Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Did nibali ever defeat contador in a GT? No he didn't.

Contador has always been superior to nibali, and contador looked amazing in the tour 2014. You're in denial if you don't think contador was in amazing shape. Go look back at that stage, where he gained 3 'sec'.

No before, you are right but Nibali got into such great shape from 2012 later
And I am not denying he was in good shape, or he did not looked great but that year simply was not enough for Nibali, no matter mistake he did when he crashed, he left tour with 2:30 behind Nibali, time which on 90% he had no chance to take back, you can only wish it

Based on what do you reason contador couldn't take that time back?

Contador destroyed everyone that season and he always destroyed nibali in a GT. Of course it wasn't gonna be simple but 90%? And contador his numbers were way way better than majka who was the second best climber.

Oh well if you think it's 90% no point discussing. You win the discussion based on experience.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Did nibali ever defeat contador in a GT? No he didn't.

Contador has always been superior to nibali, and contador looked amazing in the tour 2014. You're in denial if you don't think contador was in amazing shape. Go look back at that stage, where he gained 3 'sec'.

No before, you are right but Nibali got into such great shape from 2012 later
And I am not denying he was in good shape, or he did not looked great but that year simply was not enough for Nibali, no matter mistake he did when he crashed, he left tour with 2:30 behind Nibali, time which on 90% he had no chance to take back, you can only wish it

Based on what do you reason contador couldn't take that time back?

Contador destroyed everyone that season and he always destroyed nibali in a GT. Of course it wasn't gonna be simple but 90%? And contador his numbers were way way better than majka who was the second best climber.

Oh well if you think it's 90% no point discussing. You win the discussion based on experience.

OK, my bad 90% is way overrated but way how Nibali finished that Tour with no bad days enough good TT and some really outstanding climb finish saying that there was big I mean chance he could control Alberto Contador attack enough to safe his advantage, Nibali is clever enough to only sit on Alberto wheel and let him spent much more energy but pitty we will never know it for sure
and ofc COntadors numbers are better then Majka but he was so far from Nibali even as 2nd best climber on Tour, and even more far from gaining any time on him

 

[PremierAndrew]

1) Yates
2) Matthews
3) Simon Clarke

Orica to gain 20 minutes in the TTT.

Actually scrap that, Matthews and Simon Clarke will drop out of the podium after amassing several penalties for taking a wheel from another team, with other contenders to get wiped out by a Shimano car and losing several minutes waiting for a train to pass

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Nibali was going flat out while AC looked so easy.

Indeed , it was so funny, damn Alberto was in monster shape, I hope he can get close to that form this year

ofc your eyes see what you want to see
in that day Alberto put very small gap not only on Nibali but even on other riders, 2 days later Nibali gave much more time to them, ofc on longer ascent but less steeper
fact is Nibali was best rider in that TDF no matter your personal feelings which does not count at all
I am just curious what non sense excuses you will say after this tour, If Nibali will be weak and he will loose lot of time I will tell, you were right, sorry for that I believed in him so much, can you do the same? honestly

They hadn't even reached the real mountains. How can anyone say that one would be the strongest with any certainty?

 

[SeriousSam]

I remember posting what the betting odds were prior to Contador's crash. That's certainly a much better assessment of what would have happened, had Contador not crashed than anything fans with a strong emotional stake are capable of.

As I recall, Contador was the deemed more likely to win, but it was fairly even. That was, of course, the ex ante scenario where Nibali's strength was still unknown. Ex post, we learned that he climbed at a level he had never climbed before (which therefore was not expected). Knowing what we know now, I think Nibali would have held on against either Froome or Contador with that cobbles head start.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

I remember posting what the betting odds were prior to Contador's crash. That's certainly a much better assessment of what would have happened, had Contador not crashed than anything fans with a strong emotional stake are capable of.

As I recall, Contador was the deemed more likely to win, but it was fairly even. That was, of course, the ex ante scenario where Nibali's strength was still unknown. Ex post, we learned that he climbed at a level he had never climbed before (which therefore was not expected). Knowing what we know now, I think Nibali would have held on against either Froome or Contador with that cobbles head start.

Absolutely. And that's why in this thread I find Nibali to be way underrated. He's the champ, last year he showed that he was really prepared, that he had a great game plan, and the execution was flawless. His performance was "not expected" to be as this level as you wrote. If he is as good this year as he was last year, he's the man to beat. And all the Nairo, Dawg, Bertie talk is perfect for him. He's flying under the radar, like he did at the same time last year.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

I remember posting what the betting odds were prior to Contador's crash. That's certainly a much better assessment of what would have happened, had Contador not crashed than anything fans with a strong emotional stake are capable of.

