Prediction Game

[Merckx]

Ok guys, you know what.. I hate to do it, but I think that's going to be it for the Giro. Having the 2 stages separated by as many days proved to be too hard for everyone to send in picks. I apologize profoundly for the let down this final week has been, and hope you guys understand

Thanks to everyone who DID send in their picks. I agree that it doesn't really seem fair that those who were punctual got "punished" in a way. However when almost half of the participants fail to send me their predictions, it kind of messes with the actual results of the pool.

So, to reiterate; the TT will not be counting tomorrow, and hopefully I will have the time to tabulate the Blockhaus stage (as well as the overall classifications) by tomorrow night.

Again, sorry to everyone for the inconvenience. At least we learned (for future GTs) that stages must be spaced out, so that everyone is on the same page.

Also, the Dauphine is starting soon, I'm thinking 2 stages (on top of the classifications picks) ought to do it. Please send me suggestions for that soon.

Thanks and good night,

Merckx

 

[ingsve]

I guess it's a good thing the stage does not count as the rain makes it a real crap shoot.

 

[titan_90]

Ok guys, you know what.. I hate to do it, but I think that's going to be it for the Giro. Having the 2 stages separated by as many days proved to be too hard for everyone to send in picks. I apologize profoundly for the let down this final week has been, and hope you guys understand

Thanks to everyone who DID send in their picks. I agree that it doesn't really seem fair that those who were punctual got "punished" in a way. However when almost half of the participants fail to send me their predictions, it kind of messes with the actual results of the pool.

So, to reiterate; the TT will not be counting tomorrow, and hopefully I will have the time to tabulate the Blockhaus stage (as well as the overall classifications) by tomorrow night.

Again, sorry to everyone for the inconvenience. At least we learned (for future GTs) that stages must be spaced out, so that everyone is on the same page.

Also, the Dauphine is starting soon, I'm thinking 2 stages (on top of the classifications picks) ought to do it. Please send me suggestions for that soon.

Thanks and good night,

Merckx

Two stages plus classification picks sounds good for the Dauphine. I am thinking one stage must be the stage to Mont Ventoux and one of the flat stages.

 

[lookkg386]

Oh well, had only 1 of the top 5 so not too upset

Are the final results in or is it still to be updated?

 

[Martin]

Well, I think we all have to thank Merckx for doing this great job - I can imagine he is going crazy right now, if he's doing it all manually though excel spreadsheets. We all owe him something, I personally wouldn't have enough time for doing something same.
I was wondering, if he is doing it manually if there is some way to automate all these processes. As former PHP programmer (active in PHP4) I can imagine making some thin client application to automate all this processes. As I see, cyclingnews is using PHP engine as well... Well.. I have many ideas in my head... do you think it would be wise to contact them that we would like to automate this game... we just need a place to insert our predictions, and place where to see our current standings... adn if we'll get the chance to connect to their database, just to read the results, it could be all in real time... Merckx or anybody else wouldn't have to do any job...
BAHHHHHH.... what a strange idea..

 

[Merckx]

Hey guys! Extremely sorry about that last week, was busy at work + I had to go out of town for a bit. In any case, the standings for that Blockhaus stage + overall classifications has been updated. Unless you guys calculated the stuff yourself, you may see some surprises.

The biggest winner for the Giro was obviously Martin who rocketed up to second place overall (accumulating a whopping 77 points with classifications picks + Blockhaus). Congrats to him, and congrats to 180mmcrank for solidifying his lead at the top.

Unfortunately, the biggest "loser" in the Giro was Bartoli who plummeted from 2nd to 16th. It just goes to show that this pool is still really up for grabs. Gigantic leads can be made in an instant, and lost just as easily!

I was happy with the way the Classifications picks worked out. At first, I thought that it would be free points and that everyone would just end up getting everything right (and thus only inflating the total scores). However, there was a veritable plurality in the riders chosen for each category. Further, only 2 people managed to correctly predict Menchov as the Giro winner. While we may be convinced initially that a rider will do well, anything can happen in the span of 3 weeks.

I will be looking at the Dauphine stages when I get back from work today and will finalize those tonight. I want to thank all of you for being patient with me while the updates were slow, and hopefully things run smoother for the upcoming races. Thanks as well to all of you who were punctual in sending me their picks. As I mentioned it helps alot if I don't have to wake up at 4:30-5:00 AM to make sure that everyone got their stuff in on time.

Final note: I am looking for someone who will be able to update the pool during the TDF, as I will be in France during that time, seeing the race Live! (I don't think I'll have regular access to a computer). We'll need to establish a volunteer ahead of time, that way there aren't any confusions with picks.


Alright, I think that's it.. Dauphine starts soon, so make sure you send me your classifications picks soon guys!!

Cheers,

Merckx

 

[Merckx]

Further note.. I know it sounds stupid, but please send me your picks for individual stages in the following format only:

( Rider 1, Rider 2, Rider 3, Rider 4, Rider 5).


