Tour de France Stage 7: Irun - Col d'Erozate 151.8km
The first proper mountain test of the Tour de France kicks off a triptych of Pyrennean stages. This is the hardest MTF of the whole tour, and the three stages follow a formula sort of similar to the Giro 2011. A very hard MTF guaranteed to create gaps preceding an incredibly hard queen stage, so that even if riders are afraid of the upcoming day, action on the previous stage will still happen as the mountain forces it. Evene by riding at your own pace on this climb, even if it isn't as hard as the Zoncolan or Angliru, will still cause gaps. After probably the queen stage of the whole tour, there is one of those short mountain stages that has become popular recently.
For this stage, it begins in Irun in Spain and explores the Western Pyrenees, which are often left untouched by Tour organisers. Usually the Pyreenean action focus on anything further east than PSM - anything the other side is unthinkable uncharted territory. The beginning is not mountainous but just fairly rolling, with some hard enough hills, before entering France over the Col de Ispeguy, and through Saint-Jean-Pied-de-Port for the intermediate sprint. Then comes the first HC climb of the enitre race. This categorisation is slightly generous perhaps, but hopefully the added points available will cause some riders to attack (I'm thinking the riders who are aiming for at best a top 10 or the polka dots). The Col d'Arnosteguy through this side is very hard. On a typically narrow road over green pastures, the first 7km average 11.5%. After that it quite considerably levels out, but it should definitely be enough to shake up the group.
Views
The descent is fairly narrow, but is not that technical and not steep, averaging at 6%, only maxing out at about 10%, so should be fine for the riders. The final climb of the day comes immediately afterwards. The climb is part of the Col Bagargui until the Col d'Asqueta, where the riders turn right instead of going straight on. After that it is only a kilometre or so of climbing. The Bagargui was last used in 2003, quite eraly on in the stage. But the Bagargui is considerably easier than this, as this makes up only the first half on it - the second is more or less flat. The final climb, therefore, is 10.3km at 9.4%. Granted, it is no Ovaro, but it would be one of the hardest Tour de France MTFs. At the top of the climb, there is a grass/gravel area which isn't large, but hopefully the enormous (flat) expanse to the left of the finish line will be up for use. Besides, I am sure if the Vuelta can finish at Cumbre del Sol, the Tour can finish here. Gaps could be substantial as it is the first MTF of the Tour, and hard.
Profile of final climb
Stage 8: Arette - Col d'Aspin 226.8km
The queen stage of the Tour. It's properly hard. At first it was easier, but then thinking about how the Tour was being raced, I decided to punish the riders. Seven categorised climbs, and 7000m of climbing (according to flamme rouge). It's the most unrealistic stage of the Tour, and with good reason. But fantasy tours don't have to be oppressively realistic. They can be exactly that, fantasy.
The riders overnight will stay in Oloron-Sainte-Marie, where there is more room and more hotels, but the stage start proper is in Arette, as otherwise the stage would have gone over 250km. Immediately the riders climb, over the Col de Labays, which is effectively the hard bit of the Pierre Saint Martin. Then a sprint, and then Marie-Blanque. Marie Blanque has a really hard second half, but at this point it is still only for softening up the legs and frustrating sprinters. Col d'Aubisque is next, an HC worthy climb used last year in the Vuelta a Espana as a MTF, where Froome and Quintana played their own little game of standstill, attack, standstill, attack, allowing Chaves to get a half a minute on them by riding his own tempo. Once again, this will be used to tire out riders rather than any exciting moves. After a descent, which shouldn't be too bad, comes the Col de Spandelles, which is what Spandeau Ballet were named after. Possibly. It is another tough climb, doggedly staying around the 8% mark for the more or less the enitrety of its 10km. It is very similar to Labays in terms of difficultly.
Tourmalet
Then comes the crunch time of the stage. To start, the Col de Trabaou (the opening section of Luz Ardiden), around 10km at 7%, which is a nice test before the highest climb of the whole tour, the Tourmalet. Now, I know it is overused. And I know that hinging the success of such a stage on such a climb is risky to say the least. And I know that it is from the easier side. But I hope that with 5000 metres of climbing already in the legs, after a hard MTF, but still in the first week, riders will be sufficiently tired for there to be enormous gaps but not so tired that they don't attack. And that this climb, not ridiculously steep but fairly so, is perfect for them to do so. So anyway, if they do attack, they have a fairly straighforward, but steep, descent, and the Col d'Aspin to go.
The final climb is a sort of homage to the mighty Ricco. The last Tour to begin in Brittany was 2008, and 2008 was the year Ricco climbed up Aspin like it was a descent. It is basically, from this side, 7km of irregular false flat ranging from 0 to 6%, before 5km at 7.8%. You really have to be an idiot to wait for this to attack, if you are a climber like Bardet and have a pretty huge TT coming up soon. It's a bit like the Sestriere (Finestre side) climb just slightly steeper. So hopefully it will be race as such. Riders should be soloing to the line with pretty large gaps, as the climb is hard enough to put in a final dig 2km from the line and gain good times considering how tired everyone will be if it is raced as it should be. The time limit will be extended as it is so hard.
Views from Aspin
Stage 9: Bagneres de Luchon - Oust 115.6km
To follow such a hard stage, there is a very short, sharp stage to Oust, still with four categorised climbs. It should be a bit like the Foix stage this year, just with the top GC guys attacking from further out as the final climb is not the hardest one. People will be tired from yesterday, and hopefully that will include domestiques from the likes of sky, so they won't be able to control the race. There is immediately a climb, which allows some GC contenders to attack from the gun if they so wish, like Contador, who someone who wants time before the TT after the rest day tomorrow.
The first climb is Col du Portillon, which actually means we re-enter Spain. The riders go up the harder side, and the descent the other side is fairly technical, so gaps could be made there. There is about 20km of very slight descent in the valley after the climb, which unfortunately could neutralise the action on the climb depending on the size of the group. However, the next two climbs are a great opportunity to try again. First the Col de Mente, which is pretty hard. Almost 10km at almost 9%, it should almost be enough, and hopefully will be enough, to once again cause small splits. After a descent comes the Col de Portet-d'Aspet, 5k at over 9%. This climb is a good place to attack, especially if you've put your team, or what is left of it, on pace making duties on Mente.
Mente
It is 20km to the next climb, but it is all power descent and a gap between small groups should really hold. The final climb is Col de la Core, or Port de la Core, which is probably the easiest climb of the day at 15.1 km and 5.8%, but peaks out at over 9% and has long sections at 7%. It is a bit of a grinder, but with the last two days in the legs and hopefully an intense day now, should cause gaps. Because of the climb, which shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts, hopefully the attacks should come on Portet-d'Aspet, or even Mente. After the climb is a descent which is of medium difficulty, albeit harder than, say, the Galibier or Peguere descents. 3km of flat (gentle downhill) precedes the finish line, where small groups will hopefully contest the finish. And that is the end of the first week. I hope to complete it all today, but that is optimistic I admit.
Scenery at Col de la Core


