Rate the 2018 Tour de France route

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I really don't understand why shorter stages would be harder to control. There's not even flat roads to burn them rouleurs on.

The hardest stages to control are the ones that naturally cause mass breakaways. Sky can just churn the train here.

I echo what Contador said:

- The pave stage is a lottery for all GC contenders.
- Nobody will control the 65 km stage.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re: Re:

I really don't understand why shorter stages would be harder to control. There's not even flat roads to burn them rouleurs on.

The hardest stages to control are the ones that naturally cause mass breakaways. Sky can just churn the train here.

I echo what Contador said:

- The pave stage is a lottery for all GC contenders.
- Nobody will control the 65 km stage.

If Sky is in yellow they will try to control it, else carnage!

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I really don't understand why shorter stages would be harder to control. There's not even flat roads to burn them rouleurs on.

The hardest stages to control are the ones that naturally cause mass breakaways. Sky can just churn the train here.

I echo what Contador said:

- The pave stage is a lottery for all GC contenders.
- Nobody will control the 65 km stage.

Why won't they control that stage? It's climb or descend all day. Castro paces Peyresourde, select break gets one minute. Kwiatkowski paces the Azet. Nothing changes. Then a small break reaches the bottom of Col de Portet with a small advantage to a 30 man peloton with all the main contenders while Froome still has Thomas, Poels, Moscon and Kwiatkowski, and nobody else has more than 2 teammates.

 

[railxmig]

I don't think I've ever had a harder time rating a route. There are so many things I love and hate about this route at the same time. The thing I like most about this route is that we get a return of medium mountain stages. Such a hilly stage in the first week is something we probably haven't seen in the tour since 2014. The cobbles are great and could have a huge impact on the gc.

I may be both dumb and blind, but why does it look more hilly than the stage Sagan won this year to Longwy?

There are more hills (the second profile only shows the second part of the stage).

Thanks for the pics. Judging by the Kerlividic sign 5,5km from the finish line and an uphill finish there might be a small chance of a finish borrowed from Tour du Finistère. Allée Meilh Stang Vihan is a tough *** with 400m at roughly 11,5% with the top 500m from the finish line near the Quimper-Cornouaille expo.

BTW, just seen Pic de Nore is in the Carcassonne stage. I allways felt Pic de Nore is way overrated. It's just a normal cat. 1 climb. Pic de Nore north is quite ok, but i think if you want to see something, that will have a small chance of sticking out to the end, then only Mazamet finish. There's IMO just too much flat in the run-in to Carcassonne. I expect some minor pushes on Pic de Nore, but i don't think anythink will survive beyond the 5% descent.

 

[rghysens]

Thanks for the pics. Judging by the Kerlividic sign 5,5km from the finish line and an uphill finish there might be a small chance of a finish borrowed from Tour du Finistère. Allée Meilh Stang Vihan is a tough *** with 400m at roughly 11,5% with the top 500m from the finish line near the Quimper-Cornouaille expo.

If I understood it well (my french has become quite dodgy at best) Christian Prudhomme announced during the presentation that it is the finish of the tour du finistère.

 

[hrotha]

Cobbles are a lottery only for the unskilled.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Cobbles are a lottery only for the unskilled.

Not always true!

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

I really don't understand why shorter stages would be harder to control. There's not even flat roads to burn them rouleurs on.

The hardest stages to control are the ones that naturally cause mass breakaways. Sky can just churn the train here.

I echo what Contador said:

- The pave stage is a lottery for all GC contenders.
- Nobody will control the 65 km stage.

Why won't they control that stage? It's climb or descend all day. Castro paces Peyresourde, select break gets one minute. Kwiatkowski paces the Azet. Nothing changes. Then a small break reaches the bottom of Col de Portet with a small advantage to a 30 man peloton with all the main contenders while Froome still has Thomas, Poels, Moscon and Kwiatkowski, and nobody else has more than 2 teammates.

This is my reasoning. The shortest the stage the least scared riders will be about measuring the strength. With 65 kms that would be a problem for Sky. You would have so many riders wanting to attack from the beginning. In the past those short stages have been a problem to control because of that same issue.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I really don't understand why shorter stages would be harder to control. There's not even flat roads to burn them rouleurs on.

The hardest stages to control are the ones that naturally cause mass breakaways. Sky can just churn the train here.

I echo what Contador said:

- The pave stage is a lottery for all GC contenders.
- Nobody will control the 65 km stage.

