Richie Porte Discussion Thread.

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

LRP to win the Dauphine?

or holding back for the Tour?

The funny part is that I saw at least one bookie with lower odds for LRP than Aru for the Tour.

No duh! Aru is a proven GT winner, Porte has hardly done anything in GTs.

Its pretty simple; Porte has climbed and time trialed better than Aru, but needs to put it together, while Aru is one of the most consistent riders. In other words, some might be lead to believe that Porte's chance of winning the Tour (me included) is higher than Aru's, while Aru ending in top-5 or top-10 obviously is way more likely compared to Porte.

Porte has an extremely high ceiling and even tho some might assess his chances of winning the Tour better than Aru, a h2h between the two will most likely be heavily Aru-favored due to his consistency.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

LRP to win the Dauphine?

or holding back for the Tour?

The funny part is that I saw at least one bookie with lower odds for LRP than Aru for the Tour.

No duh! Aru is a proven GT winner, Porte has hardly done anything in GTs.

Its pretty simple; Porte has climbed and time trialed better than Aru, but needs to put it together, while Aru is one of the most consistent riders. In other words, some might be lead to believe that Porte's chance of winning the Tour (me included) is higher than Aru's, while Aru ending in top-5 or top-10 obviously is way more likely compared to Porte.

Porte has an extremely high ceiling and even tho some might assess his chances of winning the Tour better than Aru, a h2h between the two will most likely be heavily Aru-favored due to his consistency.

I think it's simple as well.
Porte is guaranteed a bad day in a GT. A "high ceiling" means nothing if you can't keep it for 3 weeks.

 

[Jancouver]

My favorite thread pop up again

Anyway, I hope that he will do well and the best scenario would be if he would win the Dauphine because after that I would have a real fun participating in the debate about his TdF chances

TLMRP FTW

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

LRP to win the Dauphine?

or holding back for the Tour?

The funny part is that I saw at least one bookie with lower odds for LRP than Aru for the Tour.

No duh! Aru is a proven GT winner, Porte has hardly done anything in GTs.

Its pretty simple; Porte has climbed and time trialed better than Aru, but needs to put it together, while Aru is one of the most consistent riders. In other words, some might be lead to believe that Porte's chance of winning the Tour (me included) is higher than Aru's, while Aru ending in top-5 or top-10 obviously is way more likely compared to Porte.

Porte has an extremely high ceiling and even tho some might assess his chances of winning the Tour better than Aru, a h2h between the two will most likely be heavily Aru-favored due to his consistency.

Bookmakers weigh up the risk. Porte has always had talent and the believers think one day he will break out and do something special. Does anyone sincerely believe that Aru will win the Tour ? When Evans won the Tour after two bad years in 2009 and 2010 as far as Tour results went he was 33-1 to win the Tour in 2011 and he duly won it. Even after a great start to the season in 2011 and previous podiums in the Tour bookmakers simply did not think he could win the Tour. Bookmakers sometimes get it right and often get it wrong. Porte is like the racehorse that cleans up in weaker races but never delivers in more important ones so he is one bookmakers are wary of but time is running out for him and for TJVG. Like SK in this year's Giro who may never have a better chance to win a GT. Porte has never even got to that position in a GT so he has a lot to prove to himself and his team.

 

[movingtarget]

He climbed and TTed at top GC level on several occasions. What he needs to do it keep is together for 3 weeks

He's the perfect super domestique. He needs to embrace his role in life and target week long stage races and work for GT riders.

Why would Porte work for TJVG ? The whole reason BMC picked him up is because they wanted an alternative to TJVG who is not getting closer to winning a GT. That said I think that whichever one of the two drops too far back on GC will end up working for the other. TJVG is a bit like Uran. He seems to struggle keep his health together over three weeks but of course if that is combined with bad luck and falls there is not much that can be done about it. Porte's Giro debacle would be difficult to repeat. His team made a mess of that and whatever motivation Porte had simply went out the window. His race was done at that stage.

 

[dacooley]

that's just another circle of confirmation bias. if one either cheers for contador/nibali/quintana or dislikes sky, for sure one will always handle porte extremely sceptically solely on emotional level. on the other hand, those who say to sky 'yes' will be hoping for the best for LRP to the bitter end.

 

[HelloDolly]

Richie will win the Dauphine

 

[Hayabusa]

I see Richie on the podium alongside one of Contador/Froome and a random third cyclist who will perform well (and then show nothing in the TDF).

 

[vedrafjord]

Re: Re:

LRP to win the Dauphine?

or holding back for the Tour?

The funny part is that I saw at least one bookie with lower odds for LRP than Aru for the Tour.

There's this idea that bookie's odds are an actual unbiased probability whereas they're partially a market so if e.g. there's a bookie in Australia they'll take a lot of bets on LRP to win and fewer on Aru, so the bookies will lower LRP's odds to cover their arses if he does win.

 

[Singer01]

I really hope he can hold it together because I like the idea of 6 people with at least a decent chance of winning at the start (big 3 plus pinot, aru and porte) + maybe landa if froome crashes out early.

