Ronde van Vlaanderen: October 18th, 2020

[Red Rick]

He has never ridden on them.

Nevertheless, I have no doubt he deserves four stars.

Same level as Van Aert and Van der Poel?

I think he's much more likely to not top 10 than to win. I think he's clearly behind Pedersen

 

[Wvv]

On the Paterberg, you can get out of the saddle though. The last 5 editions, GVA is on average the best on that hill, and he always climbs it that way.

That doesn't mean I think Alaphilippe will be able to drop WVA and MVDP there. Rather the other way around if I had to guess. But I do believe he has the option to climb it the way he prefers.

 

[Red Rick]

I think the place for Alaphilippe to attack is the Kruisberg/Hotond if a better opportunity doesn't arise by itself. I think waiting for the Kwaremont is suicide for Alaphilippe

 

[tobydawq]

Same level as Van Aert and Van der Poel?

I think he's much more likely to not top 10 than to win. I think he's clearly behind Pedersen

No five stars to the crossers, four to Alaphilippe.

It's the forum's weird layout that obscures a star.

 

[tobydawq]

On the Paterberg, you can get out of the saddle though. The last 5 editions, GVA is on average the best on that hill, and he always climbs it that way.

That doesn't mean I think Alaphilippe will be able to drop WVA and MVDP there. Rather the other way around if I had to guess. But I do believe he has the option to climb it the way he prefers.

Surely, I was talking about the Kwaremont, you don't see anyone standing in the pedals there.

 

[Red Rick]

No five stars to the crossers, four to Alaphilippe.

It's the forum's weird layout that obscures a star.

Ah that makes more sense then.

 

[F_Cance]

https://twitter.com/dociclismo/status/1316532208006561792

not really flying up the hills but could be part of the show

 

[Wvv]

Surely, I was talking about the Kwaremont, you don't see anyone standing in the pedals there.

On the second part sometimes to launch, but not for long no.

 

[ice&fire]

We should go back to the thread of the 2019 edition, copy/paste all the messages about the World Champion at that time and just update his name.

 

[tobydawq]

We should go back to the thread of the 2019 edition, copy/paste all the messages about the World Champion at that time and just update his name.

Apart from the risk that the rider in question might make an attack this time.

 

[42x16ss]

On the Paterberg, you can get out of the saddle though. The last 5 editions, GVA is on average the best on that hill, and he always climbs it that way.

That doesn't mean I think Alaphilippe will be able to drop WVA and MVDP there. Rather the other way around if I had to guess. But I do believe he has the option to climb it the way he prefers.

Nibali and Valverde haven't quite been able to match the best classics specialists on the bergs when things get really hot in the past and I suspect Alaphillipe will be the same.

My gut feeling we're going to get a Van der Poel show. He's smarting from the Brabantse Pijl and Gent Wevelgem, and wants to set the record straight. I'm predicting MVP to win solo, by a decent buffer, or totally decimate the race trying.

 

[ice&fire]

Apart from the risk that the rider in question might make an attack this time.

The general consensus is that climbing on the cobbles requires some magical powers he lacks, so he will be dropped...

Nibali and Valverde haven't quite been able to match the best classics specialists on the bergs when things get really hot in the past and I suspect Alaphillipe will be the same.

My gut feeling we're going to get a Van der Poel show. He's smarting from the Brabantse Pijl and Gent Wevelgem, and wants to set the record straight. I'm predicting MVP to win solo, by a decent buffer, or totally decimate the race trying.

Valverde was latched to GVA's wheel at the top of the Paterberg last year. IIRC they were 5th and 6th at that point. If you look carefully at the second picture in the Wvv's post you quote Valverde is fourth in the line lead by GVA.
Not able to ride away. Neither forwards nor backwards.

 

[cellardoor]

Alaphillippe just has to make it into the front group and then lead out the sprint. Aint nobody wants to try and pass Ala in a sprint after what we've seen recently.

