Ronde Van Vlaanderen 2012

[Richeypen]

How many one day races has he actually won? I can only remember a semi-classic in germany last year and that was a bunch sprint. In fact most of his stage wins have been sprints, though as you say, often from a smaller group (i think!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ylB4CHOwRg

 

[williamp78]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ylB4CHOwRg

Impressive. I've only really started following the full season of road racing in the past 2/3 years since i got eurosport so didn't realise he'd won gent in the past. Though ironically i think cav is aiming for gent this year

 

[killswitch]

I dunno how certain this Cancellara v Gilbert battle is. BMC is boasting multiple contenders, incidentally as is Quick Step. Cancellara v Gilbert/Ballan/Hushovd v Boonen/Chavanel.

+ Garmin(Haussler/Vanmarcke), GE(Langeveld), Vacan(Leukemans), Rabo(ok, scratch that) if we count the BMC riders with their current form as genuine contenders.

 

[AussieGoddess]

GVA has looked strong all season, Gilbert to mark Cancellara, and GVA to go early. While everyone waits to see what Cancellara does he'll solo away with it.

this is fairly possible I think

GVA to have a go early, and if it comes back Gilbert v Cancellara

 

[El Pistolero]

yes.. forget the last 3/4 editions of MSR, the last editions of flanders, worlds etc.

Gilbert is never in top shape for Flanders. I'm not sure how you can see the last WC as a duel... Or the year before that for that matter.

 

[boomcie]

BMC has Ballan, who as we know is good for a guaranteed top-10 but not much more.

How is Ballan good for a guaranteed top-10 in Flanders? What kind of statistical parameter are you using? A pretty outdated one I'm guessing.

 

[theyoungest]

How is Ballan good for a guaranteed top-10 in Flanders? What kind of statistical parameter are you using? A pretty outdated one I'm guessing.

Currently I'd say he's a likely top-10 finisher. The one who needs to change the parameter is you.

 

[boomcie]

Currently I'd say he's a likely top-10 finisher. The one who needs to change the parameter is you.

A likely top-10 finisher sounds better already. I merely objected to the notion that Ballan is a guaranteed top-10 rider in Flanders.

What's wrong with my parameter?

 

[theyoungest]

A likely top-10 finisher sounds better already. I merely objected to the notion that Ballan is a guaranteed top-10 rider in Flanders.

What's wrong with my parameter?

Just guessing you still had it set at the 2010 values for Ballan.

The question of a "guaranteed" top-10 finisher is more of a semantic issue.

 

[boomcie]

Just guessing you still had it set at the 2010 values for Ballan.

The question of a "guaranteed" top-10 finisher is more of a semantic issue.

2010 is a useless parameter.

Last year he would have been a "guaranteed" top 10 rider as well, but he didn't succeed (12th).

I'd say Cance is a "guaranteed" top 10 finisher (all semantics aside). Ballan has a good chance.

 

[taiwan]

I was the one that brought up Ballan. My point was that in this race Gilbert < Cancellara, and BMC have other options they can use. Even Cancellara can't always win without teammates to use tactically, as has been discussed at length.

 

[Michele]

Ballan was up there in Sanremo, kinda surprised me, so I dont see why he shouldnt be competitive in Flanders as well.
He mentioned more than once that its the race he likes the most.

 

[boomcie]

Ballan was up there in Sanremo, kinda surprised me, so I dont see why he shouldnt be competitive in Flanders as well.
He mentioned more than once that its the race he likes the most.

He will be competitive in Flanders.

 

[dlwssonic]

Its time for BMC to rise from the ashes, this is Gilberts race! Its now or never!

 

[Panda Claws]

A likely top-10 finisher sounds better already. I merely objected to the notion that Ballan is a guaranteed top-10 rider in Flanders.

What's wrong with my parameter?

Well not literally guarenteed but it is just something you can rely on. Stop splitting hairs about how 12th isn't top 10.

