Rest Day 1 Round Up - la Vuelta 2011

[stetre76]

Going to be an intersting 2nd half of the Vuelta.

For me, Nibali is the one who holds all the cards, eventhough Sky has two riders up front with Fromme and Wiggins which might help them with their tactics.

But let's not forget about Kessiakoff - he's done really great so far, and he really likes the steep climbs, of which there are still some ahead.

This year he won the MTF at the Kitzbuehler Horn with more than a minute.
Of course, the Kitzbuehler Horn is not as long a climb as the Anglirú, but it has some very steep sections going on for quite some time - so this might be something Kessiakoff also like.

And Menchov, well, he's improving as the 2nd week starts, as so often...

 

[Papparrazzi]

Gaps are small and can almost be wiped on the Angliru alone.

Although there they will probably smaller than before continuing in the recent GT tradition.

Nibali holds all the cards.

34x29 !!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/mosquera-ready-for-the-angliru

 

[Lexman]

Yeah, 2nd half of the Vuelta will be very interesting.

- Menchov normally gets better the longer the GT goes on

- VDB said he didn't touch his time trial bike since his TDF accident and loses the same time as in the Dauphiné on Wiggins (says he know what's the problem with his TT, refuses to make it public, and will work on that next year), supposedly gets better since will have more cours days in his legs the coming week, if he has recovered from his TDF crash

- Wiggins : i wonder if, like VDB, he has recovered as needed from his TDF crash...

- Nibali : normally the favourite

- Scarponi : will not like that Nibali might win the Vuelta so will attack and might get one of the favourites lose the Vuelta

- Rodriguez : must attack everywhere he can but suffers maybe from a 'Valverde syndrom', i remember Valverde attacking in TDF from the first stage on and when the mountains came, no Valverde anymore in sight... a bit like Scarponi, might not win but make one of the favourites lose it...

- Froome, Kessiakof, Fuglsang, Monfort, Bollema, Cobo, Brajkovic, Martin : never rode in the first 10 of a GT so we don't know what they're worth on a 3 week race, so they might surprise us ...

still very open but i hope they will race and not do as in the TDF were the were doin' a 'sur place' in the Pyrennees...

 

[Eric8-A]

But let's not forget about Kessiakoff - he's done really great so far, and he really likes the steep climbs, of which there are still some ahead.

Yes. He's been doing extremely well. It's a shame he wasn't able to show this form last season because of injury I believe. I call this a loss for Garmin.

 

[Eric8-A]

Would love to see Dan Martin attack like crazy on every single MTF! Maybe he should not attack first though...

Would also be nice to see him win the KoM. Maybe he should attack for those points.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Froome = Rider of the Race so far.

why is that ?

Froome is a little too young and I think will have a really bad day.

young ? he is 26, granted he isn't old and he has never shown much promise in terms of a GT, but guys like mollema are younger.

I don't think froome will hold it together for the three weeks, but we'll see.

 

[Gloin22]

why is that ?




young ? he is 26, granted he isn't old and he has never shown much promise in terms of a GT, but guys like mollema are younger.

I don't think froome will hold it together for the three weeks, but we'll see.

Being only a domestique, after two days amazing effort of sheding like of Rodriguez or Scarponi and working his socks off Brad, pulls such a TT ! And take over the red. If he was the leder of his team, then yeah, it wouldn't be such achievement, but this whole week he was working for Brad the whole time, and that takes an effort.

 

[WillemS]

What do you guys think of Wiggins' test*? Do you think that will influence his riding?

*) He wants to try and see what it's like to ride a GT and do an important TT 10 days later, try out for the Olympics next year.

It will definitely influence his TDF riding next year, so if he wants to do a real test, he is going to have to try to conserve energy during the last week while still maintaining a good GC-position. I think that if he isn't close to first place in the last week, we will definitely see some conservative racing of him.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The Leopard duo of Fuglsang and Monfort will most likely lose sights of the GC as first ones, seeing their time losses on the previous mountaintop finish. They would need to improve considerable to have any shot at finishing in the front in the mountain stages.

Kessiakoff is riding anonymous, but great, he's the real X-factor. He finished just behind the leaders on the mountain stage and the previous hilly stages. But he'll need more if he wants to win the Vuelta.

Mollema is another question mark. In the Giro he finished 12th (2010), he had some lesser days, because he was slightly sick, this is his problem, can he stay healthy for 3 weeks? if he can he is dangerous because he isn't dropped easily on the climbs and clearly has a good finish for the boni sprints.

