Riis on Contador's & Schleck's Relative Strength

[2wheels]

We'll never know what might or might not have happened over the last 2 km of climb if Schleck hadn't had his mechanical. Contador was certainly reacting strongly to his move-- but what if Schleck had gone again, and again? What if Sanchez and Menchov had latched on to Schleck and Conta couldn't-- then a whole different scenario plays out on the descent.

It happened, it's over. It changed the race, just like Frank Schleck's crash and Evans's elbow. Wish it hadn't, because to honor the spirit of this particular thread, Andy and Alberto had both looked pretty un-droppable up to this point. I think Saxo was realistically only hoping to gain something like a minute today, and for more in the next couple of stages.

Maybe now Bjarne will actually attack on something other than just mountain stages. Then again, he seemed perfectly happy to race for second place when he had Basso riding for him in 2005; maybe he's still content with that.

 

[scribe]

We'll never know what might or might not have happened over the last 2 km of climb if Schleck hadn't had his mechanical. Contador was certainly reacting strongly to his move-- but what if Schleck had gone again, and again? What if Sanchez and Menchov had latched on to Schleck and Conta couldn't-- then a whole different scenario plays out on the descent.

It happened, it's over. It changed the race, just like Frank Schleck's crash and Evans's elbow. Wish it hadn't, because to honor the spirit of this particular thread, Andy and Alberto had both looked pretty un-droppable up to this point. I think Saxo was realistically only hoping to gain something like a minute today, and for more in the next couple of stages.

Maybe now Bjarne will actually attack on something other than just mountain stages. Then again, he seemed perfectly happy to race for second place when he had Basso riding for him in 2005; maybe he's still content with that.

I have always admired Riis strategies. I don't see them as just attacking in the mountains, even though that is the obvious place to work toward one. I also can't see them being happy for 2nd so much as resigned to it. But they had better ride awfully hard to at least hold onto 2nd place going forward.

 

[mr. tibbs]

The discussion above was whether AS could have built on and maintained a lead without his mechanical. I think he could have assuming he got onto one of the guys up the road. The point was not about him re-attacking if the crew had waited for him to get back on his bike to race.

The point of this thread was to point out that:

1-Schleck's attack wasn't sticking (according to Riis),

2-Contador is stronger overall than Schleck (Again, according to Riis--per the "equal in the mountains" business that I quoted in the OP, and also see the rest of the CN article for his talk about accounting for Schleck's guaranteed losses in the ITT), and

3-the Tour wasn't decided by this one moment.

I like Schleck and wish him all the best; unfortunately, Contador is stronger.

This may fall flat, but here goes:

In Paris-Roubaix this year, Boonen was giving it his all and working the field over the same way he did last year. After one surge, he drifted to the team car to get some food and stretch his back. Seeing Boonen vulnerable, Riis came over the radio: GOGOGO!--and Cancellara went.

Boonen was racing with heart, and you could argue (as I did) that Riis's tactic was kinda shady (hitting Boonen when he was at the team car behind a single file line of 15+ riders), but you still can't argue that, regardless of how it happened, the stronger man won. Cancellara was unstoppable this spring.

I think the same is true here with Contador/Schleck. This stage didn't decide the Tour, but Contador's overall strength advantage will.

EDIT: Ah, wait, the discussion with jaylew. My bad. Edited accordingly.

Also, boardhanger: imagine how much time Contador could take if it weren't raining during a TT. And imagine the standings now had Schleck not gained time on the stones. Counting time like that just doesn't add up.

 

[2wheels]

I have always admired Riis strategies. I don't see them as just attacking in the mountains, even though that is the obvious place to work toward one. I also can't see them being happy for 2nd so much as resigned to it. But they had better ride awfully hard to at least hold onto 2nd place going forward.

Well, I don't fault Riis for the original plan, because if Frank was still riding, I think Saxo would be in a very commanding position right now. But-- once he was gone, Saxo's remaining riders are stronger on the flats and small mountains; I just think they'd have better luck attacking Astana there. And I definitely don't think the team will be happy with second-- but I've always felt that Riis personally is a bit too conservative. Then again, nobody's paying me to be a DS.

 

[scribe]

Actually, the point of this thread (read: the discussion above) was to point out that

1-Schleck's attack wasn't sticking (according to Riis),

2-Contador is stronger overall than Schleck (Again, according to Riis--per the "equal in the mountains" business that I quoted in the OP, and also see the rest of the CN article for his talk about accounting for Schleck's guaranteed losses in the ITT), and

3-the Tour wasn't decided by this one moment.

