 ml/min/kg which is doable from a 55 V02 max couch potato state. Your threshold indoors is now 56 ml/min/kg or 4.2 w/kg and lets say outside you can hit 4.3 w/kg. So I guess although its possible to turn the V02 max power into threshold, its unlikely. I suspect your lying to us.

 

[Le breton]

Uran's FTP was calculated to be 375 at the time based on his 36 min average of 389 for the stage.

Most guys can produce around 10 watts more outside than inside due to no restriction of movement. As far as producing your lab test V02 max power in a 20 minute TT I think your lying to us.

Although you can average about 5% higher than true FTP for 20 mins with a huge effort. If you were extremely out of shape (completely untrained couch potato) then I can see your V02 max test power eventually becoming an FTP years and years down the road.

Lets say as an example only: your original V02 max untrained was 55 ml/min/kg * .80 = 44 ml/min/kg.
0.075 W/min/kg is typical. So you'd have around 3.3 watts per kilo for your threshold when you did the V02 max test.

Lets say you trained and raised your V02 max to 70 ml/min/kg which is doable from a 55 V02 max couch potato state. Your threshold indoors is now 56 ml/min/kg or 4.2 w/kg and lets say outside you can hit 4.3 w/kg. So I guess although its possible to turn the V02 max power into threshold, its unlikely. I suspect your lying to us.

Yes, of course, my only purpose coming on this forum is lying.

Maybe you don't understand what I say when I write
I know I once time trialed uphill for that duration at the same power I elicited at VO2 max in a lab test,

Would you have understood if I had been more precise?

I know I once time trialed uphill for that duration at the same aerobic power I elicited at VO2 max in a lab test,

Between 15 an 18 minutes into the test I had produced 4.7 watts/kg.

At the next step up I had to stop after 20 min. - couldn't go to 21 min - at which point I was producing 5.5 watts/kg but of course part of that energy was anaerobic, so I divide my VO2max reached at 20 minutes by the VO2 produced between 15 and 18 minutes and mutiply by the watts/kg produced between 15 and 18 minutes (4.7 watts/kg)
So that I get almost exactly 5 watts/kg of aerobic power meaning that about 10% of the power produced in the last 2 minutes was anaerobic.

The TT power was calculated not measured, but since then I have often verified my calculation on that course with my powermeter and my calculated power on that 20 minutes TT (19:19 to be exact) was 5 watts/kg.

I don't particularly appreciate you calling me a liar and I really should not have answered you, but maybe you come from a background where words don't have the same meaning.

 

[Le breton]

I think Rominger himself said during Paris - Nice 2001 that he had to ride further. Most likely for me is, that the finish from 1990 - 1995 was 2.5 km after the normal finish on the highest point of the road. Then I think in 2000 and 2001 it was the same start as in 1986-1989. We have this profil for that year.

ABOUT 2001 You show a profile that contradicts what you write

The profiles produced by A.S.O (and reproduced by cyclingnews), for what they are worth, show

in 2001 a flat section before the start of the climb
in 2012 no such flat section

Then, I would tend to give more weight to someone like Delestre who took the trouble to write a book than to what you may think

In the book
Anthologie de la Course au Soleil

G Delestre says that in the Col d'Eze TT the finish line was always located on the same spot.

He is talking about the time when Paris-Nice was "owned" by the Leulliot family, before it was sold to A.S.O.

 

[Cannavaro]

ABOUT 2001 You show a profile that contradicts what you write

The profiles produced by A.S.O (and reproduced by cyclingnews), for what they are worth, show

in 2001 a flat section before the start of the climb
in 2012 no such flat section

Then, I would tend to give more weight to someone like Delestre who took the trouble to write a book than to what you may think

In the book
Anthologie de la Course au Soleil

G Delestre says that in the Col d'Eze TT the finish line was always located on the same spot.

He is talking about the time when Paris-Nice was "owned" by the Leulliot family, before it was sold to A.S.O.

Sorry I couldn' find the right words. I meant that 1986-1989 and 2000/2001 had the same start and the same finish. Of course 2012 was without the flat section and i calculated the times right, which means -35 second for 1986-1989 and 2000/2001.
I only said that in my mind from 1990-1995 the finish was further up the hill. For me it is hard to beleave that Rominger cant remember the track he rode and won after 6 years. But it is of course possible.