Rider(s) to watch in 2011

[Libertine Seguros]

Przemyslaw Niemiec definetly has potential to win KOM jersey , but i think he would not do it because he will help Scarponi in mountains . Winning KOM jersey its long time process , and Niemiec has very good climbing abilities , it will be more usefull to a team if he will help Scarponi . Instead of KOM jersey Lampre-ISD can give him an opportunity to win a stage . I think he can win stage on Giro .

Just imagine Lampre-ISD Giro line-up : Scarponi , Marzanno , Kashechkin , Niemiec , Bertagnolli , and may be Di Luca (there are rumors that he will be in Lampre-ISD)

But the thing is, with the Giro, the KOM is an odd beast. Very few points are available, and big points are available to winners of the mountains compared to second. Win a MTF or a couple of 1st cat climbs and you are suddenly a major contender; if you want to do it by collecting the cat.2 and 3 climbs like Lloyd and Wegmann you have to be out there every day; Garzelli on the other hand went on one big break and that was enough to put him into a lead that all he had to do was satisfactorily defend for the rest of the race.

Stage 15 has two climbs that will be at least cat.2, then the Cima Coppi (20 points available), the cat.1 Passo Fedaia (10 points available), then an MTF (15 points available). Hell, Niemiec could just pick up a couple of cat.2 or 3 climbs in week 1 as I mentioned above, then go on the rampage in that stage if Scarponi has enough useful helpers with him, and come away with the jersey.

And yes, he is going to be helping Scarponi throughout. But on stages like 11, Scarponi won't need his full mountain train, and a guy like Niemiec can accumulate points in a stage like that. It's what he does. Leonardo Piepoli won the KOM in 2007 despite killing himself for Simoni, and handing over not one but two mountaintop victories to teammates (Zonc to Simoni and Tre Cime di Lavaredo to Riccò), so it's far from impossible to win it whilst a teammate does the GC duty. Especially if di Luca rides, though I don't think Zomegnan will want him there. He'll be hypocritical if he lets him ride considering he 'quarantined' Riccò and Sella this year.

 

[El Pistolero]

If Fränk Schleck could time trial like Contador he could've won the Tour in 2008 or get very close to it.

So, his 2009 Tour can't be called a fluke.

 

[Parrulo]

If Fränk Schleck could time trial like Contador he could've won the Tour in 2008 or get very close to it.

So, his 2009 Tour can't be called a fluke.

man hide. saying that puts DT in real life killing mode ;_;

 

[Kvinto]

Przemyslaw Niemiec definetly has potential to win KOM jersey , but i think he would not do it because he will help Scarponi in mountains . Winning KOM jersey its long time process , and Niemiec has very good climbing abilities , it will be more usefull to a team if he will help Scarponi . Instead of KOM jersey Lampre-ISD can give him an opportunity to win a stage . I think he can win stage on Giro .

Just imagine Lampre-ISD Giro line-up : Scarponi , Marzanno , Kashechkin , Niemiec , Bertagnolli , and may be Di Luca (there are rumors that he will be in Lampre-ISD)

Many riders have a potential to win KOM jersey but very few of them plan this before GT's start. They usually come into the break riding for the stage win, gain some mountain points and then think "why not?" For Mat Lloyd such a stage was #6 finishing in Marina di Carrara where he won from a long break (with Rubens Bertogliati) and suddenly became the KOM. Its the first way. The second is the way Stefano Garzelli won the KOM jersey in 2009. He was strong, he was very strong, he sould have been riding for podium, i'm sure of this. But disaster has came Alpe di Siusi stage (#5), he had the bad day and lose more than 5 minutes (he is one of my favourite riders so it was big disappointment for me)... Only then he decided to ride for the KOM. But he also could finish 7th in the general classification losing only 8:43 to Menchov.
So I don't think it's a right time to discuss someones chances for KOM jersey.

Then Di Luca. Yea, there are rumours but for me it's no way. What can he objective? Giro and Ardennes. Zomegnan will never accept his participation in 2011 Giro. Ardennes? But what will Cunego say? He just accepted he's no more a GT contender, he wouldn't be happy to see Di Luca in Lampre. But if neither Giro nor Ardennes, then Di Luca doesn't need Lampre-ISD at all.

 

[Christian]

2009, the year Andy and Alberto almost went backwards because they had slow teammates in the group behind that they (at least Andy) wanted on the podium.

