Ronde van Vlaanderen - Tour des Flandres 2023, one day monument, April 2 (men's)

[Põhja Konn]

Pog will likely put the hammer down on a few hills to drop everyone but Vans. But how to get rid of them? Any surprising tactics? It's a good lesson of racing. WVA recently said in an interview that the difficulty against Pog is that he can keep repeating those hills time and time again (as he's lighter) to tire his opponents. While OTOH they (big boys) can be faster on first hills (when fresher). This makes sense but OTOH Vans are used to intense repeated intervals from CX or MTB races so those races are tailor made for them (length is the only thing that maybe weakens Wout though).

If E3 is anything to go by, Wout needs to be clearly stronger than he was there to withstand Pogs attacks with Ronde being significantly longer and having a harder finale. Getting rid of MVDP could be a tougher challenge for Pog, but he also looked stronger than him in E3, as WVA was able to close VDPs attacks quite quickly while struggling badly with ones of Pog. For me it's not at all out of the question that Pog can ride the other big two off his wheel this time around. And if he manages to crack those two, he is most likely gone for good.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If E3 is anything to go by, Wout needs to be clearly stronger than he was there to withstand Pogs attacks with Ronde being significantly longer and having a harder finale. Getting rid of MVDP could be a tougher challenge for Pog, but he also looked stronger than him in E3, as WVA was able to close VDPs attacks quite quickly while struggling badly with ones of Pog. For me it's not at all out of the question that Pog can ride the other big two off his wheel this time around. And if he manages to crack those two, he is most likely gone for good.

Duration and repeated effort can maybe favour Pog against WVA, maybe also MVP will want to get rid of Wout and cooperate with Pog. Even if they succeed then getting rid of MVP is very difficult (as last year showed).

 

[ice&fire]

UAE needs to think about playing the game of numbers and bring Soler, Almeida and Ayuso to the cobbled races.

 

[Volderke]

some observations while I'm very much looking forward to this race (and I will finally, after years of absence, watch the race along the parcours):

• WvA went deep on Taaienberg in E3, but don't forget he rode faster there than MvdP (he had to come from further in the peloton, and was in MvdP's wheel on the top). Pogacar had a much steadier effort and still had some snap left while WvA invested too much countering MvdP. Pogacar's double attack on Kwaremont was interluded with a short pause on the flatter cobbles. Yes, WvA lost contact on Kwaremont, but that was mainly because Pogacar and MvdP went all out before the village of Kwaremont, realizing that was an effort they couldn't hold until the top. So they didn't just allow WvA regain contact, but they had to, in order to try again on the last part. So based on this, I feel WvA's level is OK enough to follow (or at least don't lose too much meters at the top and get back on in time), he just needs to diesel his way up in his own tempo, without losing too much at the top.
• Pogacar needs to tire out MvdP and WvA, but he still needs something in the tank for Paterberg, where I feel he can really make the difference, and, like last year, if he doesn't, he unfortunately is lost as he will be beaten in the sprint.
• If there is a headwind in the last 10K, it's in favour of WvA or other 'worse' climbers who can diesel his way back to chase whoever dropped him on the climbs. But because of a headwind, WvA has less chance to win a sprint against a snappier MvdP, for example.
• Jumbo will need to keep the break in check. The break will, with the demise of Quickstep, have a better chance of going further.
• I hope Alaphilippe or any other rider can be in the mix. I am not in favour of an early split with the 3 protagonists from 50K out.

Preferred scenario: WvA or Pogacar solo (MvdP already won it enough times...!), or WvA chasing after last Paterberg, regaining contact and winning the sprint.
Most likely scenario: Pogacar with MvdP, WvA 30s back. Crash or mechanic for one of the favourites.

 

[gavia88]

Yes it has, and the race has become a lot 'cleaner' in the sense that the finale is so hard that its a lot easier for the best guys to dominate the race. Thats one of the reasons for the route change being really good, and the race has become better as a result as it essentially really starts with 55 to go at worst as well.

