After Suisse he was definitely looking like best of the rest, and now a few of the "rest" have been removed from contention. So a podium is very possible
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The top 10 are all potential podium. WVA though? RU looks solid.
So far Uran looks most likely of anyone to finish 3rd after Pogacar and Carapaz. Not really convinced by anyone else so far (many through no fault of their own though)
Big Doopie
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he's there now. and no one knows his limits better than jagger.
Carapaz doesn't look to me like he's going to "most likely" finish ahead of Uran...
Well Jonas Vingegaard is one black horse for the podium, super tt'er and frame of a climber.
Only because of the first week. Carapaz is the only rider who has even been able to think about following Pogacar, while Uran has been the ninja of the Tour so far by an absolute mile.
Today he even has ataccked, although the TV just changed images...but that was Ok. I can even forgive he doesnt try to go for yellow, becouse he is very good, but Pogacar is from another planet, but it would be great if he beat Carapaz and Mas for the second place.., and it woudl be sad to do that without any attack.
He must think anyway to win le Tour...You never knows...Pogacar could have a bad day, He has been second once...he should try to win at least sometimes and take advantage of any bad moment of Pogacar.
He is going to have anyway very difficult to get the second place with Carapaz, and I think the only way to get it is putting more time to him some days..becouse is easy the ecuatorian put on him some others
He must think anyway to win le Tour...You never knows...Pogacar could have a bad day, He has been second once...he should try to win at least sometimes and take advantage of any bad moment of Pogacar.
He is going to have anyway very difficult to get the second place with Carapaz, and I think the only way to get it is putting more time to him some days..becouse is easy the ecuatorian put on him some others
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If Carapaz continues to try to follow Pogacar, he will finish behind Uran for certain.
Carapaz does need to be smarter, but he's also strong as we saw on the stage to La Grand Bornand
As far as I understand, being a ninja as much as possible is ususally a more efficient way to ride a GT than trying to follow a rider who is 2 levels above you and end up gaining no time. Trying to punch above your weight in the first week might leave you empty for the 3rd week.
If all you care about is your highest possible finish with the least risk, yes, of course it is.
But this is Carapaz, and he's riding for Ineos. They expect him to try and win overall and he's not going to stop trying either. He definitely does need to race smarter, but so far he's second strongest in the mountains.
This we don't know completely. He's trying most atm maybe, but goal is not here, it's at Paris.
Not saying his/Ineos tactics are wrong but many ways to skin the cat. Five guys at the same level with him at gc-standings with three of them clearly better in next tt, meaning he'll be 7-8th at the Paris, if ranking stays the same. Eat now, pay later.
But thumbs up here for Rigo again, very complete package when on his top form: sprinting, uphill, downhill, tt..
I don't think the evidence for that is overwhelming. Every time he tried to distance the others, he was caught back and stage 9 MTF was a perfect opporunity to ride away from the others if he was stronger but he didn't. He often raced as if he felt he was at least 2nd strongest but that doesn't mean his sensations were right. To me it seemed like he was basically on the same level with Uran, Mas and Vingegaard. But he expended the most energy for 0 time gain so I would not see being the only one thinking that he could follow Pogacar as a positive sign. Rujano was the only one who thought that he could follow Contador during first half of 2011 Giro but he didn't finish 2nd.
I don't discount him, of course, historically he tended to do well in 3rd week. But as for now, he has been is in the group fighting for 2nd rather than ahead of it.
Uran doesn't seem to have enough predatory instinct. I think he has the ability to win more, if only he would risk it.
I remember years ago he said in an interview that knowing his strengths and weaknesses he is not fancy of frenzy attacks if you are going to accomplish nothing but make fool of yourself.
(Not his exact words, mind you)
In another interview (2019 IIRC) he said that he "lost his explosiveness years ago".
So, he is very aware of his capabilities, whether we like it or not. Some may call it cowardice or being in the comfort zone.
And anyway, he is on the podium, as of now. And he will look for attacks when he thinks they will be really worth the risk.
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He has a sniper instinct. And doing long period investments again, as if he takes another second podium and anytime in the future those editions winners happen to be erased, he takes one or two yellows to his inventory, no?
