Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

It's all over, done, finito. I personally don't think that Nibali might have outclimbed Bertie in TdF but I think he would have limited his losses and keep the yellow until Paris. He was very good in the last week, his TT was good while not pushing to the max and taking risks. Those 2:35 minutes he had in front at the point Contador crashed could have been enough.

Good post well thought out and objective

 

[phanatic]

Re: Re:

Anyway I will repeat what I posted a few minutes ago:
He thought he was racing for the stage win, so was preparing for a sprint, but then he saw someone had already finished so decided to take a few seconds.

Why would going for a stage win prevent him from attacking earlier and taking more time?

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

So what did it indicate about Samu? About Contador? About Hesjedal? About Evans?

I'd say that Contador was probably not in the best form of his life. He barely made inroads into Schleck in the TT that year, for example. My original argument was that if uphill finishes with 3 seconds gained can tell you something, then you cannot disregard a stage where a race favourite takes 2min30 on another favourite. You make it sound as if cobbles are 100% uncorrelated to anything else. I don't think so.

So Samu was in poor shape as well?

To me it indicated nothing. Some of those who were in front were in very good shape, some just in fine shape. The same for those behind, with a mix of shapes. There's no visible correlation.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Anyway I will repeat what I posted a few minutes ago:
He thought he was racing for the stage win, so was preparing for a sprint, but then he saw someone had already finished so decided to take a few seconds.

Why would going for a stage win prevent him from attacking earlier and taking more time?

He wasn't sure just how good Nibali was obviously. So he chose to wait and then sprint for the win

 

[riodouro]

1 - Froome
2 - Quintana
3 - Contador (hoping first)
4 - Nibali
5 - Valverde

 

[Oliver]

Re:

It's all over, done, finito. I personally don't think that Nibali might have outclimbed Bertie in TdF but I think he would have limited his losses and keep the yellow until Paris. He was very good in the last week, his TT was good while not pushing to the max and taking risks. Those 2:35 minutes he had in front at the point Contador crashed could have been enough.

I agree with this. 1 year later... what a stupid discussions. Unfortunately crashes happen in cycling. This year we can lose other guys, that's the way it is...

If Nibali really was that bad last year like everybody is thinking. I just can say poor other GC guys. Then how many minutes will they all lose to Contador/Froome/Quintana this year?!!

 

[del1962]

Re:

Froome was better in one stage and contador in 2 other stages. No clue how the crash affected froome but contador still was the best climber, whether or not froome wasn't as good doesn't change that.

The only reason he was better was because Froome crashed, nothing you say changes that either

 

[qwer]

Re: Re:

Froome was better in one stage and contador in 2 other stages. No clue how the crash affected froome but contador still was the best climber, whether or not froome wasn't as good doesn't change that.

The only reason he was better was because Froome crashed, nothing you say changes that either

contador never does a stunning dauphiné, look to 2007,2009 and 2010

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Froome was better in one stage and contador in 2 other stages. No clue how the crash affected froome but contador still was the best climber, whether or not froome wasn't as good doesn't change that.

The only reason he was better was because Froome crashed, nothing you say changes that either

contador never does a stunning dauphiné, look to 2007,2009 and 2010

Either Contador's blistering 2014 pre Tour form was indicative (as in, when he's in that form, he'll be stronger at the Tour than if he isn't in that form) or it wasn't. You can't have it both ways.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Either Contador's blistering 2014 pre Tour form was indicative (as in, when he's in that form, he'll be stronger at the Tour than if he isn't in that form) or it wasn't. You can't have it both ways.

Who said it wasn't indicative

 

[ad9898]

It's good to speculate and debate, I think everyone is excited to see the first MTF in the tour, until then we'll never quite know where it's going. Contador was monstrous on the Mortirolo, for me the best climb I've seen him do and in my humble opinion the fastest 'proper' ascent of the mountain as others that were faster clearly in retrospect had double their normal red blood cell count.

If Alberto can bring that sort of climbing along with the best TT of the Giro (wind change caused him to lose that), he'll be pretty unbeatable, his team though have to show up !

 

[Windsor1334]

1)Nibali
2)Quintana
3)Pinot
4) Bardet
5) Contador

 

[ninjadriver]

Contador At His Best

It's good to speculate and debate, I think everyone is excited to see the first MTF in the tour, until then we'll never quite know where it's going. Contador was monstrous on the Mortirolo, for me the best climb I've seen him do and in my humble opinion the fastest 'proper' ascent of the mountain as others that were faster clearly in retrospect had double their normal red blood cell count.

If Alberto can bring that sort of climbing along with the best TT of the Giro (wind change caused him to lose that), he'll be pretty unbeatable, his team though have to show up !

Contador climbing Verbier in the 2009 TDF was terrifying, leaving Andy Schleck and Contador's own Astana Kloden/Armstrong/Leipheimer team in the dust, and Contador was simply awesome throughout the 2011 Giro, including when he gifted the Zoncolan stage to Igor Anton, and toyed with the field throughout. I believe the 2011 Giro was Contador at his absolute zenith.

 

[greenedge]

Re: Re:

[quote="

Nonetheless, with his incredible showing in the Ardennes, with Tour having hilly stages and time bonuses and with one of the great injustices of cycling being that Alejandro hasn't been on the podium of the Tour yet, I feel compelled to predict:

1. Dawg
2. Contador
3. Valverde
4. Nibali
5. Quintana

I hope Contador wins, though.

For one reason why it's not an injustice, go to the Clinic. The one year where he should have podiumed is last year, and the only injustice then was one committed by himself (failing to beat Pinot and JCP), riders who he is better than- all respect to them.

 

[Tonton]

Contador never beat me in a bike race...