The downside is its less of a tactical race for the guys that cannot follow the best, and there's only one antidote for that. I guess you can try to anticipate between the climbs as well after the 2nd Kwaremont, but generally the best bet would be to attack before I think.

I still think it's a pity that RVV is not using the strength of why cobbled classics are so much fun to watch in comparison to other races, and that's the long final all those races have. Let explain a bit better, but first I want to make the point that I'm not one of them, who are still complaining that the finish is not in Ninove anymore. As the possibilities and option for a beautiful route in that area are way more limited than around Oudenaarde. Even Omloop nowadays shows that it's not always the most fun route to watch of the Flemish classics.

But the Ronde now bundles all the climbs that matter in the last 55k. That will still make it a longer final than 99% of the other races on the calendar, but for a cobble classic it's rather 'short'. Some observations:
-The route has a short but interesting part between Eikenberg and Molenberg, with cobbled hills and flat cobble sectors, but it's really far from the finish
-Not much love this year for the Haaghoek, Paddestraat and Lippenhovestraat
-The pre-final is actually not existing. Between Molenberg and 2nd time Kwaremont the route has not really 1 climb or a section of smaller obstacles that really should cause stress in the peloton (Berg ten Houte maybe the only exception, but cobbles on the climb are rather tame). Berendries, Valkenberg, Kanarieberg are all really nice hills, but will not cause the same nervousity as if the peloton is approaching cobbled hills like Molenberg, Taaienberg or the Muur. Those types of hills would make the pre-final more interesting as it's causing splits in the peloton by it's nature even without favorites riding them full out. You get a more dynamic type of racing. On the Berendries in this phase of the race you can just hide in the middle of the peloton.
-The final 55k are so bundled and hard, that favorites will be afraid to make earlier moves
-The final 55k are so hard that it's not really necessary for certain teams to make the race hard before neither
-The final 55k are so hard that there is almost no space for tactics, which are normally the fun part of all the cobble (semi-) classics as well
-The final last 12k are really ugly (not that there should be hills, but suddenly there aren't even supporters anymore) and the finish street is not really turning into a famous street for finishing a race neither.

 

[Volderke]

The current route is largely inspired by Wouter Vandenhaute (CEO of Flanders Classics), and unfortunately, he has more interest in making money than in a good race and probably hasn't got too much talent for how to create a race parcours.
He is very much fixated on people with money in VIP tents, and what better place to put such tents than on the Kwaremont (a relatively flat climb with loads of space for those tents). To maximise the VIP tent value-for-money, he ofcourse had to do Kwaremont multiple times.
He has an obsession with Kwaremont / Paterberg. In his view, these were too early in the parcours, and Oudenaarde is better looking (again for VIP's) than the more marginal city of Ninove.
Those final 12K are so painful to watch. Almost never there is anything happening there, besides consolidating positions and anticipating the sprint. It doesn't favour the brave lone rider who has to endure a last painful flat stretch of endless road where he can't hide as it allows the chasers to see far ahead, and it doesn't help the chasers to do late attacks for a podium spot.

 

[gavia88]

An example under the condition that they have to pass at least 2 times in the final the VIP area on the Kwaremont (I would rather skip that as well, but let try to keep the example realistic):

-Oude Kwaremont (cobbled hill) + Ronde van Vlaanderenstraat (monument + slightly uphill)
-Patersberg (cobbled hill)
(-Rotelenberg) (not classified hill) (they do it now as well, it's that little bump just before the Koppenberg)
-Koppenberg (cobbled hill)
-Mariaborrestraat + Steenbeekdries (cobbled hill + some cobbles downhill)
-Donderij (cobbles, but could be classified as cobbled hill as well)
-Taaienberg (cobbled hill)
-Eikenberg (cobbled hill)
-Wolvenberg (hill)
-Ruiterstraat (cobbles)
(-Hoge Dumpel) (not classified hill)
-Molenberg (cobbled hill)
(-Marlboroughstraat) (not classified hill) (well actually they classify it now, but it's not really difficult)
-Haaghoek (cobbles) (from the other side then normal) (uphill in the last part)
(-Koekoekstraat) (not classified hill)
-Jagerij (cobbles)
-Kergate (cobbles, but seriously uphill)
-Hollewg (cobbles) (only the last part immediately after Kerkgate)
-Berg ten Houte (cobbled hill)
-Oude Kruisberg/Hotond (cobbled hill)
-Oude Kwaremont (cobbled hill)
-Patersberg (cobbled hill)
-Varent (cobbles)
(-Langedreef) (not classified hill)
-Pikkelstraat of Holleweg (not classified hill)
-Petegemberg (not classified hill)
-Passage through centrum Oudenaarde and finish on the same place as currently but arriving from the other side (from Oudenaarde)

