Prediction - best rider of the 2020s

[johnymax]

Because barely any of the big riders in history focused on it?

This is true. But every Tour win is not the same and every Vuelta win is not the same. One can fluke/surprise with one Tour win and never win a GT again. While winning 4 GTs is hardly a fluke, even if it's the Vuelta, the least prestigious of the three. So I remain of my point of view, saying 4 Vueltas equals 1 Tour is laughable.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Does that mean that you generally rate GC riders higher?

Yes, probably. But looking at WVA, MVP and Ala they will take away a lot of victories from each other and I'm not sure if any of them will be that dominant to be ahead of a guy with 5 GTs for example. If one of them ends up with much better than the other two then he can be even in top3 (I'm leaning towards MVP or WVA here).

 

[CyclistAbi]

A lot of big names have a Vuelta win. As for the prestige. I would say both Roglič and Vuelta gained some of that in the last years. In addition assuming surpassing Rogličes achievements is a given. For some of the young cyclists discussed in this thread. I wouldn't be all that sure about that. Most of them won't ever reach such level.

 

[OlavEH]

Yes, probably. But looking at WVA, MVP and Ala they will take away a lot of victories from each other and I'm not sure if any of them will be that dominant to be ahead of a guy with 5-6 GT for example. If one of them ends up with much better than the other two then he can be even in top3 (I'm leaning towards MVP or WVA here).

Perhaps. I think it depends on how Van Aert and Van der Poel will prioritize in the coming years. Van Aert is IMO the best candidate to be the first to win all five monuments since De Vlaeminck. But then he must have to focus less on CX racing, sprints and mountain stages. If he does this, I could definitely see him winning 6-7-8 monuments during the 2020s even competing against Van der Poel in some of them.

And Van der Poel has a combination of explosivity and engine I've rarely or ever seen. That makes him especially suited for races like RVV. And he is probably the best suited rider I've ever seen to explode on Poggio and win MSR a least a couple of times during his career. There are 40 monuments left in the 2020s. In addition to 10 Olympics/Worlds. I could easily see these two guys at least winning 12-15 of these combined. But that presume that the avoid serious accidents, and that they go all in for road racing.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Perhaps. I think it depends on how Van Aert and Van der Poel will prioritize in the coming years. Van Aert is IMO the best candidate to be the first to win all five monuments since De Vlaeminck. But then he must have to focus less on CX racing, sprints and mountain stages. If he does this, I could see him winning 6-7-8 monuments during the 2020s even competing against Van der Poel in some of them.

And Van der Poel has a combination of explosivity and engine I've rarely or ever seen. That makes him especially suited for races like RVV. And he is probably the best suited rider I've ever seen to explode on Poggio and win MSR a least a couple of times during his career. There are 40 monuments left in the 2020s. I could easily see these two guys at least winning 12-15 of these combined. But that presume that the avoid serious accidents, and that they go all in for road racing.

Well, if they end up with 7-8 monuments each they will obviously be up there in the first tier. But it's not so easy to win a monument. None of them won any this year and they were undoubtedly in top form.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

The fact is Roglic has tried win the most-prestigious GT (TdF) and second-most prestigious GT (Giro) and failed every single time.
He needs to win many, many more Vueltas to come close to Pogacar's 2 TdFs or even Bernal's 1 TdF + 1 Giro. Outside of that. he has 1 less monument than Pogacar.

Roglic is good rider and might end up Top 15 of the decade but it's too much to make up as a 32-year old to come close to the top.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

That is correct. And that is also why I ranked Remco only as number 4 while Pogacar was at the top. But Remco is only 21, Roglic is 11 years older. During the 2020s I think Remco will have a bigger career than Roglic.

This seems a little unfair as Roglic is on the downward slope of his career and Remco is on the upward slope of his career during this decade, it's a little obvious Remco could have a better career as Roglic, IF he lives up to his much spoken about potential. Roglic already has GT's and multiple stage wins under his belt so Remco has a bit of catching up to do.

 

[OlavEH]

Well, if they end up with 7-8 monuments each they will obviously be up there in the first tier. But it's not so easy to win a monument. None of them won any this year and they were undoubtedly in top form.

Van der Poel probably was in top form in mid March, but the insane TA could have been the reason he didn't won the RVV. And the crash in the Olympics definitely hampered him in the fall season.

Van Aert tried to do absolutely everything this year. Spring classics, sprints and mountain stages in the Tour, both road race and ITT in the Olympics, the same in Worlds and then Paris-Roubaix. He tried to bite off more than he could chew.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Van der Poel probably was in top form in mid March, but the insane TA could have been the reason he didn't won the RVV. And the crash in the Olympics definitely hampered him in the fall season.

Van Aert tried to do absolutely everything this year. Spring classics, sprints and mountain stages in the Tour, both road race and ITT in the Olympics, the same in Worlds and then Paris-Roubaix. He tried to bite off more than he could chew.

