Rate The GC Contenders!

[ludwig]

Here's the challenge.....rate your contenders according to the model below, or list them 1-15, according to the likelihood of winning the Giro....

*****Evans
****Basso, Vino
***Scarponi, Garzelli, Sastre,
**Karpets, Bruseghin, Pozzovivo, Serpa,
*Arroyo, Nibali, Vandevelde, Cunego, Moreno

This is the first time I've ever picked Evans to win a Gt, but he's got the form and seems the most likely winner.... Basso seems like the scariest challenger....Vino will dominate several stages but won't be consistent enough. Scarponi, Garzelli, Sastre, and Bruseghin could all potentially spoil the party.

 

[Sasquatch]

*****Evans
****Sastre, Vinokourov
***Garzelli, Pozzovivo, Bruseghin
**Basso, Nibali, Serpa, Scarponi
*Arroyo, Simoni, Wiggins, Uran, Moncoutie

 

[titleshot]

1. Millar
2. Evans
3. VandeVelde
4. Wiggins
5. Basso
6. Sastre
7. Nibali
8. Garzelli
9. Vino
10. Scarponi
11. Simoni
12. Tondo
13. Cunego
14. Moncoutie
15. Voeckler

 

[Kino__]

***** Basso
**** Sastre, Evans
*** Garzelli, Nibali, Scarponi
** Bruseghin, Pozzovivo, Wiggins, Cunego,
* Vandevelde, Serpa, Uran, Simoni,

 

[Inner Peace]

I went back to mid March and found my original Giro predictions.. I think some can be updated now haha

1. Carlos Sastre
2. Cadel Evans
3. Ricardo Ricco
4. Franco Pellizotti
5. Ivan Basso
6. Stefano Garzelli
7. Rigaberto Uran
8. Mauricio Soler Hernandez
9. Gilberto Simoni
10. Bradley Wiggins

I'm undecided about the top 2. The course suits Sastre more, but Evans will be more motivated. I would prefer Evans wins, he deserves a GT win..

New predictions:

1. Evans (*****)
2. Sastre (*****)
3. Basso (****)
4. Vinokourov (****)
5. Scarponi (***)
6. Garzelli (***)
7. Pozzovivo (***)
8. Nibali (***)
9. Uran (**)
10. Simoni (**)
11. Vandevelde (*)
12. Soler Hernandez (*)
13. Bruseghin (*)
14. Porte (*)
15. Wiggins (*)

I still think the course is tailor made for Sastre, and the TTT gives Basso and Nibali the edge. However, I have decided to change my top vote to Evans. He looks more motivated and confident than i've ever seen before BMC shouldn't lose to much to Cervelo in the TTT, which could keep Sastre in check.

 

[Sasquatch]

If Ricco could ride here, he would win this.

 

[Escarabajo]

I went back to mid March and found my original Giro predictions.. I think some can be updated now haha



New predictions:

1. Evans (*****)
2. Sastre (*****)
3. Basso (****)
4. Vinokourov (****)
5. Scarponi (***)
6. Garzelli (***)
7. Pozzovivo (***)
8. Nibali (***)
9. Uran (**)
10. Simoni (**)
11. Vandevelde (*)
12. Soler Hernandez (*)
13. Bruseghin (*)
14. Porte (*)
15. Wiggins (*)

I still think the course is tailor made for Sastre, and the TTT gives Basso and Nibali the edge. However, I have decided to change my top vote to Evans. He looks more motivated and confident than i've ever seen before BMC shouldn't lose to much to Cervelo in the TTT, which could keep Sastre in check.

Soler for the Tour maybe.

 

[Zerak-Tul]

Evans ****
Sastre ****
Basso ***
Vinokourov ***
Everyone else **,*

I don't really think this "his to lose" for any rider. Evans has good form, but that many mountains might not be ideal for him. On the flip side all the mountains are good for Sastre, but he just hasn't shown form yet (whether that's deliberate or not, who knows).

Basically the very best GT riders aren't at the giro (Contador, Schleck etc.) so I don't think there's really any five star material here..

 

[ingsve]

On the flip side all the mountains are good for Sastre, but he just hasn't shown form yet (whether that's deliberate or not, who knows).

All the main difficulties are in the last week. If you compare Sastre and Evans I think that certainly favors Sastre. Sastre has been focusing completely on the Giro and has not ridden any races with a competitive mindset yet this year. He will be coming into the giro after training specifically to be good there and will be looking to ride himself into the best shape for the last week.

Evans on the other hand has been in good shape for several weeks now since the classics. He has not had time to go out of shape so that he can build up from scratch but instead relies on keeping his good shape throughout the Giro. Chances are that he might start losing form rather than gaining form in the last week. He certainly won't be getting any stronger as the race progresses.