This makes it a final of about 115 kilometers. With the toughest section of the race between Oude Kwaremont and Eikenberg, with none-stop cobbled hills. This will make for an excellent pre-final that should be entertaining to watch. After that the route still offers a lot, some cobble section and (cobbled) hill that are really raceable. And the final with 4 important cobble climbs to decide the race Berg ten Houte till Patersberg. Than I changed a bit the final run into Oudenaarde. This part of the race is so ugly. The chances itself are nothing decisive, but more beautiful landscapewise and more tactical for the riders as well than currently and only slightly longer. They now just miss the cobbles of the Varent, they should be included, followed by some undulating terrain (not a single particular difficult climb) on smaller roads, followed by a passage through the centre of Oudenaarde (much more beautifull than the empty roads without suporters in the final now) and the same finish but coming from the other side.

If a second visit on the Kwaremont is not necessary, they could variate as follow (first Kwaremont in the list above, fully riding, the second time only till Kwaremontplein, followed by Kalkhoveberg just before the Patersberg)

 

[dobrien]

For me it's not at all out of the question that Pog can ride the other big two off his wheel this time around. And if he manages to crack those two, he is most likely gone for good.

This is what I'm predicting for Sunday; a brilliant Pog solo win. Wout's form will come to full boil for Roubaix but I think both he and MVDP will be just that little bit short on the last Pater.

The one fly I see in this soup is LaPorte; clearly on form and if he's there to help chase in the finale with the predicted headwind that would be huge.

This one should be very interesting; full gas from a long way out.

 

[Berflamand]

Since Soudal Quick-Step clearly aren't favorites anymore, I'd like to see Tim Declercq in the early breakaway.

 

[dobrien]

-The final last 12k are really ugly (not that there should be hills, but suddenly there aren't even supporters anymore) and the finish street is not really turning into a famous street for finishing a race neither.

This is my biggest complaint by far about the course; the air just seems to go right out of this race as soon as they crest the Pater for the last time. I get that $$$ is driving the course design but the finale would be vastly better in my opinion if there was maybe 5-7k at most to the finish. The current finish is just ugly and punishes the lone attacker if there happens to be a group chasing behind; absolutely unworthy of one of the greatest races on the calendar.

Actually, this is my complaint about the Roubaix finale as well after the race leaves the Carrefour de l'Arbre; in my view the course needs one more 3.5ish/4 star sector instead of the anemic Gruson/Hem sectors. 2016 for example, good as it was, imho should have had a very different winner. But that is for a different thread of course.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

A team which relies on strength in numbers and which doesn't necessarily have the absolute best riders are bound to have a downturn in their fortunes at some point. Especially when their top riders aren't on their best form. Then the second line has less freedom as well. Asgreen is not in the kind of form which will paralyse everyone if Lampaert sneaks away.

It also doesn't help that Jumbo has maybe the most formidable classics team assembled in many years.

This makes sense but clearly the situation is far worse. They are not even in the 2nd group of 30 riders anymore. That can't be explained neither by Evenepoel not Asgreen's lack of form.

 

[Blanco]

Van Der Poel with his Alpecin squad will neutralize Jumbo's attempts of sending strong riders up the road, and will drop the hammer some 40-50 km from the line (Koppenberg, Taaienberg?), being followed by Van Aert and Pogacar.
Pogacar will be forcing on Kwaremont dropping Van Aert in the process. He'll try the same on Paterberg but Van Der Poel will drop the bomb there and go solo to the finish.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Van Der Poel with his Alpecin squad will neutralize Jumbo's attempts of sending strong riders up the road, and will drop the hammer some 40-50 km from the line (Koppenberg, Taaienberg?), being followed by Van Aert and Pogacar.
Pogacar will be forcing on Kwaremont dropping Van Aert in the process. He'll try the same on Paterberg but Van Der Poel will drop the bomb there and go solo to the finish.