It makes it far more interesting for the casual observer (by casual i don't mean someone who is indifferent to the race, more someone who is indifferent to who wins, as long as its a good race).

 

[yaco]

Should go close to winning Dauphine - TDF is another matter.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

My favorite thread pop up again

Anyway, I hope that he will do well and the best scenario would be if he would win the Dauphine because after that I would have a real fun participating in the debate about his TdF chances

TLMRP FTW

Haha! Yeah it will be fun to watch the LRP hopefuls get excited as he will do well in the Dauphine then the hype for the TDF kicks in and he falls apart over the 3 weeks

 

[DBotero]

Re: Re:

My favorite thread pop up again

Anyway, I hope that he will do well and the best scenario would be if he would win the Dauphine because after that I would have a real fun participating in the debate about his TdF chances

TLMRP FTW

Haha! Yeah it will be fun to watch the LRP hopefuls get excited as he will do well in the Dauphine then the hype for the TDF kicks in and he falls apart over the 3 weeks

Nah this time he'll make it.Porte will show everybody he can hold his shape for 3 weeks

 

[Miburo]

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Pinot is strong enough to fight for a podium spot in every one week race, he's not that far behind Porte.
When it comes to gts Porte shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Aru and Pinot, but the Porte is a gc contender will once again start after the Dauphine.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

Pinot only has one podium right? And that in a tour where Contador and Froome crashed out And quintana wasn't there.

I agree with Aru but not with Pinot.

 

[TomLPC]

Can't wait for him to drop everyone with that *** eating grin on the first mountain stage

I mean, he will probably drop like a stone the next day but the reaction here will be funny as usual

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

Pinot only has one podium right? And that in a tour where Contador and Froome crashed out And quintana wasn't there.

I agree with Aru but not with Pinot.

1 week stage races: Porte>Pinot>Aru
Grand Tours: Aru>Pinot>Porte

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

Pinot only has one podium right? And that in a tour where Contador and Froome crashed out And quintana wasn't there.

I agree with Aru but not with Pinot.

1 week stage races: Porte>Pinot>Aru
Grand Tours: Aru>Pinot>Porte

I think Porte can do well in the Tour this year and I will go out on a limb and say he will finish ahead of Aru and Pinot. If I am wrong so be it !

 

[Jelantik]

Porte did a great ride today. He was even faster than Froome. So that must be a great feeling to live up to his billing of why BMC hired him. Now he can put his duck in the row he might have a chance to win it. Or is Froome's engine not hot enough yet (he said he got no leg, but yet he posted the fastest time, before contador smashed his time), so he got beaten by his old domestique?

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

Pinot only has one podium right? And that in a tour where Contador and Froome crashed out And quintana wasn't there.

I agree with Aru but not with Pinot.

Pinot also has a top 10 in the Tour to go with that podium, a couple of stage wins and a 7th at the Vuelta. To me he is well ahead of Porte when it comes to GT's. 1 week races are a different story

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

Pinot only has one podium right? And that in a tour where Contador and Froome crashed out And quintana wasn't there.

I agree with Aru but not with Pinot.

Pinot also has a top 10 in the Tour to go with that podium, a couple of stage wins and a 7th at the Vuelta. To me he is well ahead of Porte when it comes to GT's. 1 week races are a different story

As has been noted various times, the reason Porte is mentioned alongside Aru and Pinot is due to his top-level, his ceiling, the performances that Pinot and Aru haven't shown they are capable off despite his consistency. Everybody knows he hasn't done anything in GT's GC-wise, but he simply has so much upside that he is deemed to have equally/even greater chances than Pinot/Aru to win a Tour.

So no, it really isn't baffling. Tour 2016 will tell a lot about Porte, no excuses, but until then, he is still the 4th-6th most likely to win the Tour. And probably the 4th.

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

He's top class in one week races. Even this year, he was pretty good.

Aru and Pinot shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Porte in one week races.

Yep he is a absolute top shelf 1 week racer which is perfectly fine but keeps chasing some type of GT success, mentioning him alongside Aru or Pinot is just baffling

Pinot only has one podium right? And that in a tour where Contador and Froome crashed out And quintana wasn't there.

I agree with Aru but not with Pinot.

Pinot also has a top 10 in the Tour to go with that podium, a couple of stage wins and a 7th at the Vuelta. To me he is well ahead of Porte when it comes to GT's. 1 week races are a different story

As has been noted various times, the reason Porte is mentioned alongside Aru and Pinot is due to his top-level, his ceiling, the performances that Pinot and Aru haven't shown they are capable off despite his consistency. Everybody knows he hasn't done anything in GT's GC-wise, but he simply has so much upside that he is deemed to have equally/even greater chances than Pinot/Aru to win a Tour.

So no, it really isn't baffling. Tour 2016 will tell a lot about Porte, no excuses, but until then, he is still the 4th-6th most likely to win the Tour. And probably the 4th.

No he really isn't 4th-6th most likely to win the Tour, I know we are talking about his top level but I'm judging his top level over a 3 week period which is how to rate his Tour chances

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yes, he IS the 4th-6th most likely to win the Tour objectively. You are being subjective