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Race Thread

Page 47 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
If they find a way, it will be a one shot trick. Something they can't try out or he'll know how to neutralize it. Not much they can do.
Van Aert is probably the ace up their sleeve, the unpredictable factor, but he has to start on the 3rd or 4th row.
Yeah, a team on dirt doesn't make such a difference as on the road.
Keeping Van der Poel under pressure would mean there are riders able to match him. Something that hasn't been seen for a while.
 
I’ve said this this many times right before the Worlds; Mathieu looks unbeatable, imperious. However, like I’ve stated before, come the worlds, he always seems to labour a lot more than the final rehearsal, which was today.

I’m not saying he isn’t the overwhelming favorite, cause he obviously is, but the worlds brings extra stress for the favorite and extra motivation for the challengers. I hope for an all-out war. We’ll see.
 
Betsema not selected for the WCC?
No she won't be, as the national coach want's to keep peace within the team and not have her selection overshadow the week leading up. I think there would be protest from some of the other dutch riders who raced the whole season and are now ranked ahead of her (dropped to 284th with 30pts) after her results were removed if she was selected
 
Never write off WvA for the worlds.... he'll make one of those magic tyre choices again.
Not unless he has some special tyres that launch him to the front of the bunch and across the first 3 starting rows in front of him. The Belgians may try to block van de Poel's path as much as possible, but the Dutch that have to start behind the Belgians, will certainly do their best to delay van Aert as much as possible as well.
 
No she won't be, as the national coach want's to keep peace within the team and not have her selection overshadow the week leading up. I think there would be protest from some of the other dutch riders who raced the whole season and are now ranked ahead of her (dropped to 284th with 30pts) after her results were removed if she was selected
Makes sense. The fact that they have the 3 overwhelming favorites for victory made that a relatively easy decision.
Not unless he has some special tyres that launch him to the front of the bunch and across the first 3 starting rows in front of him. The Belgians may try to block van de Poel's path as much as possible, but the Dutch that have to start behind the Belgians, will certainly do their best to delay van Aert as much as possible as well.
I thought he had a 3rd row start? Is it 4th? For me, that's a big difference. 3rd is manageable, 4th is a disaster.

In any case, nothing the Belgians do is likely to make any difference. Barring an untimely mechanical, on that course, 95% chance Mathieu wins.
 
Makes sense. The fact that they have the 3 overwhelming favorites for victory made that a relatively easy decision.

I thought he had a 3rd row start? Is it 4th? For me, that's a big difference. 3rd is manageable, 4th is a disaster.
It was 3rd or 4th last week. The results of this weekend could push him back to 4th. I don't know whether he scored enough points to start from the third row, but he only finished 9th yesterday.
 
Any news from Dubendorf on the course conditions? Quick & dry or wet & muddy? Hope for an epic all out battle where MVDP at least is being challenged by Iserbyt/Aerts and WvA.
The forecast for the weekend and the next few days is either rain or showers. It looks surprisingly warm with a max temp of between 10 and 11 celcius. If the rain (and a bit of snow tommorrow) are correct it could be quite muddy and a bit of a slog as a quick google of the geology of switzeland says that area is quite clayish. High minimum temps (2-4) so it won't freeze overnight.

Course reminds me somewhat of Ruddevorde crossed with Silvelle, which means it might be alot of running, certainly by the end of the weekend for the elite mens race. If Aerts and Isebyt et al race it well, it may not allow VDP to get into a rhythm (e.g Ronse this year, WK @ Valkenberg, Spa superprestige a couple of years ago) it may hamper him. Don't know though as he has improved his running this year from previously, and it isn't hilly like the three mentioned above, so will be interesting.

I'm personally looking forward to the U23 races as they seem the most open. The Elites seem to be VDP verses the belgians and a battle of Alvarado vs Worst vs Brand and maybe Cant. The Junior men look the most certain with Nys the favourite then a battle between the other belgians, the swiss Dario Lillo and maybe some dutch. THe junior women might be Van Anrooij vs Pieterse and then Gunsalus vs Munro, with some French, Czechs and Brits thrown into the top ten as well. (Interestingly the highest ranked belgian female junior is nearly 30th ranked in the world (of the u19s)).

The U23 men looks really wide open with Kuhn, Mein, Vandeputte and Kamp all winning rounds of the world cup. Mason and Tulett seem to have come on leaps and bounds in the last few races. Benoist, Rouiller and Vandenbosch have been up there as well, and others who have performed strongly this year I believe are still in with a chance , like euro champ Crispin, Kielich, Turner, Hecht and Van Dijke.
Similarly the U23 women is pretty wide as well. Van der Heijden is obviously defending champ. Kay, Bakker, Norbert Riberolle from Experza have also featured this season, along with Vas, and Van Alphen. Other riders who havn't been so present are Harnden (who excels in muddy conditions) Clouse (u23 us champ) and West. I think it was also clear this season the strength in depth the u23s have as well as the world champs last year where pretty much 10+ riders could have won going into those steep banks for the last time last year.
 
On a hilly course - what ironically used to be called a "Swiss" course - MVDP en Alvarado would have been close to unbeatable. Now, on this flast course, I'm not so sure. After thirty-three consecutive wins MVDP remains the obvious favourite, but the Belgians can make it tough by ambushing him, slowing down in front of him, wheelsucking etc. Alvarado can be beaten in the sprint by Worst or Brand. Even defending champion Kant with an improving shape isn't without a chance.

