Rest Day 1 Round Up - la Vuelta 2011

[theyoungest]

Does anyone know what the hell happened to Scarponi these past two days? From looking like a genuine contender halfway up La Covatilla, and even attacking, to losing 5 minutes in two days to the other contenders. That's a bit more than just blowing up.

The complete disappearance of this podium favourite is a bit unsung, IMO.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Then there is still Menchov, Cobo, Zubeldia, Vandenbroeck.. they might still content for top 5/top 10 places instead of unknown factors like Kessiakoff, Mollema etc, but so far they seem weaker.

How on earth does VDB seem weaker? He only lost time in his bad TT (as feared and somewhat expected). Most likely he 's the one to grow further into the coming weeks. Where as a lot of the other guys are likely to fade. Dismissing the bonus times and TT, he would be second at this moment. So you're basing this solely off his TT then? I wouldn't say it's a matter of being weaker, but a question of is he actually strong enough to take time back?

 

[bicing]

This Vuelta feels like generational change. Here you had Menchov, Scarponi, Rodriguez, Anton, (Sastre), and Kloden all vying for the title.

Now at the first rest day we see Froome, Wiggins, Kessiakoff, Fuglsang, Mollema, Brajkovic, dominating the top spots whereas the traditional contenders have been riding themselves into obscurity. To me this is tottally weird, for the last 3-4 years of following GTs it's the traditional top guns dominating the top, with 1-2 dropping off and being replaced by another 1-2. Strangely and regretably, it's giving me an isolating feeling.

I guess if you were a follower of any of those new generation riders you'd be truly thrilled, like I was for Gadret in this year's Giro, so I am glad the Dutchies and the PommyBasards are enjoying a wonderful GT. I come to the point where I have to wonder who to cheer for? Probably the old guard, now the underdogs...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

How on earth does VDB seem weaker? He only lost time in his bad TT (as feared and somewhat expected). Most likely he 's the one to grow further into the coming weeks. Where as a lot of the other guys are likely to fade. Dismissing the bonus times and TT, he would be second at this moment. So you're basing this solely off his TT then? I wouldn't say it's a matter of being weaker, but a question of is he actually strong enough to take time back?

VDB seems weaker because of what happened on the last KM on La Covitalla. Get off your horse. He was even passed by Poels and Seeldraeyers for crying out loud.

 

[sublimit]

I also remember now Froome was in good position in Suisse as well, or at least he did 1 very good mountain stage. And then the next mountain stage he finished in the grupetto.

Yes, this is uncharted territory for him now but we know he can ride for 8 days at the very least now.

Considering Sky made such a mess of the TTT he could be further in front but yes I expect him to blow sometime next week. Hopefully he can hang on for a top15 or 10 or whatever.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

VDB seems weaker because of what happened on the last KM on La Covitalla. Get off your horse. He was even passed by Poels and Seeldraeyers for crying out loud.

Says the guy jumping cross topic on me for saying Mollema won't win. lol

So, because he lost 9 seconds to Nibali and 13 to Wiggins. Yet you claim Nibali is in pole position? How do you see him losing 22 seconds to JVDB two days before? Weaker than weak? Great analysis. Also, keeping in mind the Vuelta lasts half as long (3 weeks) as he had time to recover from his crash before (6 weeks) and is likely to improve, if anything.

 

[Arnout]

This Vuelta feels like generational change. Here you had Menchov, Scarponi, Rodriguez, Anton, (Sastre), and Kloden all vying for the title.

Now at the first rest day we see Froome, Wiggins, Kessiakoff, Fuglsang, Mollema, Brajkovic, dominating the top spots whereas the traditional contenders have been riding themselves into obscurity. To me this is tottally weird, for the last 3-4 years of following GTs it's the traditional top guns dominating the top, with 1-2 dropping off and being replaced by another 1-2. Strangely and regretably, it's giving me an isolating feeling.

I guess if you were a follower of any of those new generation riders you'd be truly thrilled, like I was for Gadret in this year's Giro, so I am glad the Dutchies and the PommyBasards are enjoying a wonderful GT. I come to the point where I have to wonder who to cheer for? Probably the old guard, now the underdogs...

I'm sorry but I think you also know guys like Kessiakoff and Brajkovic didn't have any impact on the race so far and were dropped on every ascent. They won't stand a chance of winning this.

Still think it will be Nibali. The last mountainstage was ideal for Wiggins, a single ascent of appr. an hour is doable for a time triallist, he will have more difficulties with more mountains in one day and consecutive mountain stages.

Anton is not a generation change (he is 28), he is just in appalling form for one reason or another.

 

[sublimit]

why is that ?




young ? he is 26, granted he isn't old and he has never shown much promise in terms of a GT, but guys like mollema are younger.

I don't think froome will hold it together for the three weeks, but we'll see.

