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Re:
I'm starting to get worried too. But good news is that Nizzlo still has Ploauy and France are kind of running out, apart from Alaphillipe. Aru should get some points and Ulissi might sneak in a few points in the Canadian classics.SafeBet said:
Colombia's line-up is interesting:
Choose 5
Quintana, Uran, Henao, Chaves, Atapuma, Anacona, Arredondo, Serpa, Rubiano
Choose 5
Quintana, Uran, Henao, Chaves, Atapuma, Anacona, Arredondo, Serpa, Rubiano
So how's this gonna work out with Dumoulin earning points for the Netherlands.. serious chance for top 5?
Re:
His fall to 6th now makes it rather difficult. A win or 2nd would've had them in a good position but 70 points only gets NED to 787.
SPA, ITA, GBR & COL are assured of full quotas but the 5th spot is still open with only 2 individual & nations point scaring races remaining (Montreal & Lombardy). NED will be on 787 after Vuelta. BEL is currently on 782, AUS on 777 & FRA ON 767. BEL could have a significant collect at Montreal via GVA or Gilbert but AUS has Matthews still potentially in the picture for some significant points. Neither to have any significant points additions from the Vuelta, similar for FRA.
I suspect Montreal results will be the decider for this position as I would expect the major Lombardy points to go to riders from the four "full quota" nations.
l.Harm said:
His fall to 6th now makes it rather difficult. A win or 2nd would've had them in a good position but 70 points only gets NED to 787.
SPA, ITA, GBR & COL are assured of full quotas but the 5th spot is still open with only 2 individual & nations point scaring races remaining (Montreal & Lombardy). NED will be on 787 after Vuelta. BEL is currently on 782, AUS on 777 & FRA ON 767. BEL could have a significant collect at Montreal via GVA or Gilbert but AUS has Matthews still potentially in the picture for some significant points. Neither to have any significant points additions from the Vuelta, similar for FRA.
I suspect Montreal results will be the decider for this position as I would expect the major Lombardy points to go to riders from the four "full quota" nations.
What a fight for the 5th spot.
I think Netherlands will be 829 after Vuelta.
Belgium - 782
Australia - 777
France - 767
This is crazy. Almost country has a decent shot in landing the 5th spot.
GVA, Gilbert, Wellens, Matthews, Gerrans, Bardet, Alaphilippe, Gallopin, Mollema, Gesink
I think Netherlands will be 829 after Vuelta.
Belgium - 782
Australia - 777
France - 767
This is crazy. Almost country has a decent shot in landing the 5th spot.
GVA, Gilbert, Wellens, Matthews, Gerrans, Bardet, Alaphilippe, Gallopin, Mollema, Gesink
Re:
Yes, you're right. Dumoulin's points from stage wins/placings should bring NED up to there. Stuyven & Van Poppell's stage points will not add to the NED tally as these would not take them into the top 5 point-scorers from NED; likewise with Stuyven for BEL or Ewan for AUS.
FRA would need a win at Montreal or Lombardy as their men around the top 20 at Vuelta are from Europcar (non WT thus non eligible for points). Your suspects however DO have some chance
Struggling to see how Gerrans' impacts things unless he races Lombardy (currently at Vuelta not Montreal) & wins/podiums as that's what it would take for him to get into the top 5 AUS AND significantly boost the nations score.
Asero831 said:
Yes, you're right. Dumoulin's points from stage wins/placings should bring NED up to there. Stuyven & Van Poppell's stage points will not add to the NED tally as these would not take them into the top 5 point-scorers from NED; likewise with Stuyven for BEL or Ewan for AUS.
FRA would need a win at Montreal or Lombardy as their men around the top 20 at Vuelta are from Europcar (non WT thus non eligible for points). Your suspects however DO have some chance
Struggling to see how Gerrans' impacts things unless he races Lombardy (currently at Vuelta not Montreal) & wins/podiums as that's what it would take for him to get into the top 5 AUS AND significantly boost the nations score.