The question that to me is the big uncertainty is how good Sastre can become during the Giro. Even if the buildup coming into the Giro favors Sastre I'm still not sure it will be enough.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

**** Evans, Sastre, Basso (maybe he lacks some explosiveness compared to evans and sastre, but he makes up with a good team, whereas Evans team sucks.. irregardless what some say, it sucks.)

*** Nibali, Garzelli, Vino,

** Gibo, Cunego (I wish he could regain his GT form tho) VdV, Bruseghin, Scarponi

* Uran, Pozzovivo, Mollema etc (Note I don't put wiggo in this, as I'm certain he wont feature other then the time trails.)

 

[El Imbatido]

**** Evans, Sastre, Basso (maybe he lacks some explosiveness compared to evans and sastre, but he makes up with a good team, whereas Evans team sucks.. irregardless what some say, it sucks.)

I was rewatching some of my WCP TdF viseos the other day ( i think it was 2005) and Phil and Paul described Sastre as a diesel engine needing time to get up to speed in relation so Asstrong. My question is what does that make Evans and Basso? Semi trailer trucks? freight trains? tanks?


As for rating the contenders:
I see Evans as the only 5 star but by the 3rd week he could be going down to 4 star.
Whilst Basso and Sastre are 4 star contenders i see them as possibly going upto 5 star by week 3
3 stars for Nibali, Garzelli, (thought about making him 4), Scarponi and Vino (also thought about making him 4 but he'll blow up somwhere.)
Wiggo, Vandevelde, Gibo at 2 stars for a variety of different reasons .ie. Tour prep, last swansong etc

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

yeah well, it is phil and paul...

explosiveness might have been the wrong word anyway. But in climbing in general, I think sastre and Evans are better (and they are more explosive then basso, who is all diesel).

 

[Inner Peace]

Soler for the Tour maybe.

Fair to say I haven't looked at the startlist... probably why I tipped Lars Boom (boom pow) for the prologue!!

Giro would have been a good course for Mauricio, still loved his grit shown in the 2007 tour

 

[Tangled Tango]

Considering the last week it´s hard to see Evans making the podium.

Sastre
Basso
Vino
Evans

 

[Kazistuta]

Besides the obvious names it seems like people are forgetting Dani Moreno. I'd rate him above Mollema any day..... He's not gonnamake a splash today at the prologue, but he will most likely (like Sastre) be in even better form in the crucial third week. I'm not picking him for the overall win, but he's an outsider for top5 IMO.

Francesco Masciarelli might as well be a good outsider pick (top10 possibly) - he impressed me last year, being consistent and to my recollection getting better during the giro.

And the suddenly enruled Vladimir Karpets is also a top5 outsider. Showed great form in Romandy and will most definitely keep his form throughout the giro.

My rankings:
***** Evans, Sastre
**** Vinokourov, Basso
*** Nibali, Moreno, Pozzovivo, Garzelli, Karpets
** Cunego, Arroyo, Scarponi, F. Masciarelli, Vande Velde
* Serpa, Wiggins, Uran, Cataldo, Bruseghin, Simoni (hard to keep him off the list, even though I don't believe in him)

Potential top20 / surprises:
John Gadret, Carlos Ochoa, Paolo Tiralongo, David Moncoutie, Xavier Zandio (I think Caisse will win the team competition) , Markus Eibegger, Thomas Rohregger, Dan Martin, Sylvester Szmyd, Francis De Greef, Matthew Lloyd, Bauke Mollema, Branislau Samoilau, Juan Horrach, Chris Anker Sørensen

 

[Xavi_Hernandez]

***** Sastre, Evans
**** Vinokourov
*** Nibali, Basso, Garzelli
** Scarponi, Pozzovivo, Bruzeghin, Wiggins, Vandevelde, Cunego
* Simoni, Karpets, Gerdemann, Uran, Arroyo, Mollema

 

[ludwig]

Besides the obvious names it seems like people are forgetting Dani Moreno. I'd rate him above Mollema any day..... He's not gonnamake a splash today at the prologue, but he will most likely (like Sastre) be in even better form in the crucial third week. I'm not picking him for the overall win, but he's an outsider for top5 IMO.

Francesco Masciarelli might as well be a good outsider pick (top10 possibly) - he impressed me last year, being consistent and to my recollection getting better during the giro.

And the suddenly enruled Vladimir Karpets is also a top5 outsider. Showed great form in Romandy and will most definitely keep his form throughout the giro.

My rankings:
***** Evans, Sastre
**** Vinokourov, Basso
*** Nibali, Moreno, Pozzovivo, Garzelli, Karpets
** Cunego, Arroyo, Scarponi, F. Masciarelli, Vande Velde
* Serpa, Wiggins, Uran, Cataldo, Bruseghin, Simoni (hard to keep him off the list, even though I don't believe in him)

Potential top20 / surprises:
John Gadret, Carlos Ochoa, Paolo Tiralongo, David Moncoutie, Xavier Zandio (I think Caisse will win the team competition) , Markus Eibegger, Thomas Rohregger, Dan Martin, Sylvester Szmyd, Francis De Greef, Matthew Lloyd, Bauke Mollema, Branislau Samoilau, Juan Horrach, Chris Anker Sørensen

Good call...I forgot about Karpets, so I edited my post today to include him.