Na probably not, but I've always seen him as having potential as domestique on the lines of a Kiryenka maybe not as good on the climbs but similar type of rider- Kind of a solid all rounder but with the ability to climb and TT.

Obviously he has a long way to go but showing some promise.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Nibali is the favourite but only really by virtue of his proven GT pedigree - you know he's not going to fade after the rest day(s) whereas there are major doubts with some of the others about whether they can handle 3 weeks

What Nibali seems to be missing this year is a bit of punch which is a big miss in a race with significant time bonuses. Based only on what we've seen in this race Mollema looks the best. If (big if) they continue at the same level then Mollema will overhaul Nibali

 

[Nick C.]

I'll be the next in line to say this is Nibali's to lose. We will see how some of the young talent we have heard about like Fuglsang and Mollema fare. A little pleasantly surprised by Fuglsgang not spitting the bit like he did the last time he was the GC rider for the Vuelta. The Sky duo look strong. As for Purito unless he can put minutes (1-3) into the field at Angrilu is there anywhere else where gaps at the line can be made of more than dozens of seconds?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'm pretty sure angry lu is gonna destroy the pretenders.

Goota expect the likes of jrod, vbd and such to do well here.

 

[theyoungest]

As for Purito unless he can put minutes (1-3) into the field at Angrilu is there anywhere else where gaps at the line can be made of more than dozens of seconds?

Yes, the day before:

 

[Gingerale]

Does anyone know what the hell happened to Scarponi these past two days? From looking like a genuine contender halfway up La Covatilla, and even attacking, to losing 5 minutes in two days to the other contenders. That's a bit more than just blowing up.

The complete disappearance of this podium favourite is a bit unsung, IMO.

my guess and only a guess, as i don't have any other information after the crash than was already reported, but taking a chain ring to the leg and going down hard has played its part in scarpone's performance. i watched the crash several times to try and see how hard nibali went down too. it's tough to make out what happened to nibali. he said he slept fine the night before stage 8. the crash was a piece of bad luck for nibs and scarpone.

about crash on stage 7 - thinking without the crash nibali wouldn't have lost as many seconds on stage 9 to martin and would have had more in the legs to at least keep up with wiggins.

my favorite stage was the descent and finish with liquigas and lastras; and of course, stage 9 from the time taaramae attacked to the thrilling dan martin / mollema finish

 

[Descender]

Nibali might try one of his descent attacks on the San Lorenzo climb on stage 14 (the Ancares descent is more technical and steep, but it's 60km from the finish).

Angliru ought to be for JRod what the ITT was for Wiggins: the tailor-made stage. He is still in with a chance, but I believe he is too inconsistent to win a GT.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Nibali might try one of his descent attacks on the San Lorenzo climb on stage 14 (the Ancares descent is more technical and steep, but it's 60km from the finish).

Angliru ought to be for JRod what the ITT was for Wiggins: the tailor-made stage. He is still in with a chance, but I believe he is too inconsistent to win a GT.

Nibali's decending could also be a very good defense on that stage, if someone goes really hard up the climb he can ride up at his own pace and catch them on the descent. I might be wrong, I am sure nobody will hesitate to tell me, but I don't think any of the other top contenders are nearly as good as Nibali down hill.

 

[movingtarget]

I thought VDB would have done better in the time trial. Anton, Scarponi and Rodriguez have been disappointing in their lack of consistency. Not sure if Scarponi has been effected by his crash. Maybe he was hurt worse than Nibali ? At he beginning of the race I really though Menchov, Nibali, Scarponi and VDB would vie for the win. I still think Rodriguez is more a stage hunter and Anton is just inconsistent. Will be interesting to see if Mollema, Kessiakoff and Fuglsang can maintain the pace. This is a very different race compared to the Giro and TDF. It's so up and down that no single rider looks like he is superior to the others in the top 10 or so riders. This race probably won't be decided until the final difficult climb.

 

[Descender]

Nibali's decending could also be a very good defense on that stage, if someone goes really hard up the climb he can ride up at his own pace and catch them on the descent. I might be wrong, I am sure nobody will hesitate to tell me, but I don't think any of the other top contenders are nearly as good as Nibali down hill.

Especially seeing as Wiggins, his main rival on paper, has been very tentative downhill since his TdF crash.

 

[Gotland]

Nibali's decending could also be a very good defense on that stage, if someone goes really hard up the climb he can ride up at his own pace and catch them on the descent. I might be wrong, I am sure nobody will hesitate to tell me, but I don't think any of the other top contenders are nearly as good as Nibali down hill.

Fuglsang is a great descender. But he is worse then nibali in the climb.

 

[meandmygitane]

I'm sorry but I think you also know guys like Kessiakoff and Brajkovic didn't have any impact on the race so far and were dropped on every ascent. They won't stand a chance of winning this.

