Road to Olympics: UCI World Tour Nations Ranking

[TMP402]

Full results here

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Aquece_Rio_International_Road_Cycling_Challenge_2015

Who was that Brazilian who was going to teach all those filthy Europeans again?

What I get from the results is Swift and Clarke show puncheurs only have a chance if they are also good climbers ie Gallopin and Vuillermoz. And the fact Bardet and Pinot finished behind them might suggest the 18km between the final climb and the finish is too long, and it will be a predictable sprint finish with Valverde/Kwiatkowski/Albasini/etc.

No way. This is harder than 2013 Firenze.

Sure but 18km for Valverde to make up with he lost to Nibali/Quintana/Froome/Contador on the final climb? Very possible.

On his own? Possible but not likely. If the race is shattered, with small groups and lone riders all over the road, a rider could easily defend a 30s advantage.

No not on his own. If it was a true GC contenders' road race, I would imagine the groups on the road after the final climb being

Contador, Froome, Quintana
[10 seconds]
Nibali
[another 20 seconds]
Valverde, Rodriguez, van Garderen, Uran, Bardet, Porte
[Further back]
Costa, Fuglsang, Majka, one or both Yates', Thomas, Pinot, Mollema, Talansky, D Martin, Kwiatkowski, Hesjedal, and so on

In other words the probability of the handful of best climbers in the world staying away - and that's if they were to work together - is lower than a group containing Valverde being able to bring them back in the last 18km. I don't know where we're at with the intra-Spanish relationship but Contador is unlikely to win a sprint against Quintana or Froome so really ought to try to let Valverde catch up. Quintana is not going to be able to pull as strongly on the front as Froome, so that just creates little disharmony in the group and makes a bigger group catching up to them more likely. I imagine every manager of the favourite teams will order a decoy to go up the road on the penultimate climb, to link up with the favourites on or after the final climb and drive them to the finish line.

 

[TMP402]

I think I read before Froome will make the Olympic ITT a big aim for the season, I wonder if he will try to save energy for the TT two days after the RR.

 

[oldcrank]

Isn't the Men's Road Race on 6-AUG-2016
and the Men's Time Trial on 10-AUG-2016?

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

That he wouldn't be a leader of a team, probably not even a free role seeing that they are better riders for this terrain. I really hope that Poland holds on. Majka needs to top 5-6 the Vuelta and Kwiatkowski needs to come back into some semi-decent shape for the classics.

I am quite certain that isn't what ILoveCycling meant.[/quote]



My point was that Alberto was never a leader, more of a helper for Piti or rather 'free role', so he was needed by spanish coach.
Depends on the profile but if its for Valverde then I can see he (AC) would be left at home if in bad shape (which is highly unlikely imo )

 

[Finn84]

Isn't the Men's Road Race on 6-AUG-2016
and the Men's Time Trial on 10-AUG-2016?

Yes. Similar program compared to all Olympics from 2004 onwards.
1st competition day - Men's RR
2nd competition day - Women's RR
5th competition day - Both road time trials.

 

[TMP402]

Isn't the Men's Road Race on 6-AUG-2016
and the Men's Time Trial on 10-AUG-2016?

You're right - apologies.

 

[Asero831]

The 5 km descent after the climb will also be crucial. If front group get a gap of more than a minute after the descent, then it will be all over for the chasers.

Nibali and Valverde can gain 30-45 seconds in that descent

 

[Bushman]

The 5 km descent after the climb will also be crucial. If front group get a gap of more than a minute after the descent, then it will be all over for the chasers.

Nibali and Valverde can gain 30-45 seconds in that descent

In 5 k? No freaking way. If Nibali goes all in he could probably gain around 10 seconds, nothing more.

 

[TMP402]

Well it's probably irrelevant anyway. If it's the true GC battle everyone says it is, Valverde and Nibali may well have been distanced by then.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Well it's probably irrelevant anyway. If it's the true GC battle everyone says it is, Valverde and Nibali may well have been distanced by then.

But Nibali tends to be > than other GC guys in long one day races. Him and Valverde are bigger favourites than Froome or Quintana. The guys at the end will be similar to the top guys at Firenze 2013, not the big group 30 seconds back, but Purito and Costa and Nibali and Piti

 

[TMP402]

The Japanese team receiving some assistance during the race

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EftXTnM2AQ

 

[53x11 in DC]

Re:

The Japanese team receiving some assistance during the race

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EftXTnM2AQ

Hilarious video. That's the newly repaved Point de Grumari climb. Massively steep in parts, around 20% (don't believe the 13% max as stated in some publications) and gets progressively worse as the climb goes on. It's a good thing they repaved, because the road looked like it had been the victim of a prolonged bombing campaign until about two weeks ago.

Some thoughts.....

1. The descent off Vista Chinesa is neither long enough or technical enough to create massive gaps for those groups coming over together. Even Salvodelli wouldn't have put 45 seconds into another rider on the descent.

2. Even if they COULD do so, the 18km to the finish will largely be into the prevailing headwinds that come up every afternoon here during the winter (remember, we're upside down down here). They tend to be of the 12-15kph variety, and the riders will be totally exposed as they course along the beaches after the descent - thus making it tougher to stay away solo or in a pair. I would imagine riders losing 10-15 seconds on the descent will have time to regroup and effect a chase.

3. To me, a small lead group of typical GC and Dan Martin types will emerge on the Canoas part of the final climb, easily the more difficult part of the two-step climb. Anyone within 20-30 seconds at the Vista Chinesa summit should be able to regroup on the descent or shortly thereafter. The climb is a brute, but in the end, it's not 15 or 20k long, and gets easier towards the top.