 

[AussieGoddess]

Phil to reign supreme here ... the start of his world domination

 

[dlwssonic]

Its gonna be hard for Gilbert to win it with the last climb pretty far from the finish. His best hope is that he can ride with riders with a weaker sprint than his.

 

[boomcie]

Stop splitting hairs about how 12th isn't top 10.

It actually really isn't. Like a 4th place isn't a podium. But alright, I get it, you're getting agitated. I rest my case.

 

[Anonymous]

So..........

Quickstep looked great today at Dwars and their tactics played out perfectly.

Anyone else real unimpressed with Garmin at the moment (except Sep)?

 

[Bavarianrider]

That race is dead sorry.
It's like Wimbledon played on Hart Court in Brent

 

[Froome19]

So..........

Quickstep looked great today at Dwars and their tactics played out perfectly.

Anyone else real unimpressed with Garmin at the moment (except Sep)?

Yeh I can see numerous possibilities for Quickstep now that Terpstra + Chavanel + Boonen are all in superb form:
A) If Cancellara attacks then they have obviously a very strong team in terms of Terpstra and Chavanel to try and bring him back and then Boonen can win the sprint
B) If Cancellara attacks they could follow with one of their riders preferably Boonen as he is the one most likely to beat Cancellara and then the other 2 can lie in wait if attack fails like last year.
C) If Cancellara doesnt attack then they can do a Garmin- Van summeren and send a rider, either Chavanel or Terpstra ahead to force Cancellara to attack and then they can just follow with Boonen.
D) Or they can ride very high tempo towards the end to discourage any attacks and then Boonen goes for the sprint win.
E) If Gilbert attacks then they can send a rider after him, and another rider to follow Cancellara and then another rider if it all comes back together.
F)They can stretch out the field then attack with someone then if Cancellara follows they can counter with last rider as well, this will give a boost to him and end up with 2 against one.
G) Mainly for me, they can push the pace really hard so that Cancellara is isolated and then they can attack this will force Cancellara to follow, yet Boonen can do a Hushovd and jsut follow.

Main problems with all of these is BMC and whether they will chase or not.
Garmin can also do something similar but their team doesnt seem as strong, even though they have Van Marke, haussler, Farrar, Van Summeren ,Maaskant and Klier who has been in good form.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Nice comprehensive breakdown, Froome! I agree with you, and I think that the race will become OPQS vs Cancellara. No way are BMC and Garmin going to help super team or superman.

I'd love to see Chava win the way Terpstra won today. (And the way Devolder won twice.)

Dark horse = Gilbert. What is he gonna bring to the table?

 

[theyoungest]

So..........

Quickstep looked great today at Dwars and their tactics played out perfectly.

Anyone else real unimpressed with Garmin at the moment (except Sep)?

Jack Bauer was pretty strong today.

Farrar is overrated as a classics rider. Haussler... I don't know about Haussler. I guess 2009 was just a freak season. Before and after he's never come close to that level.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Good old Jack Bauer. That name is not mentioned enough in here.

He should be able to flý through life with every opportunities open for him with that name.

 

[Froome19]

Nice comprehensive breakdown, Froome! I agree with you, and I think that the race will become OPQS vs Cancellara. No way are BMC and Garmin going to help super team or superman.

I'd love to see Chava win the way Terpstra won today. (And the way Devolder won twice.)

Dark horse = Gilbert. What is he gonna bring to the table?

Personally i think the whole BMC team will be very important to the race, even if their leaders arent on top form they still will be inclined to chase like last year and the big question is whether Cancellara will be able to stay away from them unlike like last year.
Of course there are one again multiple possiblities but it matters whether BMC will counter with Gilbert or with one of their other riders or at all. If they counter then it will be great for Cancellara as it means that BMC wont chase, and even if they may not have the firepower to win (it really matters on Gilbert as I cant see any of the others winning) they certainly will have the firepower to keep the field together enough especially for the likes of Boonen and co...