As I recall, Contador was the deemed more likely to win, but it was fairly even. That was, of course, the ex ante scenario where Nibali's strength was still unknown. Ex post, we learned that he climbed at a level he had never climbed before (which therefore was not expected). Knowing what we know now, I think Nibali would have held on against either Froome or Contador with that cobbles head start.

well-measured analysis. despite absence of contador and froome the 2014 tour from nibali is highly underrated. yes very likely he's still weaker than all the other three guys so far but this gap is little and may dissapear in july yet.

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

Since Kreuziger is cleared to ride and allowed to go full ***, he will podium TDF!

1. Niballi or someone else from Astana
2. Valverde
3. Kreuziger
4. Quintana
5. Froome

Kreuziger podium? No way.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

Did nibali ever defeat contador in a GT? No he didn't.

Contador has always been superior to nibali, and contador looked amazing in the tour 2014. You're in denial if you don't think contador was in amazing shape. Go look back at that stage, where he gained 3 'sec'.

He was so amazing that he lost 2 and a half minutes to Nibali in the cobbles stage.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Did nibali ever defeat contador in a GT? No he didn't.

Contador has always been superior to nibali, and contador looked amazing in the tour 2014. You're in denial if you don't think contador was in amazing shape. Go look back at that stage, where he gained 3 'sec'.

He was so amazing that he lost 2 and a half minutes to Nibali in the cobbles stage.

Did you actually think before posting this?

And if you did think, did you think this was a good argument to add to the discussion?

Because it seems to me like you are just setting yourself up for a very easy rebuttal by Miburo.

 

[Jagartrott]

I posted this because you cannot cherry-pick your way into 'proving' Contador's superior form in that Tour.
The cobbles stage was ridden, and Nibali was superior in that particular stage to all other GC contenders. Contador was better in the murito stage. It's both cherry-picking.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

I posted this because you cannot cherry-pick your way into 'proving' Contador's superior form in that Tour.
The cobbles stage was ridden, and Nibali was superior in that particular stage to all other GC contenders. Contador was better in the murito stage. It's both cherry-picking.

Yes i can. Cobbles and hills aren't the same thing. And history has proven contador is way better on the mountains than hills.

It was raining. Did you know that many of the current cobbles guys never raced PR in the rain? Did you know that? It's been ages since it happened.

Furthermore contador fell behind cause he didn't wanna risk much, and he never experienced this. How could he? Pretty much no one has. Riders will react differently to it.

Riding the cobbles on rain is completely different, your bike feels completely different. And Contador has proven to be the best climber that season and has always been superior to nibali. And on stage 8 contador looked amazing, that's a fact, when contador hurts you can easily see it, he was barely breathing. I dare you to find one well known poster who didn't think contador was gonna win the tour after that stage. For the sake of objectivity they can't be a fan of either.

All these facts lead to the reasonable assumption contador was gonna be the best climber that tour.

Here are your facts, what cherry are you talking about?

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Yes i can. Cobbles and hills aren't the same thing. And history has proven contador is way better on the mountains than hills.

Nibali is also better in the hills than in the mountains.
Do you know if the factor that Nibali is better in mountains than hills is the same as the one for Contador?

It was raining. Did you know that many of the current cobbles guys never raced PR in the rain? Did you know that? It's been ages since it happened.

Furthermore contador fell behind cause he didn't wanna risk much, and he never experienced this. How could he? Pretty much no one has. Riders will react differently to it.

'Nibali chose to lose a few seconds on that mur, just because he didn't want to go into the red too much'.
There, I just proved that the hill-top finish actually was unrelated to Nibali's strength.

I dare you to find one well known poster who didn't think contador was gonna win the tour after that stage. For the sake of objectivity they can't be a fan of either.

Seriously? And what does 'well known' have to do with anything?

All these facts lead to the reasonable assumption contador was gonna be the best climber that tour.

Yeah, facts. And even then, the best climber doesn't always win the GC, especially not if he has to make up 2min30 to a rider that pushed as many W/kg than 2013-Tour-Froome in the mountains that followed.

 

[Miburo]

Contador didn't wanna risk a crash on the cobbles, nothing to with going into the red.

 

[bassano]

Re:

Contador didn't wanna risk a crash on the cobbles, nothing to with going into the red.