Why won't they control that stage? It's climb or descend all day. Castro paces Peyresourde, select break gets one minute. Kwiatkowski paces the Azet. Nothing changes. Then a small break reaches the bottom of Col de Portet with a small advantage to a 30 man peloton with all the main contenders while Froome still has Thomas, Poels, Moscon and Kwiatkowski, and nobody else has more than 2 teammates.

This is my reasoning. The shortest the stage the least scared riders will be about measuring the strength. With 65 kms that would be a problem for Sky. You would have so many riders wanting to attack from the beginning. In the past those short stages have been a problem to control because of that same issue.

And all those riders that want in the break get shredded immediately. Very few are gonna be good enough to stay in the break

 

[Gigs_98]

Moreover the question is always which riders want to attack. If breakaway guys attack on the Peyresurde a 50 men break could form and they still wouldn't care. The only attacks they care about are from gc riders and I really don't think anyone with gc ambitions will be crazy enough to attack when sky is still at full strength and there is a brutal HC at the end of the stage.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Tom D waiting for the route of the Giro to be announced before deciding which GT to ride, so my question is, seeing the Giro is the first GT of the year, why is the Tour announced before the Giro? I would have thought they would be announced in order so the guys can start to prepare but the Giro is not announced for another month! Is there any logical reason for this?

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

The first week is very good but the mountains stages are meh, and the TT a joke also this year.
Anyway it's hard to give a vote with no complete profiles.

Funny, I dont really think the first week is good, a couple of hilly days, a team time trial and and cobbled stage. Thats still 5/9 sprinter stages. Lets hope one or two of those will have echelons..

On the contrary, I think the mountain stages of the Alps are some of the best designed mountain stages I have seen from ASO. In isolation. The Pyrenees are very much meh.

Stage one is almost all along the coast where usually in the afternoon is windy even with high pressure, and with bad weather could become something like the first two stage of this year Paris-Nice.
And looking at wind almost all stage of first week are pretty exposed (bar the two hilly) if there will be bad weather.
The TT could be another shot to put interesting gaps.
Stage five could be an Amstel like stage and also the following it's not a flat run to Mur de Bretagne.
And then we have the cobbles, even if i think 22 kms are an exaggeration because the climber could lose a lot of time in case of being dropped early, we'll have entartainment for sure that day.

Looking at the mouintain we have an interesting first alpine stage but with a descent finish that could neutralize gaps, a joke stage and the final day designed to have only the Alpe showdown.
In the Pyrenees we have finally a long stage but with only three climb, flat in between the first two and the third and another descent to neutralize gaps, then the 65 kms insult, the Pau sprint and another descent finish after an easy climb divided in three KOM before the joke TT that even Purito would have liked.

Probably the Alpine joke and the Pyrenean insult will be two exciting days, but that's not something for a GT, where endurance should be a factor, in some years i fear we'll see also a 150 kms Liege or Roubaix if that's the trend.

IMHO a totally flat 50+ kms TT and two 200+ kms stages with 5+ climbs should be mandatory to give options to TT specialists to gain minutes and then climbers to take minutes back.

 

[Nirvana]

Tom D waiting for the route of the Giro to be announced before deciding which GT to ride, so my question is, seeing the Giro is the first GT of the year, why is the Tour announced before the Giro? I would have thought they would be announced in order so the guys can start to prepare but the Giro is not announced for another month! Is there any logical reason for this?

The main reason is that Rome administrators asked time and RCS want a Rome parade the final day but i think there are also other problems for some stages.

 

[barmaher]

I don't know how to rate this route. I really like the 3 x HC Alpe stage and a number of the innovative finishes. I love the cobbles and the return of medium mountain stages with some bite.

I don't even mind the 65km stage too much. Let's see what can happen.

For me, there are two major problems.

1 - Time trialling is all wrong. I like TTT's more than others as they are great for fans on the opening stage. But this is too long, and the ITT is too short. I would say make stage 1 a TTT, and reduce it to 15km or 20km. Enough for decent gaps, but not enough to ruin anyone's tour. Convert the TTT into an ITT of the same length. Then we are cooking with gas.