France with only 4 riders come Rio
Bardet, Pinot, Gallopin, Barguil, Vuillermoz. Someone will be dropped
Bardet, Pinot, Gallopin, Barguil, Vuillermoz. Someone will be dropped
FRA & AUS now both out of calculations as even a win at Lombardy cannot get them ahead of BEL. BEL is clearly in the driving seat as it would essentially require a Dutch rider to either win or podium at Lombardy with no Belgian in the top 10.
Technically, AUS could've had a 'back door route' to top up their numbers via the (essentially non existant) Oceania Tour (which exists of 4 races in the space of 1 month in Feb) but these 2 positions for top nation will go to NZL. AUS could conceivably qualify 2 for the ITT (via top 15 in nations standings plus a likely top 10 at 2015 Worlds) but these riders would also have to start the RR. Therefore they will most likely only field one ITTer.
Technically, AUS could've had a 'back door route' to top up their numbers via the (essentially non existant) Oceania Tour (which exists of 4 races in the space of 1 month in Feb) but these 2 positions for top nation will go to NZL. AUS could conceivably qualify 2 for the ITT (via top 15 in nations standings plus a likely top 10 at 2015 Worlds) but these riders would also have to start the RR. Therefore they will most likely only field one ITTer.
A bit complicated with the rule wording.
Anyone knows if, in the 3rd special provision (additional NOC representation), the quota reduction also affects countries that don't fill their own quota (less riders with WT points than places earned)? Examples: Norway, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia
I might be absolutely wrong (and this might change after this weekend and some other continental races) but:
So far it looks like, from WT and continental tours, the following countries will have 5 riders:
Spain, Colombia, Great Britain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Poland, Slovenia
4 riders for: Germany, Portugal, Czech Rep., Switzerland, Canada, Ukraine
Many countries will get 3, like Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Norway...
Anyone knows if, in the 3rd special provision (additional NOC representation), the quota reduction also affects countries that don't fill their own quota (less riders with WT points than places earned)? Examples: Norway, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia
I might be absolutely wrong (and this might change after this weekend and some other continental races) but:
So far it looks like, from WT and continental tours, the following countries will have 5 riders:
Spain, Colombia, Great Britain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Poland, Slovenia
4 riders for: Germany, Portugal, Czech Rep., Switzerland, Canada, Ukraine
Many countries will get 3, like Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Norway...
Re:
Sorry but you ARE wrong with regards to AUS at the very least. Nations 6th to 15th get 4 riders (they're currently 7th-8th). They have the following riders with WT points (Dennis, Porte, Matthews, Ewan, Durbridge, Clarke, Rogers, Howson, Haussler) so they are NOT subject to a reduction.
What they are unlikely to get is the "top-up" to maximum 5 riders via the Oceania tour who's quota of 2 will both go to NZL who do have 2 riders with 2015 WT points. Both countries have riders with WT points and are therefore part of the 2015 UCI Final Rankings by Nations so are NOT subject to special provision 3. In any case, they are the only two Oceania nations with points on the Oceania tour.
NZL Olympic officials, unlike Australian, tend not to like to "add padding to their team numbers" so it is possible that they may NOT utilise their full quota. In that case any unused numbers will most likely go to the UCI for re-allocation. Where .... we do not know.
slosada said:
Sorry but you ARE wrong with regards to AUS at the very least. Nations 6th to 15th get 4 riders (they're currently 7th-8th). They have the following riders with WT points (Dennis, Porte, Matthews, Ewan, Durbridge, Clarke, Rogers, Howson, Haussler) so they are NOT subject to a reduction.
What they are unlikely to get is the "top-up" to maximum 5 riders via the Oceania tour who's quota of 2 will both go to NZL who do have 2 riders with 2015 WT points. Both countries have riders with WT points and are therefore part of the 2015 UCI Final Rankings by Nations so are NOT subject to special provision 3. In any case, they are the only two Oceania nations with points on the Oceania tour.
NZL Olympic officials, unlike Australian, tend not to like to "add padding to their team numbers" so it is possible that they may NOT utilise their full quota. In that case any unused numbers will most likely go to the UCI for re-allocation. Where .... we do not know.