MEN:
****Van der Poel
***Sweeck, Aerts
**Van Aert, Iserbyt, Vanthourenhout
*Merlier, Van der Haar, Chainel, Pidcock

WOMEN:
***Alvarado, Worst
**Brand, Kant
*Compton, Nash, Kastelijn

MEN U23:
**Kuhn, Kamp, Benoist
*Mein, Mason, Vandeputte, Vandebosch

WOMEN U23:
**Van der Heijden
*Norbert Riberolle, Bakker, Blanka Vas

MEN JUNIOR:
**Nys
*Lillo, Belmans

WOMEN JUNIOR:
**Van Anrooij, Pieterse
* De Wilde, Flynn, Couzens
 
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On a hilly course - what ironically used to be called a "Swiss" course - MVDP en Alvarado would have been close to unbeatable. Now, on this flast course, I'm not so sure. After thirty-three consecutive wins MVDP remains the obvious favourite, but the Belgians can make it tough by ambushing him, slowing down in front of him, wheelsucking etc. Alvarado can be beaten in the sprint by Worst or Brand. Even defending champion Kant with an improving shape isn't without a chance.

MEN:
****Van der Poel
***Sweeck, Aerts
**Van Aert, Iserbyt, Vanthourenhout
*Merlier, Van der Haar, Chainel, Pidcock

WOMEN:
***Alvarado, Worst
**Brand, Kant
*Compton, Nash, Kastelijn

MEN U23:
**Mein, Kuhn
*Vandebosch, Vandeputte

WOMEN U23:
**Van der Heijden
*Norbert Riberolle, Bakker, Blanka Vas

MEN JUNIOR:
**Nys
*Lillo, Belmans

WOMEN JUNIOR:
**Pieterse
*Van Anrooij, De Wilde, Flynn, Couzens
Definately agree with those although I would add a couple of riders into those lists. Munro* and Gunsalus* for Junior Women, Kay, Clouse* and Van Alphen* for U23 women, Kamp, Benoist*, Tulett and Mason* for U23 men and Orts* for Elite.
 
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Gotta say, for the men, i'd put the stars like this:

* * * * * van der Poel
* * * *
* * * Aerts, van Aert, Iserbyt
* * Pidcock, Sweeck
* Merlier, Vanthourenhout ...

I'm sure van der Haar will play his role, like he's always done, but there are about 10 guys who are better than him, even though he can really put up a fight, i can't see him get even close to the podium this year. On the other hand, the gap between van der Poel and the others is too big to even put anybody else directly beneath him. Even giving others 3 stars to his 5 seems disingenuous. Not really a believer in Sweeck. He's been crap the past 3 seasons, this year he's shown some life, but ultimately, i can't see him being the one to challenge van der Poel, unless team tactics play out like that. I know some analysts think he has worked towards the WCC but he hasn't been consistent at all, and has only been really good in two or three races, and never against Mathieu. From what i can tell, i think it can be a good course for van Aert to move up quickly. A lot of long straights, and from what i could see, with enough room to pass, not too many technical sections, i think he can put out his power on this track and surface. I can see him on the podium.
 
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That's how I had it. Mathieu with 5 and then the next guys with 3.

* Van der Poel
****
***Iserbyt, Aerts
**Sweeck, Van Aert, Vanthourenhout, Pidcock
*Merlier

****Alvarado, Worst, Brand
***Kastelijn, Cant
**Richards
*Compton

When it comes to the U23 and Junior races, I'm far more invested in the women's races. I guess it's because I often get to see the top U23 and junior women racing in the elite races.
 
Gotta say, for the men, i'd put the stars like this:

  • * * * * van der Poel
  • * * *
  • * * Aerts, van Aert, Iserbyt
  • * Pidcock, Sweeck
  • Merlier, Vanthourenhout ...

More or less agree. MVDP has proven to be extremely consistent ever since his win in Bogensee last year. In particular he is almost flawless and makes close to no serious mistakes while most of the other top riders eventually do during a race. I think (hope) that WvA potentially can surprise and grab a second spot but otherwise the two top contenders to Mathieu should be Aerts and Iserbyt. Pidcock has the technique and power but not the stamina, Sweeck too, Merlier seems to lack top-end technique and MVant - having excellent technique - seems just a notch too weak.

On the point of race course and technique it was very interesting to watch the Kasteelcross. A seemingly unassuming, flat and relatively easy race course all of the top riders found themselves in real trouble on a couple of sections and made more technical mistakes than have been seen in a long time. An off-camber in between two smaller ditches proved hard for all including MVDP who struggled to get to grips with it for several laps. Finally MVDP managed to ride it cleanly and then saved some 5-7 seconds (clean ~8 sec vs small mistake ~13 sec and bigger mistake ~15 sec). It was also interesting to see riders making bad choices in trying to stay on the bike instead of running thereby loosing precious seconds (it is hard to make the right decisions when your body is full of lactic acid). It shows that even a race course that just doesn't look that tough can be quite decisive given the right conditions and that's the really exciting thing with cyclocross - these many, split-second, difficult decisions on on&off/line choice/whom to follow or not/etc that eventually can make or brake a whole race. One of the most exciting races to watch this season!