Pulling a Wiggins

[thehog]

I love that Bradbury story. Proves you've got to be in it to win it!

But seriously, I've been given a good kicking several times for suggesting that one of the reasons for Wiggo's success in 2012 was the sheer lack of opposition he faced.

The last three Tour winners were either losing to their own team mate, out injured or banned and the other likely GT contenders other than Froome and Nibs had done the Giro and self-selected themselves out of contention. And both Froome and Nibs would have needed an act of God in the mountains to offset their TT losses. Whenever I've made the suggestion, the usual suspects have piled in to assure me that the opposition was not weak and only looked so because of Sky's dominance.

So there is a certain inconsistency here to be suggesting now that Wiggo did indeed benefit from an unduly favourable set of circumstances.

And just on a point of logic, Wiggo's wins in 2012 were nothing like Bradbury's as they all followed a predictable script - hold ground in the hills and kick a*se in the ITTs. There's no logical equivalent to rivals falling by the wayside during competition.

The Bradbury story is legendary. Best part of it he readily admits his luck in winning.

I do understand what you're saying. And right you are Wiggins rode and won. But my take was Wiggins didn't so much win by crossing the line first. But by having a team put a straight jacket on the entire field from kilometre 1 to kilometre 220 in each stage.

He held yellow from the first mountain stage to the end. Basso comments indicative of this. It wasn't so much hat Wiggins was better than everyone else, it was that nobody could attack because a team was riding 450w for 4+ hours.

Now that maybe just tactics, yes. But knowing what we know about Rogers I'd say it wasn't just tactics alone.

 

[The Hitch]

The Bradbury story is legendary. Best part of it he readily admits his luck in winning.

I do understand what you're saying. And right you are Wiggins rode and won. But my take was Wiggins didn't so much win by crossing the line first. But by having a team put a straight jacket on the entire field from kilometre 1 to kilometre 220 in each stage.

He held yellow from the first mountain stage to the end. Basso comments indicative of this. It wasn't so much hat Wiggins was better than everyone else, it was that nobody could attack because a team was riding 450w for 4+ hours.

Now that maybe just tactics, yes. But knowing what we know about Rogers I'd say it wasn't just tactics alone.

Once again hog shows he knows nothing about cycling.

If other riders can't hold onto a train, but Wiggins can, that, in the real world, means he is better

 

[The Hitch]

I don't think it matters Wiggins wasn't the strongest, and you have the qualify that by saying strongest climber, because his TTing was far better than Froome's. He got leadership by dint of seniority, and Froome had to pay his dues by supporting him. It's not the first time it has happened in cycling and it won't be last.

Give the other times it has happened.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

If other riders can't hold onto a train, but Wiggins can, that, in the real world, means he is better

And even if they could also hold onto the train as well, there's the non-trivial issue of Wiggo's TT superiority.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

Give the other times it has happened.

Riis and Ullrich in the '96 Tour for definite.

Hinault and LeMond in the '85 Tour? Can't say for sure, but at least as contentious as Wiggo/Froome in 2012.

Possibly Delgado and Mig in 1990, though most likely neither was good enough to win that year. Mig supporting Delgado is often cited by Mig's supporters as a reason why he wasn't challenging for Tour honours earlier than he did to make it look less like he only got good in the EPO era, so I'm not sure that Mig was forced to play second fiddle to Delgado that year.

 

[SundayRider]

Once again hog shows he knows nothing about cycling.

If other riders can't hold onto a train, but Wiggins can, that, in the real world, means he is better

Lots of them held on to the train, just they couldn't attack it and gain any time. Before 2011 Wiggins had never been a man for long distance TTs.

 

[happychappy]

Wiggins also wins the "best donkey-racehorse-donkey transformation ever" award.

Do you know any better? I cant think of any.

A donkey won Vuelta a España last year. At least Wiggums has a few Olympic medals.

 

[The Hitch]

Lots of them held on to the train, just they couldn't attack it and gain any time. Before 2011 Wiggins had never been a man for long distance TTs.