NairoQ said:
Spain is certain of 5 riders. The rest of the top four - Columbia, Great-Britain and Italy - are as good as certain for 5 riders. Belgium is 5th with the Netherlands 57 points behind. The other nations have a gap of more than 100 points and seem unlikely to make the top 5.
Looking at the top 15 (needed for 4 riders) the cut-off zone looks like:
13 Czech Republic 306
14 Slovenia 294
15 Switzerland 270
16 Slovakia 257
17 Russia 257
As close to a current summation (and attempt at explantion) as I can manage. The numbers for the men's road race is capped at 144 riders, BRA, as hosts, have an automatic quota of 2 riders.
There are 65 quota to be decided by the final 2015 World Tour Rankings by Nation. The top 5 nations qualify a full quota of 5 riders and nations 6-15 receive a quota of 4 riders. However, the following proviso must be noted with regards to quotas from ALL tours. An nation may not obtain more quota places than it has riders ranked in the individual ranking of the tour concerned (UCI WorldTour or Continental Tours) - ie scoring points.
The following nations have qualified a full quota of 5 riders:
Spain, Italy, Colombia, Great Britain & Belgium.
The following nations were ranked 6-15 in the World Tour; their quotas are shown in brackets:
France (4), Netherlands (4), Australia (4), Germany (4), Norway (1), Poland (3), Portugal (4), Czech Republic (3), Slovenia (3), Switzerland (4). This leaves 6 World Tour quotas currently unassigned.
The Europe, Americas, Asian & African Tours still have not completed their calendars but these are how their qualification pictures look at this moment:
The Africa Tour quotas are:
Algeria (3), Morocco (2), South Africa (2), Eritrea (2). These are NOT likely to change.
Brazil has an automatic quota of 2 riders & Colombia has already earned a full quota via the World Tour so they are excluded from the Americas Tour distribution:
Canada (3), Argentina (3), USA (3), Venezuela (2), Ecuador (2). Chile & Costa Rica COULD threaten the final spot.
The Asian Tour quotas are currently:
Iran (3), Kazakhstan (2), Japan (2), South Korea (2). Hong Kong & Philippines COULD threaten the final spot.
The Oceania Tour runs for only 1 month (Feb) and only qualifies one nation and a quota of 2 riders which will go to New Zealand.
The European Tour is where it gets really messy !! Spain, Italy, Great Britain & Belgium are excluded having obtained full quotas via the World Tour. As to whether France, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal can "top up" to 5 via the European tour is not fully clear. Norway, Poland, Czech Republic & Slovenia most certainly CAN "top up" to at least 4 riders via this Tour. I'll operate on the basis that only the latter four can top up via Europe
The top 6 nations may qualify 3 riders (eligible quotas in brackets)
Slovenia (1), Ukraine (3), Russia (3), Denmark (3), Norway (3) & Poland (1)
Nations 7-16 may qualify 2 riders
Austria (2), Belarus (2), Czech Republic (1), Turkey (2), Lithuania (2), Estonia (2), Latvia (2), Croatia (2), Ireland (2) & Slovakia (2). This leaves 2 currently unallocated quotas. IF they operate on a "default down" basis then Sweden & Greece may qualify 2 riders and Serbia or Romania qualify one.
For those nations who failed to qualify riders via either World Tour or Continental Tours, there are 6 additional quota positions available. The top two NON qualified nations at the African, Asian & Pan American Championships each gain one rider quota.
This is now they currently look:
Asia - United Arab Emirates (1), Hong Kong (1) which may default to Thailand should they make the final top 4 nations in Asia rankings.
Africa - Ethiopia (1), Tunisia (1)
Americas - Ecuador (1), Costa Rica (1). Both are in battle for position 5 on final Americas ranking. The last quota should then default to Mexico.
I'm not going to go into the potential contradiction with regards to the special provisions regarding possible re-allocations here. It would make this post look even more like War And Peace !
There are 65 quota to be decided by the final 2015 World Tour Rankings by Nation. The top 5 nations qualify a full quota of 5 riders and nations 6-15 receive a quota of 4 riders. However, the following proviso must be noted with regards to quotas from ALL tours. An nation may not obtain more quota places than it has riders ranked in the individual ranking of the tour concerned (UCI WorldTour or Continental Tours) - ie scoring points.