Absolutelly non sense, he risked anyway, he only did not have legs and skill to handle his bike to follow Astana with Nibali, you are not going to loose more then 2 minutes only because you do not want to risk

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I posted this because you cannot cherry-pick your way into 'proving' Contador's superior form in that Tour.
The cobbles stage was ridden, and Nibali was superior in that particular stage to all other GC contenders. Contador was better in the murito stage. It's both cherry-picking.

Miburo posted Contador was in amazing shape, and you posted

He was so amazing that he lost 2 and a half minutes to Nibali in the cobbles stage.

that is just nonsense "in my opinion". You know just as well as everyone else that a climber can be in amazing shape and still lose loads of time on WET!! cobbles

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

I dare you to find one well known poster who didn't think contador was gonna win the tour after that stage. For the sake of objectivity they can't be a fan of either.

Seriously? And what does 'well known' have to do with anything?

yeah, that was really nice joke
well known poster , what a argument

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I dare you to find one well known poster who didn't think contador was gonna win the tour after that stage. For the sake of objectivity they can't be a fan of either.

Seriously? And what does 'well known' have to do with anything?

yeah, that was really nice joke
well known poster , what a argument

Because there are loads of braindead trolls on this forum, it might be better to just ask the objective, respected posters on the forum. That's what Miburo meant.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Contador didn't wanna risk a crash on the cobbles, nothing to with going into the red.

Absolutelly non sense, he risked anyway, he only did not have legs and skill to handle his bike to follow Astana with Nibali, you are not going to loose more then 2 minutes only because you do not want to risk

Riding on cobbles is all about taking risks. When your bike handling skills are good, those risks pose less of a problem, but they are still there. It's absolutely 10000% *** to say he did not have the legs.
He struggled on the wet cobbles, build a bridge and GET OVER IT, it does not take away that he was in absolute monster shape.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

I dare you to find one well known poster who didn't think contador was gonna win the tour after that stage. For the sake of objectivity they can't be a fan of either.

Seriously? And what does 'well known' have to do with anything?

yeah, that was really nice joke
well known poster , what a argument

Some discussions never die

No matter what happens, Nibali is in a no win situation (even if he wins). If he is stronger than Contador at this Tour then it's because of the Giro in Contador's legs. If Nibali is stronger than Contador at next years Tour it will be because Contador is too old.

They have never had an all out fairs fair battle royale. And they never will.

When Contador destroyed Nibali in GT's such as the 2011 Giro and 2009 Tour, one could always say that Nibali was too young.

As it is I am leaning towards Nibali to have a better 2014 Tour than Contador. But I will be barracking for Alberto.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Nibali was going flat out while AC looked so easy.

Indeed , it was so funny, damn Alberto was in monster shape, I hope he can get close to that form this year

ofc your eyes see what you want to see
in that day Alberto put very small gap not only on Nibali but even on other riders, 2 days later Nibali gave much more time to them, ofc on longer ascent but less steeper
fact is Nibali was best rider in that TDF no matter your personal feelings which does not count at all
I am just curious what non sense excuses you will say after this tour, If Nibali will be weak and he will loose lot of time I will tell, you were right, sorry for that I believed in him so much, can you do the same? honestly

Ahh July will be great. Nibali and his fantrolls will be put in their place. I cannot wait

 

[del1962]

Even at the end of that cobbled stage Contador didn't look good and from what I remember was getting dropped after the cobbles where over though. I think it would have been difficult to take the time back on Nibali but we will never know so the arguments will continue

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Even at the end of that cobbled stage Contador didn't look good and from what I remember was getting dropped after the cobbles where over though. I think it would have been difficult to take the time back on Nibali but we will never know so the arguments will continue

Indeed, he suffered like a dog. Can you blame him? No.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Contador didn't wanna risk a crash on the cobbles, nothing to with going into the red.

Absolutelly non sense, he risked anyway, he only did not have legs and skill to handle his bike to follow Astana with Nibali, you are not going to loose more then 2 minutes only because you do not want to risk

Thanks for making my point i guess? it's very likely contador didn't have the skills thus didn't wanna risk going crazy. Once again rain on cobbles is completely different.

And give me one guys who can still look good after going over the cobbles in the rain? Besides going over cobbles doesn't mean anything for the climbing form either way.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Contador didn't wanna risk a crash on the cobbles, nothing to with going into the red.

Absolutelly non sense, he risked anyway, he only did not have legs and skill to handle his bike to follow Astana with Nibali, you are not going to loose more then 2 minutes only because you do not want to risk

Thanks for making my point i guess? it's very likely contador didn't have the skills thus didn't wanna risk going crazy. Once again rain on cobbles is completely different.

Indeed. Even some cobble specialists can't deal with wet cobbles.