4. What struck me in watching the "test" race is just how much "dead time" there is between the Grumari/Grota Funda loop and the Vista Chinesa loop. Everything else, save for the relatively easy Joa climb, is PAN FLAT. Even the roads between the Grumari and GF climbs are basically 100% flat. Thus, the Grumari/GF loop is really just a leg softener, and provided riders don't suffer mechanicals on the 2km of cobbles leading into the Grumari climb, there is an enormous amount of 100% flat road for things to regroup. And to top it off, the group will almost certainly be eating a stiff headwind through Recreio, Barra and Sao Conrado before hitting Vista Chinesa. Thus, it seems a bit of a processional until about km165/170.

5. This is basically how it played out last weekend. As they passed through Barra on their way to the VC loops, the French were tooling along on the back (all of them, I think save for one in the break about two minutes up the road), calmly awaiting the storm that the VC loop would bring. They ended up taking 4 of the top 5. Admittedly, they brought the A-team, and it was a weak field, but the dynamic doesn't change - the race has a fair amount of dead space.

No matter what, it's a beautiful course. It's fun to see the riders hitting the same roads we hack around on every weekend down here, and on some weekdays when playing "hooky". We are also very thankful for the repaving that will save a few of our wheels.

 

[robin440]

Nice post!

 

[TMP402]

Re:

Nice post!

+1

 

[Fernandez]

In an interview for the spanish newspaper AS, the spanish cycling coach has said that the Rio circuit is the hardest he has ever seen; harder than a Liege. He expects having Valverde, Purito and Contador.
Its a circuit that fits Valverde and Purito like a handmade ring, I wish they can fight for the win with their lates 30s.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Well it's probably irrelevant anyway. If it's the true GC battle everyone says it is, Valverde and Nibali may well have been distanced by then.

And why would Nibali and Valverde, proven +250km riders, been distanced at all?! Might be otherwise though...

 

[53x11 in DC]

Re:

In an interview for the spanish newspaper AS, the spanish cycling coach has said that the Rio circuit is the hardest he has ever seen; harder than a Liege. He expects having Valverde, Purito and Contador.
Its a circuit that fits Valverde and Purito like a handmade ring, I wish they can fight for the win with their lates 30s.

The Liege comparison is very appropriate. I was trying to think of how to describe the Canoas/VC loop in the context of classics and/or WC races, and the only comparison would be to stack 2 or 3 La Redoutes on top of each other. Not for variability or steepest pitches, but in terms of level of difficulty at that point in a race. In fact, the Grumari climb has more variability and steeper pitches, but is early on and much shorter.

While I'm not going to argue with a national coach about difficulty, I would just capture it in a different way... I'm not sure I've ever seen a harder last 80k-90k of any classic/WC. As I mentioned before, the first 165k could end up pretty tame. The Prainha/cobbles/Grumari section is tricky and steep in sections, but fairly short. The Grota Funda climb is 100% big ring. All else is flat and they likely won't have to deal with any headwinds until they come off the Gru/GF loop.

With regards to GC, I think more than just the quintessential GC'ers will remain. I think the quasi-GC'ers like Talansky, Martin, Purito, maybe Thomas, etc. will all be in with a chance. The Gilbert types, I am highly skeptical of.

 

[Asero831]

I think it is more similar to Lombardia than Liege.. :Liege does not have climbs longer than 5k

 

[53x11 in DC]

Re:

I think it is more similar to Lombardia than Liege.. :Liege does not have climbs longer than 5k

Which is why I specified 2-3 La Redoutes. My point was more the decisive nature of the climb and the point at which the circuits arrive.

What will be truly fun is watching 10-15 GC'ers figure out how to play their rouleur cards over the final flat and windy 18k. That's why I agree with a previous poster that the likes of Valverde seem tailor-made for this parcours.

 

[robin440]

Yes thats a perfect course for him, i hope he doesnt retire like vino, if he wins.

But if there is a group of a couple of gc guys like froome, nibali .... + valverde, could be an interesting final kilometers. They know valverde would outsprint them all.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Due to the small teams the race in London became really exciting after they hit the 200k mark. Even Sky couldn't controll this with Wiggins and Froome in top shape and their super diesels Millar und Stannard. And now we have a difficult and challenging course. We will see a fantastic race, I have no doubts. And most of the GC guys can enter this in good shape, because they won't race the Qatar Worlds in October.

 

[SafeBet]

Due to the small teams the race in London became really exciting after they hit the 200k mark. Even Sky couldn't controll this with Wiggins and Froome in top shape and their super diesels Millar und Stannard. And now we have a difficult and challenging course. We will see a fantastic race, I have no doubts. And most of the GC guys can enter this in good shape, because they won't race the Qatar Worlds in October.

Yes, I feel like most are underrating the huge impact of team size on a bike race. Riders are not used to race with 3-4 teammates. It could be carnage.

 

[Asero831]

France is currently just 2 points short of Belgium for the top 5 after GVA 5th place in Hamburg.
Nizzolo's 3rd place also help Italy keep 3rd spot.

Spain - 1582
Great Britain - 973
Columbia - 814
Italy - 769
France - 757

Belgium - 755
Australia - 717
Netherland - 693
Germany - 550

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I think I read before Froome will make the Olympic ITT a big aim for the season, I wonder if he will try to save energy for the TT two days after the RR.

I would say that Froome has a bigger chance of winning the ITT in a grand tour where recovery is a bigger deal than in a one day event like the Olympics. He would be reducing his chances for the RR IMHO.

 

[SafeBet]

Before the Vuelta I thought Italy's place among the 5 best was a sure thing, but with Nibali's disqualification nothing is certain.