 

[jalep]

Really would love to see Contador win the Giro-Tour double this year but it doesn't sound realistic. He couldn't do it in 2011. There were challenges and issues Contador was dealing with which were maybe a reason for the early race crashes. Then he put in an heroic effort in the mountains but the legs were not there. It's my own wishful thinking to put him on the top step of the podium and I can't do it. His giro win this year was glorious in my eyes. But the competition in the Tour will be stronger and have the physical edge. Hope I am wrong. Another scenario I like to imagine is Contador pulling it off somehow. and out of his sheer determination and masterful road management, plus having a strong third week - he does win

It's win or not even podium with Contdaor....2nd place, 3rd place is no good. In the case that he won't win the Tour, I would hope he gets out and go wins another Vuelta!

Froome was complaining about this Tour from the moment he saw the lack of ITT. Even if he wins Dauphine, I just can't trust Froome on the road after last year. Great climber, sure. Great GC overall rider? He has one convincing win to his name - TDF 2013. But really the competition was weak(Contador) and inexperienced (Quintana) that year. Nibali, in the shape of his life in the Giro 2013 was not there. Nibali was overweight and underestimated Horner in the Vuelta 2013...still came in 2nd.

Too many unknowns to make a list but if I did, I would put Contador either 1st or off the podium. Froome, Nibali, or Quintana should round out the podium if Contador wins it. But I doubt it all goes to plan.

Feels like Pinot is going to be there again; just a feeling. Perhaps a different Frenchie, but one of them anyway.

Also looks like a reasonably good edition for Purito to get himself up there, or Valverde.

Okay...

1) One of the favorites
2) An old guy
3) A Frenchie
4) One of the favorites
5) One of the favorites

 

[phanatic]

Re: Re:

He wasn't sure just how good Nibali was obviously. So he chose to wait and then sprint for the win

I had a vague, and likely incorrect memory, that he wanted Nibali to pull, but Nibali refused and promised him the stage, and when he realized he'd been duped, he took a few seconds, and that this is why he spit in anger following the stage. Funnily enough, the time Bertie was down on Nibali after stage 8 of the TDF is almost exactly the same as the time he lost to Aru on Sestriere.

 

[DDavies]

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Fuglsang
4. Contador
5. Majka
6. Pinot
7. Valverde
...

 

[Broccolidwarf]

What a Tour we are in for..... great course, Normandy winds, team TT, cobbles, muirs, short individual TT, and then big mountains all the way through (including some long decends to make it a fair fight for Nibali).

As for the top 5, everyone would pic the same top 4 (in no particular order):

Quintana
Nibali
Contador
Froome

- but there are so many other riders that could do well in the GC, if they get to ride a trouble free Tour:

Pinot
Majka
Porte
Bardet
Aru
Hesjedal
Fuglsang
Pozzovivo
Landa (probably doesn't start)
Rodriguez
Valverde
Peraud
Uran
Kwiatkowski
Roche (if Contador quits)
Kelderman

I cannot possibly be expected to pick a 5th for a top 5, with 16 riders to pick between - but I will say, we are getting one hell of a Tour this year, all the stars align

 

[ILovecycling]

I cant stop asking myself...do people really know that this year cobbles stage is half of difficulty that from 2014? And there is not very big chance it will rain either.
But ok keep Nibali odds low, good for us

 

[SeriousSam]

Nibali's odds aren't that good. He and Contador are only at around 5, quite a bit behind Quintana and Froome. Of course, everyone not part of the Big 4 has pretty much no chance.

Seems about right.

 

[greenedge]

[quote="Broccolidwarf
- but there are so many other riders that could do well in the GC, if they get to ride a trouble free Tour:

Pinot
Majka
Porte
Bardet
Aru
Hesjedal
Fuglsang
Pozzovivo
Landa (probably doesn't start)
Rodriguez
Valverde
Peraud
Uran
Kwiatkowski
Roche (if Contador quits)
Kelderman

I cannot possibly be expected to pick a 5th for a top 5, with 16 riders to pick between - but I will say, we are getting one hell of a Tour this year, all the stars align [/quote]

I agree with that list, but no Talansky or Rolland (even Gesink/ Mollema)? I'd be immensely surprised if Kwiatowski> not enough ITT km's. Roche isn't on the same team as Contador anymore either.

 

[cineteq]

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Fuglsang
4. Contador
5. Majka
6. Pinot
7. Valverde
...

It kind of makes sense.

 

[Velolover2]

What a Tour we are in for..... great course, Normandy winds, team TT, cobbles, muirs, short individual TT, and then big mountains all the way through (including some long decends to make it a fair fight for Nibali).

As for the top 5, everyone would pic the same top 4 (in no particular order):

Quintana
Nibali
Contador
Froome

- but there are so many other riders that could do well in the GC, if they get to ride a trouble free Tour:

Pinot
Majka
Porte
Bardet
Aru
Hesjedal
Fuglsang
Pozzovivo
Landa (probably doesn't start)
Rodriguez
Valverde
Peraud
Uran
Kwiatkowski
Roche (if Contador quits)
Kelderman

I cannot possibly be expected to pick a 5th for a top 5, with 16 riders to pick between - but I will say, we are getting one hell of a Tour this year, all the stars align

No love for Merica? (Tejay and Talansky) And Landa definitely wouldn't start. But yeah, so many to choose from.

Dan Martin and Mollema should also be there if Kwiatkowski is included.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I agree with that list, but no Talansky or Rolland (even Gesink/ Mollema)? I'd be immensely surprised if Kwiatowski> not enough ITT km's. Roche isn't on the same team as Contador anymore either.

Lol, forgot about Roche changing teams - you are right

Talansky, Rolland, Gesink and Mollema are not going into the top 5 imo - the list of riders I posted all could, with the right circumstances.