Agree, except with "If he can't, he'll just be beaten fair and square by a better rider."Maaaaaaaarten said:If you think weather, cobbles and crashes are the main factors, than maybe you think Boonen and Cancellara are the favourites for this TDF? I'm quite sure the climbs will be the main factor is sorting out the pack.....
If Contador loses too much time in echelons and on the cobbles, it's just his own fault for being too weak. Dealing with the weather and the cobbles are first and foremost skills.If all Contador can do is climb, he should just go target the polka dot jersey or something. But hey, I think he can do more than just climb and I'm quite sure he climbs well enough to be able to earn back any time he loses on the cobbles and in the weather when the mountains come. If he can't, he'll just be beaten fair and square by a better rider.
No doubt that he'd be beaten fair and square, but it's far from certain it will be done by a better rider, which doesn't make it any less fair and square.
In 2006 Óscar Pereiro Sío beat Klöden and Sastre fair and square, but he wasn't a better rider.