I like Schleck and wish him all the best; unfortunately, Contador is stronger.

This may fall flat, but here goes:

In Paris-Roubaix this year, Boonen was giving it his all and working the field over the same way he did last year. After one surge, he drifted to the team car to get some food and stretch his back. Seeing Boonen vulnerable, Riis came over the radio: GOGOGO!--and Cancellara went.

Boonen was racing with heart, and you could argue (as I did) that Riis's tactic was kinda shady (hitting Boonen when he was at the team car behind a single file line of 15+ riders), but you still can't argue that, regardless of how it happened, the stronger man won. Cancellara was unstoppable this spring.

I think the same is true here with Contador/Schleck. This stage didn't decide the Tour, but Contador's overall strength advantage will.

You can't honestly say that with a straight face. I am not buying that at all. It seriously ended on the mountain today. We all know the importance of AS getting additional time advantage and being a serious underdog going into that final ITT.

Why guys are arguing that this thing isn't over just seems like an excuse to run a daily celebration for Contador and gloss over what happened today.

 

[mr. tibbs]

You can't honestly say that with a straight face. I am not buying that at all. It seriously ended on the mountain today. We all know the importance of AS getting additional time advantage and being a serious underdog going into that final ITT.

Why guys are arguing that this thing isn't over just seems like an excuse to run a daily celebration for Contador and gloss over what happened today.

Contador was coming back. The attack wasn't sticking. And even if Schleck leaves Contador with Menchov and Samu, they would just see him again on the descent. (Or he would get, maybe, a dozen seconds. If he could drop Contador and make it stick.)

Again, I like Schleck, but I just don't think beating Contador was ever in the cards for him this year.

 

[boardhanger]

You can't honestly say that with a straight face. I am not buying that at all. It seriously ended on the mountain today. We all know the importance of AS getting additional time advantage and being a serious underdog going into that final ITT.

Why guys are arguing that this thing isn't over just seems like an excuse to run a daily celebration for Contador and gloss over what happened today.

Obvisiouly this guy has limited Tour de France knowledge under his belt. Tell me have you ever ridden le Tourmalet?

 

[mr. tibbs]

Obvisiouly this guy has limited Tour de France knowledge under his belt. Tell me have you ever ridden le Tourmalet?

You're right, my knowledge is fairly limited compared to a lot of posters on this forum. (Seriously, it is.)

I've only been a serious cycling fan since 2004, when I started watching the Tour b/c I was enchanted by the ongoing Armstrong/Ullrich duel.

Since that time, I've followed the coverage of every major race and many minor ones. So there's that, I guess. I have no idea why I feel compelled to justify myself or qualify my cycling knowledge. Maybe it's time to call it a night.

Thanks for the casual dismissal; enjoy the rest of the Tour.

 

[boardhanger]

You're right, my knowledge is fairly limited compared to a lot of posters on this forum. (Seriously, it is.)

I've only been a serious cycling fan since 2004, when I started watching the Tour b/c I was enchanted by the ongoing Armstrong/Ullrich duel.

Since that time, I've followed the coverage of every major race and many minor ones. So there's that, I guess. I have no idea why I feel compelled to justify myself or qualify my cycling knowledge. Maybe it's time to call it a night.

Thanks for the casual dismissal; enjoy the rest of the Tour.

.....its not personnal but i've seen 'champions' lose minutes in kilometres once the hammer hits. 3 weeks into a race anyone can wake up tired flat etc....thats all im saying, I've seen it many times. I didn't mean no offence.

 

[Interested Observer]

much ado about little

Contador was not in a position to be over courteous in a group with the next two leaders in the GC, apparently also not feeling any need to wait up. Contador was also the virtual yellow in Paris in any case with a mere 31 seconds, less than he took off Schleck in the puny 10 minute prologue, behind. The final victory in Paris was as close to a forgone conclusion as it gets. If Riis is correct, then it comes down to the time trial when barring freak weather, freak mechanicals or an even less likely "jour sans" for Contador,
Contador would inevitably take a comfortable if not extravagant lead of at least a minute into the meaningless sprinter ritual that is the final stage of most Tours de France. Contador needed nothing more than to stay with Schleck for the four mountain stages to be all but assured of final victory and I am sure he and everyone that matters knows that. Getting the yellow is a bonus. So by Riis' analysis the tour was done barring unexpected success from a third party, a miraculous breakthrough by Schleck or other mishap. Is it not Merckx that espouses "no gifts"?