The following nations have qualified a full quota of 5 riders:
Spain, Italy, Colombia, Great Britain & Belgium.
The following nations were ranked 6-15 in the World Tour; their quotas are shown in brackets:
France (4), Netherlands (4), Australia (4), Germany (4), Norway (1), Poland (3), Portugal (4), Czech Republic (3), Slovenia (3), Switzerland (4). This leaves 6 World Tour quotas currently unassigned.
The Europe, Americas, Asian & African Tours still have not completed their calendars but these are how their qualification pictures look at this moment:
The Africa Tour quotas are:
Algeria (3), Morocco (2), South Africa (2), Eritrea (2). These are NOT likely to change.
Brazil has an automatic quota of 2 riders & Colombia has already earned a full quota via the World Tour so they are excluded from the Americas Tour distribution:
Canada (3), Argentina (3), USA (3), Venezuela (2), Ecuador (2). Chile & Costa Rica COULD threaten the final spot.
The Asian Tour quotas are currently:
Iran (3), Kazakhstan (2), Japan (2), South Korea (2). Hong Kong & Philippines COULD threaten the final spot.
The Oceania Tour runs for only 1 month (Feb) and only qualifies one nation and a quota of 2 riders which will go to New Zealand.
The European Tour is where it gets really messy !! Spain, Italy, Great Britain & Belgium are excluded having obtained full quotas via the World Tour. As to whether France, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal can "top up" to 5 via the European tour is not fully clear. Norway, Poland, Czech Republic & Slovenia most certainly CAN "top up" to at least 4 riders via this Tour. I'll operate on the basis that only the latter four can top up via Europe
The top 6 nations may qualify 3 riders (eligible quotas in brackets)
Slovenia (1), Ukraine (3), Russia (3), Denmark (3), Norway (3) & Poland (1)
Nations 7-16 may qualify 2 riders
Austria (2), Belarus (2), Czech Republic (1), Turkey (2), Lithuania (2), Estonia (2), Latvia (2), Croatia (2), Ireland (2) & Slovakia (2). This leaves 2 currently unallocated quotas. IF they operate on a "default down" basis then Sweden & Greece may qualify 2 riders and Serbia or Romania qualify one.
For those nations who failed to qualify riders via either World Tour or Continental Tours, there are 6 additional quota positions available. The top two NON qualified nations at the African, Asian & Pan American Championships each gain one rider quota.
This is now they currently look:
Asia - United Arab Emirates (1), Hong Kong (1) which may default to Thailand should they make the final top 4 nations in Asia rankings.
Africa - Ethiopia (1), Tunisia (1)
Americas - Ecuador (1), Costa Rica (1). Both are in battle for position 5 on final Americas ranking. The last quota should then default to Mexico.
I'm not going to go into the potential contradiction with regards to the special provisions regarding possible re-allocations here. It would make this post look even more like War And Peace !
The quotas for the ITT are included in those for the Road Race so the Time Triallists must at least start the Road Race. A country CAN, notionally qualify a maximum of two spots but then they have to make an assessment as to whether this impacts their RR prospects or whether their better prospects lie in the ITT. Those who have qualified a quota via World Tour CANNOT top up via Continental qualification. The total number of starters is capped at 40.
The top 10 nations in the ITT at 2015 Worlds all qualified one quota:
Belarus, Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, Australia, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic & USA
The top 15 nations in the final 2015 World Tour rankings have also qualified one quota:
Spain, Italy, Colombia, Great Britain, Belgium, France, Netherlands, Australia, Germany, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia & Switzerland.
The top 2 nations from Africa Tour each qualify one spot:
Algeria & Morocco
The top 2 nations from Asia Tour each qualify one spot:
Iran & Kazakhstan
The top 4 nations from Americas Tour each qualify one sport:
Canada, Argentina, USA & Venezuela
The top nation from Oceania Tour qualifies one spot:
New Zealand
The top 6 nations from Europe Tour each qualify one spot. The following nations are ineligible due to WT qualification:
Spain, Italy, Great Britain, Belgium, France, Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia & Switzerland.