In an interview with Radio DNR Andy actually stated that he had talked to Contador that the two of them should work together on Mont Ventoux. Contador however refused, because he had Armstrong in the group. Of course he would still have to go with Andy, he just wouldn't collaborate. Andy then decided not to attack, because since he couldn't drop Contador in the forrest, there was no way he could have dropped him in the final 6 kms in the wind. That means he would have dragged Contador to the line, and Contador would surely not have passed up a prestigious stage victory served to him on a silver platter.

So actually it was exactly the opposite of what you say.

 

[ISDfan]

Especially if di Luca rides, though I don't think Zomegnan will want him there.

Di luca told to La Reppublica , that he had private conversation with Zomegnan after his words that he dont want to see Di Luca on Giro-2011 . And Danilo said that Zomegnan allowed him to participate in all RCS races including Giro . And after that killer said that he want to be on Giro 2011 . Di Luca and Scarponi can be two team leaders on Giro .

 

[theyoungest]

Di luca told to La Reppublica , that he had private conversation with Zomegnan after his words that he dont want to see Di Luca on Giro-2011 . And Danilo said that Zomegnan allowed him to participate in all RCS races including Giro . And after that killer said that he want to be on Giro 2011 . Di Luca and Scarponi can be two team leaders on Giro .

Something similar was said about Ricco for this year's Giro di Lombardia, that he'd been promised an invite, but look what happened.

 

[ISDfan]

Something similar was said about Ricco for this year's Giro di Lombardia, that he'd been promised an invite, but look what happened.

There is one main difference between last year Lampre and Vacansoleil . Vacansoleil was pct team and they need invitation to all major races , and Lampre is pro-tour team. If Di Luca will choose Lampre he will have an opportunity to participate in all major races with out asking invitation .

 

[Libertine Seguros]

There is one main difference between last year Lampre and Vacansoleil . Vacansoleil was pct team and they need invitation to all major races , and Lampre is pro-tour team. If Di Luca will choose Lampre he will have an opportunity to participate in all major races with out asking invitation .

Not necessarily. The teams could be threatened with ejection should they bring people. ASO threatened Caisse d'Epargne with withdrawal of their invite if they continued with their plan to have Valverde race at the '09 Tour, for example, but they couldn't stop him riding ProTour events because Caisse's invite was compulsory.

As we know, RCS aren't really sold on the ProTeam idea, after Zomegnan pointed out the whole World Tour thing had gone through with the assumption that RCS would agree, which they didn't; he wasn't even consulted. Way to lose the guy's faith.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Besides those already mentioned, I'd like to add the following:

Hutarovich
Galimzyanov
Cedric Pineau

 

[Kvinto]

Yes, after departure of McEwen and Napolitano Denis Galimzyanov will be the main sprinting hope of Katusha, it'll be interesting to see

 

[profff]

i do not believe that di luca will be allowed to run the giro this year
zome looked very angry with him and i do not think that he will change his habits towards the people sanctioned for doping: they have to loose two editions of giro

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Yes, after departure of McEwen and Napolitano Denis Galimzyanov will be the main sprinting hope of Katusha, it'll be interesting to see

Why the sarcasm?

 

[Kvinto]

Why the sarcasm?

Why do you think it was a sarcasm? I'm really interest in what Denis can do next year. He showed his potential during Vuelta, it was the good season for him... He's still young, I think he'll improve in 2011... What's wrong?

 

[ILovecycling]

Hausler
Anton
Boonen(without injury)
Gilbert
Sagan
Ricco(I cant wait)
EBH
Kreuziger(at Giro with great team of Astana,he could ride a big ride)
Phinney
Schleck A.(TOur title)
Stybar-definitely
Van Garderen
Velits P.
Valls(in Dauphine or something like that)
Scarponi(interesting rider in 2011)

I think these riders are possible

 

[The Hitch]

Oh yeah

Sammy Sanchez.

No contador or Valverde, this is his big season. And without those 2, he is probably the 2nd best gt rider out there. + great at classics.

His big season indeed.

Yes, after departure of McEwen and Napolitano Denis Galimzyanov will be the main sprinting hope of Katusha, it'll be interesting to see

Why the sarcasm?

Why do you think it was a sarcasm?

Because you incliuded the rolleyes symbol - at the end of your post.

 

[Kvinto]

Because you incliuded the rolleyes symbol - at the end of your post.