2 - The sequencing of the mountain stages is all wrong. Sure we can all come up with more epic mountain stages, but I think we have a good mix here. But the Alpes are the wrong way around and I worry that riders will worry that they will burn all their matches by attacking on any of the days preceding the ADH stage. Stage 19 would be a GREAT final mountain stage if there weren't an ITT directly afterward. Why not move the boring flat stage to after this stage. So swap stages 18 and 19. This means that people can go balls deep on the final mountain stage and have an extra "rest" day before the ITT.

If these changes were made, I would be giving it a 9 possibly. As thing stand, I am happy to give it a 7. Partially because expectations are so low.

 

[railxmig]

Re: Re:

The first week is very good but the mountains stages are meh, and the TT a joke also this year.
Anyway it's hard to give a vote with no complete profiles.

Funny, I dont really think the first week is good, a couple of hilly days, a team time trial and and cobbled stage. Thats still 5/9 sprinter stages. Lets hope one or two of those will have echelons..

On the contrary, I think the mountain stages of the Alps are some of the best designed mountain stages I have seen from ASO. In isolation. The Pyrenees are very much meh.

Stage one is almost all along the coast where usually in the afternoon is windy even with high pressure, and with bad weather could become something like the first two stage of this year Paris-Nice.
And looking at wind almost all stage of first week are pretty exposed (bar the two hilly) if there will be bad weather.

I've checked out the map for stage 1. I doubt ASO was thinking about echelons, more about packing as many Atlantic resorts as possible. When you want to design an echelon stage near Atlantic Ocean then i would not advise using the roads closest to the coast, as the coast often tends to be heavily populated and forested. However, the slightly inland roads tends to be much more open.

Starting from Les Sables d'Olonne there as some more open places, but ASO chosen on a more populated option (D25). If you would want to maximize the chance for echelons, then i think D949 through Luçon would be a more interesting option. It seems to be quite in the open for majority of time, while being just slightly inland. A while ago i did a TdF and i had a dedicated echelon stage in the same area finishing in Saint-Gilles-Croix-de-Vie. If you'll check it out, you'll see that for the last 50km i decided to not use the coastal roads, as the slightly more inland D758 and D51 were much more open, which should maximise the chance of echelons. But that's just theory and, like you said, it all depends on the weather. The winds in the area are normally south-west to north-east and the area is also quite stormy. If there will be storms, then even in the more covered areas there should be plenty of wind. That's how Zelande 2015 played out.

I wonder if stage 2 would be better suited for echelons. The direction of the last kms seems to be right, but the roads seems to be quite well covered.

 

[slosada]

7/10
Too long for a TTT. It will eliminate some GC contenders. 20Km max would have been OK. OTOH, Some seem to forget that a TTT will force exchanging climbing domestiques for rouleurs/TTers. (for Sky this doesn't seem to be an issue as Froome, Thomas, Kiwi, Moscon and Castroviejo can excel in both ends)
Backloaded... Apart from the TTT, the tour will only start in stage 9. The Mur will only give seconds One harder stage in the first week can make GC riders struggle with form.
The Alps have an issue with the queen stage at the end. Forcing the first two stages to be ridden conservatively.
The Pyrenees have the right mixture (long hard-short hard-flat-hard), but the execution doesn't appeal that much.

 

[Tonton]

If the weather is "bad", stages 4 and 5 (later part) could also be favorable for crosswinds considering the route direction. We can only speculate and may be surprised...we're good at many things, predictions not being one of them .

The same goes for the cobbled stage or the 65km stage. No one here can tell what will happen. The former will take contenders out of contention, that's likely. The latter could be mayhem, and I don't see anyone controlling it. I trust Contador's word on this one. He knows a thing or two about cycling and cycling tactics. Having said that, Contador won't be there, so (as it was written) who will put the hammer down? Sooner or later, no doubt: it will be a free for all...I hope.

I'm not bummed up one bit by this design, or at least not until mid-July .

 

[blaxland]

Only gave it a 5 ,cause the only stages that i like are stage9,the alpe stage...im happy the teams are down to 8 riders each but also need to have power meters banned and race radio's..i can see the tour being raced negatively until the third week...time will tell i guess?The 65km stage will amount to nothing but sky controlling the stage until the final climb.doh..

 

[Tonton]

doh...with all due respect, what do you know? You could be right, but short stages have been the theater of some bloody fights and big time gaps, compared to the 200km stages. When (not if) everybody freaks out, riding a tempo may go out the window. The truth is...we don't know. ASO will be genius or goat. You say goat. What do you know?

