Prediction Game

[180mmCrank]

Yeah I thought Menchov would be up there but not right up there - Sastre is the other one that is really comming to form.

Soler was a little disappointing after his effort yesterday I thought the steeeper stuff might suit him more today but maybe it just wasn't sustained enough.

 

[Merckx]

Sorry guys! Ran out of time. Will be updating the thread tonight!

 

[Merckx]

First page has been updated! Bit of a shakeup in the standings, while Titan_90 solidifies his lead with another strong 12 point performance!

Also, a reminder that the next prediction stage is the 10th one (in 3 days). Please make sure to send your picks in!

Cheers,

Merckx

 

[Merckx]

Reminder to everyone: The next stage is approaching really quickly... Please send in your picks ASAP.

 

[Merckx]

Tomorrow's picks. Looks like it's going to be a wild one with fairly different predictions

Merckx: ( Cunego, Simoni, Sastre, Di Luca, Lokvist )
180mmcrank: ( Di Luca, Pellizotti, Lovkvist, Menchov, Garzelli )
ak-zaaf: ( di luca, boasson hagen, basso, soler, pellizotti )
bartoli: ( Di luca, Menchov, Basso, Lokvist, Leipheimer )
Cosette: ( Sastre, Cunego, Lövkvist, Leipheimer, Di Luca)
R. Forster: ( Soler, Serpa, Cunego, Bosisio, Basso )
K. Robbins: ( Garzelli, Pellizotti, Di Luca, Cunego, Leipheimer )
Flahute: ( Basso, Leipheimer, Sastre, Di Luca, Arroyo )
Ingsve: ( Joaquin Rodriguez, Di Luca, Menchov, Leipheimer, Basso )
Indurain: ( Soler, Di Luca, Cunego, Leipheimer, Pellizotti )
lookkg386: ( Leipheimer, Menchov, Cunego, Lokvist, Basso )
wheels55: (Basso, Leipheimer, Menchov, DiLuca, Lokvist)
titan_90: ( Basso, Leipheimer, Menchov, Di Luca, Simoni )
aarnold517: (Garzelli, Basso, Leipheimer, Menchov, Sastre)
Bluebeard: ( Simoni, Sastre, Horner, Di Luca, Basso )
Kazistuta: (Di Luca, Menchov, Leipheimer, Basso, Soler)
El Imbatido: ( Di Luca, Joaquin Rodriguez, Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers )
marshan: ( Armstrong, Basso, Di Luca, Leipheimer, Simoni )
Martin: ( Soler, Di Luca, Pozzato, Cunego, Basso )


I really wanted to pick Seeldrayers for some reason. Hopefully it doesn't come back to haunt me.

 

[ingsve]

I really wanted to pick Seeldrayers for some reason. Hopefully it doesn't come back to haunt me.

Hehe, I almost picked him as well but then figured he would probably be content with staying up there without risking anything on an attack.

Another name I almost picked was Kessiakoff who probably will try something sooner or later if he keeps feeling good in the climbs. That's more likely on one of the uphill finishes though i thought.

 

[180mmCrank]

I still think that a much more random group could get away from the main group and get a bunch minutes (10 - 15) - obviously not including anyone even close to GC contention.

You might as well stick a pin in the start list...so like everyone else I went for the most likely GC guys to push the pace.

But just for fun here are my random picks...

Efimkin, Millar, Pinotti oh and Voeckler to go for an early suicide break

 

[lookkg386]

I'm kind of tipping Di Luca on cracking, if he stays strong then I'm heading south on the list I think...

 

[Kazistuta]

Well, if a group of non-GT contenders finish in front, I'm sure the likely contenders will be Serpa, Voigt, Serrano, Bosisio and "some guy from Barloworld".... But as you guys pointed out, the risk in picking the needle in the hay was just too high.

 

[ingsve]

I still think that a much more random group could get away from the main group and get a bunch minutes (10 - 15) - obviously not including anyone even close to GC contention.

You might as well stick a pin in the start list...so like everyone else I went for the most likely GC guys to push the pace.

But just for fun here are my random picks...

Efimkin, Millar, Pinotti oh and Voeckler to go for an early suicide break

Getting 10-15 minutes means that the peloton are in no way interested in racing relatively fast at all today which I don't think at all. There are too many teams that hasn't won anything yet so the chances that the peloton would just idle along like in Milan is very unlikely. In fact I don't think I've ever seen that happen on a mountain stage like todays.

 

[El Imbatido]

Looks like a few people forgot to tip (3-4 i think) unlucky them. But as stated above no one has really gone out on a limb. So if the favourites stay together at the front not too much should change, as alot of people have similar tips

 

[jaylew]

Looks like a few people forgot to tip (3-4 i think) unlucky them.

Yeah, sent mine in only ~5 hours before race start and he wouldn't take them. Too bad, I had Garzelli

Fwiw, I had:

Cunego
Di Luca
Menchov
Garzelli
Bosisio

So now of course, I'm really rooting against these guys finishing in the top 5!

 

[Merckx]

Can someone remind me why the hell I keep picking Cunego for wins?!?

 

[El Imbatido]

Can someone remind me why the hell I keep picking Cunego for wins?!?

I learnt that lesson ages ago

Looks like a bit of a shake up on the tally board too, as a couple of high up people didnt have diluca for the win. Yay i finally got a win. And over 9 points so another streak. So hopefully ill keep my polkadot streak leader jersey.

