Quintana??

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Quintana is a huge natural talent, shown by his Junior and especially U23 results (unlike some others ) but to do what he's done - there's some red flags raised for sure.

2009

40th Circuito Montanes

41st Giro Valle d'Aosta

2010

24th Giro delle Regioni

2011

21st Avenir

Apart from one Avenir that all the people remember there were literally zero performances of note in major U23 races in Europe

Aside from several good stage placings in those races, he took part in european pro races in those days, having results that shocked a hell of lot of people. KOM in Catalunya (yes, the WT race). 7th in the Subida Urkiola at age 19 against a full pro field. Nieve was 25 and finished a minute behind.

IMO the red flag on his is above all else the fact that he goes to the ends of the earth to 'train' before major races, either only doing 1 warmup race or sometimes none at all. That's textbook control avoiding.

Even then, when Quintana went to the "ends of the earth" he was going back home to his family and fiancee (now wife) and training at altitude.

Also, that 2011 L'Avenir was ridden in support of some hack called Esteban Chaves (who won) after crashing on the 2nd stage.

 

[Billie]

ANy cyclicst whose doesn't live with his family in Châtenay-Malabry is clearly avoiding controls - the CLinic

 

[gillan1969]

Re: Nairo Quintana Questions

wee columbian goes fast up hills...not really news
wee columbian guy goes fast up hills and in flat TTs - news - come back then

 

[hrotha]

Re:

ANy cyclicst whose doesn't live with his family in Châtenay-Malabry is clearly avoiding controls - the CLinic

One guy: Quintana travels to Colombia to avoid controls.
Literally everyone else who has weighed on this subject: He's kinda from there.
Billie: THE CLINIC!!!11

 

[jyl]

Sometimes people say Quintana "gets stronger" during a three week tour. Does that appear to literally be the case, or is he simply not getting weaker as much as others? I remember reading somewhere that most riders should get 1-2% weaker for each week of the Tour.

Has anyone analyzed Quintana's performances in the grand tours he's ridden (only three, as far as I know) to see he gets stronger, weaker, or stays the same? For that matter, has anyone analyzed other GC contenders to see this?

I tried to compare stage 10 (Pierre St Martin) and stage 20 (Alpe d'Huez) of the 2015 Tour. These are somewhat similar climbs, Pierre St. Martin 15.3 km at 7.1% vs Alpe d'Huez 13.8 km at 8.1%, both about 40 minutes. But PSM was early in the second week, after a rest day, with a pretty flat stage before the finishing climb. AD was at the end of the third week, after three tough mountain stages, and was preceded on the stage by another HC climb (Croix de Fer).

When I look at Quintana's performance, he indeed seemed "stronger" on AD than he had on PSM 10 racing days earlier. I estimate PSM was about 342 watt average and 5.99 w/kg for Quintana (and about 405 watt average and 6.04 w/kg for Froome). I estimate AD was about 343 watt average and 6.05 w/kg for Quintana (and about 394 watt average and 5.87 w/kg for Froome). That suggests Quintana was about 1% "stronger" on AD than on PSM (while Froome was about 3% "weaker" on AD than on PSM).

We supposedly know why Froome was getting weaker (sick). But why was Quintana either not getting weaker, or even getting stronger? Did he just have a very off day on PSM? In his other GT races, has Quintana delivered higher power (comparing similar duration efforts) later in the race?

(For Quintana I used 57 kg and 167 cm, for Froome I used 67 kg and 185 cm. I assumed no wind on either climb, and about 50% drafting on each climb, except Froome on AD was 90% drafting. I didn't check the temperatures and I assumed about 7.3 kg of bike, clothes, etc.)

 

[vedrafjord]

Here's something to start you off. You should try and control for the length of the climbs too.

 

[sniper]

Valverde is also strong in the third week.
Jesus Hoyos is still there checking for saddle sores.
Valverde, Unzue and Hoyos know how to be strong in the third week.

I saw popped doper Rory Sutherland is there as well (ex rabo, saxo, and is or at least was until recently coached by ex-ONCE doc San Millan).
Just saying they have al the know how, and a nice mixture of old and experienced vs. young and hungry.
Also seeing caretaker El Guaje on the payroll who was there at Caisse d'Epargne with Valverde. It's a small world. All these dark age facilitators, cyclists, managers, docs, caretakers, still there, but now clean of course.
If you value continuity, Movistar puts a smile on your face.

edit: here' Nairo's former coach Saldarriago talking the Garmin/Sky antidoping talk, about internal testing, zero tolerance, new generation, etc. Search it for "dopaje", then use googletranslate.
http://www.biciciclismo.com/es/luis-fernando-saldarriaga-la-nueva-energia-del-ciclismo-colombiano-02-08-2013
Maybe someone with a better inside view into the Colombian scene can tell if this Saldarriago guy is legit?

 

[jyl]

Re:

Here's something to start you off. You should try and control for the length of the climbs too.

Thank you!

This is a silly/newbie question, but is there a good aggregated source for the distance/elevation gain over which these climbs are timed? Short of watching video of the stage and noting the km traveled and referring to a stage profile, how does everyone determine this, and how do we know that everyone's estimates are using the same parameters? I'm particularly thinking of the less famous climbs.