 

[boardhanger]

Contador was not in a position to be over courteous in a group with the next two leaders in the GC,- were left behind ala mechanical apparently also not feeling any need to wait up. Contador was also the virtual yellow in Paris in any case with a mere 31 seconds, less than he took off Schleck in the puny 10 minute prologue, behind.Why call it puny if you make it such a big deal?? The final victory in Paris was as close to a forgone conclusion as it gets. If Riis is correct, then it comes down to the time trial when barring freak weather, freak mechanicals or an even less likely "jour sans" for Contador,-can you quote Riis on this?
Contador would inevitably take a comfortable if not extravagant lead of at least a minute into the meaningless sprinter ritual that is the final stage of most Tours de France.Meaningless??? Contador needed nothing more than to stay with Schleck for the four mountain stages to be all but assured of final victory and I am sure he and everyone that matters knows that.-well all who know matters is A.S and A.C himself. Getting the yellow is a bonus. So by Riis' analysis the tour was done barring unexpected success from a third party, a miraculous breakthrough by Schleck or other mishap.-once more i ask for a quote? Is it not Merckx that espouses "no gifts"?

 

[abbaskip]

The best news is, that now Schleck HAS to attack. Most of us always thought he had to, but now he has no choice.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

A rain soaked prolouge at the begining of the TDf. Yet up untill todays mechanical he was 31 seconds ahead....mmmmh that makes 71 seconds???

What the he!! are you babbling about?

 

[Publicus]

What the he!! are you babbling about?

My guess is that he is saying that all of the time Andy gained over the previous 14 stages was because he was a superior rider over AC and not because of race situations (i.e., cobbles).

The argument is getting tiresome. It really boils down to do you think AC attacked because of Andy's dropped chain or was closing down Andy's attack when Andy dropped his chain. Everything after that, IMO, is academic. One implies malice, the other does not.

 

[Beasty Boy]

My guess is that he is saying that all of the time Andy gained over the previous 14 stages was because he was a superior rider over AC and not because of race situations (i.e., cobbles).

But AC was out of position on the cobbles and made a mess of immediately getting back on, which he admitted to. AS was rightfully ahead of him.

The argument is getting tiresome. It really boils down to do you think AC attacked because of Andy's dropped chain or was closing down Andy's attack when Andy dropped his chain. Everything after that, IMO, is academic. One implies malice, the other does not.

No, he did not start the attack because of the chain, but he did not finish it and went to the front after that to make hay. It's not malice as such, but I doubt he would have done this on last years form.

It's an issue because there are some people who won't even accept AC's admission he made a mistake. I know, crazy huh? Plus cycling fans are upset that the tour has not been given the battle it deserves during the final week.

You seem fine with that though.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

My initial reaction was one of disgust with Contador. I still think it would have been sporting to wait, but AS attacked and opened the floodgates.

Once you drop a grenade, it's hard to say, oops, let's stop it because I tripped getting out of the way. You can't really expect people who are racing full of adrenaline to suddenly turn that off and soft pedal.

Anyway, I hope those two are finished vacationing together and start kicking each other's a##es.

 

[Cerberus]

The point of this thread was to point out that:

1-Schleck's attack wasn't sticking (according to Riis),

Riis was not sure whether the attack was sticking. You really need to watch the video of the incident again, Schleck lost his chain almost the second Contador started responding. Then after he got his chain back on he did a faster ascent than Contador. Now it is possible that Contador just wasn't giving it his best because he wanted Menchov and Sanchez to help him on the descent, but your claim that the attack had already failed is just not accurate. You might be confusing Contador with Vino who responded faster.

TThis may fall flat, but here goes:

In Paris-Roubaix this year, Boonen was giving it his all and working the field over the same way he did last year. After one surge, he drifted to the team car to get some food and stretch his back. Seeing Boonen vulnerable, Riis came over the radio: GOGOGO!--and Cancellara went.

Boonen was racing with heart, and you could argue (as I did) that Riis's tactic was kinda shady (hitting Boonen when he was at the team car behind a single file line of 15+ riders), but you still can't argue that, regardless of how it happened, the stronger man won. Cancellara was unstoppable this spring.

Not a very accurate summery.Boonen drifted back to stretch and eat, but he was on Cancellara wheel when he finished eating, he then drifted further back, and that's when Cancellara attacked 10-15 seconds later.Boonen was not eating and not at his team car nor did it look like he was going there IMO.

This stage didn't decide the Tour, but Contador's overall strength advantage will.

Contador would probably have won anyway, but it wasn't a done deal. If the attack had stuck, which hadn't been determined yet the race would have been quite open.