If so, then different lvl when on form confirmed

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Matij Mohoric will win in spectacular fashion and cement his place as a better classic rider than Belgian Pozzato

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Oude Kwaremont (cobbled hill)
-Patersberg (cobbled hill)
-Varent (cobbles)
(-Langedreef) (not classified hill)
-Pikkelstraat of Holleweg (not classified hill)
-Petegemberg (not classified hill)
-Passage through centrum Oudenaarde and finish on the same place as currently but arriving from the other side (from Oudenaarde)

This doesn't work because it forces you to take a level railway crossing (on a far busier line than the one crossed in the Stationsberg descent) after Langedreef, the first overpass west of Oudenaarde is all the way at Tiegemberg. There are barely any routes into Oudenaarde without a level railway crossing unless you approach from the east.

For that reason, my preferred Ronde finale would be Oude Kwaremont - Paterberg - Kortekeer - Mariaborrestraat-Stationsberg - Eikenberg - Jagerij - Molenberg - Kerkgate, which still allows you to pass through the centre of Oudenaarde to the finish.

 

[Blanco]

Matij Mohoric will win in spectacular fashion and cement his place as a better classic rider than Belgian Pozzato

It's really hard to believe that Van Aert hardly enters top 10 of the active classics riders, palmares vise.

 

[search]

Van Der Poel with his Alpecin squad will neutralize Jumbo's attempts of sending strong riders up the road

that sounds like a lot of work for Kragh and Vermeersch. Don't really think anyone else from them will be left in the ~2nd half of the race.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

that sounds like a lot of work for Kragh and Vermeersch. Don't really think anyone else from them will be left in the ~2nd half of the race.

Based on how he did yesterday, it's a bit odd that Hermans isn't racing this one. Would certainly last longer than half their actual squad.

 

[search]

Based on how he did yesterday, it's a bit odd that Hermans isn't racing this one. Would certainly last longer than half their actual squad.

the Ardennes are his main goal, so he is going to Itzulia, which kinda makes sense, I guess. He certainly did well yesterday, but DdV with its paved climbs is also better suited to unexperienced (on the cobbles) climbers/puncheurs like him.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

The biggest question is which Movistar rider will be part of the early breakaway; Jacobs, Norsgaard or Lazkano?

 

[Netserk]

I think the expectation of others that MvdP and Pogi will drop the hammer, will in turn mean that the duo won't make a move before Koppenberg or later. A bit similar to 2014 when all eyes were on Cancellara.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's really hard to believe that Van Aert hardly enters top 10 of the active classics riders, palmares vise.

You very well know he hands out most of his big wins to less fortunate riders, like Laporte and Van der Poel.

 

[the asian]

Gilbert's the only Belgian winner in the last 10 years.

Recent history not on WVA's side.

Hoping for a Pogacar win as that would undoubtably cement him in the category of riders of the past like Merckx and Hinault who could win it all.

With the form they are in, tough to look past the big 3.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm not quite sure this will turn out as a big battle among the three top riders.
Jumbo was quite unlucky in E3, with Benoot suffering a mechanical and Van Baarle crashing out, both in crucial moments of the race. Laporte has also looked incredibly strong the past couple of races, so Jumbo might have the numbers to put both Pog and VdP in difficult positions.
But if team strength doesn't become too big a factor I can see Pogacar dropping them all on the Kwaremont and win solo.

 

[Escarabajo]

I hope Pogi wins it one day. But now the suprise effect is over. I was astonished at last year's RVV when I saw Pogi attacking along a line of riders that seemed to be just still. By now everyone knows how dangerous he is and what his resources are.

So you think the others were surprised when Pogi attacked last year? maybe the place but surprised? no way