Saturday, June 30 - Tour de France, Prologue: Liege - Liege, 6,4 km

[El Pistolero]

I'm going for Tony, but could just as easily be Wiggins, Sagan or Cancellara.

 

[The Hitch]

Can i just say, how great it is to start gts with a prologues again, after what was 4 in a row that were not, 5 if you count the giro on a technicality.

 

[Trunnions]

Would Wiggo even want to be in Yellow so early?

I think not, let Omega take the strain.

 

[The Hitch]

Would Wiggo even want to be in Yellow so early?

I think not, let Omega take the strain.

He will want every second he can get.

 

[ElChingon]

One tactic that can be used is to let the other GC favorite to win the Prologue and then make sure the first week breaks do not succeed and the team with the Yellow jersey will have to bear the work of the Yellow jersey. As in let Wiggo win it and then make sure its all sprint stage with the Yellow en-tow in week one.

They need to start putting the favorites in the hole week one not wait till the last week.

 

[TechnicalDescent]

Would Wiggo even want to be in Yellow so early?

I think not, let Omega take the strain.

He may not want it, but if you're just the best then may as well take it and say thank you.

 

[The Joker]

I'll say Cancellara 1st
Sagan 2nd
EBH 3rd.
Wiggins best of the gc contenders...

 

[TechnicalDescent]

I don't think Fab will even be top three. Got a bad feeling for him this year.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

One tactic that can be used is to let the other GC favorite to win the Prologue and then make sure the first week breaks do not succeed and the team with the Yellow jersey will have to bear the work of the Yellow jersey. As in let Wiggo win it and then make sure its all sprint stage with the Yellow en-tow in week one.

They need to start putting the favorites in the hole week one not wait till the last week.

How exactly do you make the other team work by pulling back breakaways yourself?

 

[Jan the Man]

Favourites-

***** Cancellara

**** Martin, Wiggins

*** Sagan, Engoulvent

** EBH, Larsson, Millar

* LLS, Grivko, Lancaster, Klöden,

 

[Sasquatch]

Would Wiggo even want to be in Yellow so early?

I think not, let Omega take the strain.

Take yellow, then don't defend. If other sprint teams want to win, they will chase down breaks. Get a couple of riders up the road and leave it to the other teams, give up yellow, and you still keep your position amongst the GC guys without doing any work to defend it. The only work you do is make sure the right break gets away, such as groups of 2 or 3 people and then cruise and leave it in the hands of Liquigas, Omega Pharma, GreenEdge, Saxo, FDJ, Garmin and a few other teams to reel in the breakaway.

 

[theyoungest]

Take yellow, then don't defend. If other sprint teams want to win, they will chase down breaks. If not, non threatening breaks will take it and you still keep your position amongst the GC guys without doing any work to defend it.

Most sponsors would be pretty interested in keeping the yellow jersey, I assume Sky is no different. "Brit currently leading biggest race in the world", and all that jazz.

 

[BoxCoppi]

Favourites-

***** Cancellara

**** Martin, Wiggins

*** Sagan, Engoulvent

** EBH, Larsson, Millar

* LLS, Grivko, Lancaster, Klöden,

How about Chavanel? Recent French ITT champ and #5 in CD ITT, #8 in CD prologue, and #6 in PN 9km ITT. Good performances in the classics as well. He seems to have improved his focus on the ITT and looks really strong. What's your take on him?

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Most sponsors would be pretty interested in keeping the yellow jersey, I assume Sky is no different. "Brit currently leading biggest race in the world", and all that jazz.

Sky will be working no matter if they have yellow or not. That is just the disadvantage of taking a sprinter too.

 

[Jan the Man]

How about Chavanel? Recent French ITT champ and #5 in CD ITT, #8 in CD prologue, and #6 in PN 9km ITT. Good performances in the classics as well. He seems to have improved his focus on the ITT and looks really strong. What's your take on him?

I originally had 15 favourites and had him in there but got rid of him when it came down to top 10.

It would not surprise me at all to see him in the Top 10 instead of someone like Klöden for example.

