Race thread: Olympics 2020/21 Tokyo, Men's Road Race, 234k

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not only when injured, he often fades in this long races

If the racing schedule is brutal beforehand then it can happen. This time this is not the case. Unless they made any special agreement i feel that we will likely see both Slovenians going over the Mikuni together. Unless i guess Pogačar still feels the Tour in his legs a bit too much. In my opinion Team Slovenia is the team to beat in RR. Basically a dream team.

As for the basketball dream team. Here Team Slovenia will still likely at least try.
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Would like to see Nibali add a gold to his trophy cabinet as I feel sorry for how he lost in Rio.
But my #1 cry into my Saturday morning breakfast choice would be Nairoman. What a least expected day that would be if he actually managed to have one of his good days on the right day
If it were a climb then descent to the finish, sure. However, with all this rolling terrain how can you see him winning?
Rogla has problems with long races;
I honestly dont see how Wout can win this. He will lose time against top climbers on Mikuni, I think we all agree on this; who will work with him to get back to the front group, I just dont see it
He does? I mean, he won LBL (250+ km) and Emilia (200+ km) and was in the elite group in Worlds last year. You don't do that if you're bad in long races.

I see your point re: WVA, but I'm sure everyone who's not represented in a potential front group after Mikuni will help. Besides, it's likely that the front group will have issues working together as well.
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I do not see remco winning. Only way would be to drop everyone and TT to the finish while everyone looks at each other.

I do not see him dropping some of the riders in this field.

best scenario is that he is able to hang with the best on Mikuni. Then sit on with WvA chasing as pretext. Then he may be freshest to try something on the last small hill. Or if WvA is back, to force others to work so that WvA can sprint for the win.

I do hope he plays the team game. He can be as selfish as he wants in the TT. ;)
Tomorrow it will be the race of attrition. TBH I don't see a decisive break forming on Fuji with still 100 km to go (unless this break is big and consists most of the contenders). Mikuni will be the decider but some strong riders will attack earlier (most likely on hilly terrain before, some will try on Fuji but it will be difficult to keep ahead for so long).