The first proper mountain test of the Tour de France kicks off a triptych of Pyrennean stages. This is the hardest MTF of the whole tour, and the three stages follow a formula sort of similar to the Giro 2011. A very hard MTF guaranteed to create gaps preceding an incredibly hard queen stage, so that even if riders are afraid of the upcoming day, action on the previous stage will still happen as the mountain forces it. Evene by riding at your own pace on this climb, even if it isn't as hard as the Zoncolan or Angliru, will still cause gaps. After probably the queen stage of the whole tour, there is one of those short mountain stages that has become popular recently.
For this stage, it begins in Irun in Spain and explores the Western Pyrenees, which are often left untouched by Tour organisers. Usually the Pyreenean action focus on anything further east than PSM - anything the other side is unthinkable uncharted territory. The beginning is not mountainous but just fairly rolling, with some hard enough hills, before entering France over the Col de Ispeguy, and through Saint-Jean-Pied-de-Port for the intermediate sprint. Then comes the first HC climb of the enitre race. This categorisation is slightly generous perhaps, but hopefully the added points available will cause some riders to attack (I'm thinking the riders who are aiming for at best a top 10 or the polka dots). The Col d'Arnosteguy through this side is very hard. On a typically narrow road over green pastures, the first 7km average 11.5%. After that it quite considerably levels out, but it should definitely be enough to shake up the group.

Views
The descent is fairly narrow, but is not that technical and not steep, averaging at 6%, only maxing out at about 10%, so should be fine for the riders. The final climb of the day comes immediately afterwards. The climb is part of the Col Bagargui until the Col d'Asqueta, where the riders turn right instead of going straight on. After that it is only a kilometre or so of climbing. The Bagargui was last used in 2003, quite eraly on in the stage. But the Bagargui is considerably easier than this, as this makes up only the first half on it - the second is more or less flat. The final climb, therefore, is 10.3km at 9.4%. Granted, it is no Ovaro, but it would be one of the hardest Tour de France MTFs. At the top of the climb, there is a grass/gravel area which isn't large, but hopefully the enormous (flat) expanse to the left of the finish line will be up for use. Besides, I am sure if the Vuelta can finish at Cumbre del Sol, the Tour can finish here. Gaps could be substantial as it is the first MTF of the Tour, and hard.