Lots held onto the train?
Didn't see that on PDBF where only Evans did, and a about to crack Nibali was who lost a few seconds in the sprint, held on.

On Peyresoudes nobody held on. Nobody. They all cracked. every single one, and Froome and wiggins flew into the finish together.

 

[The Hitch]

But seriously, I've been given a good kicking several times for suggesting that one of the reasons for Wiggo's success in 2012 was the sheer lack of opposition he faced.

Its the same for absolutely every Grand Tour and every Tour de France. top favourites always pull out, crash out etc. No different in 2012.

 

[red_flanders]

Now that maybe just tactics, yes. But knowing what we know about Rogers I'd say it wasn't just tactics alone.

It's a tactic only available if you and you team can, in fact, push 450 watts for 4+ hours.

Not much of a tactic at all if the rest of the field can ride along comfortably. In that case you're just serving as a wind break for the others. See Ullrich, Telekom et. al. on the Alpe d'Huez stage in 2001.

I don't see how it's possible for team to have 3-4+ riders pushing that kind of wattage clean. Screw it, it's simply not possible. It's ludicrous.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

Its the same for absolutely every Grand Tour and every Tour de France. top favourites always pull out, crash out etc. No different in 2012.

True. But then someone always wins the Tour each year. The point about Wiggo facing weak opposition isn't to say that his opposition was unusually weak. It's just to help explain why Wiggo rather than someone else e.g. Contador won that year.

 

[thehog]

It's a tactic only available if you and you team can, in fact, push 450 watts for 4+ hours.

Not much of a tactic at all if the rest of the field can ride along comfortably. In that case you're just serving as a wind break for the others. See Ullrich, Telekom et. al. on the Alpe d'Huez stage in 2001.

I don't see how it's possible for team to have 3-4+ riders pushing that kind of wattage clean. Screw it, it's simply not possible. It's ludicrous.

Old Hog would have said that! And posted a picture or Froome pushing Henderson.

New hog sees light in everything.

Actually... 100% agree. It was ludicrous!

 

[pmcg76]

Riis and Ullrich in the '96 Tour for definite.

Hinault and LeMond in the '85 Tour? Can't say for sure, but at least as contentious as Wiggo/Froome in 2012.

Possibly Delgado and Mig in 1990, though most likely neither was good enough to win that year. Mig supporting Delgado is often cited by Mig's supporters as a reason why he wasn't challenging for Tour honours earlier than he did to make it look less like he only got good in the EPO era, so I'm not sure that Mig was forced to play second fiddle to Delgado that year.

1990 Indurain was given his chance as team leader for Banesto at the Vuelta and flunked it completely. He was riding for Delgado at the Tour and yes he did seem to be stronger than Delgado and would have been much higher than 10th if not for waiting on Delgado. Would he have won it? that is another very speculative question.

There was no real conflcit between Riis/Ullrich in 96. Jan was still a nobody and Bjarne was definite team leader. 97 might be more appropiate here as Riis went into the Tour as leader but Jan had a free role and proved to be stronger on the road.

I don't think there was the same aminosity between those guys as there is between Froome/Wiggins.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

There was no real conflcit between Riis/Ullrich in 96. Jan was still a nobody and Bjarne was definite team leader. 97 might be more appropiate here as Riis went into the Tour as leader but Jan had a free role and proved to be stronger on the road.

I don't think there was the same aminosity between those guys as there is between Froome/Wiggins.

I wasn't thinking of conflict per se. Just a physically superior rider being reined in so another rider could win. Rumours abounded of Ully being told to slow down in the final ITT in '96 to give Riis some breathing space. By all accounts, Ully was happy with this and indeed had to be told to stop waiting for Riis in '97 when it was clear to the Telekom hierarchy that Riis had no chance of winning.

 

[kingjr]

I wasn't thinking of conflict per se. Just a physically superior rider being reined in so another rider could win. Rumours abounded of Ully being told to slow down in the final ITT in '96 to give Riis some breathing space. By all accounts, Ully was happy with this and indeed had to be told to stop waiting for Riis in '97 when it was clear to the Telekom hierarchy that Riis had no chance of winning.