This saves me time because all I have to do is copy/paste. I don't need to format 23 different "styles" for the thread.

 

[Merckx]

Reminder to everyone, the dauphine starts on Sunday and I have only received 4 Classifications picks. Please make sure you get those in soon!

As far as the stages, I think we will only be predicting the Mont Ventoux (Stage 5), although if someone really wants another stage we still have a bit of time to discuss it.

Cheers,

Merckx

 

[marshan]

The Valence ITT is appealing as it is right before the Ventoux stage.

 

[Merckx]

Attached are the GC predictions:

Merckx: GC: Contador, Evans || KOM: Nibali, Valverde || Points: Valverde, Evans || Young Rider: Gesink, Nibali || Team: Astana

Martin: GC:Contador, Gesink|| KOMauriol, Efimkin|| Points:Valverde, Evans|| Young Rider:Gesink, Nibali || Team:Euskatel-Euskadi

aarnold517: GC: Contador, Valverde || KOM: Contador, DiGregorio || Points: Valverde, Evans || Young Rider: Gesink, Nibali || Team: Astana

bluebeard: GC: Valverde, Contador || KOM: Szmyd, Montcoutie || Points: Nibali, Steegmans || Young Rider: Gesink, Martin || Team: Caisse D

ak-zaaf: GC: Valverde, Gesink || KOM, Trofimov, Cobo || Points: Valverde, Hushovd || Young Rider: Gesink, Martin || Team: Caisse D

ingsve: GC: Contador, Evans || KOM: Contador, Cobo || Points: Renshaw, Valverde || Young Rider: Nibali, Gesink | Team: Astana

titan_90: GC: Contador, Valverde | KOM: Cobo, Di Gregorio || Points: Valverde, Contador || Young Rider: Gesink, Nibali || Team: Astana

Kazistuta: GC: Evans || KOM: Anton || Points: Valverde || Young Rider: Nibali || Team: Liquigas

Cosette: GC: Valverde, Contador || KOM: Flecha, Di Gregorio || Points, Chavanel, Vaitkus || Young Rider: Nibali, Gesink || Team: Liquigas

wheels55: GC: Contador, Valverde || KOM: Gesink, Dessel || Points: Valverde, Evans || Young Rider: Gesink, Martin || Team: Astana

marshan: GC: Contador, Evans || KOM: Efimkin, Martinez || Points: Boonen, Valverde || Young Rider: Dekker, Gesink || Team: Eustkalter-Euskadi

Indurain: GC: Contador, Basso || KOM: Rolland, Di Gregorio || Points: Contador, Valverde || Young Rider: Gesink, Nibali || Team: Liquigas

Flahute: GC: Valverde

Lookkg386: GC: Contador

Jaylew: GC: Valverde, Gesink || KOM: Montcoutie, Di Gregorio || Points: Valverde, Contador | Young Rider: Gesink, Nibali || Team: Liquigas

Bartoli: GC: Contador, Valverde || KOM: Rolland, Anton || Points: Valverde, Boonen || Young Rider: Gesink, Uran || Team: Silence-Lotto

El Imbatido: GC: Valverde, Contador || KOM: Moncoutie, Gesink || Points: Boonen, Valverde || Young Rider: Gesink, Nibali || Team: Astana

peloton: GC: Valverde, Evans || KOM: Valverde, Basso || Points: Boonen, Steegmans || Young Rider: Dekker, Gesink || Team: Liquigas

180mmcrank: GC: Contador, Valverde || KOM: Gesink, Sitsov || Points: Steegmans, Boonen || Young Rider: Martin, Gesink || Team: Astana

R. Forster: GC: Contador, Valverde || KOM: Evans, Contador || Points: Boonen, Steegmans ||


Seeing as 3 of you failed to send me "real" GC predictions, I will be generous and allow you to send me ONE (1) pick for each of the remaining categories. (Do not send me a pick for GC). You have until tomorrow morning to send me your complete and updated GC picks. To be fair to everyone else, if you choose to amend your list, you also have until tomorrow morning to do so.

I probably shouldn't be doing that, but I feel like everyone should have a fair shot at earning points...


Also, and most importantly: The stage you will be sending me your predictions for, will be: Thursday, June 11 -- Stage 5 ^ Valence → Mont-Ventoux (154k)

(edit) Also, wheels55 was right, I don't think there is an official young rider's category for this event. Do you guys want to determine who is the virtual "young rider" winner, ourselves? Or just scrap it altogether?

 

[Bluebeard]

Great work as ever compiling all this Merckx.

As regards the Young Rider category, only five riders (Gesink RAB, Martin GAR, Nibali LIQ, Dekker SIL, Uran CSE) hve been picked, all under 25 by the end of the race. Of these, Dekker was not selected for the race. In that case, I think that the highest finishing of the remaining four should be simple enough to work out, so I think we should go for it.