I have some different view for what these symbols mean. For me "" looks like some very thinking face that looks for the answers for its questions... looks somewhere above... It not looks like sarcasm, you'll never make me change my mind By the way: " " - some merry and a little bit sarcastic face

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I have some different view for what these symbols mean. For me "" looks like some very thinking face that looks for the answers for its questions... looks somewhere above... It not looks like sarcasm, you'll never make me change my mind By the way: " " - some merry and a little bit sarcastic face

Oh, yeah it was just the "sarcastic" smiley which made me think that you were being sarcastic but I guess you wasn't then

 

[Aguirre]

Excellent thread!

I'm looking at Romain Sicard to podium at a major weeklong stage race.

Igor Anton to win a stage of the Giro and then win the Vuelta.

I'm in hurry so I'll finish up later.

I expect a better year for the basque team, Mikel Nieve is someone to watch too

 

[El Pistolero]

Oh yeah

Sammy Sanchez.

No contador or Valverde, this is his big season. And without those 2, he is probably the 2nd best gt rider out there. + great at classics.

Ivan Basso, Andy Schleck, Menchov(can make up his losses in the time trial even if there's only one long time trial) and Ricardo Ricco are better gt riders than Samu imo. I'm probably even forgetting some.

 

[The Hitch]

Ivan Basso, Andy Schleck, Menchov(can make up his losses in the time trial even if there's only one long time trial) and Ricardo Ricco are better gt riders than Samu imo. I'm probably even forgetting some.

It should be remembered that Samu broke his wrist, his ****** wrist on the day of the Tourmalet. To do a Tourmalet and a tt without a broken wrist is pretty painful, but you can be sure it subtracts largely from ones performance to ride it with a broken wrist.

Nonetheless he still put a few seconds into Menchov on that hill. I very much doubt he would have lost the full 4 minutes to Dennis if he had been all right.

Whether he would have been able to take 3rd from Menchov is debatable but next year the Tour has less tting where he loses to Menchov, and more mountains where he can woop Dennis.

In the Tour last year he was clearly the best of the rest. He stayed with Schleck on Morzine and the next day did his own 30k itt of climbing descending and flat, and still putting 1 minute into everyone else.

The only people who didnt do the Tour that might be better than him are Valverde who wont be there, and maybe Basso. Maybe Scarponi and Fuji too though i doubt it.

Also Sammy isnt that bad a tter really. He came 2nd in Toledo 25k and 6th in Valencia 30 k 2009 Vuelta tts, beating all the gc guys both times, including Valverde Evans and Basso.

So only Schleck is better.

 

[El Pistolero]

It should be remembered that Samu broke his wrist, his ****** wrist on the day of the Tourmalet. To do a Tourmalet and a tt without a broken wrist is pretty painful, but you can be sure it subtracts largely from ones performance to ride it with a broken wrist.

Nonetheless he still put a few seconds into Menchov on that hill. I very much doubt he would have lost the full 4 minutes to Dennis if he had been all right.

Whether he would have been able to take 3rd from Menchov is debatable but next year the Tour has less tting where he loses to Menchov, and more mountains where he can woop Dennis.

In the Tour last year he was clearly the best of the rest. He stayed with Schleck on Morzine and the next day did his own 30k itt of climbing descending and flat, and still putting 1 minute into everyone else.

The only people who didnt do the Tour that might be better than him are Valverde who wont be there, and maybe Basso. Maybe Scarponi and Fuji too though i doubt it.

Also Sammy isnt that bad a tter really. He came 2nd in Toledo 25k and 6th in Valencia 30 k 2009 Vuelta tts, beating all the gc guys both times, including Valverde Evans and Basso.

So only Schleck is better.

Well, you said GT rider and not Tour rider with only one time trial

Ricardo Ricco is someone who outclimbed Contador quite a few times during the Giro. And he still seems to be able to win pretty easily after his come back. So, if I had to take a gamble next season, I'd say Ricco is the second best climber in the peloton(ignoring Contador). Perhaps even the best you know, who knows? He's the rider I'm looking out for the most in 2011. I need someone to replace Contador for 1-2 years lol.

Menchov is hard to predict. Every year he has a different form. So it's hard to rate him second best, third best, etc.
But in the end he has won 3 GTs and Samu 0. They're both the same age, so no difference there.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Probably more in the box than out of the box, but I'm so keen to see how Rodriguez handles 2011, that I am still gonna name him. All the more since his name hardly ever falls here on the forum, right until we actually see him on screen, by which time we go, "oh yeah, Rodriguez!".

I was chuffed when he got out of Valverde's shadow and got a place at Katusha to do his own thing, but I never expected to see him emerge so strong throughout the year, with a very impressive Vuelta at the tail end of that. I always liked him, but that's where he made me a fan out of me.