Then there's Froome, he hasn't had much remarkable results in his career right now. Of the top 10 riders I think he has the 'worst' palmares. Yet, he's there in red, and in smashing form. How will Sky handle this luxury problem? And can Froome himself hold on to this form for another 2 weeks?

Now the other Sky man, Wiggins. He was stronger on La Covitalla then expected, stronger than the climbers. But in the ITT he left something. Winning remarkably little to some dangerous rivals, not even 2 minutes. This means he has to actually make the difference on the climbs. That is new to Wiggins as usually he had to limit the damage, but on La Covitalla he already showed what he can do.

Nibali, he holds the best cards. Again the master of limiting the damage everywhere and riding consistently, but with a new twist. He rides offensively on the long climbs. We've seen him attack on Sierra Nevada and La Covitalla. On the last climb he underestimated the wind and paid for it in the final meters. But you can count on him to attack again on wednesday... but can he definately drop Wiggins, Froome, Mollema and the others? So far he couldn't.

As for Dan Martin, Igor Anton, Scarponi... I don't see it happening anymore, either too far back (Martin) or not in the right shape (Anton, Scarponi).

Then there is still Menchov, Cobo, Zubeldia, Vandenbroeck.. they might still content for top 5/top 10 places instead of unknown factors like Kessiakoff, Mollema etc, but so far they seem weaker.

 

[Sylvester]

- Froome, Kessiakof, Fuglsang, Monfort, Bollema, Cobo, Brajkovic, Martin : never rode in the first 10 of a GT so we don't know what they're worth on a 3 week race, so they might surprise us ...

Cobo was 10th and won a stage in the 2009 Vuelta. He will end up in the lower ranks of the top 10 this year too, methinks.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Plus Mollema would have been top 10 in the Giro without the L'Aquila disaster stage (with the big breakaway...)

 

[Tuarts]

The top 20 has 2 Sky, 2 Leopard, 2 Movistar, 2 Rabo, 2 Katusha, 2 Geox and 3 Radioshack which seems like quite a unique situation after time gaps from hills, descents, mountains and time trials.

Yeah, its a very unique situation, it means a lot of these teams have the luxury of 2 chances. Maybe its a new facet of modern racing we are seeing that now people are more level in ability the gaps between the leaders and the pack has diminished so I think it'll be more common to have 2/3 leaders of similar ability appearing.

Looking at the next stages and what they are:
Stage 11 - MTF
Stage 12 - Sprint
Stage 13 - Sprint
Stage 14 - MTF
Stage 15 - MTF
Stage 16 - Sprint
Stage 17 - Rouleur
Stage 18 - Sprint
Stage 19 - Rouleur/Sprint
Stage 20 - Sprint
Stage 21 - Sprint

Last 6 stages will be very dour for the Excitement Brigade but at least those sprinters who have suffered over all the climbs will get their chances (Kittel, Sagan, Petacchi, Haussler, Haedo, Sutton).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

In the past mountain finishes and time trials were good for throwing with minutes.

Nowadays they throw with seconds.

 

[roundabout]

Tuarts, Tuarts, Tuarts.

I agree with you that the last few stages will be rather boring. But I have to amend your descriptions

Stage 11 - MTF
Stage 12 - Sprint
Stage 13 - Sprint Will probably have 20 GC riders sprinting for it
Stage 14 - MTF
Stage 15 - MTF
Stage 16 - Sprint
Stage 17 - Rouleur A MTF at 6km @ 9% or so with the last km being the toughest
Stage 18 - Sprint Also may be too tough for sprinters
Stage 19 - Rouleur/Sprint Last chance to gain a bit of time on GC
Stage 20 - Sprint Either a break or the sprinters may not make it
Stage 21 - Sprint

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I've been too busy with life to even follow the race and am catching up. Whew, what a first week? That ITT really blew some people out the back end. Reminds me of some GT's in the 90's.

I agree with those who say this is Nibbles race to lose, and I'm okay with that. Menchov, Wiggins pose threats, obviously.

Sad to see Anton so far back. He's going to need a lot of luck, a big break, a shattered stage, and/or a great third week to have any hope now.

 

[TeoSheva]

Yeah, its a very unique situation, it means a lot of these teams have the luxury of 2 chances. Maybe its a new facet of modern racing we are seeing that now people are more level in ability the gaps between the leaders and the pack has diminished so I think it'll be more common to have 2/3 leaders of similar ability appearing.