Bump!
Informal training between Carapaz and Uran. What are the chances that the Tour could be in their hands!
I hope Uran has the same intensity to try a day make a difference than he had to chase Vingegard.
I cant believe a rider os his quality, who has had so bad luck along his career in key moments, who has been second already at le Tour and as well on the Giro..must be very happy been second, without the sensation to have rick sometimes to be the winner. He is gopod with good weather, Pogacar not at his best..there are momenst when you have to take advantage and try something.
He could wven win le Tour if pogacar has a very bad day or crash or something like that, but it would be a sad way to win. It would be better in his case to be third but trying something. I admit it has a big merit to be regular and to be strong the last week, but in his case h has been second once...
I cant believe a rider os his quality, who has had so bad luck along his career in key moments, who has been second already at le Tour and as well on the Giro..must be very happy been second, without the sensation to have rick sometimes to be the winner. He is gopod with good weather, Pogacar not at his best..there are momenst when you have to take advantage and try something.
He could wven win le Tour if pogacar has a very bad day or crash or something like that, but it would be a sad way to win. It would be better in his case to be third but trying something. I admit it has a big merit to be regular and to be strong the last week, but in his case h has been second once...
I understand the desire to see Uran attack. I would love for him to attack and win the Tour. You have to consider though, that he might be on his limit. He very likely is. The stage on Wednesday showed that. There is a far greater likelihood that his attack, when already at his limit, will result in him losing a podium spot than it will him winning the Tour. As you say, his only real chance to win is if Pogacar is on a bad day. Nothing Uran can do will cause Pogacar to have a bad day. The best he can do is be in a position to capitalize if that bad day materializes.
Sometimes you just aren’t good enough. As shown cases against Froome at his peak or Contador at 09 Tour and 11 Giro.
Weel, Uran is a differente rider than Contador. Contador had a big attack...but sometimes he was weaker than otjher contnders and he beated them by cleverness. I understand Uran look more to try a second place than to win. of course Pogacar is very strong..but you never Knows...I think he is not worse than Carapaz, but Carapaz if he can some day attack or will take advantage of oportunities.
Uran waited for Froome when SKY almost crash descending Bales..he had to attack at the begining of Peyresourde, it wanst bad luck for SKY, it was just his blame,..he would have won le Tour..and that it would have change his career at all. He use the most efficient way for him to be up, and it is ok, but till some point. This year at least he has attacked one day, and I hope he will do again.
I have followed every race since he started in pro cycling....and at the begining he attacked frecuenty...most of the times it didnt work...but maybe was bad luck or he didnt chose the best moment. Second in the Giro, second at the olimpic, second at the Giro, second at Cataluña. Suisse, 3 times podium at Lombardia...It is very meritable, but he need a big victory, or to have the sensation if he had the oportunity, he went for it.
I see Pogacar losing 2 minutes in a mountain stage and he most worried to just follow Vingegard than to put together more time on Pogacar... I hope to be wrong.
Uran waited for Froome when SKY almost crash descending Bales..he had to attack at the begining of Peyresourde, it wanst bad luck for SKY, it was just his blame,..he would have won le Tour..and that it would have change his career at all. He use the most efficient way for him to be up, and it is ok, but till some point. This year at least he has attacked one day, and I hope he will do again.
I have followed every race since he started in pro cycling....and at the begining he attacked frecuenty...most of the times it didnt work...but maybe was bad luck or he didnt chose the best moment. Second in the Giro, second at the olimpic, second at the Giro, second at Cataluña. Suisse, 3 times podium at Lombardia...It is very meritable, but he need a big victory, or to have the sensation if he had the oportunity, he went for it.
I see Pogacar losing 2 minutes in a mountain stage and he most worried to just follow Vingegard than to put together more time on Pogacar... I hope to be wrong.
Today he did ok, al least he attacked once. He used to be too much behind of the rest favourites when start the first attack... It is ok except just at the moment of that attack... You have to be close to that people, other way you have to close the gap.. So it is like 2 attacks for him today... But it is ok.. If he do second or even 3rd doing this, it has his merit and nothing to say... Good luck
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