Profile of final climb
Stage 8: Arette - Col d'Aspin 226.8km


The queen stage of the Tour. It's properly hard. At first it was easier, but then thinking about how the Tour was being raced, I decided to punish the riders. Seven categorised climbs, and 7000m of climbing (according to flamme rouge). It's the most unrealistic stage of the Tour, and with good reason. But fantasy tours don't have to be oppressively realistic. They can be exactly that, fantasy.
The riders overnight will stay in Oloron-Sainte-Marie, where there is more room and more hotels, but the stage start proper is in Arette, as otherwise the stage would have gone over 250km. Immediately the riders climb, over the Col de Labays, which is effectively the hard bit of the Pierre Saint Martin. Then a sprint, and then Marie-Blanque. Marie Blanque has a really hard second half, but at this point it is still only for softening up the legs and frustrating sprinters. Col d'Aubisque is next, an HC worthy climb used last year in the Vuelta a Espana as a MTF, where Froome and Quintana played their own little game of standstill, attack, standstill, attack, allowing Chaves to get a half a minute on them by riding his own tempo. Once again, this will be used to tire out riders rather than any exciting moves. After a descent, which shouldn't be too bad, comes the Col de Spandelles, which is what Spandeau Ballet were named after. Possibly. It is another tough climb, doggedly staying around the 8% mark for the more or less the enitrety of its 10km. It is very similar to Labays in terms of difficultly.

Tourmalet
Then comes the crunch time of the stage. To start, the Col de Trabaou (the opening section of Luz Ardiden), around 10km at 7%, which is a nice test before the highest climb of the whole tour, the Tourmalet. Now, I know it is overused. And I know that hinging the success of such a stage on such a climb is risky to say the least. And I know that it is from the easier side. But I hope that with 5000 metres of climbing already in the legs, after a hard MTF, but still in the first week, riders will be sufficiently tired for there to be enormous gaps but not so tired that they don't attack. And that this climb, not ridiculously steep but fairly so, is perfect for them to do so. So anyway, if they do attack, they have a fairly straighforward, but steep, descent, and the Col d'Aspin to go.
The final climb is a sort of homage to the mighty Ricco. The last Tour to begin in Brittany was 2008, and 2008 was the year Ricco climbed up Aspin like it was a descent. It is basically, from this side, 7km of irregular false flat ranging from 0 to 6%, before 5km at 7.8%. You really have to be an idiot to wait for this to attack, if you are a climber like Bardet and have a pretty huge TT coming up soon. It's a bit like the Sestriere (Finestre side) climb just slightly steeper. So hopefully it will be race as such. Riders should be soloing to the line with pretty large gaps, as the climb is hard enough to put in a final dig 2km from the line and gain good times considering how tired everyone will be if it is raced as it should be. The time limit will be extended as it is so hard.

Views from Aspin
Stage 9: Bagneres de Luchon - Oust 115.6km


To follow such a hard stage, there is a very short, sharp stage to Oust, still with four categorised climbs. It should be a bit like the Foix stage this year, just with the top GC guys attacking from further out as the final climb is not the hardest one. People will be tired from yesterday, and hopefully that will include domestiques from the likes of sky, so they won't be able to control the race. There is immediately a climb, which allows some GC contenders to attack from the gun if they so wish, like Contador, who someone who wants time before the TT after the rest day tomorrow.
The first climb is Col du Portillon, which actually means we re-enter Spain. The riders go up the harder side, and the descent the other side is fairly technical, so gaps could be made there. There is about 20km of very slight descent in the valley after the climb, which unfortunately could neutralise the action on the climb depending on the size of the group. However, the next two climbs are a great opportunity to try again. First the Col de Mente, which is pretty hard. Almost 10km at almost 9%, it should almost be enough, and hopefully will be enough, to once again cause small splits. After a descent comes the Col de Portet-d'Aspet, 5k at over 9%. This climb is a good place to attack, especially if you've put your team, or what is left of it, on pace making duties on Mente.

Mente
It is 20km to the next climb, but it is all power descent and a gap between small groups should really hold. The final climb is Col de la Core, or Port de la Core, which is probably the easiest climb of the day at 15.1 km and 5.8%, but peaks out at over 9% and has long sections at 7%. It is a bit of a grinder, but with the last two days in the legs and hopefully an intense day now, should cause gaps. Because of the climb, which shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts, hopefully the attacks should come on Portet-d'Aspet, or even Mente. After the climb is a descent which is of medium difficulty, albeit harder than, say, the Galibier or Peguere descents. 3km of flat (gentle downhill) precedes the finish line, where small groups will hopefully contest the finish. And that is the end of the first week. I hope to complete it all today, but that is optimistic I admit.

Scenery at Col de la Core