Looking at the next stages and what they are:
Stage 11 - MTF
Stage 12 - Sprint
Stage 13 - Sprint
Stage 14 - MTF
Stage 15 - MTF
Stage 16 - Sprint
Stage 17 - Rouleur
Stage 18 - Sprint
Stage 19 - Rouleur/Sprint
Stage 20 - Sprint
Stage 21 - Sprint

Last 6 stages will be very dour for the Excitement Brigade but at least those sprinters who have suffered over all the climbs will get their chances (Kittel, Sagan, Petacchi, Haussler, Haedo, Sutton).

Stage 11 - MTF
Stage 12 - Sprint
Stage 13 - Sprint for GC guys or break
Stage 14 - MTF
Stage 15 - MTF
Stage 16 - Sprint
Stage 17 - MTF for JRO
Stage 18 - Sprint for guys like Sagan/Bennati (no Kittel) or break
Stage 19 - Sprint for guys like Sagan/Bennati (no Kittel) or break
Stage 20 - Sprint for guys like Sagan/Bennati (no Kittel) or break
Stage 21 - Sprint

 

[Tuarts]

Tuarts, Tuarts, Tuarts.

I agree with you that the last few stages will be rather boring. But I have to amend your descriptions

Stage 11 - MTF
Stage 12 - Sprint
Stage 13 - Sprint Will probably have 20 GC riders sprinting for it
Stage 14 - MTF
Stage 15 - MTF
Stage 16 - Sprint
Stage 17 - Rouleur A MTF at 6km @ 9% or so with the last km being the toughest
Stage 18 - Sprint Also may be too tough for sprinters
Stage 19 - Rouleur/Sprint Last chance to gain a bit of time on GC
Stage 20 - Sprint Either a break or the sprinters may not make it
Stage 21 - Sprint

I wasn't going into an in depth, analysis into every stage, just what most stages will likely be. Stage 13 has the finish line 27km after the last climb, so there'll more than likely be 30-40 riders in the pack if its a bunch sprint. Stage 17 isn't a mountain top finish in the same way the two stages Purito won aren't MTFs. It's a stage for the puncheurs like Purito. Stage 18 is the same as 13. Stage 19 - which is why I said it was for the Rouleurs and 20 may be a break but you can't factor in the likelihood in breaks to the stage profile, which suits sprinters.

Oh, I never said the stages were going to boring, just that a lot of people will be saying that.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Tuarts, Tuarts, Tuarts.

I agree with you that the last few stages will be rather boring. But I have to amend your descriptions

Stage 11 - MTF
Stage 12 - Sprint
Stage 13 - Sprint Will probably have 20 GC riders sprinting for it
Stage 14 - MTF
Stage 15 - MTF
Stage 16 - Sprint
Stage 17 - Rouleur A MTF at 6km @ 9% or so with the last km being the toughest
Stage 18 - Sprint Also may be too tough for sprinters
Stage 19 - Rouleur/Sprint Last chance to gain a bit of time on GC
Stage 20 - Sprint Either a break or the sprinters may not make it
Stage 21 - Sprint

gotta agree with this. stage 17 could be really awesome imo.

 

[roundabout]

I wasn't going into an in depth, analysis into every stage, just what most stages will likely be. Stage 13 has the finish line 27km after the last climb, so there'll more than likely be 30-40 riders in the pack if its a bunch sprint. Stage 17 isn't a mountain top finish in the same way the two stages Purito won aren't MTFs. It's a stage for the puncheurs like Purito. Stage 18 is the same as 13. Stage 19 - which is why I said it was for the Rouleurs and 20 may be a break but you can't factor in the likelihood in breaks to the stage profile, which suits sprinters.

Oh, I never said the stages were going to boring, just that a lot of people will be saying that.

Ah, ok. My point was that there is possibly (hopefully!) even more racing to go than meets the eye. A bit disappointing that the last big MTF is on stage 15 and a bit frustrating for the sprinters with only 3 clear cut chances left but if it continues to be close something may happen on stage 19.

 

[greenedge]

Froome is riding well but i wonder how he shall end up going. Fuglsang being very consistent and impressive. Wiggins and Nibali look well placed. Anton and JROD are going to have to pull off something to win. I digress at the fact JVDB might be out of contention, sure he lost time in the ITT but even so, he shall be getting better as the race goes on.

 

[ingsve]

Kessiakoff is riding anonymous, but great, he's the real X-factor. He finished just behind the leaders on the mountain stage and the previous hilly stages. But he'll need more if he wants to win the Vuelta.

We shouldn't expect Kessiakoff to be a contender for the win. He is taking everything one day at a time since he knows that there is an uncertainty in lasting three weeks.