Kessiakoff:
Stage 4: Was in the bunch with Nibali and Wiggins.
Stage 5: Took 4s on Nibali, took 13s on Wiggins.
Stage 8: Took 17s on Nibali, equal to Wiggins
Stage 9: Dropped 1s to Nibali, dropped 8s to Wiggins.

Looks pretty solid to me. Disagree?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kessiakoff:
Stage 4: Was in the bunch with Nibali and Wiggins.
Stage 5: Took 4s on Nibali, took 13s on Wiggins.
Stage 8: Took 17s on Nibali, equal to Wiggins
Stage 9: Dropped 1s to Nibali, dropped 8s to Wiggins.

Looks pretty solid to me. Disagree?

You have a good point, he was one of the most consistent after this guy

Stage 4: Same bunch as Nibali, Wiggins, Kessiakoff
Stage 5: First of the group Kessiakoff, took 4s on Nibali, took 13s on Wiggins
Stage 8: Took 6s on Kessiakoff and Wiggins, took 23s on Nibali +8 bonification seconds on all of them
Stage 9: Took 11s on Nibali, 12s to Kessiakoff and 4 on Wiggins +12 bonification seconds on all of them

 

[meandmygitane]

You have a good point, he was one of the most consistent after this guy

Stage 4: Same bunch as Nibali, Wiggins, Kessiakoff
Stage 5: First of the group Kessiakoff, took 4s on Nibali, took 13s on Wiggins
Stage 8: Took 6s on Kessiakoff and Wiggins, took 23s on Nibali +8 bonification seconds on all of them
Stage 9: Took 11s on Nibali, 12s to Kessiakoff and 4 on Wiggins +12 bonification seconds on all of them

I agree, Bauke Mollema may be the biggest favourite if he continues as he have done (I hold Nibali and Wiggins [think Wiggins went to hard in the beginning of the TT] highest as of now.).

Really there is a bunch of contenders for the GC, the vuelta is wide open.
I think top 14, up to Rodriguez, can (loose defintion) win. Maybe Scarponi also but then he must do a complete turn-around after the last two days.

My favourites as of now to win the GC is:

1. Nibali
2. Wiggins
3. Mollema
4. Froome (but I have my doubts between SKY priorities and lasting 3 weeks)
5. Kessiakoff
6. Fuglsang (lost time on stage 9)
7. Menchov? Don't know really.

Tomorrow we will get so much answers:

1. Who came out of the rest day in good shape?
2. For who was the TT results influenced by TT-skill, fatigue or rising form?

EDIT: I'm reposting this in the who will win thread also.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think Nibali can do better than he did but he underestimated the headwind on La Covitalle.
Same goes for Wiggins who buried himself to distance the rest. Mollema was, yes i agree, wheelsucking his way to a good GC.

But even he knows he can't do that all Vuelta long. Eventually he'll have to attack or react to attacks if he wants to win

 

[profff]

last week is very easy, as it happens often at the vuelta, to allow many contenders to prepare the worlds.
normally tour and giro are decided in the third week and ability to recover and consistency play a great role.
in this vuelta , everything can be decided by the end of the second week, and this leaves the race open to outsiders and people with less gt experience.
this could be good for people like kessiskoff, froome, flugslang, whi never scored in GT and not in favour to people like menchow, nibali, vdb2 and maybe mollema , who had a good third weelk in 2010 giro.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Nibali might try one of his descent attacks on the San Lorenzo climb on stage 14 (the Ancares descent is more technical and steep, but it's 60km from the finish).

Angliru ought to be for JRod what the ITT was for Wiggins: the tailor-made stage. He is still in with a chance, but I believe he is too inconsistent to win a GT.

What I'd really love for the Ancares stage is a Liquigas ambush, a bit like the legendary Saeco bruising on the way to Falzès that gave Cunego his Giro win - stick a couple of strong men in the breakaway that day, and then have Nibali attack on the descent of Ancares, maybe with Capecchi, whereupon his men wait for him and have a go at TTTing their way in.

With Farrapona and Anglirú the following two days it's a big risk for likely not enough reward, but it would seriously be an awesome day's racing and really stretch Sky's resources (assuming they defend the jersey on La Manzaneda) given their main help would likely have to be from Geox, who aren't built for flat stage powering, and Katyusha, who toasted their men for most of week 1.

 

[Parrulo]

What I'd really love for the Ancares stage is a Liquigas ambush, a bit like the legendary Saeco bruising on the way to Falzès that gave Cunego his Giro win - stick a couple of strong men in the breakaway that day, and then have Nibali attack on the descent of Ancares, maybe with Capecchi, whereupon his men wait for him and have a go at TTTing their way in.

With Farrapona and Anglirú the following two days it's a big risk for likely not enough reward, but it would seriously be an awesome day's racing and really stretch Sky's resources (assuming they defend the jersey on La Manzaneda) given their main help would likely have to be from Geox, who aren't built for flat stage powering, and Katyusha, who toasted their men for most of week 1.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFxY-0FvjKs

epic stage