It was Riis himself who let him off the leash prior to the climb up to Arcalis.

 

[roundabout]

I wasn't thinking of conflict per se. Just a physically superior rider being reined in so another rider could win. Rumours abounded of Ully being told to slow down in the final ITT in '96 to give Riis some breathing space. By all accounts, Ully was happy with this and indeed had to be told to stop waiting for Riis in '97 when it was clear to the Telekom hierarchy that Riis had no chance of winning.

It was still 1.40 something between them in the end. A lot of time. Doubt Ullrich could have gone that much faster as Riis was more than a decent TT rider at the time.

 

[TailWindHome]

On Peyresoudes nobody held on. Nobody. They all cracked. every single one, and Froome and wiggins flew into the finish together.

Which stage was that?


ETA - 17

I think I may have woke up to see the finish of that one

 

[Parrulo]

Thank god Sir Bradley was able to hang on to the train as all the other riders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EIEp_y_cNZ8#t=1720

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

It was still 1.40 something between them in the end. A lot of time. Doubt Ullrich could have gone that much faster as Riis was more than a decent TT rider at the time.

The final ITT was just a "for example" of Ully's superiority that year. Although one can never prove it, I'm sure he'd have been able to match Riis on the stages where Riis took time, but obviously he followed standard team tactics and didn't counter-attack.

 

[SundayRider]

Thank god Sir Bradley was able to hang on to the train as all the other riders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EIEp_y_cNZ8#t=1720

Watching that again it is unbelievable how strong CF was he was pretty much soft peddling yet still dropping Wiggins. If he had attacked properly he could have put minutes into him just like he did to Contador last year.

 

[BYOP88]

Thank god Sir Bradley was able to hang on to the train as all the other riders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EIEp_y_cNZ8#t=1720

Takes me back to the good old days, when it was Armstrong and Heras waving goodbye to Beloki, Jan and the rest of the gang as the zoomed off into the distance.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

Watching that again it is unbelievable how strong CF was he was pretty much soft peddling yet still dropping Wiggins. If he had attacked properly he could have put minutes into him just like he did to Contador last year.

I think this depends on whether by that stage of the 2012 race Froome was "Ventoux Froome" or "Alpe D'Huez/Semnoz Froome". On both the last two MTFs last year, Froome quickly gapped his rivals but was easily reeled in and eventually conceded time. Ditto the stage in Vuelta 2011 when it looked for all the world like he'd got a decisive gap on Cobo only to be reeled in. Gapping Wiggo on a climb wouldn't be that hard, but maintaining the gap might be a challenge once the turbo diesel was fully fired up.

I think there's an element of the trait where footballers, cricketers etc. are suddenly a lot worse after they make their international debut than before, as when the chips are down, they can't produce the performance that others had attributed to them based on incomplete data.

That said, it would have been good to see them go mano-a-mano on the decisive climbs!

 

[EnacheV]

Thank god Sir Bradley was able to hang on to the train as all the other riders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EIEp_y_cNZ8#t=1720

Unzue was right when saying that Froome would have had 2 Tdf's and maybe 1 Vuelta with Movistar

 

[roundabout]

The final ITT was just a "for example" of Ully's superiority that year. Although one can never prove it, I'm sure he'd have been able to match Riis on the stages where Riis took time, but obviously he followed standard team tactics and didn't counter-attack.

It's been nearly 20 years so the details might be a bit hazy, but I don't really share your recollection.

 

[DirtyWorks]

On both the last two MTFs last year, Froome quickly gapped his rivals but was easily reeled in and eventually conceded time.

I was watching him strategically concede *some* time. Not "Oh No! Froome is at his limit and the diesels are running him down with 2K to go!!"

The only riders beating him were non-GC threatening climbing specialists.

Strangely, he's unable to repeat this performance for the rest of 2013.