Idk if Sorenson will start the Giro.

Will Dan Martin be riding GC? If so he's a dark horse maybe. Zandio also a potential Top 10 no doubt.

 

[Mambo95]

For me:

***** Evans
**** Sastre, Basso, Nibali
*** Vinokourov, Garzelli, Vande Velde
** Scarponi, Pozzovivo, Wiggins, Cunego
* Any half decent climber you care mention

(I've probably missed someone obvious there)

Some explainations: I really rate Nibali and to a lesser extent CVV. I've not seen evidence that Vino can still hack a 3 week Tour (yet). Wiggins will do exactly what he said he will.

 

[fox1981]

If people remember last years Giro, it was won on the ITT. Sastre came into the Giro with little pre-form but certainly came good in the last week and put in 2 great stages. I think the course this year favours Sastre above Evans, with the very limited time trialling, and a crazy last week of climbing. This kind of course suits a pure climber (like Sastre), and i dont think their are any italians this year that would traditionally fare well on that terrain.

 

[python]

If people remember last years Giro, it was won on the ITT. Sastre came into the Giro with little pre-form but certainly came good in the last week and put in 2 great stages. I think the course this year favours Sastre above Evans, with the very limited time trialling, and a crazy last week of climbing. This kind of course suits a pure climber (like Sastre), and i dont think their are any italians this year that would traditionally fare well on that terrain.

i would not call a gt with four time trials 'a limited trialing giro' but your point stands - sastre has a manageable task considering what's left. particularly, if we remember that stage 16 itt is a straight up mountain tt where sastre is not likely to lose any time if not to gain some.

yep, he looks like a very serious bet for the top spot.

 

[The Reverend]

Interesting ratings for Sastre

It's curious that most seem to rate Carlos so highly given his relative absence from racing so far. I can see that he can ride himself into form over the Giro, but his training would need to have put him into close to '08 form to have him ready to go in the first 10 days. Last year was not good for him, and even he must have limited confidence after it (whether it was motivation or other reasons). For sure the third week is his over Evans, depending on the state of their lieutenants at that stage (and who can tell). Vino looks really strong but I really hope he can't do it (yeah, my bad, I know!), I rate Nibali too,but cannot see him getting the required support to be a GC contender unless Basso folds. Wiggo is a 'no way, Jose' and the rest don't look the goods to me. Really, the absence of the significant GC riders has made the standard more like the Vuelta (IMHO).
***** Evans
****Sastre
***Vino
* the rest

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

It's curious that most seem to rate Carlos so highly given his relative absence from racing so far. I can see that he can ride himself into form over the Giro, but his training would need to have put him into close to '08 form to have him ready to go in the first 10 days. Last year was not good for him, and even he must have limited confidence after it (whether it was motivation or other reasons).

Yup. Winning 2 stages at the giro + 3rd place.
Bloody Pathetic!!! must be going into this with no self belief whatsoever.

For sure the third week is his over Evans

Considering the first 2 weeks vs the 3rd week (seriously a monster 3rd week), form in that final week will decide the race no doubt.

And some would argue sastre's approach will leave him fresh and fit to take this race by storm, especially as the race progresses (outside the 3rd week -- stage 14 and onwards really -- stages 6 to 8 will be the only ones that may really test sastre's form. I think he will survive them fine.), whereas surely someone like evans who has been going hard for a while now, will struggle to maintain the form over the 3 weeks.

Sastre is my favorite to win.

 

[Franklin]

If people remember last years Giro, it was won on the ITT. Sastre came into the Giro with little pre-form but certainly came good in the last week and put in 2 great stages. I think the course this year favours Sastre above Evans, with the very limited time trialling, and a crazy last week of climbing. This kind of course suits a pure climber (like Sastre), and i dont think their are any italians this year that would traditionally fare well on that terrain.

The more climbing, the worse it will be for the lightweight climbers! This has been proven in many gt's. The "heavier" climbers, TT specialists if you want to call them, have an easier time recovering.

Also, the prologue often shows the final classification. In my eyes the winner will be one of the following, ranked in this order

1. Wiggo
2. Cadel
3. Vino

 

[Jonathan]

***** Sastre
**** Nibali, Vinokourov
*** Basso, Evans, Wiggins
** Cunego, Mollema, Fothen, Garzelli, Scarponi, Vandevelde, Pozzovivo
* Simoni, Arroyo, Gerdemann, ...

 

[luckyboy]

***** Sastre, Evans
**** Vinokourov, Nibali
*** Basso, Karpets, Garzelli
** Wiggins, Cunego, Simoni, Pozzovivo
* Mollema, Arroyo, Moreno, Bruseghin, Vandevelde, Scarponi


It'd be good if Karpets showed something.