Also, is there a rule of thumb/physiological formula for how the sustainable effort (FTP?) typically relates to duration of effort?

I'm new to this topic, clearly.

 

[vedrafjord]

Those tables are from the twitter account of a Finnish person who does all the timing themselves from videos https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/

The original figures are posted on a Finnish-language forum http://www.fillarifoorumi.fi/forum/showthread.php?38129-Ammattilaispy%F6r%E4ilij%F6iden-nousutietoja-(aika-km-h-VAM-W-W-kg-etc-)/

As for your last question, that is the subject of much debate. One person who's done a lot of work is Mike Puchowicz (veloclinic) - there's a lot of good stuff like http://veloclinic.com/veloclinic-plot-w-cp-subtraction-plot/ on his site. Don't pay attention to the occasionally jokey tone.

In general all these models are imperfect by definition, but that doesn't mean that useful conclusions can't often be made. Good luck!

 

[Jakub]

I am currently amazed by Quintanas ITT. Is it possible at all to ride such good TTs with his 1m40cm or how tall he is?

 

[cnc-it]

To me Quintana shows a bad pattern in 3 week races..in the last TDF he faded gradually then came back like 10 men after the rest day..not the first time he's done this in a major Tour. I'm thinking there must be some new EPO on the market..Ac's talking about doing 2 more years

 

[IndianCyclist]

Quintana winning the TT in Route du Sud today. Yesterday he was in the breakaway since the beginning so he should be tired. The TT was short 15 min whereas Quintana is known for long range effort. A 53 kg rider should lose time to roulers like Chavanel. He was at home training. How would he train for a aerodynamic TT position without windtunnel or even trained observers. I am reminded of Heras's 2 place in the TT in 2005 Vuelta.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Quintana winning the TT in Route du Sud today. Yesterday he was in the breakaway since the beginning so he should be tired. The TT was short 15 min whereas Quintana is known for long range effort. A 53 kg rider should lose time to roulers like Chavanel. He was at home training. How would he train for a aerodynamic TT position without windtunnel or even trained observers. I am reminded of Heras's 2 place in the TT in 2005 Vuelta.

"When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour." ~Christophe Bassons~

 

[the delgados]

Quintana for the World Championship TT win. You heard it here first.
I'd love to see the little guy wearing the rainbow stripes during a GT time trial.
After all, he's spent a lot of time in the echo chamber, er, wind tunnel.

 

[AlexNYC]

If people are going to accuse someone of cheating, the least they could do is do their homework. This is the kind of ITT course where Quintana has always done well for a climber. Against this field, a win is not a huge deal.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Of course Quintana is doping, but I don't think this win was very strange

 

[Benotti69]

TT bikes look designed for motordoping.......might explain climbers winning TTs.

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Quintana winning the TT in Route du Sud today. Yesterday he was in the breakaway since the beginning so he should be tired. The TT was short 15 min whereas Quintana is known for long range effort. A 53 kg rider should lose time to roulers like Chavanel. He was at home training. How would he train for a aerodynamic TT position without windtunnel or even trained observers. I am reminded of Heras's 2 place in the TT in 2005 Vuelta.

According to Wikipedia Quintana weighs 58kg - not 53? But even at 58kg his TT perforrmance was very impressive and suggests he is coming into top form at just the right time. But I don't think Quintana is any more doped up than the other GC contenders.

 

[Zypherov]

Quite a lot of accusations here with no evidence. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that against forum rules.

 

[noddy69]

Re:

Quite a lot of accusations here with no evidence. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that against forum rules.

I think its just peoples opinions, which is acceptable

Proof of point, opinions, and common knowledge: you can't just say "we know Bobby the Bod is doping". You have to provide some proof using linked sources or verifiable material. Or, you can just state "in my opinion"

The bassons quote does kind of sum up the TT ing ability shambles. Quintana should not be able to compete unless its a mountain TT...imo.

 

[Benotti69]

Re:

Quite a lot of accusations here with no evidence. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that against forum rules.

His performance can be taken as evidence. This is not a court of law.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Quite a lot of accusations here with no evidence. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that against forum rules.

Lots of evidence, really. Proof is what's lacking.

So, no, this is pretty much within the rules. It's not like people are calling him a doper based on his skin colour or something like that.

 

[Zypherov]

Re:

Of course Quintana is doping, but I don't think this win was very strange

This is what I am referring to. Sounds more like a statement of fact rather than an opinion.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Quite a lot of accusations here with no evidence. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that against forum rules.

Lots of evidence, really. Proof is what's lacking.

So, no, this is pretty much within the rules. It's not like people are calling him a doper based on his skin colour or something like that.

Well this was just bumped recently:

"Proof of point, opinions, and common knowledge: you can't just say "we know Bobby the Bod is doping". You have to provide some proof using linked sources or verifiable material. Or, you can just state "in my opinion". If, on the other hand, it is in the realm of "common knowledge", then it is acceptable to make an unverified statement. Be careful - common knowledge would apply, for instance, at the time of this posting, to Lance Armstrong. But allegations of current doping, and current riders, would not be "common knowledge" at this point. To be common knowledge, the "fact" has to have been published, widely read, and widely agreed with. This point is particularly applicable in The Clinic."

 

[SeriousSam]

Quintana is the most likely to be the least dirty of the Big 3