 

[marshan]

somebody correctly picked diluca and pellizotti 1-2 and almost nailed menchov @ 3 but had him @ 4 instead. congratulations!

 

[Merckx]

somebody correctly picked diluca and pellizotti 1-2 and almost nailed menchov @ 3 but had him @ 4 instead. congratulations!

Standings have been updated! Congratulations to all the big winners today, especially 180mmcrank who rocketed up the standings (25 point performance!!!) Titan_90 still sits atop the GC - perhaps he is saving up his strength for the Stage 12 ITT

Thanks everyone for your picks. And a reminder that the next stage is in under 2 days time. Please send me your picks ASAP for the time trial

Also, for those who are not already doing it, please send me your picks in the following format:

( Rider 1, Rider 2, Rider 3, Rider 4, Rider 5 )

It saves me alot of trouble if I can just copy paste everyone's picks

Thats all for now,

Merckx

 

[180mmCrank]

somebody correctly picked diluca and pellizotti 1-2 and almost nailed menchov @ 3 but had him @ 4 instead. congratulations!

Yeah a little bit of fortune here - and I feel a little sheepish have posted earlier that I thought this might be a day for the random break-away

Still make hay while the sun shines

 

[lookkg386]

I'm kind of tipping Di Luca on cracking, if he stays strong then I'm heading south on the list I think...

shaking head..........

 

[Merckx]

No worries Lookkg386.. My picks, lately, haven't been spectacular either.

In other news: Another reminder, I am still missing 7 predictions for tomorrow's ITT. Please send me your picks ASAP!!!!!

 

[Merckx]

Tomorrow's predictions:

Merckx: ( Menchov, Leipheimer, Rogers, Basso, Di Luca )
peloton: ( Menchov, Rogers, Basso, Armstrong, Leipheimer )
wheels55: ( Leipheimer, Rogers, Bruseghin, Lokvist, Armstrong )
Lookkg386: ( Rogers, Menchov, Leipheimer, Basso, Armstrong )
flahute: ( Pellizotti, Bruseghin, Rogers, Leipheimer, Pinotti )
titan_90: ( Leipheimer, Menchov, Di Luca, Basso, Sastre )
R. Forster: ( Rogers, Leipheimer, Bruseghin, Basso, Menchov )
180mmcrank: ( Leipheimer, Menchov, Brusegin, Armstrong, Rogers )
jaylew: ( Leipheimer, Bruseghin, Menchov, Rogers, Cancellara )
K. Robbins: ( Leipheimer, Cancellara, Zabriskie, Menchov, Rogers )
Indurain: ( Leipheimer, Armstrong, Menchov, Rogers, Pinotti )
Bluebeard: ( Rogers, Leipheimer, Bruseghin, Menchov, Basso )
Ingsve: ( Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers, Bruseghin, Lövkvist )
marshan: ( Armstrong, Leipheimer, Rogers, Basso, Menchov )
aarnold517: ( Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers, Bruseghin, Basso )
ak-zaaf: ( cancellara, leipheimer, menchov, rogers, bruseghin )
Kazistuta: ( Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers, Armstrong, Basso )
Cosette: ( Bruseghin, Rogers, Menchov, Lövkvist, Leipheimer)
Bartoli: ( Leipheimer, Rogers, Menchov, Armstrong, Lovkvist )
El Imbatido: ( Leipheimer, Rogers, Lokvist, Menchov, Basso )
Martin: ( Armstrong, Leipheimer, Lokvist, Millar, Boasson Hagen )

Also adding Delicato to the mix since 2 of our competitors have been inactive lately.

Delicato: ( Menchov, Leipheimer, Basso, Rogers, Bruseghin, Wiggins )

---

Interesting to see so many people choose Armstrong as one of the top5 favorites for tomorrow. I know his form is looking up, but I just can't bring myself to picking him yet.

Contrary to most people, I'm hoping that Di Luca's form - and the nature of the course - will yield a decent placement. Who knows, I've been slumping lately

Thanks for the picks, and good luck to all!

 

[Kazistuta]

Well, Cancellara isn't starting today, so three guys must be feeling blue about picking him.

 

[180mmCrank]

Great to get some new blood into the competition (probably not the best choice of words but you get my drift)

Delicato: ( Menchov, Leipheimer, Basso, Rogers, Bruseghin, Wiggins )

But I am a little concerned that Delicato has a little bit of a performance enhancement over the rest of us - given that he seems to have 'packed in' an extra bonus rider!

 

[ingsve]

Well, Cancellara isn't starting today, so three guys must be feeling blue about picking him.

Well with the form he's been showing so far I would have been very surprised if he would have broken the top 10 anyway.

 

[ingsve]

Great to get some new blood into the competition (probably not the best choice of words but you get my drift)

Delicato: ( Menchov, Leipheimer, Basso, Rogers, Bruseghin, Wiggins )

But I am a little concerned that Delicato has a little bit of a performance enhancement over the rest of us - given that he seems to have 'packed in' an extra bonus rider!

Hmm, that's a 20% performance boost as well so it's some heavy stuff he's on...

 

[180mmCrank]

Hmm, that's a 20% performance boost as well so it's some heavy stuff he's on...

Maybe we should ask Big Boat to give us his assessmnet of the exact % boost by measuring power output and total blood volume yada yada yada