It would be nice to see if 2011 proves to be another part of the curve, or if he has pretty much shown what he has got now.

Also curious if his showing last year will have an impact on the racing schedule they are preparing for him. I'm kinda fearing that the decent showing in 2010 in Tour and Vuelta is triggering focused planning and growing expectations at Katusha HQ. The first year free-ish reign under the radar, in classics and stage races, seemed to suit him well.

 

[The Hitch]

Well, you said GT rider and not Tour rider with only one time trial

Ricardo Ricco is someone who outclimbed Contador quite a few times during the Giro. And he still seems to be able to win pretty easily after his come back. So, if I had to take a gamble next season, I'd say Ricco is the second best climber in the peloton(ignoring Contador). Perhaps even the best you know, who knows? He's the rider I'm looking out for the most in 2011. I need someone to replace Contador for 1-2 years lol.

Menchov is hard to predict. Every year he has a different form. So it's hard to rate him second best, third best, etc.
But in the end he has won 3 GTs and Samu 0. They're both the same age, so no difference there.

Yes Menchov has won more gts, but then Damiano Cunego has won more gts than Michele Scarponi, who is 2 years older, and theres only one of them who is going to be competing in gts next year. Menchov was definately better 2005- 2009 in gts, and probably 2010.

But Samus palmares has been rising rapidly. Olympic champion, Vuelta runner up, now Tour de France contender, possibly a podium finish. Even at the beginning of the year, who would have seen him outclimbing everyone bar Al and Andy in the Tour. And he was quite decent in PN, PV, and Burgos as well. And he was a bit unlucky

So i think next year, at the Tour, which is what he and Menchov will target, if he comes in well prepared, and isnt as unlucky as last year, i can definately see him gaining big time on Menchov on Tourmalet stage, Sestrieres stage, Gallibier stage, and definately on Alpe d huez stage. Maybe he can challenge Schleck even, if Schleck has a puncture or something.

And yes, I didnt specify which gt, so you are right.

But still, this really is a rarity. A post by El Pistolero which i nod my head in agreement while reading. Really strange. This post actually makes sence

Ill take this opportunity, to say that despite our disputes, i do enjoy reading your posts and arguing with you, (even when you post absolute crap )

On the other hand, agreeing isnt as fun as disagreeing and we still have a few months of wondering till we reach the promise land.

Maybe we should start another Gilbert vs Cancellara thread

Nevertheless. A good post. well done

 

[nvpacchi]

Yes Menchov has won more gts, but then Damiano Cunego has won more gts than Michele Scarponi, who is 2 years older, and theres only one of them who is going to be competing in gts next year. Menchov was definately better 2005- 2009 in gts, and probably 2010.

But Samus palmares has been rising rapidly. Olympic champion, Vuelta runner up, now Tour de France contender, possibly a podium finish. Even at the beginning of the year, who would have seen him outclimbing everyone bar Al and Andy in the Tour. And he was quite decent in PN, PV, and Burgos as well. And he was a bit unlucky

So i think next year, at the Tour, which is what he and Menchov will target, if he comes in well prepared, and isnt as unlucky as last year, i can definately see him gaining big time on Menchov on Tourmalet stage, Sestrieres stage, Gallibier stage, and definately on Alpe d huez stage. Maybe he can challenge Schleck even, if Schleck has a puncture or something.

And yes, I didnt specify which gt, so you are right.

But still, this really is a rarity. A post by El Pistolero which i nod my head in agreement while reading. Really strange. This post actually makes sence

Ill take this opportunity, to say that despite our disputes, i do enjoy reading your posts and arguing with you, (even when you post absolute crap )

On the other hand, agreeing isnt as fun as disagreeing and we still have a few months of wondering till we reach the promise land.

Maybe we should start another Gilbert vs Cancellara thread

Nevertheless. A good post. well done

Andy Schleck beat Sanchez in 2010 Tour by 3:01, with 2:08 of that advantage coming from the cobbled stage. So without the third stage Schleck only put 53 seconds into Sanchez.

Picking him for the overall is not out of the question. The only thing Samu has against him is his team. Verdugo and Martinez will pace him for awhile, but they will never be with him when the pack is whittled down to 10 riders.

With a frantic descent into Pinerolo, an inspired climb up Alpe d'Huez (where he finished 2nd in 2008), and a good time trial in stage 20, there is a chance we could be seeing him in Yellow.

He's not the favorite, but there is not a whole lot separating him from ASchleck.