 

[Tonton]

And really, reading my last post, I don't want to be an a$$, but what do we know? Wind in Bretagne could be like PN mayhem. Two muritos and a cobble stage. We could have a crazy first week if the stars line up. Better than recent years, Kittel vs. Cav' and the other Sagan, Greipel, Demare (now), AK, and a total meh that was safe to predict...This design (which I don't like that much, BTW look-up my TdF in the design thread - and there's Les Glieres) at least gives a chance for some WTF moments, Tour lost before it even began (LRP watch out, Pinot, many others)...we are red-hot, over-analyze, and will be proven wrong. As always, or at least often. And hrotha will call it a platitude: riders will make the race. If it's like we have seen in recent years, self-proclaimed attackers who don't attack, if weather is nice and cobbles are friendly, Froome makes it 5, unless Dumoulin stops him. Again, what do we know?

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

I don't know how to rate this route. I really like the 3 x HC Alpe stage and a number of the innovative finishes. I love the cobbles and the return of medium mountain stages with some bite.

I don't even mind the 65km stage too much. Let's see what can happen.

For me, there are two major problems.

1 - Time trialling is all wrong. I like TTT's more than others as they are great for fans on the opening stage. But this is too long, and the ITT is too short. I would say make stage 1 a TTT, and reduce it to 15km or 20km. Enough for decent gaps, but not enough to ruin anyone's tour. Convert the TTT into an ITT of the same length. Then we are cooking with gas.

2 - The sequencing of the mountain stages is all wrong. Sure we can all come up with more epic mountain stages, but I think we have a good mix here. But the Alpes are the wrong way around and I worry that riders will worry that they will burn all their matches by attacking on any of the days preceding the ADH stage. Stage 19 would be a GREAT final mountain stage if there weren't an ITT directly afterward. Why not move the boring flat stage to after this stage. So swap stages 18 and 19. This means that people can go balls deep on the final mountain stage and have an extra "rest" day before the ITT.

If these changes were made, I would be giving it a 9 possibly. As thing stand, I am happy to give it a 7. Partially because expectations are so low.

Nice post.

Voted a 7 too. Have very mixed feelings, as others do.

I think that stage 10 will be great. I'm expecting huge action on Romme; coming off a rest day, too many riders will be feeling 'sensations' to hold back. The GC riders will use stage 11 as a 'rest' day, then go again for stage 12. I am not fussed if stage 11 fizzles out, so long as the other two stages in the alps are raced hard. And the route/race won't be backloaded if that's the case.

It's not really a good route for Quintana (despite the horrendous lack of ITT, again!). It is not backloaded, and there are not really, really high altitude stages that are also really, really, long. Plus he has to contend with cobbles and crosswinds. Moviestar to enter the TDF with Quintana and Landa as co-leaders?

It's a good route for Nibali. He has a serious shot at a second Tour.

It's not really a good route for Froome. But because any route is a good route for Froome, then it's a good route for Froome.

It is not a particularly good route for Porte. First mountain stage already is a descent finish, and that's if he has survived the cobbles. Wouldn't mind seeing him try the Giro again. In fact if Tom does the Tour, then Porte SHOULD do the Giro.

Though the Tour is not a great route for Tom either.

Back to the course. I think that stage 16 is being under rated. It's long, and has plenty of climbing in the final third of the stage. And strange things happen after rest days.

 

[Robert5091]

Sky take time on all GC contenders in the TTT, sit on the lead until the ITT when Froome rides to glory - hallelujah brothers and sisters! 5 times chump ... I mean champ.

 

[Robert5091]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/por...wont-make-the-tour-de-france-more-attractive/

Nicolas Portal (Team Sky) praised ASO for the 2018 Tour de France route ...
"It suits Froome and the team quite well and looking at things now I’m pretty confident.”

So the Giro rumors can wait until 2019 then ... The only thing I would like to see would be Landa & Tommy D within seconds of Froome after stage 9.

 

[Kyllingen86]

I doubt either Dumoulin and Landa will be there.

Dumoulin will go to the Giro if they have more than 45 km of ITT in total and Landa has more than once proclaimed his love for the Giro.

My guess is the Giro will be Landas primary goal but that he could come to the Tour in a free role as well.


The rumours of next years Giro d'Italia promises more mountains than the Tour but of course we can't be sure of anything before the official presentation.

 

[Red Rick]

Giro seems to gonna suit Dumoulin massively except Finestre and Zoncolan.