 

[Wvv]

Valverde was latched to GVA's wheel at the top of the Paterberg last year. IIRC they were 5th and 6th at that point. If you look carefully at the second picture in the Wvv's post you quote Valverde is fourth in the line lead by GVA.
Not able to ride away. Neither forwards nor backwards.

At the top of the Pater GVA was 3rd in the wheel of MVDP (Bettiol solo in front) and Naesen was there too. Valverde was 5th with a few seconds behind, but did more than decent because he also had a small gap on the others.

 

[Red Rick]

The general consensus is that climbing on the cobbles requires some magical powers he lacks, so he will be dropped...


Valverde was latched to GVA's wheel at the top of the Paterberg last year. IIRC they were 5th and 6th at that point. If you look carefully at the second picture in the Wvv's post you quote Valverde is fourth in the line lead by GVA.
Not able to ride away. Neither forwards nor backwards.

The biggest issue for a guy like Alaphilippe is that the sprinting peloton in a cobbled race is an entirely different matter from the hillier classics. He's needs to be able to solo more than in Liege yet the terrain for him to get away and stay away is far worse. If all are together at the foot of the Kwaremont, the decisive move will typically start there and those that get away there don't get caught on the Pater or the subsequent flat.

IMO he has a chance mostly if Van Aert and Van der Poel mark each other out of the race.

 

[tobydawq]

The general consensus is that climbing on the cobbles requires some magical powers he lacks, so he will be dropped...


Valverde was latched to GVA's wheel at the top of the Paterberg last year. IIRC they were 5th and 6th at that point. If you look carefully at the second picture in the Wvv's post you quote Valverde is fourth in the line lead by GVA.
Not able to ride away. Neither forwards nor backwards.

I think they were 3rd and 4th. Only MvdP and Naesen (?) before them. And of course Bettiol.

Edit: I just checked, and yes, MvdP, Naesen and GVA got a small gap on the Paterberg but just before the top Valverde jumped up to them, forming a quartet that unfortunately didn't get away.

 

[Blanco]

MvdP, Naesen and GVA got a small gap on the Paterberg but just before the top Valverde jumped up to them, forming a quartet that unfortunately didn't get away.

Yeah, a real pity that group didn't broke away. I think they would've maybe even catch Bettiol, so Bala could contest for a podium spot at least.

 

[Volderke]

I did the finale today. It's bonedry.

There are still no barriers on Paterberg, so if that doesn't change, you can take the gutter from bottom to top, making it much easier to come out of the saddle.

 

[zlev11]

does anyone know where I can find the timetable for this race? or the predicted finish time? i'm trying to figure out what time to wake up at on Sunday

 

[Bonimenier]

does anyone know where I can find the timetable for this race? or the predicted finish time? i'm trying to figure out what time to wake up at on Sunday

Finish around 15:45 CET

 

[tobydawq]

I did the finale today. It's bonedry.

There are still no barriers on Paterberg, so if that doesn't change, you can take the gutter from bottom to top, making it much easier to come out of the saddle.

Surely, the organisers will put up barriers. They know this just as well as anyone.

 

[richwallone]

My top three, in this order: WVA, MVdP and Petersen.

Alaf will put up a valiant effort, with the usual theatrics of his, but will be nowhere near the top 5 on Sunday.

 

[cellardoor]

After his strong performance in G-W (I'd say only WvA and MVDP were stronger), I think Senechal might win. I know his won't be captain for QS, but I think that might afford him the opportunity to sneak under the radar.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

As for the Alaphilippe debate, I don't think his riding style suits any old school cobbles race.

His tendency to be slightly unbalanced, with a lot of side to side movement, when he is punching, is an immense handicap on the big cobbles IMO.

One of the things WvA and MvdP are good at, because of their cross background, is keeping the bike straight, even when applying maximum power.

The same can be said for many of the big TT guys, that are usually also good on cobbles.

 

[Velolover2]

Sven Nys argues that when climbing sitting down, most of the power comes from the lower back and WVA and MVP just have a lot more muscles and should be able to drop Alaphilippe on the Paterberg.

The best deadlifter wins?