 

[Merckx]

Great work as ever compiling all this Merckx.

As regards the Young Rider category, only five riders (Gesink RAB, Martin GAR, Nibali LIQ, Dekker SIL, Uran CSE) hve been picked, all under 25 by the end of the race. Of these, Dekker was not selected for the race. In that case, I think that the highest finishing of the remaining four should be simple enough to work out, so I think we should go for it.

Sounds good! Young rider will be kept for the event.

 

[tourtoto]

Ola,

Why don't you guys set up a cyclingnews.com subleague at www.tourtoto.net

The site is available in 12 languages so you can compete agaist the rest of the world, its free and you don't have to update the scores yourself.

regards,
michael

 

[Merckx]

*cough* *cough*. Reminder, tomorrow is the Dauphine Libere stage. Please get your picks in, ASAP.

 

[Merckx]

Hey guys! Here they are - the picks for tomorrow's TDF Ventoux preview!!

Merckx: ( Evans, Contador, Astarloza, Nibali, Valverde )
180mmCrank: ( Contador, Evans, Basso, Gesink, Valverde )
K. Robbins: ( Contador, Evans, Gesink, Nibali, Basso )
Cosette: ( Contador, Astarloza, Valverde, Gesink, Nibali)
ak-zaaf: ( Contador, Gesink, Evans, Basso, Uran )
lookkg386: ( Contador, Evans, Nibali, Astarloza, Valverde )
jaylew: ( Gesink, Evans, Contador, Astarloza, Valverde )
R. Forster: ( Contador, Evans, Gesink, Valverde, Basso )
Bartoli: (Contador, Valverde, Evans, Basso, Antón)
wheels55: ( Contador, Evans, Valverde, Gesink, Astarloza)
titan_90: ( Contador, Valverde, Evans, Gesink, Nibali )
Martin: ( Contador, Evans, Valverde, Gesink, Nibali )
Indurain: ( Basso, Contador, Evans, Valverde, Nibali)
aarnold517: ( Contador, Valverde, Evans, Basso, Gesink )
Kazistuta: (Anton, Evans, Valverde, Basso, Gesink)
El Imbatido: Valverde, Contador, Evans, Gesink, Basso )
Bluebeard: ( D. Martin / Pereiro / Intxaurraga / Gesink / Contador )
ingsve: ( Contador, Basso, Evans, Valverde, Nibali )
marshan: ( Szmyd, Anton, Evans, Zubeldia, Contador )
flahute: ( Valverde, Evans, Astarloza, Gesink, Nibali )

As far as the TDS, which is starting in 3 days. I'll be taking that off the schedule, and replacing it with something later on in the season.

Good luck to all tomorrow!

 

[El Imbatido]

Do some of you guys know something about Astarloza and Anton that i dont.
Alot of you guys picked them. I know they are good riders that are good in the mountains but i didnt think they were in the league of Contador, Evans, Valverde, Basso etc.

Are they gonna try "the old discovery 1 , 2" as Paul Sherwen put it in the 07 tdf

But other than that and a few people getting behind Nibali. Most of the picks are Contador, Evans, Valverde, Basso

So basically whoever scores most in the correct order will be the winner of today, unless and it is a big unless, the break gets away but i cant see that happening, with evans and valverde wanting the overall victory.

 

[Eldrack]

Surely has to be Valverde or Contador on Mont Ventoux today. Time gap won't be big though, Contador is playing it safe and Valverde just can't drop people like that.

 

[ak-zaaf]

ventoux might be too steep/long for valverde.

it all depends on how hard they're gonna make this race.
i wanted to predict a win for gesink, but i didn't wanna jinx it ;p


/edit: nm


i never really liked valverde, but the way he risked the lead by waiting for szmyd was huge. (valverde doesn't need a little more money right? )


kudos for the guy picking szmyd in de predictions btw. nice one.

 

[titan_90]

Great job marshan for picking Szmyd for the win

 

[wheels55]

Great job marshan for picking Szmyd for the win

Second that!! I had him on my long list but figured he'd be towing Ivan the terrible again today...dang!

 

[lookkg386]

Great job marshan for picking Szmyd for the win

Yeah great get, I think most of us thought Contador would turn it on at will...

 

[marshan]

Thanks guys, just got my share of luck!
Also to Alejandro for waiting up on Sylvester in the run to the finish.
I picked him for placing 2nd to Moreau in a similar stage in Dauphine'07
and having good form in the Giro.

 

[El Imbatido]

Im so cut. They obviously had an agreement and kudos to Valverde for honouring it but i had Valverde in the predictions and was thinking i would be close to taking Yellow. I feel like zabel in that sprint where he celebrated too early and Freire beat him.

 

[ak-zaaf]

are we still doing suisse?

i'm sending in predictions anyway ;p

 

[lookkg386]

are we still doing suisse?

i'm sending in predictions anyway ;p

Yeah I was just checking next race - looks like it's next on the list.