 

[Publicus]

Riis was not sure whether the attack was sticking. You really need to watch the video of the incident again, Schleck lost his chain almost the second Contador started responding. Then after he got his chain back on he did a faster ascent than Contador. Now it is possible that Contador just wasn't giving it his best because he wanted Menchov and Sanchez to help him on the descent, but your claim that the attack had already failed is just not accurate. You might be confusing Contador with Vino who responded faster.


Not a very accurate summery.Boonen drifted back to stretch and eat, but he was on Cancellara wheel when he finished eating, he then drifted further back, and that's when Cancellara attacked 10-15 seconds later.Boonen was not eating and not at his team car nor did it look like he was going there IMO.


Contador would probably have won anyway, but it wasn't a done deal. If the attack had stuck, which hadn't been determined yet the race would have been quite open.

He's not confused. AC was in full flight after Andy before Andy threw his chain. Vino had reached Andy just as he was reaching Andy (and simply rolled past him to his right). AC rolled past on Andy's left before Andy had gotten off his bike (which is contrary to how Andy seems to recall it (he said AC attacked when he was off the bike fixing his chain)). But all of this happened in seconds just after Andy had launched his attack. All of it was a blur for the parties involved.

 

[pedaling squares]

As for who is stronger in the mountains, who knows? Andy took 10 seconds out of Alberto on a climb that suited him. Alberto took 10 seconds back on a climb that suited him. On other climbs neither one has been able to drop the other despite numerous attacks. It appears to me like Andy has been able to mark Alberto's attacks more easily than vice versa, but at the end of most climbs they've been side by side. They've been evenly matched and apart from their trackstands it's been great to watch.

 

[Cerberus]

He's not confused. AC was in full flight after Andy before Andy threw his chain. Vino had reached Andy just as he was reaching Andy (and simply rolled past him to his right). AC rolled past on Andy's left before Andy had gotten off his bike (which is contrary to how Andy seems to recall it (he said AC attacked when he was off the bike fixing his chain)). But all of this happened in seconds just after Andy had launched his attack. All of it was a blur for the parties involved.

I'm not sure what you're saying here, I'm particularly confused by the bolded part.
What happened was that Andy's chain fell of within a second of Contador launching himself after Andy. Mr. tibbs seems to think that Contador had already halfway closed the gap, but that's just not accurate. The attack had not been closed down and it was not clearly about to be. Contador might have closed the gap, but there's no solid proof either way because the defect happened just as the direct dual would have started.

 

[mr. tibbs]

I'm not sure what you're saying here, I'm particularly confused by the bolded part.
What happened was that Andy's chain fell of within a second of Contador launching himself after Andy. Mr. tibbs seems to think that Contador had already halfway closed the gap, but that's just not accurate. The attack had not been closed down and it was not clearly about to be. Contador might have closed the gap, but there's no solid proof either way because the defect happened just as the direct dual would have started.

I was basing this on Riis's assessment:

Nor did Riis know whether Schleck’s attack on the Port de Bales would have been successful, had his chain not come off. “I’m not sure because Contador was on his way back to Andy,” said Riis.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/riis-preaches-calm-in-aftermath-of-schlecks-disappointment

Admittedly, though, this could just be sporting understatement. Watching the clips, I had the impression that Contador was rallying back, but I didn't want to base my post on my own subjective viewing of it--we've all been differing greatly on those so far!

 

[Climbing]

Last time i checked i saw that the TdF will finish in Paris.
You never know what happens... maybe Andy will not finish second... maybe third or maybe something else.
That's cycling.

 

[ttrider]

Contador was clearly coming back easily

 

[Cerberus]

I was basing this on Riis's assessment:



http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/riis-preaches-calm-in-aftermath-of-schlecks-disappointment

Admittedly, though, this could just be sporting understatement. Watching the clips, I had the impression that Contador was rallying back, but I didn't want to base my post on my own subjective viewing of it--we've all been differing greatly on those so far!

I don't think Riis statement means what you think it does. I read it to mean that Contador was trying to close the hole and might have succeded. If he was sure that Contador was closing the gap he wouldn't have said I don't know. Also I think the situation is very clear (or very clearly unclear perhaps). Since Schlecks chain jumped of within 1 perhaps 2 seconds of Contador starting to respond there's just no way anyone including Schleck, Contador and Riis could have known whether he would succeed in closing the gap.

 

[sagard]

It didn't matter if Contador was going to be able to mark the attack. He would have reclaimed all the time on the down hill with Sanchez and Menchov even if Schleck had a 30-40 second head start.