The TA was really amazing this year. Only early march and Pog & MVP & WVA basically peaking and tiring themselves.

 

[Bolder]

Based on timing, Pogacar is miles ahead, because his peak started in 2020 at age 21. That alone gives him a nearly insurmountable head start. Put another way, he will be Roglic's age in 2030...

 

[OlavEH]

The TA was really amazing this year. Only early march and Pog & MVP & WVA basically peaking and tiring themselves.

Yeah. But they need to avoid doing that kind of stunts in the coming years.

Btw, it's a bit strange that probably 3 of the 4 most exciting classic riders could prioritze different type of races at least the first couple of seasons from now. That's a bit strange.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pogacar had a great start and a great age. It's no guarantee. But chances are high..

Van der Poel and Van Aert were already a bit older when the 20's started. Think Pidcock, Evenepoel, Almeida and Bernal are most likely to be most succesful in this decade if it isn't Poga

 

[OlavEH]

Van der Poel and Van Aert were already a bit older when the 20's started. Think Pidcock, Evenepoel, Almeida and Bernal are most likely to be most succesful in this decade if it isn't Poga

Or Van Aert and/or Van der Poel could be highly successful well into their 30s, while some of the younger fades like Quintana or Aru. Usually the top riders have their biggest wins within a 7-8 year period. That would give Van Aert and Van der Poel until something like 2026-27, and the rest of the guys more or less the entire 2020s. But be more successful, the younger guys would probably have to beat the Vans several times before that. Or Almeida will have to beat Pogacar (and Roglic the next couple of years). I'm not sure if that is the most plausible scenario given that Van Aert and Van der Poel will go all-in for road racing.

The one rider I'm mostly curios about is Pidcock. What will be his speciality in 3 or 5 years?

 

[CyclistAbi]

The fact is Roglic has tried win the most-prestigious GT (TdF) and second-most prestigious GT (Giro) and failed every single time.
He needs to win many, many more Vueltas to come close to Pogacar's 2 TdFs or even Bernal's 1 TdF + 1 Giro. Outside of that. he has 1 less monument than Pogacar.

Roglic is good rider and might end up Top 15 of the decade but it's too much to make up as a 32-year old to come close to the top.

Then again in the same year won another GT. And saying he didn't win Giro every single time. That totals to 1. As for coming close to Pogačar. If Roglič wins TDF 2022 he likely will already be there. As for saying Bernal is ahead of Roglič already. This is a nice example on how it's not all about statistic anyway. Bernal IMHO has some catching up to do. To be considered higher then Roglič. He is still young hence it's possible. But if Roglič has 3 more good seasons. Then it will be hard for Bernal to achieve that.

 

[Parker]

Most likely Pogacar, but you never know what is around the corner. At the age of 23 Laurent Fignon had won two Tours and come second in the Giro.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think we forgot about one guy here: Vingegaard. He could have a great GT career ahead.

 

[RedheadDane]

Some 17-year-old kid we don't really know about.

 

[tobydawq]

Some 17-year-old kid we don't really know about.

Do you really think that?

 

[tobydawq]

When the same thread was made two years ago, I said Roglic (nobody else did, probably because of his age). He did get a good start.

 

[Red Rick]

When the same thread was made two years ago, I said Roglic (nobody else did, probably because of his age). He did get a good start.

Don't think many questioned he'd do very well in 2020-2021 though.

But he's objectively behind a 23 year old already.

 

[tobydawq]

Don't think many questioned he'd do very well in 2020-2021 though.

But he's objectively behind a 23 year old already.

True, other riders got a really good start too!

 

[RedheadDane]

Do you really think that?

At the rate people are having their break-throughs, and are then considered old, yeah... somewhat. I think I've even seen someone claim that Pogacar is getting old...

 

[Blanco]

The fact is Roglic has tried win the most-prestigious GT (TdF) and second-most prestigious GT (Giro) and failed every single time.
He needs to win many, many more Vueltas to come close to Pogacar's 2 TdFs or even Bernal's 1 TdF + 1 Giro. Outside of that. he has 1 less monument than Pogacar.

Roglic is good rider and might end up Top 15 of the decade but it's too much to make up as a 32-year old to come close to the top.

Roglic is way ahead of Bernal...

 

[CyclistAbi]

And lets not forget cyclists like Pogačar or any other on the list still need a ski jumping trophy or two. That could take a couple of years more.

P.S. All of the sudden 23 is not so young anymore.

 

[CyclistAbi]

What i feel could end up being beneficial for Roglič is winning Tour when already in the Pogačar era. As lets say Roglič would by now have two Tour titles and Pogačar would start winning the Tour around 2022. From Roglič point of view some people would likely tend to diminish his two Tour titles. Contrary to winning a Tour title against established Eddy. Froome would likely trade two Tour titles for a chance at that. And on the long run it likely won't dent Pogačar long term goals. As being beaten by the man who beat Eddy. No shame in that. On the contrary likely a chance to earn some sympathy and panache.

We'll see.