He had a similar GC run in the Giro in 2009 with the difference that he started by Fuji getting last in the TTT and he also lost time on the first sprint stage but after that he stayed with the main GC favourites in he mountains sort of like he's doing now. He wasn't in the top 10 like now because of the time he lost in the beginning but he managed to get to 18th on GC in the middle of the race.

Then at stage 15 he started to get tired and lost 7 minutes but still maintained 18th spot overall. On the 16th stage it was all over and he lost 48 minutes.

The advantage now is that he has that experience with him already. The Giro in 2009 was the first really hard and long race he rode after switching from MTB so he wasn't used to the constant work load of road racingyet. Now it's two years down the line and he has more specific road training behind him. Also since the main difficulties are in the 2nd week it's not as likely to collapse in the somewhat easier 3rd week. Still I think he should be seen more as a top 10 contender rather than a podium challenger at this point.

 

[roundabout]

He also hasn't raced that much this year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

To be honest, for one of the hardest working riders in the peleton, JVDB is a total ******bag for neglecting his TT skills like that. Especially, since he SHOULD be able to do this quite well and take time on other climbers. This isn't a new problem. He will work on it next year... that's what he said 2 years ago. I'm rooting for the guy big time, but somebody should kick his ***.
Other than that, he surprised me in a good way. If you count all the uphill finishes combined (not counting time bonusses), he didn't lose time to anyone i believe. So that bodes well for the rest of the Vuelta. I still wouldn't count him out for a top 5 place. If he grows into his TdF form, who knows. He seems to have something up his sleeve, because he said "the vuelta starts now" after his abommination of a TT. Now to put that money where the mouth is.


http://translate.google.com/transla...lad.be/article/detail.aspx?articleid=7D3ELLGI

Pleasantly surprised by Seeldrayers (besides his TT of course), Mollema and Poels. Curious to see if they can keep it up the coming weeks. If so, Mollema might contend for a podium spot, certainly top 5 i'd say.

 

[cineteq]

The Leopard duo of Fuglsang and Monfort will most likely lose sights of the GC as first ones, seeing their time losses on the previous mountaintop finish. They would need to improve considerable to have any shot at finishing in the front in the mountain stages.

Kessiakoff is riding anonymous, but great, he's the real X-factor. He finished just behind the leaders on the mountain stage and the previous hilly stages. But he'll need more if he wants to win the Vuelta.

Mollema is another question mark. In the Giro he finished 12th (2010), he had some lesser days, because he was slightly sick, this is his problem, can he stay healthy for 3 weeks? if he can he is dangerous because he isn't dropped easily on the climbs and clearly has a good finish for the boni sprints.

Then there's Froome, he hasn't had much remarkable results in his career right now. Of the top 10 riders I think he has the 'worst' palmares. Yet, he's there in red, and in smashing form. How will Sky handle this luxury problem? And can Froome himself hold on to this form for another 2 weeks?

Now the other Sky man, Wiggins. He was stronger on La Covitalla then expected, stronger than the climbers. But in the ITT he left something. Winning remarkably little to some dangerous rivals, not even 2 minutes. This means he has to actually make the difference on the climbs. That is new to Wiggins as usually he had to limit the damage, but on La Covitalla he already showed what he can do.

Nibali, he holds the best cards. Again the master of limiting the damage everywhere and riding consistently, but with a new twist. He rides offensively on the long climbs. We've seen him attack on Sierra Nevada and La Covitalla. On the last climb he underestimated the wind and paid for it in the final meters. But you can count on him to attack again on wednesday... but can he definately drop Wiggins, Froome, Mollema and the others? So far he couldn't.

As for Dan Martin, Igor Anton, Scarponi... I don't see it happening anymore, either too far back (Martin) or not in the right shape (Anton, Scarponi).

Then there is still Menchov, Cobo, Zubeldia, Vandenbroeck.. they might still content for top 5/top 10 places instead of unknown factors like Kessiakoff, Mollema etc, but so far they seem weaker.

Great analysis, Lo Squalo is in the driver position, but you forgot the only climber who has a shot of winning (remote though), non other than Joaquin, El Purito, Rodriguez, a.k.a. JRod! I'd like Wiggins to do well, but he will fade out, primarily because of his preparation for a 3-week race after his TdF crash. I want to write Menchov off, but the enigmatic guy keeps coming back...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I also remember now Froome was in good position in Suisse as well, or at least he did 1 very good mountain stage. And then the next mountain stage he finished in the grupetto.