(currently qualifiers): Ukraine, Russia, Denmark, Austria, Belarus & Turkey.
The top 10 nations in the ITT at 2015 Worlds all qualified one quota:
Belarus, Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, Australia, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic & USA
The top 15 nations in the final 2015 World Tour rankings have also qualified one quota:
Spain, Italy, Colombia, Great Britain, Belgium, France, Netherlands, Australia, Germany, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia & Switzerland.
The top 2 nations from Africa Tour each qualify one spot:
Algeria & Morocco
The top 2 nations from Asia Tour each qualify one spot:
Iran & Kazakhstan
The top 4 nations from Americas Tour each qualify one sport:
Canada, Argentina, USA & Venezuela
The top nation from Oceania Tour qualifies one spot:
New Zealand
The top 6 nations from Europe Tour each qualify one spot. The following nations are ineligible due to WT qualification:
Spain, Italy, Great Britain, Belgium, France, Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia & Switzerland.
(currently qualifiers): Ukraine, Russia, Denmark, Austria, Belarus & Turkey.
10 more months.
Interesting with the selection for the French and the Dutch.
Spain - Valverde, Rodriguez, Contador, Landa, Moreno
Columbia - Uran, Chaves, Henao, Quintana, Arredondo
Italy - Nibali, Aru, Ulissi, Pozzovivo, Felline
Great Britain - Froome, Thomas, Yates, Yates, Cummings
Belgium - Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Wellens, Vanendert, Hermans
France - Pinot, Bardet, Gallopin, Alaphilippe
Netherlands - Dumoulin, Mollema, Poels, Gesink
Australia - Porte, Matthews, Dennis, Rogers
Germany - Degenkolb, Martin, Geschke, Martens
Norway - Kristroff, Boasson-Hagen
Poland - Kwiatkowski, Majka, Paterski, Bodnar
Portugal - Costa, Oliveira, Goncalves
Czech Republic - Stybar, Kreuziger, Konig
Slovenia - Spilak, Polanc
Switzerland - Cancellara, Frank, Albasini, Morabito
United States - Van Garderen, Talansky, Phinney
United States - Van Garderen, Talansky, Phinney, Danielson
Ireland - Martin,Roche,Deignan,Bennett
Czech Rep - Stybar,Kreuziger,Konig,Vakoc
Switzerland - Cancellera,Albasini,Dillier
Slovakia - Sagan,Velits,Velits
Russia - Kolobnev, Trifimov,Tsatevich
Denmark - Fuglsang,Valgren,Brechel
Austria - Eisel,Brandle,Zoidl
Interesting with the selection for the French and the Dutch.
Spain - Valverde, Rodriguez, Contador, Landa, Moreno
Columbia - Uran, Chaves, Henao, Quintana, Arredondo
Italy - Nibali, Aru, Ulissi, Pozzovivo, Felline
Great Britain - Froome, Thomas, Yates, Yates, Cummings
Belgium - Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Wellens, Vanendert, Hermans
France - Pinot, Bardet, Gallopin, Alaphilippe
Netherlands - Dumoulin, Mollema, Poels, Gesink
Australia - Porte, Matthews, Dennis, Rogers
Germany - Degenkolb, Martin, Geschke, Martens
Norway - Kristroff, Boasson-Hagen
Poland - Kwiatkowski, Majka, Paterski, Bodnar
Portugal - Costa, Oliveira, Goncalves
Czech Republic - Stybar, Kreuziger, Konig
Slovenia - Spilak, Polanc
Switzerland - Cancellara, Frank, Albasini, Morabito
United States - Van Garderen, Talansky, Phinney
United States - Van Garderen, Talansky, Phinney, Danielson
Ireland - Martin,Roche,Deignan,Bennett
Czech Rep - Stybar,Kreuziger,Konig,Vakoc
Switzerland - Cancellera,Albasini,Dillier
Slovakia - Sagan,Velits,Velits
Russia - Kolobnev, Trifimov,Tsatevich
Denmark - Fuglsang,Valgren,Brechel
Austria - Eisel,Brandle,Zoidl
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