It would surprise me if he managed to finish in the top 3 as I think there is a gulf between Canc, Wiggins and Martin and the rest on this type of TT specialist course. If it was more stop start Sagan would be up there due to his power and ability to accelerate but I believe this is for the purists.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

How about Chavanel? Recent French ITT champ and #5 in CD ITT, #8 in CD prologue, and #6 in PN 9km ITT. Good performances in the classics as well. He seems to have improved his focus on the ITT and looks really strong. What's your take on him?

He had a back operation this winter which means he can again have a good position on the ITT bike, like at the beginning of his career (and unlike 2010/2011). I don't think he focuses specifically on the ITT this year (his improved results come from his back operation) and besides he was always poor in TDF prologues so don't expect him to feature even though he has the potential.

 

[BoxCoppi]

I originally had 15 favourites and had him in there but got rid of him when it came down to top 10.

It would not surprise me at all to see him in the Top 10 instead of someone like Klöden for example.

It would surprise me if he managed to finish in the top 3 as I think there is a gulf between Canc, Wiggins and Martin and the rest on this type of TT specialist course. If it was more stop start Sagan would be up there due to his power and ability to accelerate but I believe this is for the purists.

Thanks. Also a good point regarding Sagan. Not really a technical prologue for him to fully excel in. But he should be able to catch a few points for his green jersey

@ Evans: Cheers. Didn't know about his back operation. Lets hope he can do a similar performance as he did in 2010 in the Tour.

 

[Frosty]

Most sponsors would be pretty interested in keeping the yellow jersey, I assume Sky is no different. "Brit currently leading biggest race in the world", and all that jazz.

Yeah, he may want to win overall but banking on everything going your way later in the race can be unwise; his crash last year demonstrates that. I think that if he got yellow then he'd want to keep it for a few days before allowing things to slip.

 

[Tom T.]

1. Cance
2. Wiggins
3-6. Some combo of Sagan, Martin, EBH, Cadel
7-10. Not sure but I see surprise appearances by Froome, Levi and maybe even Vino (as his "program" kicks in).

 

[BillytheKid]

Top 5 :
Sagan
Cancellara
Larsson
Wiggins
Martin (Tony)

I'll favor Cancellara, but a coin toss between these. The two 180 degree turns may play into more than not. Over such short distant there can be no errors in these. Sagan and Cancellara would be my picks as the best in that department.

 

[Trunnions]

Sky will be working no matter if they have yellow or not. That is just the disadvantage of taking a sprinter too.

Good point.

I think Wiggo taking Yellow then deliberately losing it would infuriate sponsors, and insult the race itself, so the fact they have the likely sprint winner, helps make the decision for them.

So it's Wiggo in Yellow all the first week.

See, they don't need Yates and Brails, just come to CN for the Team tactics.

 

[Trunnions]

Yeah, he may want to win overall but banking on everything going your way later in the race can be unwise; his crash last year demonstrates that. I think that if he got yellow then he'd want to keep it for a few days before allowing things to slip.

Another good point!

Brails has certainly understood how LA rode 30K Tour miles with only one off.
The hard lesson last year will have driven the point home, so there's extra incentive to take the race initiative

 

[Trunnions]

The comments about an Englishman leading the Tour are valid.
IF that happens, interest in the UK will go off the scale.

Think back to what the Ashes winning Test matches were like.

We invent the finest sports, but are useless at them, so on the rare occasions we have even a hint of a rising star the Sceptred Isle goes bonkers.

Mr. Murdoch's media network would ensure it.

 

[Jericho]

Good point.

I think Wiggo taking Yellow then deliberately losing it would infuriate sponsors, and insult the race itself, so the fact they have the likely sprint winner, helps make the decision for them.

So it's Wiggo in Yellow all the first week.

See, they don't need Yates and Brails, just come to CN for the Team tactics.

Is it that hard to hold Yellow in the flats? You know the sprint teams will want to help and it makes no sense for Wiggins to not take time when he can. So if he somehow wins yellow, just work with the sprinter team's. I have a hard time seeing a breakaway working.

 

[FellOff]

Surely if Da BradWig want to win dat race, he got to attack the block, innit? Even if it only be a few second, he need it.
Tactics: attacktix, yagetme? Allow it.